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How a short/gamma squeeze on Tilray is causing the ENTIRE cannabis market to moon and how to avoid becoming a bag holder when this all comes crashing down

How a short/gamma squeeze on Tilray is causing the ENTIRE cannabis market to moon and how to avoid becoming a bag holder when this all comes crashing down
Obligatory: SIR, THIS IS A CASINO. This isn't financial advice in any way shape or form.
TLDR: This run is going to end with the cannabis stocks back down 50-80% or more from the levels they are at. $CRLBF is the real play here for the smart players that want USA exposure to the legislation. We just like the stocks now, not later.
Ok, listen up normies.
Yeah I'm talking to the newbies specifically because the OGs here already know everything I'm about to share, but your insufferable groupthink and movement mentality shit pissed me off enough to make a post. Don't post DD if you have no clue. Ask someone for help and take your ridicule until someone comes along to help you.
I used to post weekly DD on Sunday here a couple of years ago before one of you literally contacted my wife IRL. Not even kidding. So I made a new account. This is my first contribution back and I'm going to try and ensure some of you don't blow your chance at massive gains here by explaining what is actually going on.
CNBC and anybody telling you that this is just 'momentum' and 'sentiment' is lying to you. The hedge funds are playing these right along with us. Don't ask me for proof, this isn't Twitter. Reasons why they are playing with us:
  1. When there is money to be made, hedge funds and HFT funds are there before you
  2. The floats are so small on these they can take sizable positions on both sides and stand to have massive gains, all the while handing you guys the bags.
That's all you need to know.
So in response to all you posting "real DD" with why these companies are the best and you're going to hold to the moon and never sell:
I'm over it -- I can tell instantly how uninformed you are when I read some poorly thought out DD about why CGC or TLRY or APHA is a long term play because they're talking about USA legislation. These are Canadian companies. Get your head back on straight. You're here for the trade and the bet, not for the fundamentals, and if that's it, then fine, ignore the rest of this post and pick an exit, and if not, read on so you don't hold more bags.
This place has never been one to care for fundamentals, but let me talk some sense into you so you can post some gain porn and I can tell you to fuck off instead of you guys all yelling "MaNiPuLaTiOn ShOrT LaDdErS"
Let's take a look at some of today's gainers:
(changed tickers for automod avoidance)
$USMJay - Penny stock, worth absolute nothing for a reason
$SNDL - Up ridiculous amount, have a billion shares outstanding, just diluted them all the other day
$TeeRTeeC - Terra Tech, they grow weed, from all indications, do it poorly
$OhGeeEye - lol
$HUGE - Probably the only one in the lot worth a YOLO on the chance they get an acquisition like GW Pharma did but they don't have the same product portfolio or prospects GW has.

Now, if you're simply playing this to get in and get out, great for you. The people saying (and believing) "$SNDL $10 EOW! HOLD THE LINE" and stuff like this are just absolutely brand new normies and are clueless, do not listen to them. If you yolo'd on cheap calls in Dec/Jan, congrats, take your gains and don't be like the $GME bagholders.
If you're investing in any of the names I just posted above, expect any money you put in to at some point in the next 12 months be worth approximately 20% of what it is worth now. Literally. They're far worse than the main bunch (CGC, CRON, ACB, TLRY, APHA) but the main bunch is nothing to write home about either.

THIS IS WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING:

Tilray had 40% short interest. It's not $GME level, but it's pretty high. When the stock crested $40 it really started taking off, why though? Notice this week's FD option chain:

https://preview.redd.it/kyqeiwljeug61.png?width=917&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c1b48e12518515f09582289bd7f8a4f47a09629
Tilray has a 95M share float, those 42 calls represent roughly 1.5M shares held as a hedge just by themselves. Previous to this run up, that represents roughly 5% of the average daily volume of the stock, BY ITSELF. Those are shares that until Monday can be considered removed from the float because they're held as a hedge. They may get loaned out to be shorted, but that will only speed up the squeeze here.
The important part: Today (2/10/21) the stock fell hard after open down to around 44 and found massive support all the way back to up 66. The most sold front week call? $40/$42 strikes. Premium when I screen shotted this? $22.20. Stocks going to pin above $60 for awhile likely, unless people are stupid enough to buy the OTM calls, in which case, it may squeeze itself higher.
Smart hedge funds are going to pile into this, sell you the calls, shove the price up to keep selling you calls, then watch them all evaporate worthless in one of the future weeks in the chain, dump back the shares to help shove the price down, oh and did I mention? They shorted the top.

https://preview.redd.it/ivy78woneug61.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=0604940c09126dc6d5b96a9cc5f17e4013ae5d9d
It's just another plain old stock acting as a derivative of the option chain gamma squeeze. That's it, with a bit of short squeeze thrown in there and a WHOLE BUNCH of WSB fomo. The shorts are covering and pushing up the volume, likely re-shorting on the way up, and then you have WSB fomo'ing in to round out the total: a massive volume of 200 million shares today. You've got people that think this thing will skyrocket to 500+ (and it may) but the stakes get higher and higher each ladder up you take and the moves become more violent and more likely it comes all the way back down in short time the quicker it goes up.
Might it get there? Sure. But be prepare to take profits when it does because...

ITS CALLED MEAN REVERSION. THIS CANT GO ON FOREVER.

Not to mention, the moves you are seeing are in completely overvalued companies, with horrible fundamentals, and poor prospects.
Oh what's that? CGC got some CBD treats for Martha, seems fitting that something ill is going on in this industry considering she went to prison for insider trading. If the dog treats get you excited about the stock, Martha belongs here more than you do.
200M shares today means people who were long term bag holders cashed out and the shares have turned over the float two times in two days. That also means the shorts have turned over and are now short again. It means the HFT firms are feasting on all of you. It means Citadel is making a pile on the spreads.
What to take away: An amount of shares equal to the entire float has changed hands, or in other words, fewer reason for people to bag hold. Fewer people that have to hedge. Fewer people that have to cover. Fewer people to help stabilize any of these upper price tiers, and keep the price stable by holding, and more reason it's going to collapse sooner (or later).
But, this IS a casino after all...

Let's see what happened with TLRY last time this happened (oh, you're new here? Yeah, this isn't the first time):


https://preview.redd.it/p652mvgreug61.png?width=587&format=png&auto=webp&s=d95f2b0ccf946717859bffb28601dfd29e999e0b
Looks eerily familiar to something else recently. Last time this occurred it traded between $100 and $300 in a single week timeframe.
For those of you that are new: THIS IS NOT NORMAL. STOCKS DO NOT ALWAYS DO THIS. You are in the infancy of a new age of trading, but people still know, fundamentals matter a whole lot more than everyone is leading on, and these valuations are getting extremely overextended.
Eventually, in the first squeeze Tilray bled off until the pandemic hit and it piled down to $2.43 a share. At $2.43/share, I would have bought it. Even at $10/12/14. At these levels? You're just ultimately out of touch but I look forward to the loss porn.
So in short, again: Sir, this is a casino.

Timeline of events, and how to not become a bagholder:
  1. $APHA earnings are good, stocks pop a bit, and level off
  2. Legislators pull a pump and dump since they probably have calls and say planning on some laws regarding changing the schedule of cannabis (notice: we will likely NOT get outright legalization, just re-scheduling)
  3. $CGC earnings are actually awful, with the caveat they have profitability on the horizon
  4. $TLRY gets a UK deal
  5. $TLRY starts going insane - since $APHA is a reverse merger with a .81 value share to share, it starts pumping, people start buying the lower priced cannabis stuff and entire sector starts moving on "overall strength"
  6. There's no strength, there's a gamma squeeze backed by investor momentum, and a short squeeze on Tilray.
  7. This is going to come back down violently then plateau out like GME and pull a slow bleed the rest of the way back down, just like the second graph I posted. There is no fundamental or even POSSIBILITY of better fundamentals immediately on US legislation. The cost to enter the US market will most definitely cause capex and goodwill capital outflows, and set back their profitability since there are established MSO's in the USA already. The USA opening the market to these companies will only further degrade the actual balance sheets/income statements and slow down profits and you know what institutions and shareholders like? Yep. Profits.
  8. Finally, how to not become a bag holder: The market can stay irrational way, way, way longer than you expect. So this may go on for a bit, but refer back to 7. It's coming back down eventually, set expectations and pick your exit, or start to shave off your position as it goes up and let a portion of it run. Eventually, you have to sell to actually realize a gain, don't forget that. Once you do, close the chart, remove it from your watchlist, check back in on it in a month if you want to get back in when you have a clear head.
The Canadian operators are literally the last companies I'd play off a US legislation play, and one of the only ones worth owning in $APHA for the arbitrage play on the shares. But if Tilray comes crashing back down, $APHA will as well along with all of them, and you have to hope you lose a lot less on $APHA crashing than you'll make on the arbitrage between the share price.
THIS IS ALL JUST "SENTIMENT" BASED YOLOING BY THIS SUB. It has probably driven uneducated retail into the trades also - who will also become bag holders.

Let me put this in big letters for those of you that can only read big font and use crayons:

NONE OF THESE COMPANIES HAVE REAL USA MARKET EXPOSURE, THEY ARE CANADIAN COMPANIES. THEY DO NOT HAVE MARKET POSITIONING AND ARE NOT POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US LEGALIZATION.

IF ANYTHING: IT WILL HURT THEIR BOTTOM LINE AND SET BACK EARNINGS BECAUSE OF CAPEX AND CASH OUTFLOWS TO GET A POSITION IN THE MARKET AND SOME OF THEM WILL GO OUT OF BUSINESS BECAUSE OF IT, WHILE OTHERS WILL FALL OUT OF PROFITIABILITY TO ENTER THE MARKET AND COMPETE WITH THE REAL PLAYERS.

Who are the real players? (Cresco $CRLBF and Curaleaf $CURLF - do your own DD or wait for a post next week\***************)*

Conclusion: Nobody should plan on holding these long term. Don't let someone else hand you bags like I did this morning at open on the pop unless you plan to hand your bags off and find the next play.
You likely will not time the top. Pick a place you're ready to exit the trade, exit the trade or slowly shave your position, close the graphs and don't fomo back in. Just be done with the trade afterwards. You're likely not a cannabis multi millionaire and will not be one, unless you were loaded to the brim with low cost calls from last summefall or unless you literally yolo'd $10M into one of these a few weeks ago, and in that case, you belong here, congrats on your gains and fuck you.
THIS IS A SECTOFOMO SQUEEZE. AND IT WILL END. THIS IS NOT SENTIMENT AND CNBC IS TROLLING US WITH IT LIKE WE HAVE THE POWER.
And if you think WE are the ones driving the price up, the hedge funds are definitely watching and playing and they can bring these down at will at almost any time they want. You're holding a lit molotov, the only question is: will you throw it before it blows up?
The rest of you? Plz fuck off with you 20 shares @ $2 on Sundial, fuck off with the "HOLD THE LINE SNDL $10 EOW", fuck off with your fomo, and fuck off with the "movement" and "lets push this to the sky" stuff and most importantly don't post DD if you have zero clue what is going on.
You know what "lets push this to the sky" sounds like? Market manipulation. We're not in this together, I literally handed one of you a bag to hold this morning and even if they go up for another month, eventually, that bags gonna be heavy and I ain't coming back for it. I ain't tipping you either.
These prices are insanely high for these companies. The multiples are out of control, and if you buy in at these levels, well, best of luck, I hope it works out for you. I'm fighting the fomo of extended gains, and will continue to put my money elsewhere.

SIR, THIS IS A CASINO.

Positions: I had the meme stocks like you literally all of them minus ACB and CGC. I took gains and bought 500 shares of Cresco prob increasing to 1,000 tomorrow, and kept the rest off the table to pay my wife's boyfriend's rent.
Disclaimer: I have Tilray puts I'm prepared to average down on and diamond hand like a real boss because this is coming back down.


Edit: You know what I forgot to add? Some of the biggest holders, the cannabis ETFs and funds, you know what they did today? They trimmed their positions. And they will continue to do so because of fiduciary responsibility and when you de-concentrate shares into the retail's hands, the moves will get more and more finnicky and more and more violent.
Edit 2: Some normie tried calling me out like I never saw this trade coming or am a hedge shill, https://imgur.com/a/asAVkiC - I had thousands of shares, these are just the trades from this month, and I'm not advocating a buy, I sold mostly all of them this morning except for adding Cresco back in. You want the gain numbers? You do the math, I'm not your math tutor, I sold like 6 minutes after open for most of them. I have Tilray puts for next week and will be buying a few months out at various strikes as it continues to climb.
Yeah, I think these are coming back down in price sooner rather than later, that isn't extraordinary information for a common sense person.
Edit 3: I'm getting piles of messages from people who used to follow my DD back in 2018/2019. Yes, it's the real SoRefreshing, proof: https://imgur.com/a/Pn5LqCe
Edit 4: Eh don't request me with "What should I do with XX" be a big adult grown up and decide your own risk tolerance and exits. I responded to the first 10 or so. Now I have 100. I can't. I disabled chat messages.
Edit 5: jesus with the awards go buy TSLA calls this is WSB not fb/twtr disclaimer: have TSLA calls
Edit 6: Oh look, they're pinning it around the $42 strike. Go figure.
submitted by OhSoRefreshing to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

We need to talk about NOK

We need to talk about NOK

Feb 4, mid-market: Thank you everyone for your support. I really don't know what to say. The company keeps getting pounded because GME is having a sell-off, which doesn't make any sense. But that's the market for you. It doesn't always make sense.
I still believe 2021 will be a big year for Nokia, although it doesn't look like there is any way we'll manage the crazy play anymore. Still, it was nice to see something that was impossible become possible, even if it was for only a few days.
And remember, we can still do it any day. All it takes is for us to work together. If you want. Make up your own mind.
I'm still holding. NOK will recover from this. Fair value is at least 4.81, and way more when 5G really gets going. So if you can, I would buy some more now. You'll thank me later for the tip. It may not be the most exciting play, but it is what investing is all about. Slow and steady growth that compounds to make a big change.
One of these days I'll be able to post again, when the mods lift the restrictions on new posts and things get a little less crazy around here. When I post again about NOK, I'll post the link here too. Thanks everyone!
Feb 4 premarket: Earnings out! They beat expectations a bit, their revenue was a little smaller than expected. Overall, good quarter, good year. Here it is: https://www.nokia.com/system/files/2021-02/nokia_results_2020_q4.pdf
Feb 2, end of day: It's getting pretty crazy out there, but here's what you should know. The NOK chart is following the GME chart. It's got way more shares so the bumps and dips are more stable, but that's the main trend.
What that means: GME has no underlying value at this level. It is a gamble on the short squeeze. It might pay off, or it might not. If people panic sell like yesterday, it won't.
NOK is very different. It has underlying value. So if someone dumps it below its target price, the best thing to do is just to buy and wait for the value to go down. Thursday NOK reveals its earnings, and they are likely to be good based on what Ericsson revealed. Ericsson is one of its main competitors and a very similar company currently trading at twice the NOK price.
Feb 1, end of day: Told you it was a value share! Still trading at target, still low risk.
Either dumping has stopped, or normies are piling in because of the results. Either way good news, hope you made some money today!Vol today 190m, still way above average. Normal average 30m before we changed it lol. That means since Wednesday over 2bn shares have changed hands. Hope you got em!
Ericsson (NOK competitor) results suggest NOK will report good numbers this week, NOK upped to BUY on market watch: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nokia-upped-to-buy-after-ericsson-results-2021-02-01
Unless my math is retarded (which it is cos ahmsodumb), if everyone (7m) on this sub spends $3000 at current price ($4.55) we BUY THE FLOAT. The more they keep dumping, the more shares we get cheap. Think about it.EDIT: buying the ENTIRE float is NOT the point of this play. I know share price goes up when supply is restricted, just read the play. This is just an example of what happens when they dump a value share on millions of retail investors.
BLACKROCK IS IN PEOPLE: https://fintel.io/so/us/nok/blackrock
Robin hood increases NOK allowance to 2000 shares for next week (still any allowance is CRAZY because it's a VALUE SHARE THAT HASN'T BUBBLED) https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/changes-due-to-recent-market-volatility/?fbclid=IwAR2SK9VQOI_eBgBF0SK4-R1eQjBkSAe3sd6KMwSBaCPmz38e5cc8siRdhEY
You dump a VALUE STOCK on me and think I'm in danger?

Added new summary (30 Jan), and Q&A.
FIRST OFF: This post is not financial advice or anything except the rant of some idiot retard who is an idiot. I tell you straight up that there is a normal investment side to the NOK play (STILL MEANS RISK, which YOU will have to decide!) and that there is a CRAZY side that is PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE. If you want to play the crazy play then you’re also a crazy retard idiot just like me.
I don’t know shit, I just look at graphs and go WOW. Do your own due diligence, I am not a financial advisor. Don’t ask me if you should buy, I don’t know, can you afford to? Are you comfortable with the risks? I don’t know these things. You do.
NOK PLAY:
Here’s how it works. YOU DECIDE if you want to take part.
1.It’s not a short squeeze like GME. Get that out of your head.
2.It’s a value/momentum play. The value part is just normal granny&grampa investing. See a good company going cheap, buy and hold. Tell your mom, dad, granny and grampa, cousins, relatives, friends.
3.The momentum part is the crazy part, and if it works the share will SKYROCKET as long as YOU DON’T SELL. GME is the biggest short squeeze in history, the NOK play could be the biggest value buy in history.
  1. The beauty of it is that it works because Wall St is dumping NOK irrationally. That’s why the price is going down (slowly). They think they’re attacking us and slowly winning, but they’re giving us a value share cheap = their money, our pockets. By the time they realize what we did, it will be too late.
  2. Don’t panic, and keep buying the dumps (if you think the company has value), and if we hold the line you could see a miracle.
3310 HANDS

Value Part (crazy part in Q&A):
The company is healthy, has good financials, it’s a market leader in 5G (it’s main competitors are Huawei and Ericsson, they have about the same market share share of 5G) a lot of potential to be the company that builds 5G for a large part of the world. NOK is currently trading at a standard price for the value it holds. It is not a bubble.
Here’s Nokia’s 5G contracts: https://www.nokia.com/networks/5g/5g-contracts/
Here’s Bloomberg shitting bricks that we’ve realized that Nokia is a value bet: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-28/gamestop-may-be-a-reddit-wallstreetbets-game-but-nokia-sure-isn-t
Nokia also just unveiled new 1tb tech, the thing AFTER 5G. First on the world. They have it, they’re showing the world it works. Here is their press release from Wednesday: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/nokia-and-elisa-push-network-boundaries-with-worlds-first-1t-deployment-2021-01-27
They are so trusted that NASA got them to build a cell network on the MOON. Literally. If you’re NASA, would you hire your retard uncle Earl to build cell towers on the moon? No, you hire someone who CAN ACTUALLY DO IT. Imagine what it takes to build something really big and complicated on the moon? Now imagine who’s the likely guy who can do it. That’s right, NOKIA. Here they are, going to the moon: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/
If the Huawei 5G war continues, who do you think US and Europe is going to back, especially since NOK already has the next tech, owns a bunch of patents, is from FINLAND that has never tried to take over the world and has a brand that EVERYONE who lived in 2000s remembers?
Here’s a guy who’s been doing the numbers for a while now in case you want to see them: https://www.reddit.com/useJimming/comments/l7f6ua/part_iv_option_chain_analysis_on_nok_and_why_you/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf I don’t know him, I don’t know the numbers as well, but looks pretty good to me. Amazing due diligence. But what do I know, I’m an idiot. So is he. So are you. We’re all fucking retards, just ask Wall Street. I poked myself in the same eye twice yesterday. We’re “dumb money”. They have other names for us too.
So, worst case, you just bought into a good company at a fair value. If the crazy play doesn’t work, you just hold on to them and let them become the world leader in 5G. Unlike GME (NOT SAYING SELL!), NOK will not fall 99%. Or if it does, I'M BUYING THAT SHIT because if a HEALTHY COMPANY FALLS 99% you make some CRAZY MONEY on that when it bounces back.
Q&A
Q: You retards were tricked by bots to buying NOK, there’s no short
A: This just full on doesn’t get what the play is about. IT IS NOT A SHORT SQUEEZE. THIS IS NOT GME RINSE REPEAT. GME IS A DIFFERENT PLAY. NOK IS A VALUE PLAY. How many more ways can I say it? Not sure. How many more do I have to?
Q: Stop taking attention away from GME you retards
A: Nobody is saying sell your GME. Nobody is saying that. GME is too expensive for a lot of people, and GME is VERY RISKY and NOK has genuine value behind it. If the NOK play works, those people who couldn’t afford GME can still get on & get rich. If it doesn’t, they most likely still make money on a good company.
Q: This play is impossible / crazy / it’ll never work / there are too many shares you retards
A: This is ALMOST true. This play WAS impossible until 1/27/2021. That is why nobody has EVER tried anything like this. But it’s NOT impossible anymore. Look at this graph. Look at it. See that spike? What the fuck is that? I’ll tell you my fellow autistic space boot packin 3310 using NOKSTER.

https://preview.redd.it/v473xl00ghe61.png?width=2182&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf5aac455156dbadb919b80afacb5232af0a05b5
That spike was them running out of shares for half an hour. Trade was stopped until they could find more, to avoid an artificial spike in the price.
Proof? Look at the volumes. A small sale (red) causes a small dip. Two small buys cause a MASSIVE SPIKE. They ran out, and had to call their friends to liquidate more shares so the price wouldn’t skyrocket "artificially".
But that’s IMPOSSIBLE for NOK. NOK has 5bn shares. Nokia should be much more stable because it has so many shares, having a crazy demand spike is crazy. I saw it, and fell off my chair and since I’m such a retard it took me an hour to get back up.
So it was impossible, and that’s why Wall Street won’t see it coming. They think this is their attack and they’re about to break through our ranks, but they’re actually playing right into our hands.
Wendnesday, we moved 1bn shares. Thursday, when nobody could buy, we still moved 500m. Yesterday, we still moved 360m. We’ve moved so much NOK in the past three days, the average volume of the share has MORE THAN DOUBLED in THREE DAYS. The play is not impossible anymore, but Wall St thinks it is, which is how we can use their own strength and mass against them. But the value buy still makes sense WHENEVER you see someone dump a valuable share. Someone sells you a 100$ bill for 90$? Buy it.
They attack? We absorb. They dump, we buy, they run out of shares, we hold. They’re fucked, and they just handed us a bunch of value shares at an undervalue = they just gave us their money. They are just giving it to you. When they realize they can’t buy them back at a lower value, what do you think is going to happen?
Q: We don’t do value plays, we do short squeezes you retards
A: Go back to April. Look at u/DeepFuckingValue’s position. GME was a value play. It’s only in April that the Short Squeeze became possible. Look it up yourself.
Will a short squeeze also happen with NOK? It’s unlikely. Hedge Fund Assholes have been increasing their shorts in NOK in the last few days, but they won’t go over 100% on 5bn shares because they're not as stupid as me. But it doesn’t have to happen. We just need to buy the dumps. If they short, great. More money for us as long as we don’t let them drive the price down with the dumps.
Q: Why is NOK not rocketing?
A: Because Wall Street is dumping, just like I said they would after the Wednesday spike. That’s the whole plan. They dump, we hold the line, buy the dumps and keep the price steady.
The GME short squeeze guys waited for this for UP TO TWO YEARS. I saw it in April. I thought it was crazy. I didn’t jump in back then. If I did, I’d have about as much money as u/DeepFuckingValue. On a value share, you can afford to wait. GME was originally a value play. That’s what I should have realized in April.
SO JUST WAIT AND HOLD (if you believe and idiot like me, which you shouldn't, no need to message me about it). It’s been two days since this play even became possible.
Q: How do we know it’s working?
A: Look at the volume of shares traded. Nokia has 5bn shares. In the last three days, nearly 2bn have been traded. The price is still up from last week. That’s how.
This has already been a giant dumping campaign. How come the price hasn’t floored? What happens if we just buy it all up?
What happens if they run out, and then their shorts blow, the price bumps up, CNBC tells the world we broke another short wall, everyone piles on, Wall Street realizes they just gave us their shares at an undervalue and try to buy back, we don’t sell, we have all the shares? The Wednesday spike is what happens, except this time there is no stopping it. If they stop trading again and try to dump some more, you just buy up the dump and keep the spike going. Spike stops being a spike and becomes a floor.

Q: Where will this max out and when?
A: What do you think I’m from the future? I just saw an impossible thing happen on Wednesday, and we need to make it happen again. Look at the graph. Look at it.
Set your targets to $3310, that should do it.
Q: When should I buy? What should I buy? Should I buy?
A: Be your own person. Buy when you feel like it, if you feel like it.
Q: Wall street bots are promoting NOK.
A: I don’t give a shit. If they are, and we keep buying, they are promoting giving us money.

Part 2: (29 Jan)
First off, much as I appreciate the love, I can’t play your hand for you. You have to make your own decisions. Do I know where NOK is going to be tomorrow? Nope. Nobody does. All that I have for you is the news from Wednesday that this play is no longer totally impossible:
  1. I think the assholes are going to try to dump you out of the market
  2. It won’t work if we keep the demand up.
  3. The way we keep demand up is we buy, and others will follow us because the company is good.
  4. When they realize it won’t work, they’ll need to start buying back in.
  5. Then it’ll be too late, cos they dumped their shares on US and we are RETARDS who HOLD. That means that when their shorts start to go bust, the price will jump up (a little bit, not like with GME at first – this is a different play based on the health of the company, not a straight up short squeeze. The short position on NOK is much smaller).
  6. When the price jumps up, and the GME guys start cashing out, they need somewhere to put that cash. Some of them pay off student loans, or buy cars or whatever, but the smart ones will go NOK.
How you play it is up to you. I can’t tell you if you should buy, what minute to buy, what app to use and so on. All I can say is I buy the dumps. You need to decide for yourself if you want to do it. You can see the dumps on any app, or even yahoo finance. I buy NOK on NYSE, and I buy straight up shares (so they can’t lend out mine for shorts) but you’re free to do what you want. I’m a retard, you’re a retard, we’re all autistic fucks, we make up our own mind and stick with it.
Secondly, what I said yesterday morning would happen, did happen. And it happened exactly like I said it would. So don’t get scared off, just buy the dumps. And they know that they’ll be fucked if we keep buying the dumps. That’s why they stopped us from buying NOK.
NOK hasn’t bubbled, stopping us from buying NOK was because they know we’re on to them. They know the dumps won’t work if we JUST KEEP BUYING and HOLDING. The play works, they’re scared, we caught them with their pants down, they’re trying to get ahead of us.
OK, so about what happened yesterday with RH and others. I’m so fucking angry about this.
What RH and others did is completely insane. Their argument is “you guys are throwing your money away on a bubble, we’re just protecting you”. Bullshit. I won’t comment on GME, I’ll let u/DeepFuckingValue or one of those guys do that. I’ll just say, that short squeezes happen with hedge funds all the fucking time. Why is trading not stopped for them? They have people’s fucking pensions that they’re playing with.
But for NOK, it’s TOTAL BULLSHIT. Here’s why:
  1. NOK HAS NOT BUBBLED. Look at the graph. Look at it. It is still down from 2016. NOK is well within normal variation. Long term, you barely see the spike from a couple of days ago. There is nothing to “protect us” from. They’re protecting themselves.
  2. The NOK play is not a straight up short squeeze. The play is HELPED by the shorts that are there, as long as we can keep the demand up and keep the price up against the dumping, but that’s all.
  3. NOK is a healthy company, with new and important tech, a great brand, a lot of potential. You want to see why, read the original post. ANYONE who sees a company like that being dumped for NO REASON would buy. So should you. They are only dumping it because they’re trying to fuck up our play.
Ok that’s enough for now. I’ll see you all when I’ve got my space boots on, in my house on the FUCKING MOON, next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA with my broke ass. If this doesn’t work, then at least you TOOK ON THE MOTHERFUCKERS and EARNED A PLACE at the table with FUCKING ODIN.
UNBREAKABLE 3310!
ORIGINAL POST (28 Jan):
I get it, it’s not the play. I’m not saying sell your GME. I’m not a bot or a spy or a wall street asshole. I’m a regular guy who’s got a couple of bucks in his bank account and plays videogames and wants a fucking house to live in like my parents had when they were young. If you don’t agree with me, just say so.
I’m also not a financial advisor, so make up your own minds you autistic fucks.
But, BUT, yesterday we did something they’ve never seen. Yesterday, we made them run out of NOK shares. That’s what that big spike was, and that’s why trading was stopped for 2h. If we keep doing that, it will be the biggest wall street wealth transfer from assholes to retards in history. Because they will keep dumping it until it’s too late.
Impossible, you say. Too many shares, you say. Well listen up. Yesterday, in ONE DAY, we traded, or caused others to trade, 1bn shares of Nokia. That is 1/5 of all the Nokia shares in the world. That’s never happened, EVER. Not even when Nokia was the biggest phone company in the world.
3516.16% of average trading volume.
Do you get it? They’ll keep dumping their stock, we keep buying them cheap, and then they won’t be so cheap anymore when they try to buy back in. We can move 1bn shares IN A DAY. ONE DAY. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Why do they stop trading in NYSE? Cos they ran out of shares temporarily and they don’t want “artificial” spikes in the prices. So they made us retards wait a couple of hours while some assholes called some other assholes to unload their shares into the market, and once they had enough, they started again. That’s why that spike went down right after the freeze.
But then we did it again. And they had to stop again. The price just wouldn’t go down. The assholes who’d just unloaded shares were probably back on the phone with the other assholes who’d convinced them.
Everyone is watching us. What we do, millions of normal folks do with us, and every wallstreet asshole does against us.
What did the asshole brigade do? They started shorting NOK. They will continue to do that, because they think we’re retards (they are correct).
But how come the price didn’t go down? It’s got 5bn shares, and everyone whos ever held it was dumping it. How could we ever keep up the demand when there are so many shares out there? How is this going to work?
Because the retard brigade was buying it. There’s 3m of us and counting. If we each put 600 bucks on NOK, we get 100 shares, and that’s 300m shares.
Now imagine what happens if we put 6000 on it. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. And every dip you see, you buy more. AND. FUCKING. HOLD. They'll keep dumping, we keep buying, until they realize the price isn't going down. Then they start buying, we keep holding, the market runs out of NOK. Price skyrockets.
And normies outside were following us. They can see that the stock is still LOW, lower than 2016. This means they don’t think it’s a bubble that’s going to crash on them.
So why do the normies follow us on this, and not on GME? (I’m not saying sell GME).
Because GME has never, ever been anywhere near where it is now. That scares a normal guy who’s just trying to put in some savings for his family. They think this is some Dutch tulip market shit.
Not so with NOK. Even with the spike from yesterday, NOK is still DOWN from 2016. Remember 2016? Remember that being a really big year for Nokia? No, me neither. And let’s not even get started on where it has been in the past. Yesterday's spike barely shows on the graph.
You know what is going to be a big year? 2021 and 2022. Why?
What else did NOK say yesterday? Well, they revealed that they have a new kind of 1 terabit data transfer networks shit, what do I know, I’m not a techie. But it IS a new kind of technology that’s going to kick 5Gs ass. And my fellow retards of the most honorable retard brigade – Do you think we’re going to need more data this year than last year?
Remember how Netflix had to downgrade its picture quality in March because the networks couldn’t handle the amount people were streaming? What do you think is going to happen with the company that solves that?
But why would NOK be the company? Well, remember the 5G war with China?
US and Europe can’t buy 5G from China, because then China has our networks. But guess who US and Europe aren’t afraid of? Fucking FINLAND. Finland, the land of NOKIA. So tiny that some people think the whole country is a conspiracy theory and doesn’t really exist. Sorry Finnish people, nobody gives a shit about you. Good thing for you, cos you get to build the 5G network on the moon and shit because nobody is scared that Finland will take over the world.
Want proof? They are literally building one on the FUCKING MOON: https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2020/10/19/nokia-selected-by-nasa-to-build-first-ever-cellular-network-on-the-moon/
And we’re going to send them there. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
But hang on, why is NOK so low in the first place if it’s so great?
Answer: because Microsoft fucked them. That’s right, they sent one of their own assholes to infiltrate the NOK, leak a bunch shit to drive the share price down, and then buy the phone part of the company. These assholes wrecked the company, the Finnish economy, and every middle class shareholder who was just trying to put their kids to college. Imagine everyone who’d be fucked if someone did that to Apple now.
Worked like a charm. Firesale. Business restructuring. Lost their phones. NOK never recovered.
The asshole they sent from Microsoft? Went back to work for Microsoft, and was paid a shit ton of money for what he did. His name is Stephen Elop. Look it up.
So they have tech that nobody else has and a brand that everyone recognizes. But what don’t they have? Money. That’s why they’re building this 1tb magic network thing in tiny fucking possibly fake Finland to show everyone it works.
But if we drive the share price up, do you think that’s going to change?
So FUCK IT. I’m in for every penny, and I am HOLDING. I’ll see you in my house ON the MOON next to a NOKIA Comms tower, or I’ll see you in VALHALLA you BEAUTIFUL RETARDED MOTHERFUCKERS.
TL;DR: NOK is literally going to the moon. Go there with them. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

submitted by Mullernuller to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

GME - EndGame part 4: The Saga Continues

GME - EndGame part 4: The Saga Continues
This is an extension of my DD series on GME. If you haven’t read them and have time, they will provide some background on my previous predictions, some of which have already come true. In this post, I’ll share my thoughts on what I think is going on, plus some tips to manage your positions and exits.
TL;DR: Shorts are in but likely want to get out. And they want to get out at the best price possible. See tips for managing positions.

Previous Important Posts

  • EndGame Part 1 (DTC Infinity) covered the short positions, the float, and potential snowball impacts of increasing prices, and argued that part of the reason that shorts haven’t closed was that it was pretty much impossible for shorts to close
  • EndGame Part 2 covered Cohen, fair market cap analysis, and potential investors, in which I talked about the amazing mid-to-long term potential for GME.
  • HEY SEC, if you’re reading please read this one - After the Citron tweet, I shared this fan fiction on what looked like blatant market manipulation by shorts on the day of the tweet, and offered some education on strengthening your position. This one got buried and is worth reading.
  • EndGame Part 3 covered the gamma squeeze, potential shady tactics by MMs, and some tips for staying safe.

What’s happening with the price?

We’re still gamma squeezing

Many media outlets are reporting this as a “short squeeze”. They’re only partially right, as if Melvin isn’t lying they’ve already been squeezed out.
However, the reality is so far we’ve been Gamma squeezing - repeatedly - and some shorts have been casualties along the way.
See this post for a deeper explanation, but the essence of it is that market-makers have to buy shares to hedge the calls they sell. The more calls people buy, the more shares they MMs have to hedge with. As I explained in part 1, GME has ultra low liquidity, i.e. there’s waaaay fewer actively traded shares than what shorts need to buy to cover with, and then when you get lots of people buying calls and shares in the hot new stock it just removes more availability from the market.
As a result, when MMs buy shares to hedge, it moves the price of the underlying up. Combine that with the buying pressure of people piling into a stock climbing 100% a day, shorts getting liquidated, and it’s a perfect storm.
Today, GME closed at $347 (before the after market selloff, but i’ll get to that soon).
320 calls were added yesterday. Similarly, when 115cs were added we squeezed to >115 in two days. Same story with 60c’s etc.
Remember this commentary from EndGame part 3 on Friday’s price action:
Notice how the stock dropped from a high of $75 on Friday to below 60 - the highest expiring SP for the 1/22 options, and stayed tight in range for the rest of the day. Now, for compliance reasons, MM are required to be neutral by EOD, so 20 minutes before close, MMs had to buy back all their short positions, which led to the strong close above 60.
All this led me to believe that the real fair market price for GME was above $65. Without the market makers interference, GME would have closed higher.
Now, what happened today? We opened at $351, more than double the previous close of $145 and after the morning profit taking, we squeezed to a high of $372 as MMs furiously tried to hedge the 320 calls they sold you the day before for peanuts.
See, the thing is, Kenny G doesn’t like to lose money. The magical method Citadel’s market makers make money, is that they sell you call giving you the right to buy shares at a certain price, say $320, for the nice price of $10/share (for example). Now, as long as Citadel’s MMs can buy all the shares they have to give to you for less than $320, that $10 is free money. However, when the underlying moves too fast, the MMs have to buy shares for more than $320, and Kenny G does not like that.
Today was a shock to the MMs that sold all the 320cs yesterday. A six-sigma event after a six-sigma event after a six-sigma event. Yet again, within days (a day?) of offering new, higher strikes - every call option ever sold was in the money, before they had a chance to adequately hedge.

https://preview.redd.it/cq5wy45433e61.png?width=936&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c75a1e1a6e3808b54bafc646e2e6a7f29ca7cc3
So, just as on Friday, if the price got too high above $320, market makers dug into their bag of tricks to start selling it off. (People taking profits here helped too.) However, multiple times, when GME went below $300, MMs took their opportunity to hedge the 1/29 calls. So, just as before, we traded in a tight range around the highest strike.
My conclusion from this action the first time was that GME’s fair price was being actively suppressed, and it proceeded to 5x in the next few days. There’s a possibility we’re in a replay and will see more upward movement on delta hedging alone.
The point of this is: I think shorts are feeling the squeeze, for sure, reporting massive mark-to-market losses. But I believe the shorts are still in.

Shorts are still in

As of Wednesday morning, Ortex was estimating a short interest of 65M shares, down from 71M shares the day before.

https://preview.redd.it/ze8wx15633e61.png?width=932&format=png&auto=webp&s=7a034dbb3c54509c6267f20c4122ecdf3f6cf4bc
If you’ve read my Part 1 (DTC Infinity), you’ll hopefully recall my thesis that there are actually less than 24M shares available, and therefore that it would be nigh impossible for shorts to close. Since then a slew of new investors have piled in to buy and hold GME, from little guys like us to big-ass-whales like Blackrock increasing their holdings to 13% of GME.
So what? I think the available shares for shorts to buy are down to under 20M, and they have to buy 65M shares to close. Shorts have barely begun to cover. We’ve only been increasing the cost of their exits!
Now, let’s talk about Melvin Capital. I loved watching Chamath defend retail investors and argue against the institutional leveraged shorting that got us here in the first place, but I also learned something interesting that helped me understand how the 140% short interest had in the first place, and how the unwinding may go.
At 2:10 Chamath saysGabe Plotkin is one of the giants of our era, but at the end of the day, what happens is that his trades are copied by umpteen other hedge funds that follow along
This tells me 2 things:
  • A lot of hedge funds (likely Maplelane, D1, Viking, Point72, and more) followed each other into this short. Much like retards like us get behind good DD shared in the open, these institutional retards got together with their cigars and golf clubs behind closed doors and decided together to go in together against GME.
  • If Melvin is really out, it’s unlikely the other funds are going to want to stay in, lest they be compared poorly to Melvin if GME continues to go against them. The other shorts want out.
Chamath also tells us that prime brokers (the brokers that hedge funds use) are seeing “the biggest 4-day degrossing from hedge funds they’ve ever seen”.
Again, the problem is - there just aren’t enough shares. Shorts have dug themselves a massive grave by shorting more shares in existence and continuing to short while Cohen grabbed up 9M shares, institutions added to their positions, and retail traders piled in.
For boomers like this tard that can’t understand why the price is so high - go back to Econ 101, supply and demand bitch.

It’s costing shorts incredible $ to hold their positions

Here’s all the ways shorts are losing money.
  • They pay borrow fees to loan the stock. At one point today, the GME stock borrow fee hit 250% for new borrows. At $300/share that’s $2/day. That doesn’t sound like much right? What if you shorted at $50?
  • The short position on GME has ballooned to $25BN from a low of $1B. The borrow fees are applied to the latest closing price, not the price you shorted at.
  • Funds are paying interest fees on the margin they are using for the short
  • And oh yeah, GME’s up like 800% in 5 days.

Dirty tactics continue

At this point, I think “THEY” have figured out that gamma squeezes are absolutely destroying hedge funds. So what do they do?
  • THE BIGGEST DIRTIEST TACTIC OF ALL - they only allow you to sell, not buy. HEY SEC, WHY ARE SHORTS STILL ALLOWED TO SHORT WHEN LONGS ARE NOT ALLOWED TO BUY. WHY ARE INSTITUTIONS ALLOWED TO COLLUDE?
    • This is insane. Funds, prime brokerages, and market makers all stood to lose money so they disabled trading of GME due to "volatility". Citadel invests in Melvin capital. Then brokerages shut down buying!
  • Brokerages down
  • Options not loading
  • Restrict retail trading on GME
    • I’m seeing reports that retail buyers not allowed to hold more than 100 GME options now
https://preview.redd.it/is4qn8n733e61.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=741f80fc182e27584954691ebb581ffee15f86ef
  • This is a direct defense against more gamma squeezes and an attack on retail investors, giving institutions a distinct advantage.
  • HEY Shortsellers Enrichment Corporation - how is it ok for Citron to buy thousands of puts minutes before their tweet and how is it ok for prime brokers to give hedge funds 10-100x leverage, but the little guys can’t have more than 100 options total?
    • Personally, I don’t really do 100s of options all at once but now I really want to. Fuck this.
  • More short ladder attacks. Look at after-hours trading on GME - a rapid short ladder attack during low-volume trading in order to bring the price down.
  • If you use stop losses on GME and leave them on, you will get stop-loss hunted.

Ripple effects of the squeeze
  • These hedge funds that are short GME, are also short other equities like BBBY, AMC, etc.
  • These hedge funds are also long other shares with leverage, so the ONLY way they’re staying alive and not covering their shorts, is that they’re reducing their long leverage. This means selloffs in the broader market as they have to shore up their margin requirements against the massive short squeezes in their portfolios.

I believe we’re at a tipping point

  • I don’t believe shorts have really covered yet. They have defended by getting capital infusions and reducing their long leverage. I.e. they have begun liquidating long positions.
  • If GME climbs more, they will be forced to cover and liquidate.

Things to be careful about

As you can see, this is no easy win. In addition to the suggestions I wrote about in this post, here’s some things to be careful about.
  • There are threats to halt trading. Shares are safe, they do not expire. Calls can be destroyed by tactics like buying halts.
  • Be careful about swapping ITM calls for OTM calls: it can be tempting to trade-up your options for higher return, but be mindful of the delta impact. You may actually be driving the sale of shares by MMs when you don’t mean to. For example, if you sell a .5 delta call for 2 .2 delta calls, that’s net reduction of 10 shares that MMs have to hold long as leverage.
  • Be careful about being short any calls this week: Not only do you limit your upside (which is dumb in the prospect of a squeeze), you could end up in a nightmare scenario. A call that ends OTM on Friday could end up ITM after hours if you didn’t sell it, and you may get assigned while the underlying continues to go up. Close spreads if your short legs are deep ITM unless you want to risk early assignment and high hard-to-borrow fees.
  • There are a few other dirty tactics shorts can play. I’m not specifically going to share them here because I don’t want to give the ideas circulation, but
    • Choose your own limit sells based on personal sell points. Don’t copy others and don’t try to be memey. Make your own decisions.
    • Stop sharing your positions publicly. I know this is anti-wsb, and I think sharing them is great for this community, but in the case of GME it’s an attack vector for you.
  • Be careful of holding weeklies until expiration. Remember the multiple trading halts? What if trading gets halted on Friday at 2pm and doesn’t resume for the rest of the day? All your 1/29 calls would expire worthless. Depending on your broker and your cash positions, maybe even your ITM ones. Roll (or sell, if you’re taking profits) your weeklies well before expiration.
  • Be careful about buying on margin. Brokers are rapidly increasing margins. If you bought on margin with 2:1 leverage, and the stock went up 100%, you’d be in margin call even without a margin change. If the broker moves margin against you, you’ll get to margin call faster.
  • Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose. I’ve been in GME long enough to know that just when you think going up is a sure thing (remember last Monday with the short sale restriction?), you can be surprised by a new trick. If you bet it all on weeklies all at once, you may not be able to recover from being wrong on the timing. Consider longer expiry or spreading your purchases out. I’ve held through multiple 30-40% drawdowns in the underlying; and held through a 50% drawdown today, so you need to be ready for the volatility.
  • Watch out for stop loss hunts. It’s common practice for shorts to hunt for stop losses for cheap shares. If you’ve set a stop loss, be really sure about it.
  • Don’t sell on dips. You’re only helping the shorts. If you need to sell to take profits, sell when it’s heading up. Sell high, not low retards.
  • Save dry powder to buy on dips. Dips manufactured by shorts are buying opportunities. Take advantage of folks with paper hands to capture shares at low points. GME has incredible daily volatility. Set a low limit buy and just wait for the order to fill. Have patience when buying.
This is not financial advice; do your own DD. I’m holding over $1M in shares and calls. I AM NOT SELLING WHEN THE BUYING MARKET HAS BEEN REMOVED. YOU ARE BOUND TO NOT GET A FAIR MARKET PRICE.
Update New ortex data shows 51M short interest. So the covering has begun.
Update 2: what you are seeing in the price drops is likely the gamma squeeze in reverse. People are rightly selling their short term calls, so MMs are selling shares they bought to hedge. That drives the price down, which then causes more de-hedging. This is all a manufactured selloff by elimination of ability of people to buy the equity and should absolutely be investigated. It's very likely the big boys knew the buying restriction was coming and started the selloff last night.
Update 3: getting angrier by the minute. Reviewing the volume and price action and shorts bought in volume at the absolute bottom. This mothefucker, Steve Cohen, who bailed out Melvin and previously accused of insider trading is now GLOATING after this blatant trick https://twitter.com/StevenACohen2/status/1354864321134735360?s=09
submitted by FatAspirations to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Naked shorting in GME and how the pieces suddenly fit together

TLDR: Naked shorting appears prevalent in GME, and if so is likely aided by DTCC, whom by extension may have shut down the short squeeze on 1/28 because it would've caused a massive scandal. I know ape can't read but I implore you to read the whole thing (originally wasn't going to add a TLDR but decided to add it just so more people will read even just a little bit)
I was doing some research on naked shorting in the context of GME which led me down a rabbit hole of pieces connecting with each other as it relates to GME. I was taking notes while reading and below are the results of my notes. This is still a hypothesis and theory but appears supported by numerous pieces of the puzzle, I could be wrong but personally the pieces seem clear to me now:
One of the interesting things about GME and a big part of what triggered the short squeeze happening is the extraordinarily large short interest percentage reported by Finra to be 226%, and later in the range of 150% percent of total float. Another interesting factor is the extraordinarily high number of FTIDs (https://wherearetheshares.com/). Both are strong indicators of the practice of naked short selling which in general is illegal. In addition there have been many indications that there are far more shares out there then should exist (there are many analysis and data points pointing to this but just one example: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/le235t/gme_institutions_hold_177_of_float_why_the/). Where do these shares come from? One potential explanation is synthetic long shares (created via a loophole described here https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/leorks/evidence_points_to_gme_shorts_not_having_covered/) or counterfeit shares caused by naked shorting.
I’m an entrepreneur, not a finance expert, so I started doing some more digging on naked short selling to educate myself more on the subject. I started with this https://www.sec.gov/investopubs/regsho.htm. “Failures to deliver may result from either a short or a long sale. There may be legitimate reasons for a failure to deliver. For example, human or mechanical errors or processing delays can result from transferring securities in physical certificate rather than book-entry form, thus causing a failure to deliver on a long sale within the normal three-day settlement period. A fail may also result from “naked” short selling.”
Interesting. We have a consistent and very high rate of FTIDs dating from 2020 and beyond, an indicator that the stock has potentially been naked shorted for a long time.
According to former Chairman of the SEC Christopher Cox, “Abusive naked short sales... can be used as a tool to drive down a company's stock price to the detriment of all of its investors. The Commission is particularly concerned about persistent failures to deliver in the market for some securities that may be due to loopholes in the Commission's Regulation SHO, adopted just two years ago… Selling short without having stock available for delivery, and intentionally failing to deliver stock within the standard three-day settlement period, is market manipulation that is clearly violative of the federal securities laws… We are particularly concerned about the potential negative effect that substantial and persistent fails to deliver may be having on the market in some securities. Specifically, these fails to deliver can deprive shareholders of the benefits of ownership - voting, lending, and dividends from issuers. Moreover, they can be indicative of abusive naked short selling, which could be used as a tool to drive down a company's stock price. (Source: https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/2006/spch071206cc2.htm)
In a different speech Mr Cox re-iterated that short selling helps prevent "irrational exuberance and bubbles. But when someone fails to borrow and deliver the securities needed to make good on a short position, after failing even to determine that they can be borrowed, that is not contributing to an orderly market – it is undermining it.” Mr Cox also “referred to "the serious problem of abusive naked short sales” as “a tool to drive down a company's stock price" and that the SEC is "concerned about the persistent failures to deliver in the market for some securities that may be due to loopholes in Regulation SHO" (which reminds me of this piece I wrote https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/leorks/evidence_points_to_gme_shorts_not_having_covered/) (source for SEC Chairman’s words: https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/2008/spch071808cc.htm)
As another datapoint, Robert J. Shapiro, former undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs has claimed that naked short selling has cost investors $100 billion and driven 1,000 companies into the ground. (Source: This was originally in a time magazine article from 2005 which was deleted https://time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1126706-3,00.html but the statement still exists in record in an SEC Filing from 2008 https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-170.htm)
I also read ‘One complaint about naked shorting from targeted companies is that the practice dilutes a company's shares for as long as unsettled short sales sit open on the books. This has been alleged to create "phantom" or "counterfeit" shares, sometimes going from trade to trade without connection to any physical shares, and artificially depressing the share price’”. Shortly after, I read that Matt Taibbi contended the use of naked shorting and counterfeit shares was the tactic used to help kill both Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers. Taibbi said that the two firms got a "push" into extinction from "a flat-out counterfeiting scheme called naked short-selling". (Source: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/30481512/wall_streets_naked_swindle)
All these sources above seem to support the theory that GME stock was wildly naked shorted, which put funds in the risk of being badly short squeezed. If investing on the basis of the extraordinarily high short interest percentage, GME was a prime candidate for a short squeeze to happen -- potentially even an infinite short squeeze. On 1/26 Elon tweeted about Gamestop and that was the day the stock entered the mainstream for a lot of people and retail investors began to really pile on to the stock outside of WSB. The goal of this was to push the stock price up and trigger a short squeeze, the theorized losers would be the funds that naked shorted and would be stuck in the squeeze.
On 1/28 Thursday when the stock had immense momentum from the moment pre-trading started (the stock shot up to 513 in pre-trading) and it looked like the squeeze was going to happen that day, the momentum was suddenly shut down when Robinhood (where many or potentially majority of retail investors were on) were shut off from the ability to buy GME stock and only allow selling, followed by several other brokers. Many believe this was a result of collusion and that this shut down allowed badly besieged hedge funds to close some positions while the public was shut out of buying (but funds were not.) When this happened people were upset at Robinhood suspecting it was a result of potential collusion between Robinhood and Citadel (which along with Point72 invested a lifeline of 2.5 billion to Melvin Capital, one of the short side funds, and is also responsible for something like 40% of Robinhoods entire revenue by buying their order books), but many also speculated collusion with DTCC itself. Now, personally speaking, its kind of crazy to think about DTCC being complicit in something like this. However, looking into the details of what happened, a skeptical part of me became suspicious.
Apparently what triggered the shut down on trading GME on that day was DTCC sending a letter at 4 am to Robinhood requiring them to come up with 3 billion dollars (https://fortune.com/2021/02/02/robinhood-gamestop-restricted-trading-meme-stocks-gme-amc-vlad-tenev-nscc/) . So it sounds like it was essentially this DTCC letter that led to the shut down of the momentum on GME and the short squeeze happening. On that day, there were theories thrown out that DTCC was potentially complicit in the naked short selling of GME and intentionally did this to stem the massive blow back/scandal if an infinite short squeeze did happen. Assuming the price of share of the price rocketed to 1000 or beyond (which would be likely in the event of a short squeeze or infinite short squeeze), hedge funds would likely go bankrupt as financially speaking there would be no way they would be able to cover all their shorts, and presumably entities that lent the short side hedge fund the shares to short would be holding the bag. Worse, DTCC would be exposed for being complicit in this entire thing, I imagine it would be an incredible scandal to say the least.
Then I read something that caught my eye… DTCC has had a history of being at the center and source of naked shorts. From an article dating back to 2007, “Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. is a little-known institution in the nation's stock markets with a seemingly straightforward job: It is the middleman that helps ensure delivery of shares to buyers and money to sellers. About 99% of the time, trades are completed without incident. But about 1% of the shares -- valued at about $2.5 billion on a given a day -- aren't delivered to the buyer within the requisite three days, for one reason or another. These "failures to deliver" have put DTCC in the middle of a long-running fight over whether unscrupulous investors are driving down hundreds of small companies' share prices.” (Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118359867562957720)
Apparently the DTCC has been known to be allowing or complicit in this action for a very long time. According to Wall Street Journal “There is no dispute that illegal naked shorting happens. The fight is over how prevalent the problem is -- and the extent to which DTCC is responsible. Some companies with falling stock prices say it is rampant and blame DTCC as the keepers of the system where it happens. DTCC and others say it isn't widespread enough to be a major concern.” (Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118359867562957720).
As a thought experiment, lets say naked shorting is rampant in GME (many many indicators point to this) and lets say DTCC was ultimately responsible for allowing a wide scale naked shorting campaign on GME, wouldn’t it be in their best interest to make sure this doesn’t get out and blow up in their faces? Something to consider. Because had they not done what they did on 1/29 Thursday, many traders believe the squeeze would’ve happened that day.
From the Wall Street Journal: “The Securities and Exchange Commission has viewed naked shorting as a serious enough matter to have made two separate efforts to restrict the practice. The latest move came last month, when the SEC further tightened the rules regarding when stock has to be delivered after a sale. But some critics argue the SEC still hasn't done enough… Some delivery failures linger for weeks or months. Until that failure is resolved, there are effectively additional shares of a company's stock rattling around the trading system in the form of the shares credited to the buyer's account, critics say. This "phantom stock" can put downward pressure on a company's share price by increasing the supply… Critics contend DTCC has turned a blind eye to the naked-shorting problem.” (source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118359867562957720)
From everything I’ve seen, as someone who has been an observer and a participant of this saga starting from 1/26, many things look very fishy and there are a lot of red flags people have documented. I personally hold the following hypothesis:
You might asking yourself now, what I can do? You can:
- Tweet, email or write a letter to your local congressman. Feel free to send them this post if you'd like or summarize the issue for them. Tweet at https://twitter.com/AOC so she's aware of this for the hearings
- Notify the SEC [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
- Contact any journalists you know, forward this post to them, let them know the story and why its significant. If you don't know any journalists, you can drop a tip here https://nypost.com/tips/ and you can just share the link if you'd like.
- Spread the word through word of mouth, twitter, etc. Share this post as much as you can.
Edit 1: Matt Taibi's rolling stone article is highly relevant and good reading on this subject https://www.rollingstone.com/feature/wall-streets-naked-swindle-194908/, parallels on every level. Even if you've read it before, recommend reading it again. Shows me that if the hypothesis posed is true, prime brokers are likely complicit. Prime brokers also happen to own the DTCC.
This brings up another interesting thought experiment. On 1/28 when the price was 450+ and shorts were likely under 100, if we assume prime brokers allowed naking shorting in GME, then if they margin called the shorts, they would go down as well as shorts would not be able to pay and brokers would be holding the bag. They have every incentive in this case to NOT margin call because doing so might also taken them down, instead the most logical option would be to make a backroom deal which is what I personally think likely happened.
Edit 2: A compelling theory put forth by someone on what the 800 dollar calls were for and how they could be used to cancel out naked shorts includes data/graphs, recommend giving it a read
submitted by sfjetsetter to Wallstreetbetsnew [link] [comments]

Naked shorting in GME and how the pieces suddenly fit together

TLDR: Naked shorting appears prevalent in GME, and if true was likely aided by DTCC, whom by extension may have shut down the short squeeze on 1/28 because it would've caused a massive scandal had the squeeze happened. I know ape can't read but I implore you to read the whole thing (originally wasn't going to add a TLDR but decided to add it just so more people will read even just a little bit)
I was doing some research on naked shorting in the context of GME which led me down a rabbit hole of pieces connecting with each other as it relates to GME. I was taking notes while reading and below are the results of my notes. This is still a hypothesis and theory but appears supported by numerous pieces of the puzzle, I could be wrong but personally the pieces seem clear to me now:
One of the interesting things about GME and a big part of what triggered the short squeeze happening is the extraordinarily large short interest percentage reported by Finra to be 226%, and later in the range of 150% percent of total float. Another interesting factor is the extraordinarily high number of FTIDs (https://wherearetheshares.com/). Both are strong indicators of the practice of naked short selling which in general is illegal. In addition there have been many indications that there are far more shares out there then should exist (there are many analysis and data points pointing to this but just one example: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/le235t/gme_institutions_hold_177_of_float_why_the/). Where do these shares come from? One potential explanation is synthetic long shares (created via a loophole described here https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/leorks/evidence_points_to_gme_shorts_not_having_covered/) or counterfeit shares caused by naked shorting.
I’m an entrepreneur, not a finance expert, so I started doing some more digging on naked short selling to educate myself more on the subject. I started with this https://www.sec.gov/investopubs/regsho.htm. “Failures to deliver may result from either a short or a long sale. There may be legitimate reasons for a failure to deliver. For example, human or mechanical errors or processing delays can result from transferring securities in physical certificate rather than book-entry form, thus causing a failure to deliver on a long sale within the normal three-day settlement period. A fail may also result from “naked” short selling.”
Interesting. We have a consistent and very high rate of FTIDs dating from 2020 and beyond, an indicator that the stock has potentially been naked shorted for a long time.
According to former Chairman of the SEC Christopher Cox, “Abusive naked short sales... can be used as a tool to drive down a company's stock price to the detriment of all of its investors. The Commission is particularly concerned about persistent failures to deliver in the market for some securities that may be due to loopholes in the Commission's Regulation SHO, adopted just two years ago… Selling short without having stock available for delivery, and intentionally failing to deliver stock within the standard three-day settlement period, is market manipulation that is clearly violative of the federal securities laws… We are particularly concerned about the potential negative effect that substantial and persistent fails to deliver may be having on the market in some securities. Specifically, these fails to deliver can deprive shareholders of the benefits of ownership - voting, lending, and dividends from issuers. Moreover, they can be indicative of abusive naked short selling, which could be used as a tool to drive down a company's stock price. (Source: https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/2006/spch071206cc2.htm)
In a different speech Mr Cox re-iterated that short selling helps prevent "irrational exuberance and bubbles. But when someone fails to borrow and deliver the securities needed to make good on a short position, after failing even to determine that they can be borrowed, that is not contributing to an orderly market – it is undermining it.” Mr Cox also “referred to "the serious problem of abusive naked short sales” as “a tool to drive down a company's stock price" and that the SEC is "concerned about the persistent failures to deliver in the market for some securities that may be due to loopholes in Regulation SHO" (which reminds me of this piece I wrote https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/leorks/evidence_points_to_gme_shorts_not_having_covered/) (source for SEC Chairman’s words: https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/2008/spch071808cc.htm)
As another datapoint, Robert J. Shapiro, former undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs has claimed that naked short selling has cost investors $100 billion and driven 1,000 companies into the ground. (Source: This was originally in a time magazine article from 2005 which was deleted https://time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1126706-3,00.html but the statement still exists in record in an SEC Filing from 2008 https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-170.htm)
I also read ‘One complaint about naked shorting from targeted companies is that the practice dilutes a company's shares for as long as unsettled short sales sit open on the books. This has been alleged to create "phantom" or "counterfeit" shares, sometimes going from trade to trade without connection to any physical shares, and artificially depressing the share price’”. Shortly after, I read that Matt Taibbi contended the use of naked shorting and counterfeit shares was the tactic used to help kill both Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers. Taibbi said that the two firms got a "push" into extinction from "a flat-out counterfeiting scheme called naked short-selling". (Source: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/30481512/wall_streets_naked_swindle)
All these sources above seem to support the theory that GME stock was wildly naked shorted, which put funds in the risk of being badly short squeezed. If investing on the basis of the extraordinarily high short interest percentage, GME was a prime candidate for a short squeeze to happen -- potentially even an infinite short squeeze. On 1/26 Elon tweeted about Gamestop and that was the day the stock entered the mainstream for a lot of people and retail investors began to really pile on to the stock outside of WSB. The goal of this was to push the stock price up and trigger a short squeeze, the theorized losers would be the funds that naked shorted and would be stuck in the squeeze.
On 1/28 Thursday when the stock had immense momentum from the moment pre-trading started (the stock shot up to 513 in pre-trading) and it looked like the squeeze was going to happen that day, the momentum was suddenly shut down when Robinhood (where many or potentially majority of retail investors were on) were shut off from the ability to buy GME stock and only allow selling, followed by several other brokers. Many believe this was a result of collusion and that this shut down allowed badly besieged hedge funds to close some positions while the public was shut out of buying (but funds were not.) When this happened people were upset at Robinhood suspecting it was a result of potential collusion between Robinhood and Citadel (which along with Point72 invested a lifeline of 2.5 billion to Melvin Capital, one of the short side funds, and is also responsible for something like 40% of Robinhoods entire revenue by buying their order books), but many also speculated collusion with DTCC itself. Now, personally speaking, its kind of crazy to think about DTCC being complicit in something like this. However, looking into the details of what happened, a skeptical part of me became suspicious.
Apparently what triggered the shut down on trading GME on that day was DTCC sending a letter at 4 am to Robinhood requiring them to come up with 3 billion dollars (https://fortune.com/2021/02/02/robinhood-gamestop-restricted-trading-meme-stocks-gme-amc-vlad-tenev-nscc/) . So it sounds like it was essentially this DTCC letter that led to the shut down of the momentum on GME and the short squeeze happening. On that day, there were theories thrown out that DTCC was potentially complicit in the naked short selling of GME and intentionally did this to stem the massive blow back/scandal if an infinite short squeeze did happen. Assuming the price of share of the price rocketed to 1000 or beyond (which would be likely in the event of a short squeeze or infinite short squeeze), hedge funds would likely go bankrupt as financially speaking there would be no way they would be able to cover all their shorts, and presumably entities that lent the short side hedge fund the shares to short would be holding the bag. Worse, DTCC would be exposed for being complicit in this entire thing, I imagine it would be an incredible scandal to say the least.
Then I read something that caught my eye… DTCC has had a history of being at the center and source of naked shorts. From an article dating back to 2007, “Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. is a little-known institution in the nation's stock markets with a seemingly straightforward job: It is the middleman that helps ensure delivery of shares to buyers and money to sellers. About 99% of the time, trades are completed without incident. But about 1% of the shares -- valued at about $2.5 billion on a given a day -- aren't delivered to the buyer within the requisite three days, for one reason or another. These "failures to deliver" have put DTCC in the middle of a long-running fight over whether unscrupulous investors are driving down hundreds of small companies' share prices.” (Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118359867562957720)
Apparently the DTCC has been known to be allowing or complicit in this action for a very long time. According to Wall Street Journal “There is no dispute that illegal naked shorting happens. The fight is over how prevalent the problem is -- and the extent to which DTCC is responsible. Some companies with falling stock prices say it is rampant and blame DTCC as the keepers of the system where it happens. DTCC and others say it isn't widespread enough to be a major concern.” (Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118359867562957720).
As a thought experiment, lets say naked shorting is rampant in GME (many many indicators point to this) and lets say DTCC was ultimately responsible for allowing a wide scale naked shorting campaign on GME, wouldn’t it be in their best interest to make sure this doesn’t get out and blow up in their faces? Something to consider. Because had they not done what they did on 1/29 Thursday, many traders believe the squeeze would’ve happened that day.
From the Wall Street Journal: “The Securities and Exchange Commission has viewed naked shorting as a serious enough matter to have made two separate efforts to restrict the practice. The latest move came last month, when the SEC further tightened the rules regarding when stock has to be delivered after a sale. But some critics argue the SEC still hasn't done enough… Some delivery failures linger for weeks or months. Until that failure is resolved, there are effectively additional shares of a company's stock rattling around the trading system in the form of the shares credited to the buyer's account, critics say. This "phantom stock" can put downward pressure on a company's share price by increasing the supply… Critics contend DTCC has turned a blind eye to the naked-shorting problem.” (source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118359867562957720)
From everything I’ve seen, as someone who has been an observer and a participant of this saga starting from 1/26, many things look very fishy and there are a lot of red flags people have documented. I personally hold the following hypothesis:
You might asking yourself now, what I can do? You can:
- Tweet, email or write a letter to your local congressman. Feel free to send them this post if you'd like or summarize the issue for them. Tweet at https://twitter.com/AOC so she's aware of this for the hearings
- Notify the SEC [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
- Contact any journalists you know, forward this post to them, let them know the story and why its significant. If you don't know any journalists, you can drop a tip here https://nypost.com/tips/ and you can just share the link if you'd like.
- Spread the word through word of mouth, twitter, etc. Share this post as much as you can.
Edit 1: Matt Taibi's rolling stone article is highly relevant and good reading on this subject https://www.rollingstone.com/feature/wall-streets-naked-swindle-194908/, parallels on every level. Even if you've read it before, recommend reading it again. Shows me that if the hypothesis posed is true, prime brokers are likely complicit. Prime brokers also happen to own the DTCC.
This brings up another interesting thought experiment. On 1/28 when the price was 450+ and shorts were likely under 100, if we assume prime brokers allowed naking shorting in GME, then if they margin called the shorts, they would go down as well as shorts would not be able to pay and brokers would be holding the bag. They have every incentive in this case to NOT margin call because doing so might also taken them down, instead the most logical option would be to make a backroom deal which is what I personally think likely happened.
Edit 2: A compelling theory put forth by someone on what the 800 dollar calls were for and how they could be used to cancel out naked shorts includes data/graphs, recommend giving it a read
Edit 3: If you want to read more in depth about counterfeiting stock this is a good place to start http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html
submitted by rainforest11 to Wallstreetbetsnew [link] [comments]

Naked shorting in GME and how the pieces suddenly fit together

TLDR: Naked shorting appears prevalent in GME, and if so is likely aided by DTCC, whom by extension may have shut down the short squeeze on 1/28 because it would've caused a massive scandal. I know ape can't read but I implore you to read the whole thing (originally wasn't going to add a TLDR but decided to add it just so more people understand even just a little bit)
I was doing some research on naked shorting in the context of GME which led me down a rabbit hole of pieces connecting with each other as it relates to GME. I was taking notes while reading and below are the results of my notes. This is still a hypothesis and theory but appears supported by numerous pieces of the puzzle, I could be wrong but personally the pieces seem clear to me now:
One of the interesting things about GME and a big part of what triggered the short squeeze happening is the extraordinarily large short interest percentage reported by Finra to be 226%, and later in the range of 150% percent of total float. Another interesting factor is the extraordinarily high number of FTIDs (https://wherearetheshares.com/). Both are strong indicators of the practice of naked short selling which in general is illegal. In addition there have been many indications that there are far more shares out there then should exist (there are many analysis and data points pointing to this but just one example: https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/le235t/gme_institutions_hold_177_of_float_why_the/). Where do these shares come from? One potential explanation is synthetic long shares (created via a loophole described here https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/leorks/evidence_points_to_gme_shorts_not_having_covered/) or counterfeit shares caused by naked shorting.
I’m an entrepreneur, not a finance expert, so I started doing some more digging on naked short selling to educate myself more on the subject. I started with this https://www.sec.gov/investopubs/regsho.htm. “Failures to deliver may result from either a short or a long sale. There may be legitimate reasons for a failure to deliver. For example, human or mechanical errors or processing delays can result from transferring securities in physical certificate rather than book-entry form, thus causing a failure to deliver on a long sale within the normal three-day settlement period. A fail may also result from “naked” short selling.”
Interesting. We have a consistent and very high rate of FTIDs dating from 2020 and beyond, an indicator that the stock has potentially been naked shorted for a long time.
According to former Chairman of the SEC Christopher Cox, “Abusive naked short sales... can be used as a tool to drive down a company's stock price to the detriment of all of its investors. The Commission is particularly concerned about persistent failures to deliver in the market for some securities that may be due to loopholes in the Commission's Regulation SHO, adopted just two years ago… Selling short without having stock available for delivery, and intentionally failing to deliver stock within the standard three-day settlement period, is market manipulation that is clearly violative of the federal securities laws… We are particularly concerned about the potential negative effect that substantial and persistent fails to deliver may be having on the market in some securities. Specifically, these fails to deliver can deprive shareholders of the benefits of ownership - voting, lending, and dividends from issuers. Moreover, they can be indicative of abusive naked short selling, which could be used as a tool to drive down a company's stock price. (Source: https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/2006/spch071206cc2.htm)
In a different speech Mr Cox re-iterated that short selling helps prevent "irrational exuberance" and bubbles. But when someone fails to borrow and deliver the securities needed to make good on a short position, after failing even to determine that they can be borrowed, that is not contributing to an orderly market – it is undermining it.” Mr Cox also “referred to "the serious problem of abusive naked short sales” as “a tool to drive down a company's stock price" and that the SEC is "concerned about the persistent failures to deliver in the market for some securities that may be due to loopholes in Regulation SHO" (which reminds me of this piece I wrote https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/leorks/evidence_points_to_gme_shorts_not_having_covered/) (source for SEC Chairman’s words: https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/2008/spch071808cc.htm)
As another datapoint, Robert J. Shapiro, former undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs has claimed that naked short selling has cost investors $100 billion and driven 1,000 companies into the ground. (Source: This was originally in a time magazine article from 2005 which was deleted https://time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1126706-3,00.html but the statement still exists in record in an SEC Filing from 2008 https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-08-08/s70808-170.htm)
I also read ‘One complaint about naked shorting from targeted companies is that the practice dilutes a company's shares for as long as unsettled short sales sit open on the books. This has been alleged to create "phantom" or "counterfeit" shares, sometimes going from trade to trade without connection to any physical shares, and artificially depressing the share price’”. Shortly after, I read that Matt Taibbi contended the use of naked shorting and counterfeit shares was the tactic used to help kill both Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers. Taibbi said that the two firms got a "push" into extinction from "a flat-out counterfeiting scheme called naked short-selling". (Source: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/30481512/wall_streets_naked_swindle)
All these sources above seem to support the theory that GME stock was wildly naked shorted, which put funds in the risk of being badly short squeezed. If investing on the basis of the extraordinarily high short interest percentage, GME was a prime candidate for a short squeeze to happen -- potentially even an infinite short squeeze. On 1/26 Elon tweeted about Gamestop and that was the day the stock entered the mainstream for a lot of people and retail investors began to really pile on to the stock outside of WSB. The goal of this was to push the stock price up and trigger a short squeeze, the theorized losers would be the funds that naked shorted and would be stuck in the squeeze.
On 1/28 Thursday when the stock had immense momentum from the moment pre-trading started (the stock shot up to 513 in pre-trading) and it looked like the squeeze was going to happen that day, the momentum was suddenly shut down when Robinhood (where many or potentially majority of retail investors were on) were shut off from the ability to buy GME stock and only allow selling, followed by several other brokers. Many believe this was a result of collusion and that this shut down allowed badly besieged hedge funds to close some positions while the public was shut out of buying (but funds were not.) When this happened people were upset at Robinhood suspecting it was a result of potential collusion between Robinhood and Citadel (which along with Point72 invested a lifeline of 2.5 billion to Melvin Capital, one of the short side funds, and is also responsible for something like 40% of Robinhoods entire revenue by buying their order books), but many also speculated collusion with DTCC itself. Now, personally speaking, its kind of crazy to think about DTCC being complicit in something like this. However, looking into the details of what happened, a skeptical part of me became suspicious.
Apparently what triggered the shut down on trading GME on that day was DTCC sending a letter at 4 am to Robinhood requiring them to come up with 3 billion dollars (https://fortune.com/2021/02/02/robinhood-gamestop-restricted-trading-meme-stocks-gme-amc-vlad-tenev-nscc/) . So it sounds like it was essentially this DTCC letter that led to the shut down of the momentum on GME and the short squeeze happening. On that day, there were theories thrown out that DTCC was potentially complicit in the naked short selling of GME and intentionally did this to stem the massive blow back/scandal if an infinite short squeeze did happen. Assuming the price of share of the price rocketed to 1000 or beyond (which would be likely in the event of a short squeeze or infinite short squeeze), hedge funds would likely go bankrupt as financially speaking there would be no way they would be able to cover all their shorts, and presumably entities that lent the short side hedge fund the shares to short would be holding the bag. Worse, DTCC would be exposed for being complicit in this entire thing, I imagine it would be an incredible scandal to say the least.
Then I read something that caught my eye… DTCC has had a history of being at the center and source of naked shorts. From an article dating back to 2007, “Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. is a little-known institution in the nation's stock markets with a seemingly straightforward job: It is the middleman that helps ensure delivery of shares to buyers and money to sellers. About 99% of the time, trades are completed without incident. But about 1% of the shares -- valued at about $2.5 billion on a given a day -- aren't delivered to the buyer within the requisite three days, for one reason or another. These "failures to deliver" have put DTCC in the middle of a long-running fight over whether unscrupulous investors are driving down hundreds of small companies' share prices.” (Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118359867562957720)
Apparently the DTCC has been known to be allowing or complicit in this action for a very long time. According to Wall Street Journal “There is no dispute that illegal naked shorting happens. The fight is over how prevalent the problem is -- and the extent to which DTCC is responsible. Some companies with falling stock prices say it is rampant and blame DTCC as the keepers of the system where it happens. DTCC and others say it isn't widespread enough to be a major concern.” (Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118359867562957720).
As a thought experiment, lets say naked shorting is rampant in GME (many many indicators point to this) and lets say DTCC was ultimately responsible for allowing a wide scale naked shorting campaign on GME, wouldn’t it be in their best interest to make sure this doesn’t get out and blow up in their faces? Something to consider. Because had they not done what they did on 1/29 Thursday, many traders believe the squeeze would’ve happened that day.
From the Wall Street Journal: “The Securities and Exchange Commission has viewed naked shorting as a serious enough matter to have made two separate efforts to restrict the practice. The latest move came last month, when the SEC further tightened the rules regarding when stock has to be delivered after a sale. But some critics argue the SEC still hasn't done enough… Some delivery failures linger for weeks or months. Until that failure is resolved, there are effectively additional shares of a company's stock rattling around the trading system in the form of the shares credited to the buyer's account, critics say. This "phantom stock" can put downward pressure on a company's share price by increasing the supply… Critics contend DTCC has turned a blind eye to the naked-shorting problem.” (source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB118359867562957720)
From everything I’ve seen, as someone who has been an observer and a participant of this saga starting from 1/26, many things look very fishy and there are a lot of red flags people have documented. I personally hold the following hypothesis:
You might asking yourself now, what I can do? You can:
- Tweet, email or write a letter to your local congressman. Feel free to send them this post if you'd like or summarize the issue for them. Tweet at https://twitter.com/AOC so she's aware of this for the hearings
- Notify the SEC [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
- Contact any journalists you know, forward this post to them, let them know the story and why its significant. If you don't know any journalists, you can drop a tip here https://nypost.com/tips/ and you can just share the link if you'd like.
- Spread the word through word of mouth, twitter, etc. Share this post as much as you can.
Edit 1: Matt Taibi's rolling stone article is highly relevant and good reading on this subject https://www.rollingstone.com/feature/wall-streets-naked-swindle-194908/, parallels on every level. Even if you've read it before, recommend reading it again. Shows me that if the hypothesis posed is true, prime brokers are likely complicit. Prime brokers also happen to own the DTCC.
This brings up another interesting thought experiment. On 1/28 when the price was 450+ and shorts were likely under 100, if we assume prime brokers allowed naking shorting in GME, then if they margin called the shorts, they would go down as well as shorts would not be able to pay and brokers would be holding the bag. They have every incentive in this case to NOT margin call because doing so might also taken them down, instead the most logical option would be to make a backroom deal which is what I personally think likely happened.
Edit 2: A compelling theory put forth by someone on what the 800 dollar calls were for and how they could be used to cancel out naked shorts includes data/graphs, recommend giving it a read
submitted by sfjetsetter to GME [link] [comments]

Lockdown 3.0 Things to do, plus help and support.

Disclaimer I want to thank everyone for the gilds, replies and suggestions. I just do not have time to reply to everyone, but I am reading everything. I am not sure how much bigger the thread can be, I already typed this but it vanished so I think I'm at the limit. I will try to keep updating, but I don't expect the thread to be up top for much longer and will likely vanish soon, so if you need anything save it.
Yes, it's hard, it sucks, it's depressing. It is something we all have to do if you want to see this virus go. Everyone knows the deal, too many think they're the exception but no one is. However, staying home is hard so maybe I can help at least one or two people with some incentives. I'll try to give links to some things that can help cure the boredom, and some support if you need it.
Most of this might be obvious to some, some might not even have internet and of course, money is a big issue, so I'll try to give some suggestions:
For streaming and on demand things such as Netflix et al, don't forget you can subscribe for free for your first month. This goes for most things in the list. If you are worried about putting in your payment details and forgetting to cancel a month later, don't worry! You can sign up and immediately cancel and you still get your free month!
For people who don't have a smart TV, you can buy a cheap Amazon Fire TV stick or a Roku box. The Fire stick can go as low as £20 often for 1080p. It will drop to £30 for 4k.
I picked up a 4k Roku device for £18 on Amazon once. It's fast and snappy. currently it's going for £33 for the 4k version. Having both, there is little difference between the devices. NowTV also do their own roku powered device.
Subscription based streaming sites that all offer 2-4 weeks free for first timers
  • Netflix *According to comments the second month is free.
  • Amazon Prime You can either get Amazon video on its own, or take prime with other benefits. I strongly urge those who use Amazon for buying off their store front to use [https://smile.amazon.co.uk/] as there is literally no difference except everything you buy amazon donates to a charity of your choice.
  • Now TV (I believe it's 7 days)
  • Disney+
  • Britbox
  • Amazon channels. I believe you can get all these individually but Amazon offers them as channels bound to your prime account, and they are again either free for a couple weeks (again, take them, cancel instantly) or very cheap. I recently subscribed to Starzplay for £1 for 3 months. It has some good shows on it like Fringe, doom patrol. It also has channels like Curiosity stream and shudder
If you have not subscribed to the any of the above, you can get a few months of free TV by signing up and cancelling instantly. I suggest waiting at least 5 minutes just to let it go through the system.
Some tips for Now TV. IF you already have a subscription, I've noticed you can get it cheaper by cancelling. When you cancel they will beg you to stay. Select "I can not afford it this month" and they should beg again, telling you what shows they have. If you say you still want to cancel, they'll beg one last time and offer you the subscription for cheaper. This won't work every month, but I've noticed they'll always offer it the first time, then again after a couple months. If you're subscribed to both films and entertainment do the most expensive one as it may not work both times (but it might!). You can also pick up passes from storefronts a lot cheaper sometimes, before I could pick one up on Amazon for £3 but, they seem to have cracked down on it. If you shop around (or if anyone knows of a legitimate store please let me know) you might be able to pick it up cheaper. Lastly, check their website and under your account they should have an "offers for you" section.
Completely free TV
If you do have a smart TV and/or device, there are some good free streaming apps. One I really love is called PlutoTV. I know this is on both Roku and the fire stick, as well as Ps4/Ps5 and xbox.
Pluto offers a bunch of live channels and now an on demand section, all for free. It has adverts but they are actually short (shorter than regular TV and fewer of them). Some of the channels are just streaming certain shows like Mythbusters 24/7 or Dog the bounty hunter, but it has a lot of old movie channels as well as 24/7 kickboxing and MMA. It also has a 24/7 poker channel I quite like.
Another one I like is Rakuten Viki however, I haven't watched it for a while as my fire stick is only 1080p and I have too many other devices attached. I believe it is on Roku but you have to jump through some hoops and have an account. The last I checked on the fire stick you did not. Viki offers a metric ton of Asian shows, mainly from Japan and South Korea but it does have chinese, Malaysian etc. It has subtitles. Some Japanese shows are hysterical, albeit weird.
Roku also do their own channels with free shows if you own a device.
For those who don't have a smart TV or a Streaming device, you can set up your own computer as a dedicated streaming device with Plex. It's been a while since I used it but I believe it now also offers free movies and TV.
Anime
If you are into Anime there is
The first 2 are free to watch, or offer premium without ads which you can have a trial with. Crunchyroll is the better of the two with more original choice for Japanese voice and subs, while Funimation has more Dubs. I don't believe HiDive is free to watch but you do get a 2 week trial. These are more exclusives than the previous two.
PC Centric software
If you are a gamer or like Audiobooks or anything that uses computers for things like music making, programming or graphic design
Humble Bundle offers, as per the name, bundles. A long running site that got bought out by IGN. It offers both single items and bundles you can buy individually/as a pack while also offering a separate monthly subscription for around £8-9. The subscription gives you 12 games on average per month. That's the simplest explanation but it changes somewhat as sometimes you get to pick 10 out of 14 games, or get all 12.
Humble bundle offers more than just games though. Every Tuesday they bring a new bundle of games, while Thursday (I "think) a new bundle of books. They very often have books from the Black Library giving you a ton of Warhammer books. Sometimes it's standard E-books, other times it's audiobooks. A few times a year they do bundles for graphic design, a typical bundle would include programs like Paintshop Pro Corel Painter etc, They usually go for £0.76 for tier 1 up to around £18 for tier 3, which would include 4-6 full titles with 10+ addons. They also often have Music making bundles or video editing software as well as Programming or video game development.
The bundles change often, they usually have around 11 bundles at a time that last for 20 days. Sometimes it's trash but they do often have some very good deals.
Fanatical offers the same as humble bundle except usually not as high quality, but sometimes they do have some incredible deals, and they are very very cheap.
Both humble and fanatical are safe, trusted and been around a long time, and they are NOT grey market key sites. They work with the publishers and developers. You can buy games both old and new for a lot cheaper than you would most other places. Unless it states otherwise, keys are usually for steam.
**BOTH HB and Fanatical (HB much more common) offer free games fairly often. The catch is linking your steam account to them (at least HB). It is safe however.
IndieGala is another site like above. Except, these are much much lower quality. However, they offer a metric ton of free games. Quality is low but it is legitimate, and a lot of free stuff.
Game Store Fronts
  • Steam This one is so obvious I didn't add it, but apparently many want me to. It is the best out there, and you can find almost everything, with fantastic deals.
  • Greenmangaming offers games cheaply. Again, not a grey market site (which are legal but unethical) and they sometimes do bundles.
  • GoG (Good old games) is a DRM free site run by CDPR, the makers of the Witcher 3 and Cyberpunk. They offer you games quite cheap and not needing DRM (such as Steam, Uplay etc which is less invasive versions of dodgy DRM from the olden days).
  • Epic Games Despite the controversy whether you care about their rivalry with valve, they offer free games ever week. Without ever having bought anything I have gained over 170 games. literally. Good games for the most part. They often give you £10 coupons as well.
  • Twitch Everyone knows twitch, but if you don't, it's a streaming service for watching gamers and girls with low cut tops accidentally bending over in front of the game. However, if you're signed up to prime, you get free games each month (and randomly between the set bunch).
  • Playstation Store Currently has January sales. Currently the free games for PS+ are for PS4: Shadow of the Tomb Raider and Greedfall. For the Ps5 it is Maneater
  • Games with Gold Bleed 2 and the King of Fighters XIII is available until Janurary 15th whilst little Nightmares is available until January 31st.
Gaming Subscriptions
Like the TV versions, you can sign up to these for a free trial (or very cheap). If you do sign up to only one at a time, it should keep you busy for a few months
  • Xbox Game Pass You can do this on both/either an Xbox or PC. If you sign up to the regular one, you can get a month (maybe three!) for £1. After you have done that, you can sign up to the premium version for 3 months at £1 a month. Most people know game pass, but you can download a large selection of games for free. The premium version gives you games with gold, allowing you to keep the games forever (but can only play with a subscription)
  • Ubisoft+ I'm not 100% sure if you get a trial or not. This allows a large collection of Ubisoft titles to play for £12.99 a month. Quite expensive but good if you like Ubisoft titles I guess.
  • EA Play EA's version. Goes by a ton of names I think, EA Access, EA Play, Origin Access etc etc. There's a couple of versions of this, and it is across all platforms (PS4/5, Xbox, PC) but not sure about the switch. I "think" the premium allows you to play on all platforms, while the cheaper one on a single platform, but I may be mistaken.
  • PS Now a once terrible service that is now actually very good. Allows you to download some Ps4 games to your PS4/5 and lets you stream a massive amount of Ps2/3/4 to your PC or playstation.
There's more like nvidia's service but you need the Shield device which is quite expensive. I'll leave it at that.
Audiobooks & Ebooks
  • Audible Not sure what the current deal is but if you are a prime member you can sign up for a trial and get a free Audiobook each month for 3 months. Some warhammer books are 48 hours long, 3 of those gives you a good 100+ hours of listening!
  • Comixology Another Amazon company, but lets you download some free comics I believe.
  • Marvel Unlimited No experience with this. ItFuckingWont wanted me to add it. A subscription service for Marvel.
Education
  • Sign Language BSL here No experience myself, suggested by n21brown and asked for a few times. Didn't know SL was so popular! Listed as "Pay what you can"
  • BBC's Bitesize here is apparently good for home learning. Again, no personal experience.
If you need some spare change
Okay, I don't generally bother with it, but maybe some of this could be useful to you. These are NOT a quick way to make a fortune. These are small things you can do over time for a bit of pocket change
  • If you have prime you can get a FREE FIVE POUND GIFT CARD by literally just streaming a song from Amazon music (which is included in prime) here is the details According to the comments it's only for select people, but it's worth trying If the link doesn't work for you just google "Amazon £5 coupon music"
  • Now, these sorts of sites have been around for years, I haven't used any other than talkInsights which I must have signed up to 10-15 years ago. Basically they send you surveys and you answer them. They are confidential and don't ask for personal details in the survey. You need 2000 points and you get £20. During the pandemic they've slowed down but I probably get around £40 a year. Not much I know, but it's an email followed by a quick survey ticking boxes. Depending on your answer sometimes you get screened out, I'm not telling you to lie but just be consistent with your answers and you should be able to work out how to not get screened. Some emails are only worth 20 points, others 200. It's slow to get to the 2000 but very quick to just answer a few questions.
  • Apparently beermoneyuk is a good sub to make some pocket change with.
  • There is also matched betting. I have never done this, I don't have the patience but from what I've read, it's legitimate, it works and you can make a fair amount of cash from it so long as you do it correctly, and there's a ton of guides. I mention this because people stuck at home could get into it and as long as you're careful (I.E not entering in the wrong numbers) it's risk free AND it pisses off the betting shops. It seems people in comments have had success with it. Disclaimer A couple have complained about gambling. This arguably is not gambling. If you are susceptible to addiction do not do it. However, it's argued that there is no fun or buzz in this, and it's a very tedious and time consuming thing. Others argue you can't make the same money anymore (People were making thousands, now only hundreds if that). It's risk free providing you know what you're doing, the risks are user error, such as entering the wrong numbers. Someone pointed out that due to the lockdown, bets could potentially be cancelled due to sport stopping. So use on a side of caution. We're (mainly) adults so I'll leave it up just because this doesn't have the excitement of regular gambling.
  • Microsoft Rewards This is an easy way to make pocket change doing very little. Most people have a MS account. The rewards program offers you numerous ways to grab points, by playing free to play games, answering small questions (you don't even need to answer most of the time, just open the link and shut it) and by using bing and searching on it. I've gotten 20k points JUST by answering questions over a couple months. There are many rewards but you can grab a £5 gift card for 6k for example, or a month of game pass (and AFAIK you can make points playing the games)
  • Google rewards Someone mentioned this in the comments. I have not used it, so can not give any input on it. Sounds similar to TalkInsights which I linked. Google states "Complete short surveys while standing in line, or waiting for a subway. Get rewarded with Google Play or PayPal credit for each one you complete. Topics include everything from opinion polls, to hotel reviews, to merchant satisfaction surveys. We’ll notify you when a survey is waiting."
That's it for now. I will try to update as I go along. A long post but I hope that it can help some of you with finding something good to do that's free, cheap or a bargain. I do suggest getting prime, especially since you get free music, free delivery, free TV and music and free video games each month. In fact, there's a ton of perks and I feel I've gotten way over the cost investment.
Hope it helps someone at least
PartTimeCrazy said if you bought an Apple product you get 3 free months of Apple Arcade and Apple TV free for a year
fakehunted is upset I didn't mention wanking. Tesco have 225 sheets of Tissue for £0.75!
tale_lost suggested Project Gutenberg for a collection of free E-Books
Learning Language
Unfortunately, I don't have time to check every link listed so I will link the comments:
Togtogtog Gives a lot of links for Spanish
Board & Tabletop games
Corporal_Anaesthetic has made a list of Board games
ilyemco suggested these
HEALTH
I'm not a doctor! But if you're a smoker, something I strongly suggest is to quit. I struggled for years but in the first lockdown I quit, technically. I haven't had a cigarette since, however, I do that silly thing millennials do. I vape, but, it made quitting extremely easy. I would not have been able to do it if it wasn't for 88Vape They sell extremely cheap liquids at £1 each. You can find these in B&M but you can pick up 25 for £20 or buy your own mix.
Vitamin D deficiency has been said to be a big problem for the virus. I'd suggest (again, not a doctor!) that you pick some up. Tesco do a 3 for 2 deal. So you can pick up 270 tablets for £7.
If you are vulnerable you MIGHT be able to phone tesco and get put on their delivery saver list (currently it's paused but phoning may help. At the very least they might give you a priority slot. I did this for my mum, we didn't shop at Tesco but I phoned for her, and they put her on with no hassle, so she can always get a delivery.
HELP & ADVICE
The lockdown Rules.
Reasons to leave home include:
  • Work or volunteering where it is "unreasonable" to work from home. This includes work in someone else's home, such as that carried out by social workers, nannies, cleaners and tradespeople
  • Education, training, childcare and medical appointments and emergencies
  • Exercise outdoors (limited to once a day). This includes meeting one other person from another household in an open public space to exercise
  • Shopping for essentials such as food and medicine
  • Communal religious worship
  • Meeting your support or childcare bubble. Children can also move between separated parents Activities related to moving house
I want to add, if you are in danger you are also allowed (and must!) to get away from the situation for some reason, BBC seems to have missed this very important thing (or I am blind)
Support
FOR THOSE SHIELDING YOU CAN CONTACT THE ROYAL VOLUNTARY SERVICE. These people helped my mother with picking up her medicine from the chemist. They were very helpful and went out their way to keep in touch and do it immediately. (It's the only experience I have with them though)
_riotingpacifist wanted these links added, but I simply just don't have the time to vet and check all the suggestions here, so I will link as is:
Update:
Digital Art
These are Free
  • Krita Arguably the best in my opinion. It has a load of options, brushes and a decent UI. It works fantastic with a tablet.
  • Gimp This is a decent program but last I used, the UI was a pain, and it isn't so user friendly while misses features, but it works, and it is possible to do some incredible creations on it.
  • Medibang Paint This is slightly geared towards Comics and Manga. I really enjoy using this with my drawing Tablet. As far as I know, it also for regular tablets for Android/Ipad and is free.
You can pick up a drawing tablet on Amazon quite cheap these days! Small ones that are just a black slate such as the wacom ones are good but takes some practice to get use to, but very worth it if you can't afford a dedicated drawing tablet with a screen.
Office suit software
A couple of free applications for word processing, spreadsheets etc.
  • LibreOffice This has most the average user would need to write their own books or to work from home. There's not a huge amount of difference between the two I'm linking (since I last used anyway) so it's more for preference.
  • Open Office You can pick this up here and again, like above it's just preference.
Music Making
I'm going to direct to matthewharris806 for some links as all the programs I've used like Reason are expensive, or cheaper stuff in bundles such as Magix software.
Games development
D_Dad_Default gives some links for that here
submitted by MrSoapbox to unitedkingdom [link] [comments]

My Options Overview / Guide (V2)

Greeting Theta Gang boys and girls,
I hope you're well and not bankrupt after last week. I'm just now recovering mentally myself. I saw a few WSB converts and some newbies asking for tips, so here you go. V2 of my Options guide. I hope it helps.

I spent a huge amount of time learning about options and tried to distill my knowledge down into a helpful guide. This should especially be useful for newbies and growing options traders.
While I feel I’m a successful trader, I'm not a guru and my advice is not meant to be gospel, but this will hopefully be a good starting point, teach you a lot, and make you a better trader. I plan to keep typing up more info from my notebook, expanding this guide, and posting it every couple months.
Any feedback or additions are appreciated
Per requests, I added details of good and bad trades I made. Some painful lessons learned are now included. I also tried to organize this better as it got longer.
Here's what I tell options beginners:
I would strongly recommend buying a beginner's options book and read it cover to cover. That helped me a lot.
I like this beginner book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GWSXX8U/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_OxNDFb2GK9YW7
Helpful websites:
Don't trade until you understand:
Basics / Mechanics
General Tips and Ideas:
Profit Retention / Loss Mitigation
Trade Planning & Position Management Tips
-Advanced Beginner-
Spreads
Trading Mechanics, Taxes, Market Manipulation
-Intermediate / Advanced Strategies (work in progress)-
You’ll notice many of these strategies inverse one another.
Options Strategy Finder
This website is great for learning about new strategies, you’ll see many links to it below.
https://www.theoptionsguide.com/option-trading-strategies.aspx
Short Strangle / Straddle
Iron Condor and Iron Butterflies
Long Condor (Debit Call Condor)
Short Condor (Credit Call Condor)
Reverse Iron Condor
LEAPs
PMCC / PMCP
Advanced Orders

Disclaimer:
I’m not a financial adviser, I'm actually an engineer. I’m not telling you to invest in a specific stock/option or even use a specific strategy. I’ve outlined and more extensively elaborated on what I personally like. You should test several strategies and find what works best for you.
I'm just a guy who trades (mainly options) part-time for financial gain and fun. I don't claim to be some investing savant.
submitted by CompulsionOSU to thetagang [link] [comments]

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