Abbreviation Index:

BB -- Blackberry
AWS -- Amazon Web Services
IVY -- Intelligent Vehicles Yo. I don't actually know if this stands for anything
QNX -- Quick-Unix perhaps? It's a Unix-like embedded microkernel RTOS (real-time operating system)
EOY -- end of year
PT -- price target
SP -- stock price
EV -- electric vehicle
SoC -- System on a Chip
IoT -- Internet of Things
TL;DR: Blackberry ($BB) is almost daily announcing new partnerships and new clients for their software, including new deals with companies that are just now or just this year launching autonomous vehicles that run on QNX software. The big kahuna of all these deals is BB's recent partnership with Amazon to go 50/50 into BB's software IVY, a scalable cloud-connected software platform designed for intelligent vehicle data gathering and data sharing. With Amazon's Jeff Bezos stepping down, and Andy Jassy filling his shoes, who was the CEO of AWS, BB will have some very firm support behind Amazon's new CEO. BB and Amazon are having a webinar Feb. 23rd about their partnership and IVY, which should be a strong catalyst moving forward. IVY beta earnings are projected to begin impacting BB's Q3 or Q4 earnings beginning in November this year, with IVY fully being integrated around the 2023 timeframe. Through a lot of reading and analysis, I believe BB has a four-tiered business model dating back as far as 2013 when BB's CEO John Chen was hired to begin the massive BB turnaround process. Tier 1 was development of QNX and IVY, lasting from 2013 to today and onward, however, Tier 2 overlaps Tier 1. Tier 2 was customer acquisition, primarily distributing their secure software in QNX, SecuSuite, Spark, and AtHoc. They secured 37 automakers during this time, including 9 of the top 10 automakers, over 106 governments from around the world, including all of G7 governments and 18 of G20 governments, as well as 77% of Fortune 100 companies, including partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, NVIDIA, Intel, Qualcomm, Baidu, IBM, LG, Samsung, and others. Well if they have such an incredible market share, why are they so undervalued? The answer is that QNX was not the end-all-be-all product. It was the base that the rest would be built on. Particularly IVY, which is the real money-maker. Tier 3 is IVY beta, and Tier 4 is IVY distribution and subscription revenue streams. So why is IVY the big deal and not QNX? They are both big deals, but QNX was never designed to be the money-maker. They are charging a one-time fee per vehicle use. There is a bigger goal here, to secure their clients as their customers for the bigger product in IVY. They also need QNX is to be a secure system in order for IVY to be trustworthy and reliable. And it certainly is secure. QNX has ISO26262 certification, as well as US government clearance, NSA clearance, and CIA clearance. The US government uses QNX and Blackberry products. Just let that sink in. That should tell you something about its security. Anyways, IVY will be used in autonomous vehicle level 4 and level 5 communication (note that QNX is level 5 certified... it has a business moat just in its security level and clearance), as well as EV and gas vehicle data collecting and AI-powered data synthesis. See below for more details on IVY. Wrapping up this TL;DR, BB is going to do well this year as IVY unfolds, but will do even better in the next 2-5 years. I have a PT of 25 by EOY and a PT of 80 by 2023 EOY, and a PT of 160+ by 2025 EOY
TL;DR: TL;DR: BB go up, but go slow for now because IVY revenue not here yet, but big fast later. Make big monies, BB is the future tech that Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc will be building upon in the EV and IoT market

FAQs:

1) Why is Blackberry stock price going down?
A: A few possible reasons. One, as of today the whole market is down. BB is connected to overall market swings as most companies are. Two, there may be some market manipulation by bearish financial institutions as there are a lot of calls expiring on 2/19. I would expect that BB SP to be volatile between $11 and $14 between now and then, and to move upwards after 2/19 and especially after 2/23 (Amazon + BB webinar). Three, there are bearish investors who still think BB is a phone company and don't understand the underworkings of BB's business strategy, their software, their patents, or their partners. Their revenue has been affected by coronavirus and has not been particularly phenomenal so far this year.
2) Should I invest now or later?
A: First off, I'm not a financial advisor, these are just my opinions. Invest at your own risk. In my opinion, BB will see a large SP growth by EOY, anywhere from 50% to 150% growth by EOY. While revenue will likely not increase much this year, the partnership with Amazon and news regarding IVY will likely create new floors for their SP much higher than the current SP right now, at around the $12 SP
3) What's stopping competitors from building a similar product and hurting BB's business?
A: There's a lot of reasons why BB has a huge moat right now. One, notice the partners that BB has with QNX. They've got all the big boys working them, aside from Apple and Tesla. Seeing as SpaceX runs on QNX, and seeing that Apple was trying to make a deal with Hyundai that did not go through, I think it is still possible that either Tesla or Apple or both companies could also make a deal with BB to use QNX as their OS system. BB worked to develop their QNX embedded microkernel OS for the last eight years or so. Anyone trying to step into the game now is far too late. Apple has the best chance of all companies, as it has its own OS and Apple knows security very well, but this still requires an entirely new system in order to work in the EV sector. Also, Apple announced recently that they would be developing their own EV, although they did not give much details beyond that statement. The likelihood that they are both working on the hardware and software side of this thing is slim given the large number of difficulties that come with certification as it relates to the cybersecurity software space. Regardless, I would suspect that either Apple or Tesla is the most likely to be competitors in this space, but neither company has successfully completed a certified OS system, particularly for the emerging sector of autonomous EVs. Tesla is currently building a Linux-based system that is having a lot of difficulty in passing certifications such as ISO26262, a struggle that has been ongoing for years now. They may achieve a product that passes these safety regulations and certifications, but the question remains whether this will be in time as the EV and autonomous market picks up speed, and whether competing companies would even be interested in using their product. In fact, any car company is unlikely to develop their own OS software because none of their competitors would be likely to use it. BB is the perfect business to license since it is not competing in the hardware sector for the EV market. This argument can also be used for Apple if they are also building an EV.
4) Why is BB's revenue so low if they have so many customers and partners?
A: QNX has been licensed so far as a one-time purchase, per vehicle or IoT using their software. IVY will be a subscription-based software that also includes a one-time purchase. Thus, BB's revenue streams are somewhat unimpressive currently, but they are playing the long game. If my hypothesis is correct, it is John Chen's goal to lay low as software is developed and customer relationships are built. It's the same with the book market. It's the sequel that makes all the money, not the first book. QNX is just the first book of a series looking to hook in its customers with low costs before hitting 'em with the strong follow up in IVY. Additionally, in order to build a competitive business moat, it was to their advantage to not forewarn any competitors of their involvement and plans. Consider John Chen's work as a CEO in his last business Sybase. Chen worked as the CEO of Sybase for 10 years. For the first 7 years, the SP remained at around $10 a share. Three years later, the SP was at $100 a share. I suspect he is implementing a similar model with Blackberry. Chen joined Blackberry in 2013. BB stock actually dropped for most of the last 7 years, resting at a stock price of around $5. Now BB is at $12 a share. I would not be surprised if BB reaches $50 two years from now.

Now for the details.

Read this for DD on BB's achievements, certifications, markets, QNX products, EV growth, Spark software and clients, BB Radar, software pricing, and BB challenges:
Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years

Full List of Clients and Partners:

Blackberry Clients and Partners
Automakers: Honda, Audi, Jeep, Mitsubishi, Ford, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Bentley, Lamboghini, Byton, Mini (cooper), Toyota, Subaru, Fiat Chrysler, Mazda, Nio, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Kia, Land-Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Buick, Jaguar, Visteon, Skoda, Chevrolet, Nissan, Acura, Continental, General Motors, Baidu, Motional
Other: Denso, Aptiv, Bosch, Panasonic, Harman, Bugatti, LG, Vodafone, Bell, Carahsoft, CACI, Telus, iSec, KPMG, Tableau, Qlik
Major: Amazon, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, Li Auto, NVIDIA, Canoo, Microsoft, Intel, Verizon, Qualcomm, IBM, LG, Samsung
Major Investors: PRIMECAP, Hamblin Watsa, Ontario Teachers’ Pension, Vanguard, Harris Associates, ETF Managers Group, Wells Capital, Arrowstreet Capital, Kahn Brothers Advisors, Norges Bank Investment
Governments: Albania, Andorra, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Congo, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Gabon, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Greece, Guadeloupe, Hong Kong, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Kuwait, Latvia, Lesotho, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Marthinique, Mauritania, Mauritus, Mayotte, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Réunion, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, USA, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Vatican City, Western Sahara, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Blackberry Current Revenues:

BlackBerry Revenues: How Does BlackBerry Make Money? -- Trefis
This display the biggest bearish argument to BB. Until IVY begins producing new revenue streams, BB is likely to not exponentially increase revenue streams, but only sustain moderate YoY growth

Blackberry Analysis Regarding Infotainment and Google and Ford Deal:

see "Blackberry (BB) Stock News Analysis | What I need to say..." by Financial Live by LEYA on the forbidden video website
The media recently picked out a story that left out a lot of pertinent information, making it seems that BB lost Ford as a client. This is not true. QNX is designed to be a SoC. This means that other operating systems, such as Linux or Android, can be easily added to QNX. It is in fact encouraged. The Ford and Google deal was simply announcing the Ford would be using Android as their infotainment system. I believe that BB was never intended to try and be the predominant entity for all software systems in EVs or IoTs, but the backbone that connects all together, and to protect all components in a secure system. Autonomous EVs and even regular EVs in general would not be possible without a secure system protecting the product, as is true with IoTs. This is also why things like US Fighter Jets run on... you guess it, QNX. Ford is still using QNX. It is simply also now using Android that is running on top of QNX more commentary on this: Analyzing Blackberry Bear Argument - Case No. 1: Ford Deal

Pretty Charts

The New BlackBerry Everyone is Talking About $BB

Facebook Settlement with BB

Image
This is an interesting one to be sure. Facebook was being evil, like the do, and were caught using a number of BB patents. They settled in February, and the day that the settlement was finalized, John Chen (BB CEO) tweeted reminding everyone that BB is used on the ISS
https://twitter.com/JohnChen/status/1358853064153784321?s=20
Well, the connection and speculation here is that Blackberry is going to the moon, and that the settlement is rather significant. Someone else also dug out some information in Facebook's most recent 10-K, specifically a portion for a 'non-cancelable contractual commitment' of an amount of $7500 million dollars. That's 7.5 billion btw. We don't know how big the settlement is, but it is worth noting that BB's entire market cap is 7.5B. I highly doubt that a settlement would reach such lofty numbers, but it could be possible that FB settled for some initial amount of $1B or so, as well as $1B in reoccurring payments over several years. We won't know until March 15th actually, so stay tuned.

Blackberry New Partnerships

Within the last few weeks, Blackberry has announced a stronger partnership with Baidu (China's Google), as well as their involvement with Baidu choosing to use QNX for their autonomous vehicles that will be hitting the road, as early as this year and next. BB has also announced their involvement with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv, which will use QNX for their autonomous vehicles. Motional will be partnering with Lyft to use autonomous vehicles to begin serving customers and will be deploying their vehicles in 2023. It was also announced that QNX will be working with AOSP (Android Open Source Project), as well as announcing yesterday that QNX Hypervisor 2.2 is now released, which is what allows Android and Linux to run on top of QNX.
A sum-up of all the recent news on $BB

BB's Technical Page on QNX Security

Link
Very technical. But cool stuff.

Rumor: Blackberry Buyout? Here's why that's not happening:

Just read this post. It's quite revealing:
Great Day for BB despite stick dipping.
TL;DR: Amazon could have easily bought BB. Why didn't they? Well, all the big players are interested in this EV and IoT emerging sector. This is the new wave of technology that will dominate the market. First we had the dot.com boom, then the cell-phone and smart-phone market, and now we have the autonomous EV and IoT market. If Amazon were to buy BB, they would have to submit a tender offer. This would be a red flag to all the big players that Amazon were trying to buy up the best security out there. It would be a bidding war that could result in a double-digit multi-billion dollar buyout. It was much more to their advantage to create a secret alliance with BB and establish a 50/50 partnership, whose contract includes exclusivity for their use of IVY. Ouch! That's gotta hurt. This is where the importance of QNX lies. BB will be able to pull the rug out from any company that chooses to use something other than IVY. No IVY, no QNX, no EV. It will be a package deal where IVY is the big money maker. All other companies will have to build from the ground up or be forced to license QNX and make their money off of other sectors, such as the infotainment sector, as Google has already begun to do with the Ford deal. When this deal happened, the other big boys wet their pants realizing they needed to get into this space, and fast. Microsoft partnered with Cruise/GM. Apple tried to partner with Hyundai, who was so flattered, they may have initially said yes or indicated so, before realizing that they were already partnered with BB, so it was a no-go. Not sure if that is fact or fiction, but it is an interesting proposal.

Blackberry IVY + AWS Partnership:

Alright, so what's the deal with IVY? Why is it going to be so profitable? Why is IVY the real money-maker, while QNX has been used as the customer-acquisition software tool? Check out this picture:
Image
For one, IVY is designed for real-time communication between EVs or other IoTs. Autonomous driving level 5 requires vehicles to communicate with one another. This is where IVY comes in. IVY connects the different software components of an EV (which presumably are running on QNX), as well as harvesting data on those systems. The data used can be distributed for a wide-variety of uses, including, but not limited to, automakers and suppliers, app developers, consumer services, smart cities, EV charging providers, insurance companies, and vehicle maintenance providers. All of these different sectors will be willing to pay subscriptions for these data services, as well as the automakers and IoT makers who will also be willing to pay subscriptions for IVY. For instance, IVY can help share information between vehicles that will allow for a car detecting ice roads in one area so that other cars using IVY can take a different route. This results in less crashes, which helps the automakers. Insurance companies can use data from all these different data points as well, allowing them an inside-view of their clients. The list of what is possible here is inexhaustible.
As for price points, the subscription models for multiple outside companies wanting to use the data will be create huge revenue streams for BB. With Amazon as a 50/50 partner, and with their resources and strategic management, BB will be poised to be the foundation in security and data sharing for the entire EV, and somewhat of the IoT market (the IoT market has more competitors for sure)
see "Is BlackBerry Stock Undervalued?" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website
see "Roadmap to $180 a share (BlackBerry Stock)" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website

Revenue, revenue, revenue...

Blackberry is poised to be an industry leader in EV, government, and IoT security and data sharing with products such as QNX, IVY, Spark, and their other software products. Stock price will likely stay somewhat stunted until IVY revenue begins picking up. It is possible that more announcements and marketing related to IVY will make this growth more rapid. In my opinion, either way BB over the next 5 years will 10x. The question is whether you want to get in now at $12 / share or two years from now at $40 a share or something similar, assuming that either way this stock is going to push for that 100B market cap (it's currently at 7B). There will be bearish analysts that will continue to say that Blackberry is a worthless company until those IVY revenue streams begin to come in. It is also possible that a realistic competitor may emerge within the next three years, such as Tesla or Apple. But if Apple is seeking to create its own EV product, then both companies will have a hard time finding any way to license their software to any other company. It remains possible that Apple and/or Tesla may strikes deals with BB as well in order to be able to produce autonomous vehicles and get a bite of that market share

Really, no competitors?

Well it's called a business moat for a reason. As we have recently seen, QNX is working with AOSP, and so clearly, they are not to be worried about. Tesla is not a true competitor as their OS product is not certified yet, and has demonstrated difficulty in doing so, and additionally, other automakers will not want to benefit their competitors by using their product. A third-party non-auto-maker will be much more desirable. Other companies such as VxWorks, have a lot of to prove both in security and certifications, as well as producing an OS product that is compatible with an emerging autonomous level 5 EV market. QNX's embedded microkernel RTOS is very much unique in this regard. This type of system allows for real-time processing and power distribution, while protecting the system from attacks. In an embedded microkernel system, if one part of the system is attacked, the whole system will not shut down, in layman's terms. This is essential for the security of any high-risk product that is built upon an underlying software that controls that different components of the system.

Conclusion:

All eyes are turned towards Blackberry right now. People want to know what this deal with Amazon will look like, how it will work, what they will focus on, (will Amazon also use this system for a fleet of delivery drones? hmmm), what the revenue streams will look like, what are their projections, what markets and sectors are they targeting, what are their future goals, what will Amazon be doing on their end, etc, etc. The Amazon + BB webinar may answer some of those questions, or maybe they won't. Time will tell (Feb. 23rd, specifically -- here's a link to sign up and watch: Next-Gen Vehicle Architectures Unlock Unprecedented Opportunities for Automakers). Also look out for that FB settlement numbers on March 15th, and Q4 earnings March 31st. I don't expect Q4 earnings to be particularly interesting unless they include the FB settlement numbers. Could those numbers instead be put into Q1 earnings for 2021? Possibly.
Initially IVY beta is expected to begin being released late this year. I will also be looking forward to see how Apple and Tesla respond in the coming months. Ultimately, BB is a long-term play, but is poised to dominate this emerging industry with the partnerships and security focused software they have secretly been building. Now if only the could do something about their logo, some rebranding would be nice...
This is not financial advice, just my own opinions. I am not a financial advisor nor a professional. I own 14k shares in Blackberry, as well as options (10x 8/17/21 20c BB). Do your own DD and fact check me as well

I’m a semi-avid Warhammer 40k player and the game has been hit by a number of small, cumulating drama bits over the last few years, so I thought I’d write them out here in case anyone was interested in learning about them.
Disclaimer: I do have some strong opinions on the drama and I have done my best to keep things neutral in this post. Please do feel free to call me out if I let my thoughts about the Stupidface McSpaceymarines show too much.
Background information:
Warhammer 40k is a tabletop miniature game distributed by Games Workshop (GW). The poster children of 40k have long been Space Marines: the elite, genetically augmented human super-soldiers and it is around them that this story revolves. Warhammer 40k is currently in its 9th edition, with rules for each army distributed in its codex.
The factions in Warhammer can be broken down into 3 broad categories. Remember this for later. As listed on GW’s website, they are: the Imperium (all flavors of “good guy” humans, including the aforementioned Space Marines), Chaos (daemons and fallen humans), and Xenos (myriad alien races, including Egyptian robot zombies, communist fish weebs shogunate cow weebs , clown elves, and British soccer hooligan orks).
In 2017, GW’s general manager stepped down and new company leadership took over. This is where our story begins. For a while it was good: GW was making record profits, fans were fairly happy, and the hobby seemed in a good place. Then players started realizing that something didn’t smell quite right.
8th Edition and the coming of the Primaris:
8e was released in June 2017, with the new rulebook alongside a Space Marine codex and “Index” books with units for all other armies, so nobody had to wait to play their respective faction. The indices were bare-bones and contained few of the abilities, relics, and special rules that each faction would receive when their full codex was released.
8th edition was also heralded with an entirely new line of Space Marine models, the “Primaris.” These are the tacticool bigger brothers of the “oldmarines” and a massive refresh of the aging Space Marine model line. They are bigger, badder, and shootier. Primaris marines were a hit and sold extremely well and GW profits reach new heights.
Over the next year and a half, a new faction’s Codex would release every 3-6 weeks. In a game with 20+ factions, this meant - if you were lucky - you’d get full access to your army’s abilities/relics/units in 6 months. Most armies were covered by the time the edition had been out a year. Depending on whom you ask, this is either an unacceptably long time to wait or surprisingly quick compared to previous editions. At this point, fan morale was fairly high: we saw lots of quality new content, a more-responsive and friendly community face, and promises of hotly-demanded future releases (whooo Sisters!). GW released a steady stream of new Primaris models throughout this edition, flushing out the new line.
Capitalizing on the popularity of Primaris, GW took the previously-unheard-of step and released new, turned-up-to-11 Marine codices in 2019, as well as 6 extra Space Marine sub-faction supplements and a new Chaos Space Marine codex. The meta had been fairly healthy and consistently evolving, but these supplements resulted in massive imbalance, buffing a specific Space Marine chapter so much that it near-exclusively dominated tournaments until it was patched. In retrospect, this was a sign of things to come.
The long-awaited Sisters of Battle also came out in fall 2019 (whose preorder sold out within minutes) and an expansion called “Psychic Awakening” was released from Oct 2019-July 2020. It was neat lore-wise and contained a few new rules/units, but not otherwise noteworthy.
The Gathering Storm:
9th edition was released in July 2020, but was touted as an “8.5e” where your old books and rules would still be valid, with some modifications as to the game itself. This was met with general good will from the players, as the books they bought a month earlier wouldn’t be instantly outdated. As is tradition, it was released with a new, now third Space Marine codex and one for the Necrons (the aforementioned Egyptian zombie robots), as well as a box set containing new units for each army. Unfortunately, this is also where the crux of our drama kicks in.
The release box set contained incredibly powerful and divisive Primaris units, Eradicators, which could only be obtained from this $200 USD box. Eradicators are an anti-tank unit new to 9th edition whose mere existence single handedly pushed tanks/armoured units and the factions that relied on them out of the meta.
Additional criticism came because the design of the Eradicators came across as “stealing” a specialist xenos unit - Eldar Fire Dragons. For perspective, Fire Dragons and Eradicators cost about the same in-game and have the same role, but Eradicators output far more damage at a longer range and are significantly harder to kill. Fire Dragon models are also 30 years old and look it; the Eldar range is one of the oldest still sold and in desperate need of updating. Understandably, Eldar players were upset. The box also contained the extremely powerful Bladeguard, but they went largely ignored due to the fecal storm Eradicators kicked up.
GW then doubled down. Unlike in the previous editions, where the supplement books were saved until the vast majority of codices were released, GW chose to near-exclusively prioritize releasing the Marine supplements, resulting in months of only new Marine books. By now, the strategy was clear: the Primaris money printer was in full BRRR mode. At the time of this writing, seven months into 9th edition, the following rule books are available: 1 xenos faction, 1 chaos faction, 0 Imperium, and 5 Space Marine.
Oh...wait. Did I separate Space Marines from Imperium, despite saying above that they’re all one happy family? Apparently not so much. During all of this, GW’s website broke Space Marines out into their own, separate 4th listing that is categorized on top of all other Imperium, chaos, and xenos factions.
Players began to notice the trend in model releases more and more, as if the Eradicators were the watershed moment. Since 8e, Marines alone have received the vast plurality/majority of new model releases over the last 3+ years. Remember, they’re still just one faction of about 20 who are now receiving the support of the other 19 combined. While the new Primaris line was positively received initially, the constant drumbeat of new Space Marines with only token attention to other factions began to drive a wedge between players and blowing up grimdank with memes. Even factions that got large rework releases paled in comparison.
Other players questioned why so many new Marines were being released when armies were stuck with aged resin models that date back to the Clinton administration (and much older than the pre-Primaris Marines). For example, older armies were stuck with models like this. Worse, GW’s brand of resin (FineCast) is commonly referred to as “FailCast” in the community due to its poor quality and difficulty to work with. This feeling of neglect hit xenos players in particular, though some Imperial factions also had good reason to be upset at the quality of their old old models.
Rumbles in the Warp:
In retrospect, there were a number of warning signs from GW that issues were brewing. A Hobby Drama post could probably be written about any of these individual events, but here is a TL;DR of each:

• The app - GW recently released a long-awaited mobile app that has been plagued with rules errors, intense attempted monetization, and was missing key features like army builders. In GW’s defense, they have been improving it regularly and providing many features for free in the meantime.
  
• Hiding price hikes as “localization” - in response to Brexit and the weakening GBP, GW adopted a locally-based pricing model that came with hidden and significant price hikes in other countries. Fun story: it was cheaper for me to buy models off of their UK website, pay to have them shipped to a reshipping company, and pay for the reshipping and any import taxes to the US rather than to purchase them directly. A lot cheaper.
  
• The Primaris Lieutenant - a meme that emerged after GW released model after model for the same in-game unit (one that most armies would never need more than a couple of), each with slightly different poses. Criticism centered around the idea that the resources to constantly remake this same unit could have been better-allocated.
  
• Death of the Phoenix - a rare xenos vs xenos box set that starred 1 updated hero and 1 updated infantry unit each. Hurray! Except the box was also chock full of less-popular and very old models that there was little demand for. Many still sit unsold on store shelves.
  
• Hobby fatigue and the Bore-us Heresy - with so many rapid-fire Marine releases, some players complained of difficulty keeping pace with both money to buy them and time devoted to modeling. Worse, Marines have been pushed so hard for so long, they have come to dominate the meta such that Marine vs. Marine games are commonplace, which can become repetitive or dull.
  
• Forgotten weapon updates - Several Imperial/Chaos weapons were significantly buffed at the start of 9e, with GW promising to do the same for identical xenos gear...except, when the update came, they hadn’t. The changes appeared haphazard and were missing many weapons that players had reasonably expected to be included. (Sidenote: my personal theory is that they paid an intern to ctrl+f weapon names for updating, but said intern didn’t realize that the names can change based on the faction. For example, this is why the update to flamers was correctly mapped to the Eldar “Dragon’s breath flamer” but the “melta gun” update didn’t apply to the identical-in-all-but-name “fusion gun.” Oops.)
  

In Defense of Marines:
Players on the pro-Marine side frequently point out that a good cause for their preferential treatment exists: money. Undoubtedly, Marines are the most successful single product line, and can you blame GW for milking it? The equally-common counterargument is that it’s a chicken-and-egg issue: that Marines are only the top seller because they get the majority of the new kits, updates, and advertising.
Defenders of GW point to a number of other factors on their side: promises of future updates to other factions, that very real possibility Covid may be affecting production, and that older editions have been far more sluggish with content. They also point out that the Necron and Sisters of Battle factions each have received much-needed new model refreshes in the last few years, albeit nowhere near as expansive as their own. Marines were certainly in need of updating when the Primaris line was introduced and it went a long way in helping the supersoldiers fit their lore on the tabletop.
While some Marine players were initially concerned that the pre-Primaris armies that they dumped thousands of dollars and at least 3 hours into painting would be suddenly outdated or unusable, GW has continued to support them and point to this as a sign of goodwill.
Finale:
Unfortunately, there has been no real happy ending to this drama. For some players, the lack of resolution has caused them to hit a stage of burnout: a place of feeling that non-Marine factions deserve attention, but that the complaints are so commonplace that people are just whining now. On the other side of the spectrum, xenos players can feel a learned helplessness, as there’s not much they can but accept their fate and make snarky comments on WarhammerCompetitive. Some people try to hold optimism that the new and improved GW will pull through, burning themselves out on the Primaris line while others put their head down and play as they always have.
But the issue barrels forward as the Primaris money printer hums its “brrr” in the background.
TL;DR - Gaming company builds bridges of goodwill with fans, then torches them due to impressions of favoritism and greed.

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Platform	Method
Any	unplug router method
PC	port blocking method - task manager method
PS4	MTU method
XB1	MTU method - NAT method

Making Money

Weekly Money-Making Methods - Updated Weekly!

Any level of experience and money:

• Broke To Millionaire by L131 - Min. Level 1 /

I am a new player with low experience and money:

• Earn m and Level 40 For Brand New Players by u/Prizrak_Peruna - Min. Level 1 /
• Rags to Riches by K2Widowmaker - Min. Level 5 /
• Contact Missions FAQ by bleeps__ - Min. Level 5 /

I am a returning player with decent game experience and money:

• VIP Work by MaeBeWeird - Min. Level 1 /
• Host or participate in Heists - Min. Level 1 / to participate; Min. Level 12 / or own a high-end apartment to host

I'm a millionaire already, just give me a grind:

• CEO Import/Export Vehicle Work by Psychko - Currently most reliable and profitable money grind with high end only method - Min. Level 1 / if you already own a CEO office / if you do not own a CEO office
• Do an I/E sourcing mission, then do VIP work (Headhunter or Sightseer are a breeze with a Buzzard) in the cool down, then do an I/E delivery mission. Rinse and repeat!
• TIP: How to get high end vehicles only
• CEO Crate Work by Psychko - Min. Level 1 / if you already own a CEO office / if you do not own a CEO office
• Can be done hassle-free in a completely solo public lobby
• If you get a sell mission you don't like, just switch sessions to lose 3 crates and have a chance at a different sell mission type
• VIP "Wave" method for continuous money grinding by Psychko - Min. Level 1 / , requires Buzzard or Savage helicopter
• Money grind for advanced players using Coke, Meth, Counterfeit Cash, and Bunker businesses by u/Tonan

I'm a solo player, how can I maximize my profits?

• Solo CEO and MC Tips by RDS08

Leveling RP

• Be an Associate for a CEO - Min. Level 1 /
• Earn 2000-3000RP per source delivery, 5000RP per sale delivery. Buy 1 crate and sell immediately for maximum RP since the same RP is given whether you source/sell 1 crate or multiple.
• Earn 200-600RP bonuses when you stay near the CEO/VIP's location
• Participate in weekly 2X RP activities - Min. Level 1 /
• Leveling a second character from scratch by Sh-Apeshifter09 - Min. Level 1 / million

Further Money Making Info

• Money Wiki - a quick overview of the various ways to make money.
• Summary of major money making methods by Dreamex - includes Crates, Import/Export, MC businesses, hangars, bunkers
• Special Cargo Business Strategy by MrShyShyGuy
• Comprehensive Guide by TheNathanNS - details on every type of mission or work that earns money, and tips on maximizing your profits
• Money Making Notebook by SanshaXII
• Contact Missions Guide by GlassGoose45 - good for those who are just starting out or can't/don't want to do heists, CEO, or VIP
• CEO Work by MaeBeWeird - quick overview of offices, associates, and crate work
• CEO FAQ by bleeps__ - details on CEO crate work
• CEO Crate Profits Guide by _Caith_Amach - table of profit/crate ratios
• Import/Export Guide by ErregungHaus
• Import/Export Spreadsheet by Beltontx101 - keep track of vehicles you get in I/E missions
• Detailed I/E Guide for each type of sourcing mission by RDS08
• MC Biker Work and Business Guide by ErregungHaus
• MC Business Supply/Profit/Production Chart
• Diamond casino Heist Guide by /iiEco-Ryan3166

What's New? Recent Major Content Updates

• Rockstar Newswire

June 2017 - Gunrunning FAQ by L131
August 2017 - Intro to Smuggler's Run by Psychko

• Smuggler's Run FAQ by L131

December 2017 - Doomsday Heist FAQ
July 2018 - After Hours/Nightclubs FAQ | After Hours Guide by Dan6erbond
July 2019 - Diamond Casino FAQ

• Hidden Playing Cards Locations by u/dingogordy
• Gambling Guide by u/enderpiet
• Inside Track Odds Calculator by u/GarsantFAQs and Popular Topics
• Looking for friends or heist teammates? GTALFH | /HeistTeams | GTAOnline subreddit Discord

Vehicles and Properties

• All Vehicles Guide by Broughy1322
• GTA V Full Vehicles Database by TheSDHotel
• GTA V Full Properties Database by TheSDHotel
• Vehicle Trade Price Unlocks by howellq
• Combat Vehicle Guide by Dan6erbond

Tips and Tricks

• General Tips and Tricks by lBurnsyl and the users of /gtaonline
• General Tips and tricks x2 by what_it_dooo
• Heist Tips and Tricks
• Doomsday Heist Tips and Tricks

Just For Fun

• What to do when you're burned out on GTA Online by iosPixel
• Big list of fun things to do in the game by NextubeGameArena (original Reddit post deleted)
• Wheel of Fortune for stuff to do

Useful Tools

• A new and better: GTA Online Interactive Map, Timers, Import/Export Vehicle warehouse checklist, and guides by u/drafirus
• Business Supply/Stock Manager by u/elcihev_cnuf
• Merryweather All-Purpose Map by Oliqu - Pegasus spawn points, anti-griefer safe locations, weapon spawn points; More info here
• Interactive Property and Business Map by gtaboss_gg
• Event/mission/spawning timer by ErregungHaus
• All 200 Weapon Spawn Locations by smartergaming
• GTA Launcher Troubleshooting by PartyNachos
• Website to prepare your Casino Heist - calculator, training tool, guide... by u/Scorpyo5

If you know a post that should be included in this guide, message the moderators.

I love Keyforge. I’ve been playing since it first released back in 2018 and still enjoy it immensely to this day. However, the game has, on occasion, been plagued by the odd problem. Though these issues have been mostly cleared up as of today thanks to some rule alterations and errata, during the game’s infancy – when players first got their hands on the game – one particular combo of cards became so incredibly degenerate that something needed to be done. This is the story of how that combo culminated in the most infamous grand finals that the game has ever seen.
The State of Play
Firstly, I should give some basic information on how the game is played. Keyforge is strictly a 2-player game in which, in order to win, you must forge 3 keys. Each key costs 6 ӕmber (pronounced ‘amber’), which you can gain through certain card bonuses, or by using creatures to perform the ‘reap’ action. If you have enough ӕmber at the start of your turn, you forge a key. There are other intricacies and various aspects of play, but to put it simply: play cards, get ӕmber, forge keys, be the first to forge 3 of them. Got that? Good.
The game has seen plenty of extremely powerful combos, including the likes of:
- GENKA: Martian Generosity and Key Abduction. Players can draw a large number of cards while also forging keys at a lowered cost.
- BRIG: Binate Rupture and Interdimensional Graft. Players can inflate both their own and their opponent’s ӕmber pool then immediately take any remaining ӕmber from their opponent after they forge a key.
- Gangernaut: Ganger Chieftain and Drummernaut. Provided the opponent has no creatures on the board, players can use these two creatures to generate a burst of 5 or 6 ӕmber depending on the situation.
However, none of these combos quite measure up to the nightmare that was LANS. But before I get to that, you’ll need to know some important aspects of Keyforge.
The World’s First Unique Deck Game
As opposed to just about every other card game in existence, Keyforge consists of absolutely no deckbuilding whatsoever. Rather than buying booster packs or singles to enhance a deck that you construct, the game is played using complete, pre-constructed decks that cannot be altered or mixed. While some players have experimented with deckbuilding and making cubes, instances such as these only exist as far as casual play with friends. The vast majority of players choose to play the game as intended.
Another thing to note is that every single Keyforge deck in the entire world is unique. That is, if you buy a deck, no other deck will ever have the same decklist. Each deck also comes with its own unique artwork on the backs of each card, and each deck has its own unique name printed on both the front and back of each card. (Some famously humorous names include The Boy Who Basically Headbutts Heaven and The Child Who Terribly Fears The Church) Suffice it to say, anyone who tries to mix and match cards from other decks can be found out very quickly, as any deviation from the card’s name, art and decklist (which must be shown to your opponent before each game) are easy indicators.
These aspects, from name to decklist to card backs, are all created using an algorithm that picks 3 houses (or factions) and distributes a range of 12 cards to each house, with distribution dependent on card rarity, from common to uncommon to rare and special rare.
Keyforge’s model garnered some mixed receptions, with some praising the game for its low barrier of entry and quick casual setup through sealed decks, while others lamented the inability to build decks and likened the game to a lootbox simulator. With the randomized nature of the game, many detractors assumed that the game would devolve into spending obscene amounts of money throwing away decks in search of ‘the one’, while many proponents of the game simply enjoyed the discovery and puzzle-solving aspect of trying to learn each deck, with the ability to find interesting matchups without the need to build decks for specific purposes.
The big question was: How could a game of random, decidedly suboptimal decks work at the most competitive level? How could you truly test a player’s skill and knowledge of the game if matchups can never be equal? The answer? Adaptive.
A Test of Skill
The adaptive format works as follows: The players play two games, the first using their own decks and the second using their opponent’s deck. If the same deck wins twice, players must then commence a bidding on chains. Chains are the game’s handicap system, which can be used to curb decks that have the advantage in a particular matchup. To put it simply, the more chains you have, the fewer cards you are allowed in your hand at any one time. (The standard hand size is 6) From 1-6 chains, you play with 1 fewer card in hand. From 7-12, you play with 2 fewer cards, right up to the 19-24 bracket, where you play with 4 fewer cards. That’s a hand size of only 2 cards!
The purpose of bidding on chains is for each player to deduce how much of a handicap they would be willing to take in order to play the stronger deck without putting themselves at a disadvantage. A chain is dropped at the end of each turn, meaning if you start out with 3 chains, after 3 turns you’ll be back up to a normal hand size. Each player takes turns bidding until one decides they aren’t willing to increase the bid, and the game starts with the handicap in place on the 'stronger' deck, while the 'weaker' deck simply plays as normal.
Most players consider the adaptive variants to be the truest test of skill at the competitive level. After all, playing an extremely powerful deck holds no advantage over playing an extremely weak deck. Even at the most lopsided of matchups, 24 chains (the maximum) would shut down a dominant deck’s momentum to an extreme level. Theoretically, you could buy only one deck in your entire life and still win adaptive tournaments, given the fact that Keyforge has no set rotation. Decks are legal forever, and aside from very specific events that require the use of certain sets, there are no restrictions as to which sets can play against which.
Surely then, the adaptive tournaments would be the best place to see the most nail-biting and skill intensive matches possible. Nobody could complain about degenerate decks dominating, right?
The Most Broken Combo of All Time
Enter the LANS combo, consisting of Library Access and Nepenthe Seed. LANS could allow you (with some setup) to draw your entire deck into your hand, play a bunch of cards, then cycle those cards back into your hand, then play more cards, then cycle them back…
Let’s break it down. Library Access sees you drawing a card every time you play a card. This on its own is a pretty powerful effect. Keyforge has no mana costs. The only limiting factor is that you can only play or use cards from the active house. In this case, since Library Access is a Logos card, you must only play or use Logos cards that turn. If you keep drawing Logos cards, you can keep playing them, but given that only one third of your deck consists of Logos, you’re bound to hit a wall eventually. Great card, but far from broken. Things get crazy, however, if you pair it with Nepenthe Seed. This is an artifact that allows you to return a card from your discard pile to your hand at any point of any turn you wish. Again, on its own Nepenthe Seed is an excellent card, but not broken. But if you put the two together, first playing Library Access and then using Nepenthe Seed’s ability to return Library Access back to your hand, by playing Library Access again, the effect stacks. Now for every card you play, you draw two cards. And if that already sounds scary enough, it gets worse.
Other Logos cards also include:
- Wild Wormhole: Gain an ӕmber, then play the top card of your deck. With LANS, this means playing Wild Wormhole, drawing two cards, then playing the top card of your deck and drawing another two cards.
- Timetraveller: Gains you an ӕmber on play, and also allows you to draw two cards, meaning with LANS you would draw four cards on play. Each Timetraveller also comes paired with a copy of Help From Future Self, meaning there are multiple ways to get hold of it.
- Mother: A creature that increases hand size, giving you greater opportunity to set the combo up.
- Library of Babble: An artifact that allows you to draw an additional card.
- Phase Shift: The most important piece of the puzzle. Phase Shift allows you to play one non-Logos card. This gives you ample opportunity to use the effects of other houses, and since you’ll likely be drawing up your entire deck, you’ll have all the choices in the world at your disposal. Just as with Library Access, the effect stacks. Using multiple copies of Phase Shift means you can play multiple non-Logos cards that turn.
Does that sound bad enough? Sorry, but it gets even worse than that. You see, unlike most other card games, when your deck pile is emptied in Keyforge, you simply reshuffle your discard pile to form your new deck. This means you can cycle back through your deck again. And play Library Access again. Now you’re drawing three cards for each card you play. And on and on it goes.
Now, this effect cannot go on indefinitely thanks to the Rule of Six. In simple terms, this means that any card (or card of the same name) cannot be played or used more than 6 times. LANS cannot carry on forever, but it can carry on for a very, very long time. Plus, even if the insanity does come to an end, you’ve now drawn pretty much your entire deck, ready to use it next turn. And while the combo does at least require some setup to ensure you get the most out of it, top players would optimize their play to all but ensure it.
I should point out that it was possible to prevent the combo from happening with cards that could either destroy or remove Nepenthe Seed from play. These included Remote Access, Poltergeist, Gorm of Omm, Nexus, Barehanded and Neutron Shark. That said, any deck that didn't have an answer (which was most of them) would be at the full mercy of LANS. And even if you did have an answer in your deck, an unlucky card draw could prevent you from ever using it. Many people outright despised LANS (and to a lesser extent, LART, which swapped Nepenthe Seed for Reverse Time, a card that required more setup for the combo but in turn couldn't be countered). For a game all about interesting and weird matchups with unexpected surprises, the idea of chasing a meta specifically to deal with LANS didn't sit well with many.
The insanity of this combo came to a head at Keyforge Vault Tour Illinois in April of 2019.
The Worst Grand Finals Ever
While you’re more than welcome to watch the entire footage of the grand finals (linked above), here’s some key details with timestamps:
Game 1:
Game occurs as normal until Library Access is played at 18:25. From here, the player cycles through his entire deck, using all manner of cards and counters to keep track of how many uses each card has seen. From there, all his opponent can really do is watch. He spends his time staring a hole into the table, card effects flying left and right, his stacked army of creatures being decimated, until finally, after eight minutes of inactivity, he concedes the game at 26:25, seeing no other way out of this hell.
Game 2:
Decks are swapped between players. Game plays normally until 36:17. Library Access is played and the player cycles through his deck, and again, playing cards continuously. After a grueling nineteen minutes of simply watching the madness unfold without being able to take his turn, at 55:15, his opponent concedes.
Game 3:
Time to bid for chains! Now, you’d think this would be where the LANS deck gets hit with a massive set of chains, stopping it from doing its thing. Right? WRONG. The opposing player chooses not to bid on the LANS deck, allowing the LANS owner to play it with zero chains. Word has it that he still believed his deck had a good chance at outracing his opponent before LANS could be activated, but no such thing happened. At 59:36, Library Access is played. At 1:13:50, the game is over, 3 keys to 0.
Community Response
As expected, this did not go over well with Keyforge fans. (See YouTube comments) “Stupid combo... much worse than exodia,” writes one commenter. “People bringing LANS decks to tournaments should be ashamed of themselves,” wrote another. “LANS: definition of "not fun tournaments", ladies and gents!”
While there were a small minority of players who wished for the game to remain as it was, many saw LANS as a scourge upon the earth and wanted changes to be made. LANS simply wasn't fun for either player when pulled off, but due to its sheer power, LANS decks were highly sought after. The problem was, given the fact Keyforge revolves around opening pre-made decks, individual cards cannot be banned, and the alternative of banning specific decks would set a terrible precedent for the game.
Thankfully, a decision was made that satisfied most. On 29th of May 2019 Fantasy Flight Games announced some important errata which included the rule that upon playing Library Access, the card would be purged instead of hitting the discard pile. Much like the term ‘exile’ in Magic: The Gathering, when a card is purged it is removed from play entirely, making it impossible to return to your hand through Nepenthe Seed. Panic over, and people could play the game in peace again.
While the card is once again balanced, many still remember the horrors of Library Access in the game’s early days. Being able to draw your entire deck into your hand and continue cycling through? Why, it had to be the most broken card in Keyforge history!
Except it wasn’t.
Believe it or not, Library Access was generally considered only the second best card in the game at the time. That’s right; another card existed that even Library Access couldn’t stand up to. A card so brutal and terrifying that it utterly dominated the meta. A card that, by itself, with no card required to combo with it, made players shiver and quake with terror. “But how can that be?” you might ask. “After everything I’ve read, the ridiculous combo potential of LANS, how can any card possibly be better than the broken mess that was Library Access!?”
Well… as Old Bruno would say, it’s a heckuva deal.
Perhaps that’s a story for another time. Please let me know if you enjoyed reading this, as I have a number of Keyforge stories to tell! 😊
EDIT: Wow! I'm shocked my post garnered so much attention! I only found out about this sub a few days ago! Thanks to all of you for reading!
Lots of people clamoring for information on the broken card that I teased at the end. I'll definitely have to start work on that one at some point, even if I'm not sure when I'll have the spare time to write it. I have a number of ideas for topics, and with the fifth set due out next month, who knows? Maybe something else will come up that's worth talking about.
Like that recently revealed trojan horse artifact... I hope the designers know what they're doing with that one! O_O

I don't get what you guys are worried about with PLTR.
Here's my personal DD on PLTR, you're welcome to read and do whatever you want. Other helpful info or pointing out mistakes in my DD is very welcome.
Fears preventing you from buying PLTR

1. Targeted ads on your phone from Yahoo Finance or Zacks telling you PLTR = BAD!!!1!eleven
2. Shills spamming "pLtR tO tHe MoOn" and :rocket: on PLTR thread comments.
3. Last quarter's seemingly bad financials/earnings.
4. Financials Moving Forwards
5. Soros who owns 21 million shares "threatening" to sell his shares upon DPO expiry.
6. DPO expiry 3 days after February's earnings and possible insiders and DPO holders sale and dip.
7. What does PLTR tldr.
8. Other Information

​
#1 Targeted Ads
Ads and articles are both paid for by someone.The fact that in the past 3 weeks i've been getting multiple multiple targeted ads on my phone related to PLTR since i love PLTR so much.
Ads are telling me that PLTR is bad, doesn't provide a dividend, they're telling me PLTR's fair price is 20 instead of 25 based on some financial model and have gone as far as to provide a list of alternative stocks to buy.
To me, this all screams: SCARE TACTICS
Additionally, the last few weeks of ups and downs in PLTR's stock price is another indication of the attempts to short the stock to sh!t and drive investors out. (For what reason? I don't know.)
​
#2 Shilling PLTR
I myself love to shill PLTR to people whenever i can. I do this because i legitimately think this company will do great. I work as a product manager in a software development house and understand what PLTR does. PLTR is not cryptic.Regardless, i think when people shill PLTR to you, they are right to do so as you're probably missing out on a great opportunity to make money in the long run. If you're looking for big gains short term, maybe try something else.
Shillery is OK, but at least give the facts.
​
#3 Last Quarter's Bad Financials
If you'd done your DD not by searching reddit posts but by checking PLTR's actual quarterly report, you'd know that PLTR's "bad" last financial quarteearnings were due to the costs of listing themselves on the New York Stock Exchange.~855million were spent on listing and stock related compensations and this is the big reason.
Direct quote by PLTR here: https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2020/Palantir-Reports-Revenue-Growth-of-52-in-the-Third-Quarter-Raises-Full-Year-2020-Guidance/default.aspx

We incurred a loss from operations of $847.8 million, which includes $847.0 million in stock-based compensation following our recent direct listing.

I would like to remind everyone that this is a 1 TIME THING. Put simply, this means that PLTR won't have as excessive losses next quarter as they did this last quarter.
Additionally, let me go into further detail on this and not just leave it to that.

• PLTR's quarterly operating expenses for the past 3 quarters were at around ~260 million.
• PLTR's operating expenses this quarter were ~987 million.

ADDITIONALLY...
PLTR also had a higher R&D cost this quarter that just passed. Normally they'd pay 80 million on R&D, but somehow ended up paying ~300 million this quarter. No one knows why, but this is another thing that influenced PLTR's earnings.
https://investors.palantir.com/news-details/2020/Palantir-Reports-Revenue-Growth-of-52-in-the-Third-Quarter-Raises-Full-Year-2020-Guidance/default.aspx

On September 30, 2020, in connection with the Direct Listing, we incurred $769.5 million and $8.4 million of stock-based compensation using the accelerated attribution method related to the satisfaction of the performance-based vesting condition for RSUs and growth units, respectively, that had satisfied the service-based vesting condition as of such date.

​
#4 PLTR financials moving forwards
PLTR is deep in bed with the government and the Biden regime although may look like it would be against using PLTR is in fact secretly very pro-surveillance e.g pro Palantir.
Here's some of the known organizations in the US Govt that use PLTR:

1. CDC
2. Office of the Secretary
3. Food and Drug Administration
4. Immigration and Customs Enforcements / ICE
5. Internal Revenue Service / IRS
6. National Institute on Drug Abuse
7. DOD/ARMY - ACC Aberdeen Proving Ground
8. Coast Guard / DHS
9. DOD/NAVY - Naval Information Warfare Systems Command
10. US Attorney's Offices / DOJ
11. US Special Operations Command / SPEC OPS

Boys. The big institutional people know these things. You just found this out. See how deep PLTR is already in bed with the Government?????? Palantir IS the next Raytheon/Lockheed of DATA aggregation and visualization.
UPCOMING EARNINGS
I've done some quick maths and it looks like PLTR is more likely to be in positive earnings this quarter and with a 0.02 cent EPS target, we can easily assume that they'll destroy this with maybe 0.04 or 0.08 EPS. In the worst case scenario, PLTR's EPS this quarter could be somewhere around MINUS -0.05 ish due to interview costs and ad/campaigning costs that were not there before the company was listed.
WHAT CAN DESTROY PALANTIR
Now, there's big possible downsides and Palantir can fail IF contracts that expire are not renewed. That's biggest REAL reason for Palantir's balance sheet getting screwed.
I've seen a disturbing pattern with PLTR's financials and that's that every year, it's R&D cost is rising by between 150 and 350 million dollars. This is quite a bit of negative revenue and if new contracts are not constantly coming in, PLTR's balance can start going into the negative.
WHAT WILL NOT DESTROY PALANTIR
Some people may have concerns over the new left leaning government dumping PLTR. An article was posted that is behind a paywall EVERYWHERE that goes something like this:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cdc-officials-urge-biden-team-to-dump-palantirs-covid-tracker
In my opinion, i believe this is inconsequential and that a few people crying to daddy Biden to kill a multimillion contract with PLTR is a stretch. Also we know the current new Biden team has his hands full and will have them full for at least the next 1 year with what's going on.
There is no time to deal with a few crybabies and even if he did deal with it and did decide to kill the PLTR Tiberius Covid tracker contract with the CDC which he WONT, these things take months and years to deal with, and by then the contract/s will have already brought PLTR tons of money and revenue in.
HOW MUCH DOES KARP AND HIS GOONS GET PAID
Short answer is... A LOT. The amounts below are PER YEAR. That's a lot of money in the hole and contributes to annoying amount to why PLTR is always just at the edge of just barely being profitable.
https://preview.redd.it/ba58nqcurob61.png?width=2615&format=png&auto=webp&s=55d45833faad4d60ea8dc142a9601c44b4cc7395
Palantir's prospectus 311 page document's 130 last pages are almost all exclusively talking about extremely complicated options trading schemes that are made by Cohen and others to make sure they can squeeze out a LOT of money out of PLTR.
Mithril Investments has existed from before and is not a new company. Owned by Thiel/Cohen/Karp as a way to launder and exchange options for more options and more money for all 3 of them. Also Shyam Sankar to me feels corrupt which scares me a bit, he's had some very shady dealings and has brought his wife in PLTR that gets paid 200k per year.
Prospectus Document: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1321655/000119312520230013/d904406ds1.htm
I suggest you skim through it, it contains EVERYTHING about Palantir.
Palantir is going to need to have to be getting AT LEAST 500 million in NEW contracts per year to REMAIN BARELY profitable. It's doable in my opinion, but just barely and it's why they made the company public to try and get more people's attention and increase the inflow of contracts.
​
#5 Soros and his 21 million shares
First of all, i think we can all agree that Soros can suck it.
If you've read a few articles here and there, you'll know that Soros owns/owned 1% of Class A PLTR shares. No one knows whether he's sold them yet or if he's an DPO holder who'll sell 3 days after February's earnings.
Whether he sells them or buys more will be mostly inconsequential in my opinion. We see dips and pumps every day. He legally cannot sell his shares all at once, he'll have to sell certain amounts daily and over time. This will create annoying sideways motion as shares exchange hands and consolidation starts for 2-3 weeks until his and insider shares exchange hands.
Nothing special to see here, move along just a little draw down resulting in some consolidation.
PLTR is exposed to OIL more than anything, so fluctuations in the general market and general market crashes affect PLTR much less than other stocks. Also PLTR does not track ANY benchmarks. NONE.
​
#6 DPO expiry 3 days after earnings in February
To my limited knowledge, this is how BIG plays who are holding DPO shares usually work:

• If a stock has performed well up to earnings and investors are more than happy with the returns, they're more likely to not sell their stock or just sell less than they normally would.
• If a stock hasn't performed as well as investors thought, these investors are more likely to sell stock or reduce their positions more than normal.

There's a total of 1.16Billion Class A PLTR shares currently (Give or take don't flog me). We are currently trading with ~250 million shares while the rest are locked away in the DPO.
When those shares are "unlocked" in February, the price of the stock won't be diluted. These shares already exist and are accounted for. They are simply locked. Also when they are unlocked, the share price won't simply multiply because all shares are now tradeable.

According to Palantir’s after-hours filing with the SEC this afternoon, the company has 1.16 billion Class A shares, 484 million Class B shares and 1 million Class F shares on its cap table outstanding today, or a total of roughly 1.64 billion. Only Class A shares will trade, and Class B and F shares are convertible to Class A shares on a one-to-one basis. On a fully diluted basis, which Palantir says represents 2.2 billion shares total according to its most recent S-1 filing, the company is valued at $16 billion. The difference between those two aggregate numbers comes from outstanding stock performance grants, warrants and other financial instruments.

What WILL affect stock price:

• Employees exercising their non class A options into Class A shares. This IS dilution.
• The bigwigs e.g Alex Karp, Peter Thiel and a few other bigshots exercising their options and then selling them for a profit.

To note, regular employees will barely affect the price of the stock with their miniscule share holdings. Alex Karp, Peter Thiel and a handful of other high ranked executives in PLTR are the ones that will create a tiny but manageable ripple in the stock price.
What COULD affect the stock price a lot:

• Massive sell off by the big institutional holders.
• Not shorters. (Citron and Citi can suck it, we're in control here)
• People with weak spaghetti wet paper hands.
• Everyone fomoing the same weeklies e.g like when everyone bought Jan 15 calls on everything.
• Big but silent scare campaign (that's already going on) to scare off normies like us.

​
#7 What does PLTR do, tldr.
Imagine Facebook's database of everything about everyone & Youtube's Database of everything & Geolocation data in a database made by the US Army for known terrorist cells.
Palantir allows you to select and match varied data TYPES from several different database, combine it in any way you want and visualize it so that it's human readable by even the dumbest person in the room so that even they can see patterns and come to conclusion on a subject matter.
It's kind of like filling an excel sheet with data and then visualizing it with a bar chart, except the date you filled the sheet with can be anything and not just numbers or dates or countries and you can make various combinations using all the different rows of data to maybe come up with a pattern to something like how to best distribute the Covid vaccines in the counties in a very specific state in the US.
Literally what you see in SciFi movies where people combine random data by smashing keys on a keyboard and somehow find the murderer, the location of a terrorist or the percentage that someone will commit a murder in the future based on a lot of random data about that person or the area, country, family, history... anything.
While this all might sound super cool and amazing, it is. Maybe in 10 years time there will be a few more companies doing this, but for now, it's only Palantir, Circles, Alteryx and a few other private entities that do this type of thing. Many of them work with governments and are hush hush due to the kinds of things they use this type of software for (terrorist cells, warzones, etc) and the public backlash this could cause.
tldr: Glorified data aggregator and visualization platform/software with different access levels for different people.
PLTR is superbly positioned to offer their software to SLOW and Boomer like organizations like Governments.
Governments are stupid and don't have neither the time, nor technical knowledge to develop this software themselves for internal use. This is what PLTR capitalizes on and why Governments use them so much.
Governments could have spent the a fraction of the money they spend on PLTR contracts to make the software themselves but only for their own internal systems and use, but they can't and if they tried, they'd fail because technocracy in governments is not a thing. By the time they'd even complete a project like this, it'd likely be out of spec, unusable and would require further development and money and we know how slow and bad governments are at doing even the basics. Again PLTR wins because of this.
PLTR is likely NOT to be adopted by giants like Google or FB or other modern tech organizations of any size because they are not stupid. They have their own purpose built internal systems that they use to do everything related to data aggregation and visualization because they have the technical knowledge and resources. Buying PLTR for their use is a joke.
PLTR capitalizes on being general a general purpose tool and is set up manually by an engineer over the course of 4-10 days for each customer. The engineer customizes and configures the system for each company's custom use since the software allows you to do so. Regular aggregation and visualization software CAN do the same, but typically lacks data input types and features that PLTR has because PLTR has cultivated a special set of features over many years that were suggested by their existing clientele in battlefields and other places.
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#8 Other Information
\*Big known PLTR Holders*\**
https://preview.redd.it/a404oalxrob61.png?width=1631&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c2dbcfac5a7ca207127771ec4e3133f8d943359
\*PLTR's Price List (2019)*\**
https://www.esi.mil/Download.aspx?id=7186
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\*Personal TA and Crayon Mania*\**
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLTnrjqL4dw-PLTR-Risky-April-100-200-possibility/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLT5YcdCye0-PLTR-Schizzo-Technical-Analysis/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PLTCkCTvtqM-PLTR-PLTR-train-leaving-the-station-get-ready/
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\*PLTR stock pumping events*\**

• 7'th Jan - Interview
• 26'th Jan - Demonstration
• 11'th Feb - Earnings
• ~15'th Feb - DPO expiration - Havoc

​
\*Similar Companies*\**

• PLTR - Palantir - Stock Price ~$25 - Market Cap 48bln
• AYX - Alteryx - Stock Price ~$125 - Market Cap 8bln
• Semantic Research - Private

​
\*Known Contract Info*\**

• 240 million Palantir Air Force contract expiring soon in 3 months. If it's re-signed, it'll be a big catalyst for a PLTR pump. If not, it'll be a sad dump day.
• Mithril, investment/financial company owned by Karp and Thiel buys a 3.15million share stake in Palantir. Somehow this makes them major stakeholders.
• Sompo holdings has 5% of all PLTR shares.

​
\*Past and new US KNOWN gov contracts. Source* govtribe.com\\**
https://preview.redd.it/kbim7afrrob61.png?width=1392&format=png&auto=webp&s=9abc99d9995c4972919e275f407e1bba6382dfdd
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\*Quotes from Won and LOST contracts from Federal Agencies*\**
National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIH) - WON

The National Institutes of Health (NIH) intends to award a contract without providing for full and open competition to Palantir Technologies, Inc., 100 Hamilton Ave., Suite 300, Palo Alto, CA 94301.

Veteran Health Association - WON

The pandemic-related data management and operational decision-support requirements have led the program office to determine that the Palantir data management and analytics platform is the only viable solution that would maintain the current operational capability, without a degradation in VHA COVID-19 decision-support.

AFLCMC Wright Patterson AFB (DOD - USAF - AFMC - AFLCMC) - LOST

Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) held meetings in January/February 2020 timeframe with potential vendors to determine their capabilities and their abilities to meet this mission requirement. They met with Palantir, Recorded Future, Altyrex, In-Q-tel and Semantic AI. From the information they gathered in those meetings it was determined that Semantic AI would be the only company that could fully meet the requirements of this effort without further delaying the project and incurring additional costs

​

​
Now friends, here's my position on PLTR. I'll be holding onto it for the next year. If it's not at least 300% by then, i'm selling it and moving on to the next stock. App i'm using is Revolut.
Also yes, i'm ALL-IN only on Palantir because i know my money will multiply itself in the short term. I'm not holding this till 2025 as others are supposedly doing. I'm selling in 2022 with 300% or more profit. PLTR is severely undervalued, underpriced because it's a DPO. Give it till EOY and we're going to be rich. If it was an IPO it'd be trading at 180+ already imho.
I've spent the last month and a half holding PLTR. I've gone full schizzo mode when it comes to PLTR. I lose sleep daily and i love it. I hadn't slept for 37 hours a few days ago because i spent so much time researching PLTR and scraping the internet for all possible information.
I come from an IT/Development background, so i understand what PLTR does completely.
My PT's for PLTR are:

• 48-89 by March or April.
• 75 - 125 by EOY.
• 200+ 2022 IF they solve their income and constantly increasing R&D cost issues.

https://preview.redd.it/4t0k1ujprob61.png?width=407&format=png&auto=webp&s=0b3a16265edafa290432e6b79f9009e3df99f495

Let's lay down a list of what was promised to us but it was found missing from the game.
FINAL EDIT: Ok guys I think we have a good lay out of the game we were promised vs the game we had. I won't really modify further this list. I think we have touched on every main aspect of the game in a truthful and objective (for what we can) way. Please if you have any critism let it be contructive and well documented. Many of these are complex issues that deserve more than just a twitter post to be discussed. Also feel free to use this if needed in the future.
Features we were told to expect but aren't in the game:
- AMAZING AI that directs enemies during combat/patrol but also citizens and npcs' daily life (https://www.reddit.com/cyberpunkgame/comments/kbk4ap/the_ai_of_cyberpunk_2077_an_indepth_look_at_the/)
- wanted system and corrupt police (https://gamerant.com/cyberpunk-2077-wanted-system-corrupt-police/)
-Immersive police involvment changing with the area where you commited the crime (https://www.usgamer.net/articles/cyberpunk-2077-producer-details-law-enforcement)
- (half kept) in general, more interesting combat and hacking (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FknHjl7eQ6o). Some examples are the ability to use your wire to hack people (https://youtu.be/vjF9GgrY9c0?t=2540), hacking reveales information about the network, more interesting viruses to upload, more loot from hacked devices. DISCLAIMER: the changes here may be due entirely to balace issues and/or making the game better and more intuitive. I keep this as a promise "half kept" as the hacking system gets really boring really soon and doesn't even many abilities you can upgrade. The skill tree is filled with passive and all you do is press tab, pick whatever, kill, repeat. For a better explanation please read this: https://www.reddit.com/cyberpunkgame/comments/kcve8s/promised_but_missing_feature_list_will_update/gfyly34?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
- more interesting gameplay, for example: trauma team that plays a key role, freequent flying avs, ads that target the player point to the merchant that sells that product, merch could be pre-viewed before purchase (Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVAryZ0GLwE and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjF9GgrY9c0&feature=youtu.be&t=2531) NOTE: this section is by far the most oversimplied one. There are a number of minute key things I am not stating in this thread because I don't want to dilute it too much, i.e.: https://www.reddit.com/cyberpunkgame/comments/kcve8s/promised_but_missing_feature_list_will_update/gfvxkxw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
- Strong RPG elements (https://wccftech.com/cyberpunk-2077-is-a-much-deeper-roleplaying-experience-than-the-witcher-3-says-dev/). This was actually subject of lengthy debates in this thread, as some of you are happy with the "RPGness" of CP2077. Personally I have not seen a lot of elements that make a game an RPG, such as relevant checks (speech, perception... right now all we have are options to break a door or go around it), solid companions, defined power dynamics between factions and a general sense of progression achieved through meaningful upgrade to your character. The game right now is more akin to a shootelooter with stats. Which is not "strong RPG element". Mind you, if you like it this way it's perfect, and I personally don't mind it too much. But the lack of RPG components does stay in the list as a promised not fulfilled. And no, madqueen, having 7 different finales that you get to choose doesn't make a looteshooter an RPG.
- NPC unique daily routine and AI (https://www.vg247.com/2020/06/08/cyberpunk-2077-npcs-1000-daily-routines/)
- Quest decisions will have relevance in the world (https://onlysp.escapistmagazine.com/cyberpunk-2077-changes/)
- (half kept) Meaningful day and night cycle (right now it's mainly cosmetic and doesn't impact the gameplay a lot, e.g.: you aren't more stealthy at night) as described in Exploring Cyberpunk's Night City with CD Projekt Red - Cyberpunk 2077 - Gamereactor but it does something, like opening and closing some venues (according to some, I am 200h in and venues are always open for me) and modifying some population density. I have not seen evidence of places being more dangerous at night. If you have please record a clip and send it over.
- Incredible character customization during creation / in-game (https://gamecrate.com/cyberpunk-2077-boxing-power-weapons-militech-spider-robot-and-more/23426 and https://www.gamesradar.com/uk/cyberpunk-2077-character-creation/)
- Use of drones for more than just some missions in the game (https://gamecrate.com/cyberpunk-2077-boxing-power-weapons-militech-spider-robot-and-more/23426)
- three different lifepaths and more that would actually have more impact than what we are getting now (Wall running and metro system are not the biggest thing to be cut out from the game. Its the plot : cyberpunkgame (reddit.com)) for a better description on why lifepaths are poorly implemented. this post (https://www.reddit.com/cyberpunkgame/comments/kdmrju/the_corpo_life_path_makes_no_sense/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) is a good example.
- to add on the previous point, lifepaths leading to non-linear quest design. (https://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2019/09/12/cyberpunk-2077-lifepath-system/)
- Nanowire and gorilla arms have a lot of different uses that are still in the description of the item (https://twitter.com/CyberpunkGame/status/1153684171606450178?s=09).
- Runs very well on last gen consoles (source NOT needed)
- The game will launch when it's ready (source NOT needed)
- Variety of braindances instead of it being just few cutscenes (can't find reference, please link)(so far videos like this https://youtu.be/ToWfeUEAeeQ?t=1167 point that braindance is a cool mechanic but they never said we'd be able to purchase and use the braindances on our devices and all. I don't feel this is a broken promise, rather an aspect of the game that we would love to have had implemented).
- Challenging weather system that would pose a threat to your survival (https://www.windowscentral.com/cyberpunk-2077-features-acid-rain-and-other-deadly-environmental-challenges)
- At time of writing I haven't finished the game. However sources say there are very very few options for ONS and/or deep romances (this article summarizes what was expected https://www.ginx.tv/en/cyberpunk-2077/cyberpunk-2077-everything-about-relationships-romance-and-sex)
- Finishing the game without finishing the main quest ( https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thegamer.com/cyberpunk-side-quests-so-in-depth-finish-game-without-main-quest/amp/) At time of writing I haven't seen any progression just following the subplot and it looks like the main story is the quest to follow if I want to see an epilogue. This appears to be an error in translation during the interview.
- The game will let you select your body type and your gender freely, allowing you to obtain whatever combination of voice/gendegenitalia you want. Sex/Gender complete fluidity was something allowed in the cyberpunk tabletop games and very very relevant in the lore of the cyberpunk society (https://www.gaytimes.co.uk/culture/cyberpunk-2077-will-include-gender-free-character-creation-and-queer-relationships/amp/).
- A polished game and smooth experience (https://www.reddit.com/cyberpunkgame/comments/kd5qow/2018_interview_cyberpunk_2077_will_be_as_polished/)
- weapon customization (https://nightcitylife.de/index.php/features-artikel/341-xxl-preview-cyberpunk-2077-angespielt?start=5) although we got mods so this is half kept.
- 4 different styles, clearly highlighted, that you can adeere to and will make NPC react to it (https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=YlyDJVYqfpA). Please note that this was advertised as true 2 months before release.
​
Features that were initially promised but removed during development (CDPR was transparent about those):
- Properties purchase and customization options (Promised but then removed) (https://www.reddit.com/cyberpunkgame/comments/9bu0d5/purchasable_apartments_confirmed/)
- Transportation system (Promised but then removed) (https://www.gamepressure.com/newsroom/cyberpunk-2077-wont-show-subway-travel/z41f9d)
- Scaling walls (Promised but then removed) (https://www.ign.com/articles/cyberpunk-2077-wall-running-mantis-blades-cut)
- Vehicle customization (Promised but then removed) (https://www.altchar.com/game-news/cyberpunk-2077-wont-have-vehicle-customisation-aonab8e3yY6b)
- V voice customization beyond choosing the gender (Promised but then removed) (CDPR Confirms That Cyberpunk 2077 Won't Have Voice Customization (thegamer.com))
IMPORTANT: I see many of you contributed and I thank you. However this thread is specifically for broken promises, i.e. things that they said (in an article, tweet, interview...) we would find in the game and didn't. I believe there are other thread specifically for quality of life things we would want to see implemented in the game (and the list is infinite there as well).
EDIT: Alright I have monitored all your replies and added what I felt was truthful. The point of this list is not to discuss minutia but to have a concentrated and dense point of reference for future discussion.
My personal opinion is that Cyberpunk 2077 is another reason to always try to hold people accountable for what they promised. Yes I know what companies do isn't illegal but that should not stop us to manifest discontent for what we think are malpractices in the game industry.
Edit: thank you for the awards - I really appreciate it. However please do not waste your money on me, I am lucky enough. Donate instead to an organization of your choice, my favorite ones are Emergency (of Gino Strada) or Wikipedia.

This is my first DD post on any company, be gentle.
Disclaimer: I am long RKT. This is not financial advice, and I am not receiving any compensation whatsoever from anyone for this post. I’m not a professional, I’m not even an amateur, this is a Wendy’s.
Sources used: RKT investor relations website and company website, RKT earnings transcripts, SEC fillings, the SEC EDGAR database, sea king al pha, whalewisdom, finbox, yahoo finance, stockcharts, openinsider, Zacks, google sheets.
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Summary
Rocket Companies (RKT) is a fintech company that operates several brands including the flagship Rocket Mortgage. I think RKT presents an opportunity to buy serious value at a cheap price, because the market has not priced in the underlying fact that RKT is a tech company akin to Square, Paypal, etc.

• RKT has disrupted the lending industry and has embraced a fully digital ecosystem, which will continue to drive customer acquisition and retention in the future
• RKT spends considerable money and resources on UX/UI development, client experience, and marketing. This will also help drive their continued expansion into the lending market.
• The RKT “ecosystem” provides a “full cycle” solution for everything related to real estate transactions and insurance. They serve real estate professionals looking to generate leads, develop those leads, better serve their clients, and make every stage of real estate transactions smoother. From the client side, they similarly just make everything easier - it’s an app, it’s online, it’s doable from home and it’s not complicated. There’s an inherent advantage in what they’re doing here because closing on real estate transactions has always been something that’s complex, unpleasant, expensive, and not well understood. You need lawyers, you need agents, there’s a ton of paperwork, it sucks. RKT is changing all of that.
• RKTs balance sheet, income, and liabilities support a stock price several times higher than the current one in my opinion.
• RKT is currently stagnant in price, and the market appears to be pricing it like a traditional mortgage company, not a rapidly growing tech company (which they are).
• RKT has been around for decades (skips the startup costs that will provide barrier to entry for newer companies looking to do what they’re doing), but somehow seems to still be leading the tech charge in the industry. That’s a unique and potent combination in my opinion.
• RKT needs a catalyst to get the market to value it as a tech company instead of a lending company. Once that happens, and I expect it to sometime within the next year, RKT should approach an appropriate valuation such as 20x earnings. That’s an estimate I pulled out of nowhere, but is commensurate with the low end of P/E ratios for companies I see as similar to RKT.

Key Point - RKT is Priced Like a Legacy Mortgage Company
The average estimate for 2020 year end revenue is $15 billion, and the yearly earnings estimate average is $3.85 per share.
This estimate gives a ttm P/E ratio of just over 5.5. The sector median is something like 8-12, which makes RKT cheaply valued relative to the earnings it produces, even compared to the financial/mortgage sector. What’s key here is, I don’t think that’s really an appropriate comparison. I would place them more in line with companies like Square (ttm P/E ratio of 325x lol), PayPal (ttm P/E ratio of 69x, nice), or Fiserv (ttm P/E ratio of 24x). I used Zacks for all of these P/E ratio lookups.
Let’s assume RKT is conservatively worth 15x earnings, and that it hits the estimate of $3.85 eps. That would put its fair value right now at $57.75 per share. I think it’s worth more than that but, we all should do well to remember that it’s really only worth whatever the market will pay for it.
Key Point - Catalysts
This thing needs a catalyst. Right now I am loading up. I’m buying shares, I’m selling SHORT TERM covered calls to reduce basis on those shares, but I will be stopping the sale of those covered calls within a couple weeks most likely. The Q4 earnings announcement will be on 2/25. I am not sure that the actual earnings numbers will be enough to wake this thing up, although I expect them to be good. But if that announcement comes with discussion of their focus for 2021 and beyond, and gets the market thinking about them as a tech company first and mortgage lending company second, things will start to heat up. I don’t know when the real catalyst will hit that triggers the run-up, but I think it could start with the Q4 earnings call. I am looking at $21 as the floor for this stock, and I expect the price to double within a year. I will be acquiring OTM LEAPs, expiring next spring.
Supporting information and background follows.
The Business
RKT is in the business of providing solutions to financial transactions, including mortgage origination and refinancing, auto lending, and more. Specific subsidiaries and my simplistic view of how they interact:
Home Financing

• Rocket Mortgage - The mortgage company. This is a prominent “public facing” part of the Rocket ecosystem.
• Amrock - Amrock provides title insurance, property valuations, and other solutions. I see this as “supporting infrastructure” to keep clients within the rocket ecosystem where they would otherwise need to go elsewhere and is part of what makes RKT a one-stop-shop.
• Amrock Title Insurance (ATI) Company - basically does underwriting for Amrock. The “business end” in my simple understanding of the world.
• Nexsys - provides a streamlined approach to the closing process with their Clear Sign and Clear HOI technologies - taking care of closing day authentications and sharing of homeowners insurance information.
• Lendesk - Lendesk specifically provides solutions for the mortgage market in Canada
• Edison Financial - Basically the “front end” of Lendesk that Canadian clients would interact with.

Home Sale and Search

• Rocket Homes - Rocket Homes is a proprietary home search platform and real estate agent referral network. Basically this matches buyers, sellers, and agents, and is a key aspect of keeping clients completely working within RKT for all aspects of real estate buying/selling/financing.
• For Sale By Owner - A digital marketplace designed to let clients buy and sell real estate on their own. I think it’s absolutely brilliant that RKT owns this, but more on that later.

Auto & Personal Financing

• Rocket Auto - Supports rental and online car purchasing platforms.
• Rocket Loans - online personal loan solutions for clients.

Media

• Core Digital Media - a major advertiser in the mortgage, financial, insurance, and education sectors.
• Lower My Bills - this company is basically a “portal” business model that connects people with providers of various loan and insurance products.

Services & Technology Development

• Rock Connections - Basically a sales and support platform that handles appointments, prequalifications, generating leads, and data analysis among other things.
• Rock Central - I will generalize this as “business support”. HR, administration, etc.
• Rocket Innovation Studio - A tech incubator to gather and engage top talent and ideas.

Recent Acquisitions
RKT, through Lendesk, acquired Finmo back in October of 2020 (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rocket-companies-subsidiary-acquires-fast-182042594.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALnvnNBoglSnmMP0O61AqgXBJokNS53LjJYuG3NvYKhayp4I6ZH2RpfmFUbSsCAU4xmnBNGMTwiEG-Ly29EabVy1-OjPIGfkYoQ3389gn3Edebs9sIwWOy1tPzqjRwOwwGA_PWg0cNzEFCe7HBTilMwADUT_y0QxWw8vizWecGcv) Finmo is a rapidly growing Canadian digital mortgage platform and this acquisition I think was perfect - it shows RKTs dedication to embracing a fully digital experience, and making sure they’re the ones leading that charge.
Management
I do not have much to say here, aside from this. The RKT team is not the new kids on the block, they have decades of industry experience. Also, I value leaders that make people feel valued. And on that note, under CEO Jay Farner Quicken Loans has been in the top 30 of Fortune’s “100 Best Companies to Work For” list for 17 consecutive years.
Financials and Growth
When it comes to the numbers, RKT is killing it. I don’t want to just spout a bunch of numbers that anyone can easily go look up so here’s a couple that stood out to me from the Q3 earnings announcement and related data:
$4.63 billion in revenue, which is 163% YoY growth.
From that revenue, they beat EPS estimates with $1.21 for the quarter vs $1.09 expected.
Net income was $2.4 billion which represents a YoY growth of 365%.
Closed loan volume YoY growth was 122% to $89B.
Net rate lock volume was $94.7 Billion (101% growth).
RKT has brought in $13.1 billion in revenue in the first 3 quarters and seems to be on track to close out Q4 with yearly revs above $15 billion.
That’s awesome but what I really like is that they pair this amazing growth with $3.5B cash on hand. That’s great because I want them to be able to scale as they grow, and make acquisitions as needed (see Finmo) to ensure they can keep that growth going without getting overextended and failing to capitalize.
RKTs ability to recapture clients is one of the keys to their future success in my uneducated opinion. Their recapture rate is 4.6x the industry average. The Q3 earnings transcript includes a statement by the CEO on how when interest rates fall, retention rate falls, refinance activity is larger. The high recapture rate RKT has serves as a natural hedge to their retention of existing clients because their recapture is so much higher than average in the industry.
Quick aside - RKT announced a $1 billion share buyback program. They’ll be able to repurchase shares from time to time starting Nov10 2020, ending in two years. I don’t love the idea of share buybacks because I think this can be detrimental to actual business growth for the sake of shareholder value. However, with the large cash position RKT has (and it doubled from December 2019 to September 2020) I think this is a reasonable way to deploy some of that cash for now.
Ok so what about valuation using DCF, free cash flow analysis, something like that? Honestly I’m not convinced this is as useful as some people make it out to be. It’s nice to know what the numbers indicate, but I don’t spend a lot of time worrying about an exact price target based on anything like this. That said, you can crunch the numbers yourself or check out something like the Finbox resources:
https://finbox.com/NYSE:RKT/models/dcf-growth-exit-5yr
I don’t believe that fair value estimate for an instant, but it's a part of the puzzle to consider. Finbox has various models you can check out, but it’s also just a nice place to view aggregate data other than directly from the SEC filings.
Product Channels
RKTs direct-to-consumer channel is their main source of revenue right now, but I think they will be successful in their efforts to grow their partner channels as well. Why do I say that? Numbers don’t lie:

• Direct-to-consumer Q3 growth: 131% YoY ($53.5B closed loan volume)
• Partner Network growth 127% YoY ($29.6B closed volume)
  • Adjusted Revenue for Partner Network is up 502% YTD vs 2019 ( see Q3 earnings transcript)

The partner network volume is a little over half of the direct-to-consumer volume but the growth rate is just so damn juicy. That revenue growth is hellathicc.
Current Market and outlook
Right now, rates are low. The average 30-yr mortgage fixed rate is 2.92% (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/mortgage-refinancing-surges-but-high-home-prices-stop-buyers.html)
I cannot say how long interest rates will remain low but I believe RKT is positioned to continue to grow regardless of what rates do moving forward. They just cover so much of the space, and they do it with a focus on applied technology.
Here’s some blatant speculation. I think as we move into 2021 and the vaccine becomes more prevalent, millennials will buy, sell, and borrow against real estate with renewed intensity. I think RKT is uniquely positioned to capture that market.
Positions: RKT shares. Cost basis of $21.14.