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The Best Basketball Player Born in Each US State
Over 4000 NBA players were born in the United States, none are from Vermont. Let's look at the others. *Edit/extra info at the bottom* Alabama (87 players) All-Time: Charles Barkley (Leeds) - 22.1/11.7/3.9 (1984-2000) - The Round Mound of Rebound, the 1992-93 MVP, NBA analyst Charles Barkley finished his illustrious career as an 11 time All Star and currently is 6th in all time offensive rebounds, 20th in total rebounds, and 31st in points. Active: DeMarcus Cousins (Mobile) - 21.0/10.8/3.2 (2011- ) - DeMarcus Cousins was one of the best offensive big men in the league during his prime. Unfortunately, due to multiple serious injuries has struggled to get back on the court the past few years but is currently playing for the Houston Rockets. ----- Alaska (1 player) Only: Mario Chalmers (Anchorage) - 8.9/2.5/3.7 (2008-2018) - Famously a member of the Big 4 in Miami, Mario Chalmers won two championships starting for the Heat. He is still playing pro basketball in Greece. ----- Arizona (17 players) All-Time: Sean Elliot (Tucson) - 14.2/4.3/2.6 (1990-2001) - Two-time All-Star for the Spurs, Sean Elliot's number 32 jersey was retired in 2005. After his first all-star season he was traded by the Spurs for Dennis Rodman, averaged 12 points, and traded back the next season where he became an all-star again the season afterwards. Active: Marvin Bagley III (Tempe) -14.6/7.6/1.0 (2018- ) - Most famous for being drafted before a superstar and getting injured. I swear he's pretty good, I think. ----- Arkansas (54 players) All-Time: Scottie Pippen (Hamburg) - 16.1/6.4/5.2 (1988-2004) - The ultimate Robin, one of the best perimeter defenders ever, and a 6-time champion Scottie Pippen remains as the most underrated player of all time, well maybe not anymore. Active: Mike Conley (Fayetteville) -14.9/3.0/5.7 (2008- ) - One of the most common answers to "Who is the best player to never be an All-Star?" Mike Conley was the starting point guard for the Grit and Grind Grizzlies and currently seems to be having another comeback season on the Utah Jazz. ----- California (416 players) All-Time and Active: Kawhi Leonard (Los Angeles) - 18.8/6.4/2.8 (2012- ) - The most populous state in the nation guarantees a tough choice and disagreement, but I'm going with Kawhi Leonard. The two-time Finals MVP and two-time DPOY was one of the best perimeter defenders in NBA history during defensive prime and is one the best players in the league today. ----- Colorado (19 players) All-Time: Chauncey Billups (Denver) - 15.2/2.9/5.4 (1998-2014) - One of the most famous "late-bloomers" in the NBA, the two-way guard is most famous for his 2004 Finals MVP. Billups made five all-star teams in a row after becoming a champion and had his number 1 jersey retired by the Detroit Pistons. Active: Derrick White (Parker) - 9.7/3.2/3.4 (2018- ) - With his current injury, there are technically no actively playing NBA players from Colorado. Anyways, White is one the Spurs collection of up-and-coming young guards. ----- Connecticut (37 players) All-Time: Calvin Murphy (Norwalk) - 17.9/2.1/4.4 (1971-1983) - The shortest Hall of Famer (5'9) and world-class baton twirler, Calvin Murphy was only a one time all-star but did lead the Rockets in all-time scoring before Olajuwon. Active: Kris Dunn (New London) - 8.3/3.3/4.2 (2017- ) - A defensive specialist who was recently signed by the Atlanta Hawks, Dunn is currently out for ankle surgery but it seems only a matter of time (or rather minutes) before he makes an all-defense team. ----- Delaware (9 players) All-Time: Walt Hazzard/Mahdi Abdul-Rahman (Wilmington) - 12.6/3.0/4.9 (1965-1974) - Hazzard was a one time all-star in his career, notably averaging 24 points a game on the first team of the Seattle Supersonics. Active: Donte DiVincenzo (Newark) - 10.1/3.9/2.5 (2018- ) - The best young player in Milwaukee, the Big Ragu looks to have, once again, sacrificed 2p% for 3p% this season after a good defensive season last year. ----- District of Columbia (73 players) All-Time and Active: Kevin Durant - 27.1/7.1/4.1 (2008- ) - Another tough decision but I went with my gut/recency bias and chose Kevin Durant. 2013-14 MVP, 2x Finals MVP, 4x Scoring Champion, Durant is simply one the best scorers to ever play in the NBA. He currently looks to be starting another amazing season after missing a year with a torn achilles. ---- Florida (118 players) All-Time: David Robinson (Key West) - 21.1/10.6/2.5 (1989-2003) - Coming out the gates with All-NBA and All-Defense selections as a rookie, Robinson was instantly one of the best in the NBA. The Admiral is also part of an exclusive club of players who won both an MVP and DPOY. He also also he has a better moustache than Ewing and Olajuwon. Active: Trevor Ariza (Miami) - 10.5/4.8/2.2 (2005- ) - The most traded player in NBA history Trevor Ariza will most likely be remembered for his time as the starting small forward on the 65-17 Houston Rockets team and as being one the best 3&D players in the league during his prime. ----- Georgia (133 players) All-Time and Active: Dwight Howard (Atlanta) - 16.6/12.2/1.4 (2004- ) - Superman Dwight Howard was undoubtedly the best center in the league during his prime. The 3x DPOY lead the Orlando Magic to their 2nd Finals Appearance in 2009 and then went to, like, a lot of different teams. ----- Hawaii (2 players) All-Time: Cedric Ceballos (Maui) - 14.3/5.3/1.2 (1990-2001) - Ceballos was a one time all-star for the Lakers in the mid-nineties where he had back to back 21 points per game seasons. He appeared with Shawn Marion on the Amazing Race in 2018 where they were eliminated 4th. ----- Idaho (5 players) All-Time: Luke Ridnour (Coeur d'Alene) - 9.3/2.3/4.5 (2003-2015) - Luke Ridnour was a solid point guard for 12 years. The year before he retired, he was traded four times in six days. (Magic > Grizzlies > Hornets > Thunder >Raptors > Waived) ----- Illinois (288 players) All-Time: Dwyane Wade (Chicago) - 22.0/4.7/5.4 (2003-2019) - Flash was a thirteen time All-Star and had eight All-NBA selections. Wade is most remembered for his time has a member of the big three in Miami, but his all-time finals performance in 2006 is what puts him in the greatest shooting guard conversation. Active: Anthony Davis (Chicago) - 21.3/9.0/3.4 (2012- ) - Anthony Davis is coming off his first championship win and is the best center in the league despite playing power forward. Consistently one of the best players on both ends of the floor, Davis is a leading candidate for Defensive Player of Year, again. ----- Indiana (155 players) All-Time: Larry Bird (West Baden) - 24.3/10.0/6.3 (1979-1992) - Easily one of the greatest of all time. Larry Bird was consistently amazing throughout his unfortunately brief prime. One of three people to win three MVP awards in a row and the best player on the of the greatest teams of all-time in the 1986 Celtics. He the only person in the NBA to win MVP, Coach of the Year, and Executive of the Year. Active: Gordon Hayward (Indianapolis) - 15.4/4.4/3.5 (2010- ) - After becoming an all-star for Utah, Gordon Hayward signed a massive deal with Boston in free agency where he snapped his leg 5 minutes into his first game in green. After a few more freak injuries, Hayward looks to be back to all-star form in Charlotte. ----- Iowa (23 players) All-Time and Active: Harrison Barnes (Ames) - 13.7/4.9/1.7 (2012- ) - The original tall guy on Golden State's death lineup, Barnes would win a championship with the Warriors in 2015 and started on the 73-9 team. He currently plays forward for the Sacramento Kings. Last season Barnes was more efficient in the post than Davis and Towns. ----- Kansas (36 players) All-Time: Alvan Adams (Lawrence) - 14.1/7.0/4.1 (1975-1988) - The Oklahoma Kid, Alvan Adams, became an all-star and lead the Suns to the finals in his rookie year. He spent his entire career in Phoenix and still works there as the Sun's VP for Facility Management. Active: Willie Cauley-Stein (Spearville) - 9.5/6.3/1.6 (2015- ) - Currently the third most famous center for the Dallas Mavericks. In 2015 Willie added Stein to his last name after his mother and made his nickname, Trill, his new middle name. ----- Kentucky (113 players) All-Time: Wes Unseld (Louisville) - 10.8/14.0/3.9 (1968-1981) - Wes Unseld won both MVP and Rookie of the Year in the same year, one of two people to do so. The Big U stayed with the Bullets for his entire career and last worked as an assistant coach, head coach, vice president, and general manager for the team. Active: Rajon Rondo (Louisville) - 10.2/4.7/8.2 (2006- ). Rondo was very suddenly pushed into the spotlight as the 24-58 team he first played for became the championship favorite over one offseason. Rondo would later go on to win two championships, have four All-Star and All-Defense appearances, and lead the league in assists per game three times. ----- Louisiana (121 players) All-Time: Bill Russell (Monroe) - 15.1/22.5/4.3 (1956-1969) - He won ELEVEN championships what do you want. Active: Paul Millsap (Monroe) - 13.9/7.3/2.2 (2006- ) - Paul Millsap became a four-time all-star after signing with the Atlanta Hawks and was an important member for the 60-win team in 2015. Underrated in the all-time second round picks discussion. ----- Maine (2 players) All-Time and Active: Duncan Robinson (York) - 14.8/3.9/1.7 (2018- ) - One of the Miami Heat's breakout undrafted players last year. Duncan Robinson looks to be on track to becoming one of the best three-point specialists in the NBA, shooting 44% last season. He also shot 65% on 2 pointers. ----- Maryland (74 players) All-Time: Sam Cassell (Baltimore) - 15.7/3.2/6.0 (1993-2008) - Sam Cassell was another late bloomer winning his first All-Star appearance and All-NBA selection in 2004 at age 34. The three-time champion came into the league with the 1994 Houston Rockets and retired with the 2008 Boston Celtics. Active: Victor Oladipo (Silver Spring) - 17.4/4.6/3.9 (2013- ) - Oladipo broke out in the 2017-18 season winning Most Improved Player along with his first All-Star, All-Defense, and All-NBA selections. Since that season he has been dealing with injuries but has very recently been traded to the Houston Rockets. ----- Massachusetts (45 players) All-Time: Bill Laimbeer (Boston) - 12.9/9.7/2.0 (1980-1993) - In the eighties Laimbeer was one of the most infamous players in the league as he and the Bad Boy Pistons won two championships. An early stretch 5, in 1989-1990 he shot 36% from 3 on a team high two attempts a game. The three-time all-star has also won three WNBA championships and two WNBA Coach of the Year Awards. Active: Michael Carter-Williams (Hamilton) - 10.3/4.4/4.3 (2013- ) - His NBA debut was 22 points, 7 rebounds, 12 assists, and 9 steals. Unfortunately, MCW has never quite reached that level of hype or performance again. ----- Michigan (158 players) All-Time: Magic Johnson (Lansing) - 19.5/7.2/11.2 (1979-1991 1996) - The greatest point guard of all time despite a tragically shortened career. Awards: 12x All-Star, 10x All-NBA, 3x MVP, 5x Champion, 3x FMVP. Lead the league in assists four times and steals twice. P4P best smile. Active: Draymond Green (Saginaw) - 8.9/6.9/5.0 (2012- ) - One of the most versatile defenders ever, one of the best passing big men ever, one of the shortest big men ever. Green was one of the key pieces of the Warriors dynasty that won three championships in five consecutive finals appearances. In that time, he won DPOY and made 3 All-Star teams, 2 All-NBA teams, and 5 All-Defensive teams. ----- Minnesota (60 players) All-Time: Kevin McHale (Hibbing) - 17.9/7.3/1.7 (1980-93) - McHale started his career as one the best sixth men of all time before taking his spot in the starting lineup and developed into one of the best power forwards of all-time. He won three championships and had seven all-star selections as a career Celtic. Active: Tyus Jones (Burnsville) - 5.7/1.6/3.6 (2015- ) - A solid two-way point guard for the Memphis Grizzlies, Tyus Jones holds the record for the highest assist to turnover ratio in a season from his 2018-19 season with 6.9:1. ----- Mississippi (92 players) All-Time: Spencer Haywood (Silver City) - 20.3/10.3/1.8 (1969-1970 (ABA) 1971-1980 1981-1983) - Haywood won ABA MVP and ROY in 1970 averaging 30 points and 19.5 rebounds, leading the league in both categories. In the NBA he was a five All-Star and made the All-NBA team four times. Active: Rodney Hood (Meridian) - 12.1/2.8/1.9 (2014- ) - Rodney Hood has been a solid offensive 2/3 since coming into the league. He is coming back from an achilles tear suffered last season. ----- Missouri (69 players) All-Time and Active: Jayson Tatum (St Louis) - 17.7/6.0/2.3 (2017- ) - Too early? Jayson Tatum looks to be a superstar two-way forward for the Boston Celtics, making an All-NBA team in his third season as well as leading the team to the ECF. Tatum finished second in all-time rookie playoff points with 351, only a single point behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. ----- Montana (11 players) All-Time: Mike Lewis (Missoula) - 12.1/11.9/3.0 (1968-1974) - Drafted by the Celtics but only ever played in the ABA, his career was cut short by an achilles injury. His basketball reference page says he was a two-time all-star but only shows one star. ----- Nebraska (14 players) All-Time: Bob Boozer (Omaha) - 14.8/8.1/1.4 (1960-1971) - One time all-star for the Bulls 1967-68 and went out with a championship with the Bucks. Not related to Carlos. ----- Nevada (12 Players) All-Time: Ricky Davis (Las Vegas) - 13.5/3.5/3.3 (1999-2010) - Nicknamed Wrong Rim Ricky, he most notably averaged 20 points a game on the Cavs team that drafted Lebron. Active: Troy Brown Jr (Las Vegas) - 7.6/4.3/2.1 (2018- ) - Young small forward for the Wizards, showed improvement in his sophomore season but he seen reduced minutes in his third season so far. ----- New Hampshire (1 player) Only: Matt Bonner (Concord) - 5.8/3.0/0.7 (2004- 2016) - Longtime backup big man for the Spurs where he won two championships. Assumed to still be searching for the Hoagie Grail. ----- New Jersey (143 players) All-Time: Shaquille O'Neal (Newark) - 23.7/10.9/2.5 (1992-2011) - THE MOST DOMINANT BIG MAN IN NBA HISTORY. Four rings, fifteen time All-Star, fourteen time All-NBA, 2000 MVP. Currently hanging out with Tony the Tiger. Active: Karl-Anthony Towns (Edison) - 22.7/11.8/2.8 (2015- ) - Had to choose between him and Bam, so not sure about this one. Either way, KAT is going to be best shooting big man of all time. Currently dealing with health issues, hopefully he comes back strong. ----- New Mexico (7 players) All-Time: Bill Bridges (Hobbs) - 11.9/11.9/2.8 (1963-1975) - Was a three time All-Star, two time All-Defense, and won a championship in 1975 with the Warriors. Not a lot of information about the guy unfortunately. ----- New York (411 players) All-Time: Michael Jordan (Brooklyn) - 30.1/6.2/5.3 (1984-1993 1995-1998 2001-2003) - Its between him and Abdul-Jabbar. The most common GOAT answer. Jordan led the league in scoring ten times, five MVPs, six championships. Most important person in basketball history other than maybe Naismith and Stern. Active: Carmelo Anthony (Brooklyn) - 23.4/6.5/2.9 (2003- ) - Ten time All-Star, six time All-NBA, lead the league in scoring in 2012-13, one of the faces of 21st century basketball. Only player to win every rookie of the month award and not win rookie of the year. Currently coming off the bench for Portland. ----- North Carolina (139 players) All-Time and Active: Chris Paul (Winston-Salem) - 18.4/4.5/9.5 (2005- ) - One of the greatest point guards ever. Kinda bored of listing awards, he has simply been great and an absolute game-changer since day one. Will finish top 5 in assists and steals. ----- North Dakota (6 players) All-Time and Active: Doug McDermott (Grand Forks) - 8.4/2.2/0.9 (2014- ) - Dougie McBuckets has been an automatic three-point shooter since his sophomore season and judging by Korver's and Kerr's careers, he has quite a few years to go. ----- Ohio (195 players) All-Time and Active: Lebron James (Akron) - 27.0/7.4/7.4 (2003- ) - The other GOAT guy. Still arguably the best player in the NBA at 36. You've heard it all. Ten finals appearances, four rings, 16 time All-Star and All-NBA (most first team selections too), four-time MVP. Also, shoutout to Steph Curry, best shooter ever. ----- Oklahoma (48 players) All-Time and Active: Blake Griffin (Oklahoma City) - 21.5/8.8/4.4 (2010- ) - One of the best highlight reels in the sport. Started out as a super explosive rookie all-star and later transitioned into becoming one of the most well-rounded players in the league. Had injury problems throughout his career and it seems they finally took him down a peg these past couple of seasons. ----- Oregon (32 players) All-Time: A.C. Green (Portland) - 9.6/7.4/1.1 (1985-2001) - The power forward for late period Showtime. Won three championships as a Laker, one time All-Star and All-Defense. Played 1192 consecutive games and only missed 3 total games in his career. Active: Domantas Sabonis (Portland) - 12.5/8.2/2.7 (2016- ) - Carrying on the Sabonis legacy by becoming one the best big men in league, combining passing and post play while also adding some three-point attempts recently. Already an all-star in fourth season and has a bright future. ----- Pennsylvania (239 players) All-Time: Wilt Chamberlain (Philadelphia) - 30.1/22.9/4.4 (1959-1973) - Wilt has lots of awards and most of the NBA records. Kobe is also one the greatest of all time with five championships and is arguably the best scorer of the 21st century but isn't eligible for the list. Active: Kyle Lowry (Philadelphia) - 14.8/4.3/6.2 (2006- ) - One of the best two-way point guards of this decade. Six time all-star and a championship along with one of the cutest bromances. Literally drew 2 charges in the last minute of the all-star game how do you not love this guy. ----- Rhode Island (10 players) All-Time: Marvin Barnes (Providence) - 16.0/9.1/2.1 (1974-1976 (ABA) 1976-1980) - ABA rookie of year and two time all-star. There is a story that when a flight was scheduled to arrive before it departure time (going from eastern time to central time), he refused to board due to this and rented a car instead stating "I ain't getting in no damn time machine." ----- South Carolina (46 players) All-Time: Kevin Garnett (Greenville) - 17.8/10.0/3.7 (1995-2016) - Arguably the best American-born power forward. Another player to win both DPOY and MVP in his career, Garnett also was a 15x All-Star, 9x All-NBA, and 12x All-Defense. The best player in Timberwolves history and the first in Minnesota's lineage of star big men named K. Active: Khris Middleton (Charleston) - 16.5/4.7/5.4 (2012- ) - Middleton is a star 2/3 for the Milwaukee Bucks. Coming off his second all-star appearance, the two-way wing is still seeking to become the ninth member of the 50/40/90 club in the NBA. ----- South Dakota (5 players) All-Time: Mike Miller (Mitchell) - 10.6/4.2/2.6 (2000-2017) - Long-time 3pt specialist, Mike Miller, is notable for having won Rookie of The Year in 2000; considered one of the weakest draft classes of the modern era. Miller also won Sixth Man of the Year in 2005-06 and two championships with the Heatles. He once owned a crab-eating macaque. ----- Tennessee (95 players) All-Time: Oscar Robertson (Charlotte) - 25.7/7.5/9.5 (1960-1974) - Oscar Robertson is the all-time leader in triple-doubles as well as the first person to average a triple double for a season. An all-time great guard, Robertson struggled to carry the Cincinnati Royals past the first round but was later able to win a championship with the Bucks in 1971. Active: Lou Williams (Memphis) - 14.4/2.3/3.4 (2005- ) - The record-tying three-time Sixth Man of the Year is one of the best scorers off the bench in NBA history. A late bloomer, Williams had arguably his best seasons in his early thirties but is currently facing reduced minutes on the LA Clippers this season. ----- Texas (193 players) All-Time: Chris Bosh (Dallas) - 19.2/8.5/2.0 (2003-2016) - The tale of a career we saw the almost the entire prime of, but not quite enough of to leave no questions about the extent of his legacy. Chris Bosh was a two-time champion and eleven time All-Star but only ever made one All-NBA team. Active: LaMarcus Aldridge (Dallas) - 19.5/8.3/2.0 (2006- ) - The hall of very good guy. One of the best big men in the league for almost a decade straight for Portland and San Antonio. Aldridge was the star acquisition that catapulted the 2015-16 Spurs to 67 wins and the unfortunate distinction of one the best teams to never win a championship. ----- Utah (26 players) All-Time: Tom Chambers (Ogden) - 18.1/6.1/2.1 (1981-1995 1997) - Tom Chambers was a four time All-Star and had two All-NBA selections. Famously the first ever unrestricted free agent, he joined the Phoenix Suns, the first team to send him an offer. Active: John Collins (Layton) - 16.2/8.8/1.6 (2017- ) - John Collins is a crazy efficient 23 year old power forward coming off two 20/10 seasons. Despite his potential, he seems having a down year on a good then not so good Atlanta Hawks team. ----- Vermont (0 players) ----- Virginia (82 players) All-Time: Moses Malone (Petersburg) - 20.3/12.3/1.3 (1974-1976 (ABA) 1976-1994) - The best undrafted player in NBA history and will probably remain so for a very long time. Over his career he was a three-time MVP, one-time champion, and had thirteen all-star appearances. In his rookie year in the NBA he played six minutes in Buffalo before being traded for two first round picks, preventing a trio of McAdoo, Malone, and Dantley. Active: Jeremy Lamb (Henrico) - 10.5/3.7/1.6 (2012- ) - Lamb had a bit of a breakout year in Charlotte during the 2018-19 season when he started most of the games he played for the first time in his career. Currently a member of the Indiana Pacers, Lamb is recovering from a major knee injury sustained last year. ----- Washington (64 players) All-Time: John Stockton (Spokane)- 13.5/2.7/10.5 (1984-2003) - John Stockton is the all-time leader in assists and steal and look to remain so for a very long time as well. His almost insurmountable lead on the assist record comes from him leading the league in total assists nine times in a row, as well as only missing 14 games out of a possible 1518. Active: Zach LaVine (Renton) - 18.0/3.7/3.7 (2014- ) - LaVine has been on the cusp of an all-star appearance these past couple years and looks to be in the hunt again this year as he continues to be a versatile offensive wing. Someone sign Isaiah Thomas. ----- West Virginia (28 players) All-Time: Jerry West (Chelyan) - 27.0/5.8/6.7 (1960-1974) - The Logo himself, Jerry West was an All-Star every season of his 14-year career along with 12 All-NBA selections. While West was one of the faces of the 1960s, he didn't win a championship until 1972, thanks bill. West went on to have a successful career as an executive, currently working for the LA Clippers. ----- Wisconsin (65 Players) All-Time: Latrell Sprewell (Milwaukee) - 18.3/4.1/4.0 (1992-2005) - Sprewell was a four time All-Star and made the first team All-NBA and second team All-Defense in his second season. In 1997 was suspended for the 82 games, later shortened to 68 games, good for second longest in NBA history. Active: Tyler Herro (Milwaukee) - 14.1/4.5/2.4 (2019- ) - A young prospect for the Miami Heat and although he had a good rookie year (a good start to his second season), he has so far been defined by his 37 point performance in the ECF last season. ----- Wyoming (7 players) All-Time and Active: James Johnson (Cheyenne) - 8.0/3.6/2.1 (2009- ) - Johnson is a versatile journeyman big man who currently plays for the Dallas Mavericks after being traded three times in 2020. Has a 20-0 record in kickboxing. ----- So that's my list, if you think I should add anything, clean up a paragraph, or spot some mistakes let me know. Sourced from basketball reference, nba.com, and wikipedia ***** EDIT: Should've specified a few things first:
"Active" is meant to be the active player with the best overall career rather than the best this season
I went with where someone was born based off their wikipedia and basketball reference page. I ignored where people spent most of their childhood/lives for the sake of simplicity on my part.
FAQ: Bill Russell was born in Louisiana, Jordan was born in NY, Kevin Love was born in California, Kyrie Irving was born in Australia, and Carlos Boozer was born in Germany. Kevin Durant was born in a DC hospital and thus on the pages I checked he is listed as from DC, oh also DC isn't in Maryland or Virginia, its different.
I forgot about Jimmy Butler in Texas (;_;)
----- US Virgin Islands (3 players) All-Time: Tim Duncan - 19.0/10.8/3.0 (1997-2016) - Tim Duncan , much like Spurs teammate David Robinson, was instantly one of the best players in the league winning FMVP in his second season. Over the rest of his career he won 5 championships, 2 MVPs, 15x All-Star and All-NBA including the oldest All-NBA first team selection at 36. He was a record breaking 15x All-Defense and is often considered the second best defender in NBA history despite not winning a DPOY. ----- Puerto Rico (8 players) All-Time: JJ Barea - 8.9/2.1/3.9 (2006-2020) - Longtime Maverick and fan favorite point guard JJ Barea won a championship in Dallas in 2011. He was still an effective scorer into his thirties scoring 10+ points per game in his age 31-34 seasons despite limited appearances. ***** did you know mark eaton is the only multi-time dpoy winner to not win it consecutively
My husband is currently on a vacation with his mistress & I'm confronting them...
Hello Reddit! Forgive me as I am new to the online community. Just wanted to tell my story and maybe get some input. I [37F] accidentally found out last month my husband [38M] was using 'work trips' as an excuse to sleep with his also married coworker who lives across the country. When I say accidentally; he sent me a screen shot of Amazon purchases for our children and included at the bottom of the photo was a delivery to this woman. So yes, the worried wife in me checked his search history and email. It was all right there! I learned his November trip was a romantic getaway but this current one is luxurious! A spa resort complete with couples massages, couples cooking classes and monogramed bathrobes from etsy. He mailed her a box of gifts a few days ago for Christmas (how sweet), he purchases sexy lingerie, sent her money on venmo and even started planning a January trip to Las Vegas. I was furious when I learn all this but I kept my composure. My plan: He left this morning for his 'work trip' but before he left I gathered all evidence of his affair. I spent 4 weeks collecting emails, credit card statements, reservations and confirmations. I wrote him a 10 page letter, put it in an envelope and taped it inside the lining of his suitcase. I plan on sending a group text to him and his mistress right after check in telling them to enjoy their trip. I will also inform them that a letter is in his suitcase and that I want a divorce. I wrote a special section just for her and I want to make sure she sees it so I will be emailing her the letter as well. He is currently in the air. My group text goes out this evening. Stay tuned... UPDATE! His flight landed 1 1/2 hours ago. He told me he would text me when he landed and he has yet to do so. I have text him twice, they were delivered but not read. I checked our phone records and he text both me and her during his lay over. His email shows no Uber receipt from his final destination airport to his hotel. She must have picked him up. Something I probably should have clarified in my OP. She lives in the state he is visiting. So he flew alone. I will be sending a group text to both him and his mistress in 2 hours as that will be 4pm their time and check in. UPDATE #2 Sent pictures of our children and he did not respond. FYI he is in the middle of the desert. My texts are going through green which puts a monkey wrench in my plan for a group text to him and his mistress. Need suggestions. Should I call the hotel? Connect right to their room. I worked so hard for this, it has to be tonight. HELP! UPDATE #3 Thank you to everyone standing by and waiting. My best friend has come to my house to help me through this. It seems my texts are going through green (undelivered) but when my friend tried it is blue and delivered. HE HAS BLOCKED ME! I guess that helps his guilt. The plan now is to call the hotel. Will wait a few minutes after check in to make the call. Very soon. Please stand by. UPDATE #4 Like most of you predicted he does not care, He had zero answers for my questions. That was. the mot hurtful part. But guess what, I have all the emotional support and economic support so i'm not mad. Every question I asked he had no response because his mistress was sitting there. I suspect when he is home alone with me, his answers will be different. I have made sure that he will not emotionally and financially fuck me because I have secured support from family and friends. He can go FUCK himself!!!!!! UPDATE #5 Called his hotel room. Talked to his mistress and finally lost my shit. He ended up calling me a few minutes later and had zero empathy. I'm shocked, but I'm not. He said a divorce was in order and fought me on nothing. I expected him to be sad, he was not, but thats ok. I started packing up his shit, I have some great friend who helped me put everything in the garage. Good riddance? I guess so... The Morning After I wake this morning broken. My house is in shambles as I went on a rampage yesterday ripping photos off the wall, throwing his stuff in piles on the floor and breaking random objects in anger. Now that I've had a nights sleep I feel that I am a bit clearer in my thinking as I analyze the 'conversation' we had yesterday. He was different on the phone. That was not the man I know, but who was the man I've known? Because everything was a lie. The only thing he cared about on the phone was getting the kids. Which is perfectly ok, he should want to see his kids. But he refused to answer any question I had or admit to anything. I personally feel his lack of remorse was because he was sitting in front of his mistress. If I confronted him at home this would not have been his reaction. When he comes home Monday night I expect to see a different man. Also, in my conversation with the mistress I learned she is recently separated. I called my mom. That was hard. While she and my dad have always been loving and supporting it was hard to make that phone call. I felt like a failure. I know it wasn't my doing but to admit that I made a poor choice in a spouse was difficult. Was this all because of a mistake I made 13 years ago? Honestly it doesn't matter. I have 2 days to empty my house of his things. Who do I tell? Do I call his dad? Do I tell his mother? Best friend? Work buddies? I wish there was a manual on how to do this because I'm lost. Even with all my preparation I'm still humiliated. Luckily he did not take his house keys when he left. So no need to change the locks, I'll be removing his keys and sending him on his way. I don't plan on seeing him when he gets home Monday night. Doors are locked, everything you own is in the garage, have your people talk to my people and I'll see you never. Preparing for the Return My friends and family have been wonderful. I am so fortunate to have such great people in my life. Yesterday they came to help me move all of his clothing to the garage. His collectibles were all packed up and sitting here, waiting to be appraised. It took a very long time and I was exhausted afterwards; but it was necessary. I honestly don't think he expects me to have gone to such great lengths to remove him from my life. Because I was so emotional when I confronted him there is a chance that he thinks I will want to reconcile. Fat chance, buddy. His flights lands a little before 10pm tonight. When he Ubers back home the doors will be locked. He told me on the phone he was just getting his car and leaving. I will be holding him to that. Something I should have mentioned earlier, the house is in my name only. He had no credit when we first started looking so everything is in my maiden name and purchased by me. Health insurance, car insurance, cell phones, utilities are all in my name. The only thing his name is on is his car. I think he realizes now that could all come back to bite him. I don't want a messy divorce, I'm willing to listen to his demands and try and meet in the middle on as many things as possible. He obviously doesn't care anymore so I'm going to do my best to not care and treat this like a business deal. Update late tonight on his return. Thank you to everyone following and showing support. You are appreciated. The Dust has Settled It's been a few days since his return. For a man who so diligently planned a secret retreat with his mistress he took no time to plan for his return 'home.' He has been living in the basement since Monday. I allowed him to watch the children open gifts on Christmas but he has since returned to the basement. We have contacted 3 mediators and have appointments next week to start the mediation process. It's obviously over. We had a conversation/argument upon his return and he actually asked about reconciliation. I laughed. I laughed uncontrollably. Of course he pushed blame stating that our marriage has been over for a long time. Well, that's news to me. His actions of an affair were selfish and avoidant. He didn't want to have that hard conversation with me about counseling or divorcing and this route was easier and a lot more fun. Let's face it, he likes the attention of 2 women loving and pining over him. Well, I'm not longer playing that game. She wins, and oh what a prize he is! I have been amicable about talking about the terms of our separation. My biggest hang up is her. He may continue seeing her and I have questions about her character. What kind of woman/mother cheats with a man she knows is married and knows has children? When I confronted her on the phone last Saturday and asked her that question she was silent. I asked if she was 'sorry' and it was as if the line went dead. That kind of person I do not want around my children. People who show no remorse, especially when they are in the wrong, are not kind people. I have found solace in friends and family and thank you to everyone's recommendation of ChumpLady. I'm half way through the book, read through the website and find it so helpful. Thank you again to everyone. I can't believe the outpouring of support. To the trolls, sorry you think I'm an unfit and inattentive wife, but cheaters cheat because they want to. Thank you again to all, not sure if you want a mediation update or if my story is over. Either way, I'm happy to have 'met' you all. Where is the 'fault'? If you listen to the books and advice always given about cheaters it all says the same thing: It's not you, they made a choice. MY STBX insists things were bad. While I don't think we were Pam and Jim or Lucy and Ricky, I think things were good. This process has made me review who I am, who I've been and who I want to be. Could I have made changes? Yes. Was I perfect? Absolutely not. But my decisions and actions were never detrimental to our marriage. They were more like sacrifices. And now I'm having those sacrifices thrown at me and I'm being called neglectful. Is all this about attention? A narcissistic need to be the apple of someone's eye? Him and the AP are now blissfully in the honeymoon stage. Vacations, late night phone calls like teenagers, present buying, etc. But what happens when the other shoe drops? What happens when she sees that he has very little patience with children? That he will walk past a a sink full of dishes completely blind to them? When he doesn't pay the phone bill for 2 months because he is spending money on silly gadgets? What then? While it's not my problem, I'm sure his AP will take issue with these things. Perhaps then she will be put in the situation I've been in for a decade. Should she be the glue and hold it all together or should she neglect responsibilities for his neediness? I've been told by him ( someone who is having a relationship and spending large sums of money on someone else) that I'm at fault. Perhaps, but what about the decades of cleaning up your messes? Maybe if I would have had 2 hour conversations with him every night things would be different, but to be honest, I'm happy I'm here. Now reflecting back I see how under appreciated I was. How neglected I was. All these year I thought I was helping but I was really being taken advantage of and this affair is no different. Just a word of advice to all the mess cleaners, excuse makers, and spouse sheltering people reading this. Stop. Stop now. I've learned that all the 'helping' is simply them learning how to manipulate you. Draw that line in the sand. Prepare for an uncomfortable situation when they start to stumble under the pressures of real life. But don't lose yourself. I lost myself years ago and it's not a place you want to be. Mediation & The Move. We had our first mediation appointment via Zoom yesterday. It was very amicable, but only because I don't want to fight and I just want this to be over. He apparently wants nothing. Not the house, not the furniture, not what he's entitled to of my pension; he just wants to be done as well. As I've been packing up things in the house to declutter I've been offering him things, but he wants nothing. I suspect the moment our marriage is dissolved he will be packing up his collectables and clothing and driving across the country to live with her. I guess I should be ok with this as I don't want to be married to him anymore. It just kills me that he will be moving in with her and helping her raise her 2 children while mine are fatherless. It makes me so angry. Seething. The man who was abandoned by his father is now doing the same thing. Something he said would never ever happened because of the mental issues it has given him today. Well, it looks like that, as well as mostly everything else, was a lie. Again, I take solace in the fact that their honeymoon phase will be short lived. Reality will smack them both in the face and she will realize that he can be more hurt than help. While I wish him well and hope the best, our kids deserve more than a Christmas/Easteone week in the summer father. No dad at basketball games, cub scouts, birthday parties and school plays. Meanwhile AP will have him and her children's biological father. I guess nothing in life is fair and my boys will have to learn that lesson early than I had hoped. He's Gone. My STBX left yesterday morning to visit her. I told him to go. I didn't want to spend NYE with him and our COVID circle friends who we celebrate with have zero interest in seeing him either. He booked a flight 30 minutes after I told him to go. My only stipulation was that he is back for this weekend as it's my birthday and I really need a day to myself. I've watched the kids for 3 weekends now while he went to see his mistress, I thought I at least deserved my birthday to relax. He text me while he was boarding that he won't be home for my birthday. Well then... He claims when he booked this he booked a return for the evening of my birthday. When he tried to change it he was put on standby, it would cost $1000 to change, it was a red eye etc. The excuses kept coming. He apparently does not realize I have access to the internet as well and flights are less than $300 with the airline he flew. I told him this and he said those flights weren't there when he booked (lies) and he will take care of it. I just want him to be honest. If you don't want to be here for my birthday, just say it. If you don't want to spend the day with your children, just tell me. I can't force you to be a parent. I told him the flights were available and affordable, it's his choice to rebook. Ball is in your court. That's all I can do, right? Stay tuned for an update on his return this weekend.. NYE Nightmare. It was 12:40am on NYE and there was still no call from him. I was angry for no other reason than I explained to the kids that even though daddy wasn't with us he would call at midnight to talk to them and wish them a Happy New Year. I was made to be a liar. So, I text my STBX and his excuse was, 'they are with their friends, I didn't want to bother them'. Excuse me? Bother them? You mean you didn't want your kids to bother you is what you are really saying. If I was across the country on NYE without my kids I would have called and done the countdown with them via facetime. I think most parents would. But not him. He said, "If you would have told me that you told the kids I'd call then I would have." He tried to spin this on me, that I created this mess. Why do I have to tell you that you need to call your children at midnight? This small act said a lot to me. Our children are not a priority. I guess he didn't want to ruin his perfect vacation at his new girlfriend's house with her children. He has a nice new family now. Today is my birthday and he returns this evening. I told him in my NYE text that I will speak to him on the 12th, our next mediation meeting because I'm done. I tried to be civil for the kids but he is not putting forth the effort for them. Liar Liar, Pants on Fire. The past few days have been strange. We rarely talk (a decision on both our parts) and when we do it's about mediation, plans moving forward, or the kids. We have been civil and communicating well about those items. We are also friendly in front of the children as not to upset them. The situation is strange because we are getting along, there is no arguing, it's a shared focus to just get through mediation and divorce. That's fine by me. Last night while I was cleaning the kitchen I heard him on the phone in the basement. I guess he didn't realize the door was left open by one of the children. Not wanting to be a part of the drama anymore I went to close the door. At that point I heard him tell her how 'crazy' I have been acting. Excuse me? We don't speak and when we do it's very civil. How is that crazy? Well, he proceeded to tell her about a conversation we had and he lied about everything. While the conversation part was true he told her I exploded, I was in a rage, I was crying etc. None of that was true. He explained how he laughed in my face at my rage, also not true because there was no rage. I had told him awhile back before the NYE debacle that I would start dating eventually and he proceeded to tell her that I was bragging about guys I'm meeting. So far from the truth. I slammed the basement door. I'm sure he knows I heard. So I ask, 'Why the need to lie and make me a villain?' We aren't staying together, I have no reason to fight with you anymore, that's why we are paying a mediator. Why start lying to your new girlfriend that you love? How is that a good way to start a relationship? I don't know what is happening here... This is my concern: This woman and him are in love and want to start a life together. Ok, thats fine, God bless and congrats. But, this woman only knows me by the stories (which I'm assuming are all lies) he has told her about me. If he does move across the country to be with her, how can I trust a woman who hates me because of misinformation to treat my children properly? I don't care if she hates me personally, I'll still sleep fine at night, but now I'm worried about sending my kids in the summer to stay with them. I want to confront him about this but I know I can't. Maybe it's not that I can't, but I don't know how. Also, he has told no one we are separated and definitely has not told people why. How come? You initiated this, you cheated, you are happy now, so why can't you tell people? He told his father that he was bringing the kids alone to visit him because he and I 'weren't seeing eye to eye at the moment.' What?! I would assume he's afraid to face the music or is just finding comfort in the little love bubble he has created. He chooses to not face reality. He has yet to look for an apartment for when the divorce is finalized but has booked another fight out to see her for Valentine's Day. He is refusing to face reality and it's so frustrating. We have mediation on 1/12 to discuss custody and hope that we can settle everything and get the paperwork moving. I'm having a scheduled phone conversation with a lawyer today to discuss what I should ask for in terms of physical and legal custody when he moves. Update you all (if you want it of course) on mediation after the 12th. Mediation and Empty Promises Yesterday was our second mediation appointment. While it was amicable, there was some obvious tension. The tension was not on my end but more on his. Let me explain... During our first mediation we brought up the topic that he might move out of state. At yesterdays meeting I asked what we would do about custody if he moves to this particular state. When I mentioned the state by name the mediator was confused. This prompted her to ask him why this state that is so far away. His answer? "Well......." Then silence. He couldn't put into words the fact that he was leaving to be with his girlfriend. I had to finally chime in realizing we are paying by the hour that he was moving to be with his girlfriend. I realized later that was the first time he had semi-confessed to having an affair and a girlfriend to anyone. If you love this person so much why can't you just say it out loud? That whole situation confuses me. Anyway, when it comes to dollars and cents I will be fine. He will also be fine. He will have enough to do what he needs and so will I. We have agreed to a physical custody scenario that allows him weekend and dinner visits. Fine by me, I want my boys to have their father. But, the situation becomes a bit more difficult when he moves. While he said yesterday he plans to stay here at least a year, I doubt that will actually happen. When he does move across the country he wishes to return for one weekend of every month to see the boys. Again, I'm fine with this scenario but where will he stay that weekend? He has no family. Will he just be taking the boys to a hotel? Again, I don't think he actually thought this through. This is a problem I/we will tackle when he does decide to move. Lastly, the mediator said it could take about 2 months to finalize everything. He and I spoke after the session to go over some facts and figures and I brought up the tentative finalization date of our marriage. I told him how 2 months is a good amount of time to save some money and find an apartment to which he agreed. I also reminded him about his promise to not return to visit her until our divorce is finalized or he has a place to live. He quickly became frustrated telling me that he knew and tried to shut down the conversation. I told him I'm happy that we are on the same page but I'm not budging. If you leave while you still live here you can not come back, that is something we both agreed to. Now the big question remains; Who does he break a promise with? Obviously it's a win win for me, stay home and help me with the kids while you save $500+ and move out quickly or leave to visit her and I get you out of the house sooner. I'm happy with either decision. I just want to move on with my life and enjoy my moments with my children. Out For A Swim When I took this dive into the Reddit community I had no idea where I would land. I thought my feet would hit shallow ground and I would be ankle deep on the banks in an uncomfortable swimsuit all alone. But to my surprise this deep ocean of Reddit readers have engulfed me into their warm waters and I am surrounded by a sea of support. For this I am thankful. I am also so touched by the droves of people who have reached out for advice or offered their own experiences as lessons to be learned. To the ones seeking advice I tell them, I am not an expert swimmer. I am merely doggy paddling through this sea of hurt and confusion. Please don't use me as a sign of strength. Because the truth is, I am not strong, I am you. I am the woman who reads because they are suspicious of late night phones call her husband takes. I am the spouse who has shouldered the entire family and is in desperate need of support. I am the woman who misses affection from her husband who is next to her in bed every night. I. Am. You. To those people who have yet to catch their partner cheating but are suspicious, trust your gut. Cheating is a coward's choice so be braver than them and face the truth. To the spouse who is 'the fixer' and takes on every challenge, take a step back. When you help (even with good intention) you are actually just hurting yourself. To the spouse who has tried everything to receive physical attention from their partner but to no avail, their affection is probably going somewhere else. These are lesson I wish I could have told myself months, if not years ago. Listen to me. Or just listen to you. To the sharks in water who call me a 'bad mom', 'a crazy bitch', 'fake' or even just think I'm out of my mind, you will find no blood in this water. So it's best you move on and find a thread where the OP will chum the water for you. It's so very easy to read and judge, this I understand. I just hope that if this ever happens to you that you will be as brave, logical and composed as you expect others to be. If not, you will find sharks circling you as well. So I hope you are as strong of a swimmer as you claim to be. If you are still reading, my saga/survival continues. Our final mediation papers will arrive this week. We were able to settle everything at the last meeting on 1/12 and the documents just need our signature. After that, the divorce papers need to be served and filed with the county. Then we await our court date which will be done via Zoom. Yes, a bit anticlimactic, but it will still serve its purpose of divorcing. He has started (finally) to look for an apartment but nothing is to his satisfaction. Maybe he is being picky or maybe he is comfortable living in the basement. Either way, once the divorce papers are stamped he needs to be gone. He has started making phone calls to her during the day and I can hear him giggling downstairs. I'm happy he is happy, I really am. That isn't passive aggressive. I know I will be happy one day too, he just got there first and that's ok. I feel like my life is in limbo right now. I can't move forward because I'm chained to the past. I'm hoping his move will be soon. I suspect he wants out for February 1st so he can go visit her for Valentines Day. I hope for his sake (and mine) that he makes his deadline. I will update again after I receive the mediation paperwork and divorce papers are served. I'm sure that will stir up a lot of thought and emotion so I'm certain it will be a doozy. Till then, I'll keep doggy paddling. Souvenirs If you have been following along then you know that there was a chance he would leave for Valentine's Day to go visit her. Well, he left this morning. He told the kids, "I'm going" as he walked out the door leaving me to explain a few hours later that he had to leave to 'work' when they started asking for him. I have learned that I can't have expectations. Just because I would try to be more honest with the kids doesn't mean he would. I was really proud of the fact that I didn't even engage him in the discussion/debate/argument of going. Yes, I had loudly vocalized some feelings a week ago when he told me he was going but I have not engaged him about it since. All I asked was for his flight info so that I would know when to expect him back. He did not provide this information; maybe he thinks I'm not entitled to it. Either way, he left and I was fine. While we had the conversation multiple times (in which he agreed) that he would not visit her again till he had an apartment he has reneged on that agreement. Shocker. He claims that he has every right to be here (which he does legally) and he can do as he pleases. He put a down payment on an apartment a few days ago but says he doesn't know when he is moving. What? The bills he pays in the house are less than the child support he will have to pay, so I think his decision to stay longer might be a financial one. I've offered him any piece of furniture he wants in the house. I even offered to pay for 1/2 of the cost of bunk beds for the boys. I just need him to leave. I have no idea why he is dragging his feet. BUT, I learned through a mutual friend and former work colleague of theirs that she recently had COVID. When I say recently, I mean the board of health from her state said she could stop quarantining 3 days ago! But what about her kids that are in the home? Where they living there during her quarantine? Are they positive? Perhaps they are asymptomatic? Will my STBX be bringing me and our children home a COVID souvenir? I'm LIVID.
Since The Weeknd is performing at the Super Bowl Halftime show, I thought it’d be nice to post a little guide to his discography for anyone interested in looking to do a deep dive into his work. I would’ve posted this the day of the event, but I assume that some people would probably like to go through it over the weekend. This shares a direct overview of his released material, talking about his career and the background of the music, the videos, the meanings and all. I’ve written this from a pop perspective, keeping in mind that his history might be fairly new for general pop fans. I also go into the storyline of the red suit character, if your interested in catching up on that narrative before the Halftime show (which will continue the story), I’ve listed the chronological order below followed by an explanation of that narrative. I wanna be clear that the interpretations/theories are not conclusive. Abel rarely shares the metaphors or meanings behind his music. This is based on widely based on fan discussion/mutual interpretation. Fans can feel free to expand on anything in the comments. It is important to know about Abel's backstory to get a certain perspective of where he’s coming from, especially when discussing the songs that deal with substance abuse. These recent articles cover his early years really well and share an up-to-date point of view of his success. Variety 2020 Billboard 2021 - Also a good source for getting to know his team. So, an essential TL;DR is this: Abel Tesfaye came from a broken home, he was born to Ethiopian immigrant parents who split up when Tesfaye was less than seven. He then lived with his mother and grandmother, only rarely seeing his father but having a nice impression of him. His drug addiction started as soon as he was a high schooler, he turned to shoplifting to pay for this need of various substances. Soon he dropped out of high school, leaving his home the same weekend, which would later inspire his stage name, The Weeknd. The name is reference/homage to the weekend his life changed. Quick side note, I didn’t think this post would nearly reach the character limit. So I’ve cut out excess detail and lists of producers (with the exception of After Hours since we’re in that era). Table of contents
XO.
House of Balloons.
Thursday.
Echoes of Silence.
Trilogy.
Kiss Land.
King of the Fall.
Beauty Behind The Madness.
Starboy.
My Dear Melancholy.
After Hours.
XO.
XO is the record label that The Weeknd and co. created in order to publish the first mixtape (House of Balloons) and the ones that would follow afterwards. XO has a lot of meanings that have to do with what went into the music and what still goes into it. XO is what the fans call themselves, popularly with the phrase XO Till We OD (shortened to XOTWOD); another way of saying “we’re ride or die for The Weeknd and his team.” While some argue that it could mean anything since there isn’t clear meaning to it, fans continue to associate the abbreviation with ecstasy (X) and oxycontin (O). That definition stems from XOTWOD, fans assume it’s true because of the team’s history of drug usage. While others take it as it’s classical definition “hugs and kisses” because of the consistent lyrical nature of The Weeknd’s songs. Overtime the definition of XO is simply known as: the fans, the crew, and the label. The Weeknd is more than just one person, he comes with XO. For the sake of clarity in this writeup, I’m going to refer to his crew as XO and the fans as “the fans.” XO still serves as a record label, the current roster is The Weeknd, Belly, Nav, and Black Atlass. It remains The Weeknd’s record label and was his first label before becoming a subsidiary of Republic Records. Throughout his career, The Weeknd has worked with Illangelo, a Canadian producer who’s work the fans adore. Carlo “Illangelo” Montagnese was one of main the producers on The Weeknd’s Trilogy, he’s credited on each track. The fan base claims his work to be some of the most notable artistry in The Weeknd’s discography. Their work together continued with Beauty Behind The Madness, Illangelo worked on seven tracks for that album. He then returned for After Hours working on another seven tracks. DaHeala, another Canadian producer, is another significant factor in The Weeknd’s music. Jason “DaHeala” Quenneville worked as lead producer on Kiss Land. He returned to work on six tracks for The Weeknd’s Beauty Behind The Madness, including the hit Earned It. DaHeala returned as a writer for six of the songs on Starboy. Then DaHeala worked on nine After Hours tracks, and worked as the only producewriter alongside The Weeknd for bonus tracks Missed You and Final Lullaby.
This is a happy house. We’re happy here. (House of Balloons/Glass Table Girls)
One of the most iconic title tracks of all time. House of Balloons is about a lifestyle of drugs, sex, and partying; all in effort to drown out self-doubt. It comes from a place of wanting to make it big while doing what you can to survive, all while pretending everything’s alright. The mixtape describes various sorts of women, how they’ve had impacted the life of someone who’s already down on his luck. Fans often refer to House of Balloons as The Weeknd’s best work. The mixtape was the first introduction the world got of XO, and it was one hell of a way to make an impression. It’s personal for the fans and Abel because it’s the only piece of work known to be based on his life. At the end of the day he’s a songwriter, with many of his albums he creates scenarios and world that he likes to explore through the music. But House of Balloons is known to be based entirely on his life. It remains The Weeknd’s most critically acclaimed work. House of Balloons was crafted through the influences of Hip-Hip/Indie-Rock with the main focus on R&B. Through the genius of Ilangelo, the record was—and is—mesmerizing capturing the essence of a lifestyle that The Weeknd described as “anti-everything.” House of Balloons assisted The Weeknd in gaining the attention of Republic Records, which would then host The Weeknd’s own label XO. Though hesitant at first, XO decided to partner with Republic after the co-founding brothers Monte and Avery Lipman kept coming back to Toronto solely for The Weeknd. House of Balloons received three videos, The Knowing, Wicked Games and Twenty Eight. The Knowing was the very first video The Weeknd made, so of course it’d be something other-worldly; it essentially reflects the song itself but in a sci-fi setting. Twenty Eight represents Abel’s life after fame but also his remorse of letting captivating women into his life. Fun fact— House of Balloons is an actual place in Toronto, it was where him and his crew lived after he dropped out of high school. They’d host parties, call girls, do drugs, and to make it less depressing they’d fill it with balloons.
Thursday consists of the same themes as HoB; sex and drugs. But there’s a twist, he’s in a semi-relationship with this girl Valerie. She’s the only one on his mind, even though they meet only one day of the week, any guesses on what day that could be? Through The Weeknd’s phenomenal voice and the insane production, we’re also presented with this story of a toxic relationship where Valerie used to have the upper hand but she no longer does when she falls for The Weeknd. While Thursday isn’t entirely about the relationship of The Weeknd and Valerie, it consists of reflections to Abel’s life after the release of House of Balloons. The song Rolling Stone notably has a double meaning, in which Abel asks his fans if they’ll stick with him when he gets mainstream appeal and decides to change his sound. The track Valerie wasn’t on the original release of Thursday, it added when Trilogy was released. Ending the mixtape with Heaven or Las Vegas meant that The Weeknd’s actions with and without Valerie were a result of his fatherless childhood, making him push anyone away. That meaning behind Thursday doesn’t change when Valerie is added to the track list, it just means that both want the toxic relationship back. The Zone (feat. Drake) was the first feature The Weeknd had on any of his work, the video for it was released in November of 2012. Rolling Stone had also received a video in October of 2012. Both were directed by The Weeknd and reflect the two different aspects of Thursday. The Zone has Valerie living it up in the House of Balloons. And Rolling Stone has The Weeknd doing a photoshoot for Trilogy, reflective of the song itself. Fun Fact— the female voice heard in Lonely Star is The Weeknd’s, he pitched his voice to make it sound like a woman’s.
Laisse tomber les filles. Un jour c'est toi qu'on laissera. [Leave the girls alone. One day it’ll be you they will leave.] (Montreal)
Out of a dark introductory into the early life of The Weeknd, Echoes of Silence is the darkest work of his Trilogy. Let’s be honest the story here isn’t entirely ethical at times but makes for one hell of a mixtape. Similar to Thursday, Echoes of Silence follows a storyline. After accumulating success, The Weeknd gains the attention of various women. There was this one woman (D.D.) who he liked but she initially rejected him (Montreal). The woman came back to him for his fame status and evidently fell in love with him (Outside), but now that he’s got the upper hand he treats him like a groupie (XO/The Host) and lets... bad things happen to her; she’s gotta pass a test before she can get with him. This test is either drugs or his crew (Initiation). He ultimately tells this woman that he’s not exactly longterm-relationship material, perhaps because her love is temporary (Same Old Song), because he’s Next. With the end of Echoes of Silence (originally ending on the title track) the listener is left to wonder why The Weeknd left her if he’d simply want her to stay. As a side note— Initiation should not be condoned. It remains true that The Weeknd is a songwriter and the progression of time has changed perspectives. But a song that makes such suggestions as Initiation should not be ethically/morally claimed or celebrated. The mixtape follows The Weeknd’s lifestyle after he’s gained all this success, he’s still the same person but now he’s gotten everything he wanted. Some tracks such as The Fall continue to emphasize his journey into stardom and his acceptance of fame being temporary. With the added Till Dawn (Here Comes The Sun), The Weeknd acknowledges the changes in his life, realizing that the old lifestyle is no longer there for him or his past lovers. Echoes of Silence is known as an underrated gem of The Weeknd’s discography, it’s well received by fans and critically acclaimed but often brushed under the rug in discussion of his work. A lot of fans and casual listeners play the mixtapes through Trilogy rather than their respective albums. This often leads to people not playing EoS either at all or only the first few tracks, this is predominantly due to the nature of the compilation being nearly three hours long. Fun fact— D.D. is a cover of Michael Jackson’s iconic Dirty Diana. Fans have named the woman in Echoes of Silence Diana because of this track. Various theories argue that the mixtape itself is based on the Dirty Diana itself with exaggerations of the truth, or whether or not it’s a story The Weeknd crafted based on the song.
Trilogy is a compilation of The Weeknd’s mixtapes, House of Balloons, Thursday, and Echoes of Silence. These three mixtapes were released 3-4 months apart from one another for free digital download in 2011, they gained quite a lot of attention from various industry executives. Prior to the release of Trilogy, The Weeknd featured on Drake’s Take Care with Crew Love. The song was Abel’s first exposure to a Rap crowd/Rap fans, more people began listening to his music after the release of Take Care. The Weeknd then featured on Wiz Khalifa’s Remember You, which served as the second single off Wiz Khalifa’s O.N.I.F.C. Following those two releases, The Weeknd released Wicked Games as the first single off Trilogy. Trilogy was formed after The Weeknd came under Republic Records’ management. The compilation album reached a debut/peak position of 4 on the Billboard 200 while reaching number one on the US Top R&B/Hip-Hop Albums chart. It’s a well received album with the highlight said to be House of Balloons, which arguably went on to influence various sorts of R&B music of the 2010s. Videos for Trilogy
I went from starin' at the same four walls for 21 years. To seein' the whole world in just 12 months. (Kiss Land)
Kiss Land is based on The Weeknd’s tour life. Visiting unfamiliar places gave Abel horror movie vibes. A guy who used to own the city (Toronto) he lived in is now a small fish in the ocean of the entire world. The Weeknd’s first studio album was a great introduction into the sound he would soon get well acquainted with. While continuing the R&B sound with the essence of Dark Wave, the album explores emptiness and regret throughout the lyrics—or what pop fans could categorize as dark pop—. The Japanese aesthetic used for various videos and the single covers/booklet reflects the themes of feeling overwhelmed by such a loud world that there’s no point in being if you don’t belong. The album explores the real-world and the women in it as well as regrets regarding past actions, namely letting go of women who could’ve been the one in Adaptation. The Weeknd attempts to find that satisfaction in other women and past lovers, but accidentally falls for a sex worker in Belong To The World. With Wanderlust he accepts and expresses that love in the modern world isn’t entirely possible. While continuing to tour the world he enjoys these new experiences with XO (Live For feat. Drake), as well as the new women in his life (Kiss Land). And when he’s back home, he accepts the loss of the relationship he cherished. Kiss Land debuted and peaked at number two on the Billboard 200. It was fairly acclaimed but gained a massive cult following. There were four videos for made for the album, the title track, Belong To the World, Live For (feat. Drake), and Pretty. Those four songs received interesting visuals that kept up with their respective themes while Belong To the World/Kiss Land got visuals that matched the aesthetic of the album. To this day fans ask Abel for a part two to the horror-movie-inspired album after he said it’s the only album he would have a sequel for. Videos for Kiss Land Fun Fact— The video for Kiss Land on YouTube is an extremely edited version of the actual video shot for the song. The directors cut further explores the erotic-horror themes if the album.
Driving by the streets we used to walk through like a triumph. (King of the Fall)
These next few song were released between the Kiss Land and Beauty Behind the Madness era. Some fans would classify them as part of the Beauty Behind the Madness era—I’d say the same tbh—but they stand apart on the basis of success and acclaim. It’s a transition between The Weeknd being an underrated R&B musician to being a mainstream artist with massive recognition and appreciation. The first of these four songs is King of the Fall. A fan favourite and a standout in The Weeknd’s discography. This is one of The Weeknd’s few Rap tracks, it gained a lot of attention within the Rap sphere. It was the way in which XO would announce that they’ve made it, little did they know that this was just the start. Prior to the release of Beauty Behind the Madness (BBTM), The Weeknd gained mainstream attention. The Weeknd’s exposure to mainstream music was uphill, it wasn’t overnight. The first taste of BBTM came from Often, a song that reflected the themes of sex that Abel was known for. The track was released more than a year before BBTM’s release and had made it onto the trackless unlike King of the Fall. Slowly but surely The Weeknd gained exposure, his main sources of exposure were through a collaboration and a soundtrack. Most pop fans heard about The Weeknd through his hit collaboration with Ariana Grande, Love Me Harder. The collab was made through Republic when The Weeknd said he wanted more than what he had gotten through Kiss Land. Ariana and Abel had formed a real bond cough The Hills cough, their bond assisted the song in becoming a memorable hit for both artists. Love Me Harder was a top ten hit on the Billboard Hot 100. Later that year, The Weeknd was featured on the Fifty Shades of Grey soundtrack with Earned It, as well as Where You Belong. Earned It became a massive hit peaking at 3 on the Billboard Hot 100 and receiving an Oscar nomination for The Weeknd; a massive milestone for XO. Earned It kept up with Abel’s signature lyrics but the production differed heavily from the sort of R&B he was known for. Videos from that era
I'm that ***** with the hair singin' 'bout poppin' pills, fuckin' bitches, livin' life so trill. (Tell Your Friends)
Following the success of Love Me Harder and Earned It, the Beauty Behind the Madness era began with The Hills. This was The Weeknd’s first number one on the Billboard Hot 100. Along with the video, The Hills became an addictive classic. The production and lyrics mirror a mature version of the sound that was originally found on Trilogy. It was truly in keeping with The Weeknd’s character, the only difference was his haircut. Next came Can’t Feel My Face, a Max Martin production that differed greatly from anything The Weeknd put out in the past. In past songs, Abel had expressed his fear of losing his following if he went mainstream simultaneously asking his fans if they’d stay. He repeats that sentiment in the Can’t Feel My Face video. The sound has changed, the lyrics stay the same but now he’s a pop-star. The song became a hit as it reached number one on the Billboard Hot 100. With this massive bop previous fans still stayed, The Weeknd becoming a pop singer didn’t at all alter his image or sound; he mastered it. In The Night and Acquainted were released as singles on the same day, the were the only singles to come after the release of Beauty Behind The Madness. The former received a music video treatment that followed the theme of the song itself while also starring Abel’s girlfriend at the time, Bella Hadid. Acquainted was robbed of a video even though Abel had shown off the fact that a video was in development; the song kept in the tone of The Weeknd’s work prior to BBTM. Beauty Behind the Madness captures a Hollywood-based reality that The Weeknd came to understand: the dark aspects of your life will continue to follow you wherever you are. Real Life, Losers (feat. Labrinth), Tell Your Friends, Dark Times (feat. Ed Sheeran), and Prisoner (feat. Lana Del Rey) all capture a nihilistic view of a dream achieved. Most of the videos of Beauty Behind The Madness have a mysterious white man. He’s featured in The Hills, Can’t Feel My Face, and Tell Your Friends. That man represents the devil. Throughout his journey in those videos, (The Hills) Abel runs into the devil after his car crash, (Can’t Feel My Face) he’s at the club then lights him on fire. The significance behind the fire could be selling his soul to the devil, BBTM is about Hollywood and a popular Hollywood myth is that celebrities sell their souls to the devil in exchange for fame. So in the Can’t Feel My Face video, Abel changes his sound to Pop (from R&B) thus leaving his signature sound in order to become famous, everyone starts enjoying his music once he’s sold his soul. Then we see The Weeknd burying himself in Tell Your Friends, perhaps leaving the old Abel behind after the deal with the devil. However, instead of thanking the devil, Abel takes his revenge and shoots him. But wait, there’s more! The album trailer for BBTM features the devil burning a billboard with The Weeknd’s face on it, revealing Beauty Behind The Madness. HOWEVER, the final cut for the video features the devil being arrested while The Weeknd watches. This is a more realistic form of karma that the devil gets. Videos for BBTM
If I could, I'd trade it all, trade it for a halo. And she said that she'll pray for me, I said, "It's too late for me.” (Ordinary Life)
After the massive success of Beauty Behind the Madness, there was a lot of hype around what The Weeknd would do next; evidently he decided to explore Pop. The fandom he had gained wasn’t entirely based in the Pop sphere, his fans consisted of general Rap fans, but Starboy attracted the Pop audience. Initially, most of his older fans couldn’t get behind Starboy, it differed greatly from the previous sound. It was crazy to think that the guy who made Trilogy managed to make such a Pop-centric album. But this was Abel expressing his versatility. Since this is where most pop fans found out about Abel’s work and became fans I won’t talk too much about the singles, rather more about the album itself. His work with Daft Punk cemented this album in an efficient mix between Pop and R&B, where Beauty Behind the Madness was more R&B with Pop, Starboy was considered Pop with R&B. Beyond the genres, Starboy explores two evident themes. One being his life with fame and recognition. The next being his love life in Hollywood, this aspect of the album came from his relationship with Bella Hadid which ended after the release of the album. The cross became the symbol for that era and appeared in the album’s photoshoot as well as the videos. There was never any conclusive word on the use of the cross but there are various theories about it, something to note is that Abel was raised Christian, it could perhaps be a reflection of his past. The cross he uses to destroy his accolades (Starboy video) is assisting him rather than something that’s holding him back. Abel’s upbringing was rough but now he’s celebrating it rather than feeling bad for himself. The cross continues to come up in the Party Monster video, this time it’s in the party house he’s making his way through. Then it shows up in the video for Reminder, this time in the form of his merch, the people wearing it are perhaps representative of his fans. Then we see it in the False Alarm video, both Abel and the girl are wearing it; the notable thing being that Abel holds his cross up before dying. Then in the brilliant video for Secrets, after giving up on the girl he’s with he leaves the building to find a giant cross. And finally in the I Feel It Coming video, The Weeknd sports a shiny cross necklace, and Daft Punk find it years and years after Abel froze. The videos tell us that the cross is an evident piece of his story. This could mean that his past will always be with him, no matter what sort of fame he’s experiencing he’ll always be who he once was. Also, I’m gonna take this moment to once again the genius that is the Secrets (both the song and the video). Yes it’s my favourite song/video off of Starboy but it’s so underrated. Videos for Starboy, Secrets video bottom right Fun Fact— Most demos of the tracks on Starboy weren’t as pop as they became, they started off R&B but became pop after production.
They said our love is just a game, I don't care what they say. But I'ma drink the pain away, I'll be back to my old ways. (Privilege)
Oof (but in a good way, this whole thing is a bop). For this one I’m gonna talk extensively about The Weeknd’s relationships, which personally feels really invasive but it’s but it’s essential when talking about these sad boy anthems. Beyond that I’d just like to state that though they are part of the narrative both Bella Hadid and Selena Gomez deserve respect/privacy. So when it comes to Pop music fans I think it’s safe to say that we all know a lot about this one. My Dear Melancholy (MDM) came after the very public relationship of The Weeknd and Selena Gomez. However it’s not just about Selena, some songs reflect his relationship with Bella Hadid (whom he got back with a month after MDM’s release). My Dear Melancholy consists with The Weeknd’s exploration/mastery of merging Pop and R&B together. The EP was praised by fans for its lyrics and production, many went on to theorize that it was his most personal project since House of Balloons. The EP was the shortest album to reach number one on the Billboard 200. My Dear Melancholy and fan conspiracies; name a better duo. The first theory being that the EP is entirely about Selena Gomez which wasn’t too much of a mystery since the lyric “I almost cut a piece of myself for your life” exists. Not only did MDM come after Abel’s relationship with Selena Gomez but also after his relationship with Bella Hadid. As far as fans were aware those two relationships were the most important relationships Abel had ever been in. In theory, the songs about Bella and Selena can be categorized. Call Out My Name, Try Me, and Privilege are likely about Selena. Wasted Times, and Hurt You are likely about Bella. Leaving I Was Never There to act as an introspective look into The Weeknd’s life, basically making him hop back on his vices for comfort. Another popular theory was that My Dear Melancholy was the first of another trilogy. This rumour was widely believed due to the comma at the end of the title on the album cover. But the fans soon gained a real reason to believe this theory, since the CEO of XO (the record label), Sal had liked an Instagram post that featured the cover and alleged date. Since Trilogy is a fan favourite this conspiracy spread like wild fire, so much so that fake titles and covers were made. The name of this trilogy would be: (1)My Dear Melancholy, (2)We’re Alone Together, (3)Abel. Only one song served as a single for the EP. Call Out My Name was released nearly two months prior to the actual release of the album, it debuted/peaked at number four on the Billboard Hot 100. The mysterious video captures The Weeknd in various atmospheric places that reflect the tone of the EP, a haunting yet unexplained reality that the listener is to reflect on. From the cover, to the music, to the video, to lyrics, My Dear Melancholy is an introspective reflection of heartbreak. Call out my name video
After Hours comes after success but references two lows in The Weeknd’s life. The album welcomes darkness and leads the listener towards a dead-end. The Weeknd’s past two albums (Beauty Behind The Madness and Starboy) ended on hopeful notes, they left the listener with a sense of hope but all hope his lost with After Hours. Fans compare After Hours to House of Balloons—a rare occurrence considering House of Balloons’ acclaim—arguing that both albums are on the same level. Debate continues on whether or not both albums are on the same caliber. The belief that After Hours stems from reality does a lot to help its side of the argument. The era began with Mercedes-Benz commercial that featured Blinding Lights, that was our first taste of the everlasting bop. Heartless was premiered on an episode of Memento Mori hours before its release on the 27 of November (2019), Blinding Lights was released two days later. Both videos were as brain melting as promised and the served as the tip of the iceberg. After Hours was released nine days after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic, there was a massive risk in releasing an album that would not have a lot of promotion after it’s release (other than magazine coverage). There was no telling whether or not people would pay attention to the album during the height of the fear surrounding the pandemic, but it was a massive success. After Hours debuted at number one on the Billboard 200, with singles Heartless and Blinding Lights topping the Billboard Hot 100. The album is layered with haunting productions that remains predominantly R&B but dives deep into Pop with some of the tracks. Max Martin produced the massive hit Blinding Lights as well as In Your Eyes, Save Your Tears, Hardest to Love, and Scared to Live which samples Elton John’s Your Song. Other notable producers include Metro Boomin who worked on the hit Heartless as well as Escape from LA, Faith, and Until I Bleed Out. With Kevin Parker on the interlude Repeat After Me. Beyond the production are the narrative driven lyrics. In theory the album references two significant events in Abel’s life, his second breakup with Bella Hadid and his arrest in Las Vegas. The latter was due to his misbehaviour; in January 2015 he punched a cop in Vegas, lmao. Which means that After Hours is a recollection of The Weeknd’s first few years in LA. He merges the concept of his breakup with the idea of being an upcoming star, feeling free in the city of lights all while diving deep into the meaninglessness of those lights. While After Hours starts with loneliness and a second chance it leads up to Abel returning to his vices of lust. In Alone Again his loneliness caught up to him and he’s asking for a second chance. He acknowledges his mistakes and situation in Too Late/Hardest to Love, in Scared to Live his ex then returns to him for a second time. He remembers his past ways in Snowchild and the way in which it lead to better days, but where do you go after such highs? In Escape From LA he faces the superficial reality of Hollywood, glad that he got that he got back with his ex, while continuing to question if it’s worth it. But he fucks up the second chance when she pulls up to the studio. Who is she? Much like the other mysteries surrounding The Weeknd’s music, we may never know. Is it all more of The Weeknd’s songwriting ability or is it driven by reality? Fans found a merge between the two to be more accurate, After Hours is about heartbreak and a return to the vices that held The Weeknd back. Heartless is when The Weeknd is once again back to his ways, he may have been in a serious relationship but after throwing that away he spirals back to the way he once was. It’s sad but it’s one hell of a song. Speaking of brilliant songs, Faith is when Abel admits that he’s back on his vices, he states that he needs his ex back with him till the end; he’s back to self-loathing. So when he says he’s blinded by the lights, there’s two meanings to it. The Faith outro tells us that he’s in a car with flashing lights, a cop car (as confirmed by Abel) to be exact. Then Blinding Lights tells us that while he’s watching the bright lights of Vegas pass him by he calls out for the girl that he regrets losing. That is the peak of the After Hours narrative. He’s behaving badly over the loss of the girl he loved and is now at the worst position trying to find her and gain her trust for a third time. Following Blinding Lights is In Your Eyes, this is where The Weeknd vows not to judge her; he can see right through her but will never do anything to make her upset. Does this mean their back together? Not exactly. Save Your Tears details a sort of moving-on that The Weeknd isn’t ready for but tries to help her move on, blind to his own inability to move on. Does it work? Not really. Repeat After Me (Interlude) shows that he’s still trying to convince himself that he’s unfazed by the loss of a meaningful relationship. Then you hear a true masterpiece. The title track is a spiral into true regret and an apology for his actions, he admits that his ex girlfriend is the only reason he lives. In a dark lonely city she’s the only one keeping him sane. But his pleas fail, Until I Bleed Out is when The Weeknd no longer wants her in his life so much so that he wants to erase his memory of anything related to her. The bonus tracks then echo the final sentiment. It’s one sad ass album, ain’t it. But here’s where the Red Suit Character comes in. Shoutout to the makeup department The album isn’t the only narrative to follow with After Hours. The videos for the album follow their own sort of narrative. The story follows an unnamed guy that goes by “red suit character” according to The Weeknd. There’s a lot of confusion and endless theories surrounding this character’s story, after The Weeknd confirmed that it’s about a decent into Hollywood culture it makes more sense… kind of. I’m gonna discuss the storyline without talking about the movies that have influenced it, this way the focus remains on the character. The order of these videos is Heartless / Blinding Lights / Blinding Lights (Live on Kimmel)* / After Hours short film / In Your Eyes / Until I Bleed Out / Snowchild / Too Late / Live at AMAs* / Save Your Tears *Though all live performances could count as part of the narrative, these one relate directly with the videos that follow. He’s is first seen in Vegas with Metro Boomin (Heartless), intoxicated on various substances. He dives deeper into his high until he licks a frog, after that he faces the true effects of this high. He’s frightened by the result and runs far away from Vegas. (Blinding Lights) He’s then found in LA, where he’s dancing in the street, hypnotized by the singer, beat up by guards, and races past all those bright lights in his Benz. Ultimately realizing the shallowness of the Los Angeles fantasy. (Blinding Lights Live on Kimmel) We then find him performing Blinding Lights live, while he attempts to find more reason in within the madness city; he couldn’t find it on the streets so he goes to the stage. (After Hours short film) Even then there’s no meaning to anything in the city, he mindlessly wanders into the depth of the subway where he’s dragged by the reality of it all and ends up possessed. (In Your Eyes) After being possessed he chases the woman whose boyfriend he just murdered, she runs into a club falls deeper into the After Hours fantasy, in a successful attempt to defend herself she beheads the red suit character and dances all over LA with his head, iconic behaviour. (Until I Bleed Out) Then in an ethereal dreamscape, red suit character finds himself in a House of Balloons. He’s trying to escape, but the people there keep pulling him in; he’s getting higher while observing Glass Table Girls. He spirals into the antarctic, the other side of the world. From Heatless to this point in his story, his vices lead him back to the lowest point in Abel’s life. Is it Hell, Heaven or Las Vegas? (Snowchild) He relives his career up until the point where his story began. Considering he’s dead, his life basically flashed before his eyes. (Too Late) LA girls find the red suit character’s head and live their best life. They wanna have sex with him so they find the best boy parts by calling up a stripper who could be the body. The stitch the head up with the body and do what they want. But now he’s brought back to life. (Live at AMAs) He’s had work done… He went in to get his nose fixed and the doctor said “you sure that’s all you want?” The red suit character’s face is healing while he tries to celebrate his life on top of a bridge. (Save Your Tears) Surrounded by a masked cult he debut’s his new face. Do they like it? Are they impressed? Not instantly, their masks translate no expression so how’s he to know? Is any of this worth it? Nope red suit character continues to die inside. He finds a maskless girl in the crowd, she’s lively unlike the rest; but even then, nothing on the inside nothing on the outside. He wants death again, somehow a second chance with this city is still pointless. He tries to kill himself via the girl and himself but it’s all a facade; theatrics. His story continues but that’s all we know so far. The videos make a lot of film references. This post by explain these references very well, as well as past album references here (part one) and here (part two). After Hours is inspired by a lot of movies, since Abel is in fact a cinephile. The main movies that inspired the aesthetic and storytelling are believed to be Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (1998), Casino (1995), Joker (2019), Uncut Gems (2020), and After Hours (1985). The album tells two sad narratives but remains one of The Weeknd’s best works yet. He’s expanded his videography and enhanced the interest of people who casually enjoy his music and of course his fans. But the era isn’t over, by the time this is posted his Super Bowl Halftime show is yet to happen. And it’ll continue the red suit character’s story. Videos for After Hours (so far) Fun Fact—The Heartless video features a reference to Thursday. When he’s trying to run from Vegas, a sign behind him flashes “Heartless / Heaven or Las Vegas.” This could be a reference to Abel running from his past, after all Heartless is about him returning to his vices.
END.
Thank you for reading this, again, I didn’t realize it would end up being this long. But I hope this this served as a nice refresher for any fans who wanted to revisit Abel’s work before the Super Bowl. And I really hope that anyone interested in getting into his music finds this helpful. Once again, the theories/interpretations mentioned aren’t conclusive, they’re widely based on fan discussion/mutual interpretation. Due to the character limit I couldn’t add too links to the albums, so here are some artist links. Apple Music | Spotify | YouTube | The Weeknd’s Shop | Tidal | Genius
Preface: Please believe me when I say I really wanted to take this month off and enjoy the snow in Tahoe. But as I was driving, something caught my eye... Make no mistake. This stock is not going to be nearly as volatile or profitable as GME. In fact, this might be so boring that most of you will ignore me yet again. And that’s exactly why I like it. I’ll do my best to make this engaging, but the fact is, this is going to be a slow grind. Both this DD and the stock. Also, as a bonus, Reddit is currently public enemy #1 in the eyes of the media. Why don’t we do a quick heel-turn and join their side? Are they gonna hate us for buying boring value stocks? They won’t know what hit them. That will be a fun show to watch. Anyway… let’s take a look under the hood. As always, not financial advice. Just education. NOTHING IS A RECOMMENDATION. We are just sharing knowledge here. Ok SEC? Intro: Ford (NYSE: $F -- NOT NASDAQ:$FORD), is another depressed deep value multiple expansion arbitrage play. No short squeeze this time. The GME asymmetry may not be seen again for 10 years. It might seem boring and unsexy on the surface, but Ford is a fantastic company in the midst of one of the best turnarounds in American history. And with a little help from our friend Mr. Options (or as Buffett called, Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction) we can turn a boring old Ford into a lightning fast Ferrari using the quadruple income option wheel strategy. Don’t try this at home. If you don’t know what CSPs, CCs, or vega are, stick to shares. Those should work just fine. Let’s break this down into 5 parts: electrification story and leadership, multiples expansion, technical analysis, options, and the trade. By the way, in 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, which added up to $40 billion. Just something to think about.
The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round...
Electrification story and leadership: Let’s jump into history for a second. Ford had a meteoric rise from 1997 - 1999 from $15 to around $32 at the peak. This was due to $F reporting massive earnings increases each quarter:
They were just feasting and feasting. Jim Farley looks like the best person alive to revitalize Ford, capable of tripling the stock in 2-3 years. Look at the last two quarters:
Q3-2020 - Adjusted EPS: 65 cents vs 19 cents expected, Automotive revenue: $34.71 billion vs $33.51 billion expected (due to pent up demand)
Q2-2020 - Adjusted EPS: A loss of 35 cents per share versus a loss of $1.17 per share expected, Automotive revenue: $16.6 billion versus $15.95 billion expected.
Here are excerpts from the Q3 earnings and some other notable highlights:
Farley: Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, No. 1, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses. And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale. So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 and the Transit, the two most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them.
Quick sidebar here from my buddy M: "Whereas traditional manufact / consumer / industrials are valued on an EBITDA multiple, SAAS has historically been valued on a revenue multiple, which translates to flat out higher valuations. EVs themselves are not necessarily a higher margin product that justifies a higher multiple (at least not that I've seen), but tech services / subscriptions are the real money makers in this game. Hint Hint companies like Apple throwing everything they have at trying to integrate services and subscriptions over the last 5 years" This further justifies the expansion multiples we expect will catch up to leading EV automakers (see below).
We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers. The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the two largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive. Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford. When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision two years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter. Together, these factors, plus the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year. As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow. The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.
Check out this credit downgrade weeks before Ford paid off their revolving credit facility. Smells like GME? Alright. What about Q4-2020 and beyond? Ford is expected to post a loss. TA is signaling a beat (see the TA section). Ford is spending this money in order further restructure and deliver on the following items in their pipeline: Bronco:
Within the first month of open reservations, the Bronco had received an estimated 230,000 reservations. 230,000 reservations is an incredibly impressive figure, especially when put into the context of Ford’s total vehicle sales. 230,000 sales would represent 4% of Ford’s total sales.
Some other nice features: Fold down the shifter, lay seats down completely flat, speakers in headrest, tailgate worksurface (pen/pencil holders, rulers) C clamp, 120V outlet, bottle opener, light), sensing running board, tailgate step and railing, and more. Watch the video.
Ford Raptor launch (just happened today, customers are excited. Look at the comments on YouTube and IG) Further potential tailwinds:
The Postal Service told Trucks.com that it expects to reach a contract with one or more of the teams bidding for the business in the federal government’s second fiscal quarter of 2021. That works out to the first quarter of next year.
There is a historical inverse relationship between gas prices and car sizing. Tell me if I'm reaching here. But as America continues to head towards electrification and energy independence under Biden, larger gas cars will be more in demand. Furthermore, the aftershock of COVID will continue to propagate the dedensification of cities. Less commuter vehicles, and more travel vehicles. And look who is conveniently positioned to take advantage of all of this?
Dr. Anning Chen is also a killer CEO of Ford China. This is largely intangibles (which Wall Street cannot model), but watch his interviews here and here.
Dr. Chen used the COVID shutdown to improve the operational efficiency of the company. It has not shown on the bottom line thus far, but it will later.
Regarding the above leadership and BOD members, experienced executives are a better fit for running the day-to-day than any other. Add a sprinkle of savvy techfin folk and you have a recipe for a elite transition.
English please? Ford is a strong company. Farley is delivering on his promises and can lead the company towards an operationally efficient turnaround towards electrification. Combine this with a loyal customer base rivaled only by AAPL, and you get another special opportunity. This is the turning point. Multiples Expansion: Now here lies the crux of the thesis. Amidst all the EV hype, Ford is being unfairly ignored at an extremely depressed multiple compared to the other companies in the EV space. Here are some comparisons (numbers may be slightly outdated, pulled earlier this week, more relative comparison than absolute): $Ticker - Market Cap - TTM Revenue MM - TTM EBITDA MM - Revenue Multiple - Ebitda Multiple TSLA - $810B - $28B - $4B - 29X - 202X NIO - $92B - $12B - ($7B) - 7.6X - (NaN) GM - $78B - $116B - $18B - 0.7X - 4.3X F - $44B - $131B - $10B - 0.3X - 4.4X That’s an eyesore. Let’s focus on just TSLA and Ford, because why not. Assuming Ford can quickly turn towards electrification (from the evidence above), these two companies are fair comparisons. No Tesla is not a software/energy company, look at their automotive % of revenue. Stop it. It has only recently dropped to 80% due to the expansion of their leasing division. Energy is still a tiny part of TSLA. Revenue Multiple: TSLA = 29X F = 0.3X EBITDA Multiple: TSLA = 202X F = 4.4X Yes those numbers are correct. Look at them for 60 seconds and tell me what you see. Quick quote from my buddy M:
Just zoom out and think. TSLA is for sure ahead of the rest on their tech and charging infra right now. But in terms of just overall bottom line infrastructure and manufacturing capability; once the GMs, Fs, and VWs of the world can get the ball rolling, they are way ahead in that aspect. Much more experience in production and retail / distribution channels, as well as logistics sourcing. Plenty of battery makers, and self driving tech makers out there too right now. Small to mid scale M&A will probably be the name of the game if I had to guess.
This is why Burry is short $TSLA, but two scenarios can unfold: either the high-flying stocks drop, or Ford rises. I believe we will land somewhere in the middle, with Ford rising as we begin to enter the optimism phase in the final third of our bull market. Shorting is a dangerous game anyway... So I’ve been hearing on the news... TA, Options: Exhibit A from our resident chart whisperer J (who will remain unnamed because you monkeys keep bothering him). Larger view. As you can see, the trendline has broken out. Exhibit B from our resident quant T (also to rename unnamed):
Starting on 1/4 you'll find right tail distributions into any liquidation which represent large buying. Which has led up to a recent run-up and eventually left tail distributions which represent short coverings which lead into the gaps and thinner distributions where there aren't any major bids. Even with the pullback on 1/22 we see more right tail distribution after the profit taking from the recent run-up, which means someone is buying up the inventory. This is unusual for F, where F trades within tight ranges. On 2/1 you can see a bimodal distribution which means a new player has stepped in, which we assume has additional knowledge apart from the larger players that were already in the market. The recent range between 10.70 and 11.20 indicates that the market has accepted this price range as fair value. Without additional research at first glance we can see that a large player (or players) is buying up a significant amount of inventory. On 1/4 we find that the volume increased to 77,559,128 from the previous trading of 34,462,454 (125% increase) and 33,127,776 the day before that. Volume has been higher since. On our first major left tail distribution (which represents short covering) since the buying on 1/4 the volume was at 113,707,973.
Exhibit C 250k shares of F 10.92; 100k F 11.04; 3.53m F 9.78; 708k F 9.78; 500k F 9.64; 377k F 9.50; 338k F 9.50; 201k F 9.75; 192k F 9.80; 150k F 9.77 These are blocks of shares bought in the past 7 days Top OI changes: +19610 F 02/05/21 11 C 43821 38% 13% 48% +12904 F 02/05/21 12 C 31929 38% 11% 52% Top OI positions: 170902 F 02/19/21 10 C +807 26% 49% 25% 112480 F 02/19/21 12 C +3207 29% 29% 41% The percentages are bid mid ask. Someone is bullish on Ford. For an earnings play, daily RSI is oversold looking towards an uptick. Options gamma is interesting to note as well. Open interest on 2/5 $13 and $15Cs are also notable. Could be covered calls? Could be someone knows something? Could be Jeff reading too much into the tea leaves. Not financial advice. Just showing you what I see. The Trade: The simplest way is just to purchase shares and collect dividends as Ford may reinstate them sometime in 2021. Possibly leaps if you feel adventurous. For the option junkies like myself, and as a tribute to the greatest company in American history, I will use the wheel(s). The GME trade was a very special and momentous occasion. Now that we have a bankroll, we’ll just quietly play theta gang as we enjoy our lives and spend time with our families and loved ones. Here’s a good summary. This is not for amateurs. I mean, none of this is financial advice anyway, just educational. But in a nutshell, I will: 1) Buy shares, 2) Sell CSPs 30-45 days out with 0.3 delta, 3) sell CCs with 0.3 delta (will reconsider this if Ford goes vertical) 4) Collect dividends. The Wheel doesn’t work on everything. Here are the qualifications from the above post, let me know if this sounds familiar:
Profitable company that has solid cash flow
Bullish, or Very Bullish, analyst ratings
Priced around $10 to $50 so that I can afford to take the assignment if needed and I stay away from sub-$10 stocks as a rule
A stable chart without wild gyrations (especially those caused by CEO tweets!)
A nice dividend is always a good thing, both that you may collect it if assigned the stock but also that dividend stocks tend to more stable and predictable.
Hmm... Conclusion: Ford is a massive, complex, multinational corporation so I’ve likely missed very many things, but I wanted to get this out before ER so I can flex again. (No market manipulation here lol. My buddy's multi-million dollar block buys didn't move the needle one iota.) There are many things I haven’t covered, and simply don’t know yet. As more facts begin to unfold, and as I spend more time with the stock, I’ll share the information here. Also, every time I post about an equity, it seems to go down. Lol... (GME). With all this in mind, this is still a very risky bet. Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen thus far. Ford looks like a fantastically healthy company in the midst of a turnaround towards electrification with a phenomenally depressed multiple according to the market’s appetite. It deserves a multiple trending towards TSLA’s, not a dying auto manufacturer. Jim Farley has shown early to be a great CEO and I think he can continue the transformation. We’ve begun to enter a phase of exuberance, so I’ll choose to long Ford instead of short TSLA. As a bonus, we have the opportunity to join forces with the boomers and talking heads and bet on one of their favorite companies. Time for America to be on the same side again. We’ve been divided for too long. I know my GME posts were lucky. I’ll stake my reputation on another bet. One call sure is lucky. What about two? In any case, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Glad to be a part of this journey with you all. Note: I will not discuss GME in the comments, which all depends on Ryan Cohen. There is nothing further to add until Q4 earnings. And finally, we’ve officially entered the last phase of our very long bull market. This is not necessarily a sell signal yet, as some of the greatest returns can come in this period and can last for a long time. I will do my best to look for the signal and sound the alarm. The world will be celebrating, and I will be bearish. Burry’s passive indexing bubble call in combination with Thiel’s government debt bubble call will lead us into a dark time of unprecedented proportions. Tail risk hedging won’t work as the declines will be slow at first, and then fast and violent and unrecoverable. Be careful. Listen to Ken Fisher. Thank you very much for your time. Positions: Bullish shares, LEAPS, on-going quadruple income wheel strategy as Ford reinstates the dividend. Timeframe 12-18 months. Watch out VIGILANTLY for macro risks. Bear market is on the horizon. Drop some Fs in the chat to pay respects. PT: $32 with a chance of $98 if we start to see exuberance in the broader market. -JA
Game Matchups Preview AFC Championship: Bills @ Chiefs
Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills’ roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 19th iteration of this analysis for the Bills’ upcoming AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME in Kansas City. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage). NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long then you are well aware that these playoff posts are significantly longer. The increased length is intended to provide more details on the Bills’ opponent, including basic breakdowns of their offensive and defensive philosophies. If this is your first time reading this post and/or you are a Chiefs’ fan, feedback is always welcome! Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Defense In 2020 the Buffalo Bills have gone from “Lovable Losers” to one of the most feared franchises in the NFL. A team which just last season was considered one built on a foundation of a fearsome defense and a mobile Quarterback has undergone a shift in perception rarely seen in the NFL. Yes, that defense is still scary (More on that later) and yes, the man under Center can still run (Also more on that later) but the evolution of two players in particular have altered the way that opposing teams, and their fans, view the Buffalo Bills. The first some may consider the Bills’ 2020 1st round pick and since arriving in Buffalo has done nothing less than stake his claim as one of, if not the, best WRs in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. Diggs has beaten anyone and everyone in front of him collecting 6+ catches in 17 out of his 18 games totaling 141 catches for 1770 yards and 10 TDs. These gaudy statistics are just the tangible portion of what Diggs has brought to the Bills while the intangible is derived from his mere presence, which has ignited a swagger not seen in Buffalo since, well, ever. Throwing him the ball is a man that has been analyzed and critiqued ad nauseum, the newest member of the Fraternity of Franchise QBs, Joshua Patrick Allen. At 5,564 yards and 50 TDs Allen has entrenched himself in the top tier of QBs, a set of players that defensive coordinators look to contain as opposed to stopping entirely and though few achieve this level of NFL success note that doing so does not preclude them from the occasional rough stretch. And that is exactly what happened to Josh Allen during the 4-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8. In that span Allen, who would finish the regular season with a Passer Rating (PR) of 107.2, had a PR of just 79.2. This included a game against the Bills’ AFC Championship Game opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, where Allen had his worst Completion % of the season (51.9%) and his second lowest PR (73.4). Many have pondered what the root cause(s) of these struggles were for a QB who now will likely finish Top-3 in MVP voting, and two causes tend to be consistently repeated. The first of these, the weather, can easily be debunked. Against the Chiefs Josh Allen’s adjusted completion % (Less Drops) was 56.0% while Patrick Mahomes who, played in the same weather, had an adjusted completion % of 91.3%. It’s hard to fathom that the weather was such a detriment to only one QB that it resulted in him being 35.3% less “accurate” than the other. The second is a bit harder to debunk and is actually backed by some “expert” testimony. Just 15 days earlier in a game against Las Vegas, Allen would be hit awkwardly while attempting to extend a play and suffer an injury to his non-dominant (left) shoulder resulting in what many believe to have been a grade 1 AC Joint sprain. An injury which takes between 4-6 weeks to heal fits the timeline of Allen’s 4 weeks of below average QB play and is even propped up by 3-time Pro Bowl QB Matt Hasselback agreeing that such an injury makes it more difficult for a Quarterback to deliver a pass to his target accurately. Out of these two I find the injury much more plausible but after going back and watching the Chiefs @ Bills’ game I find it hard to believe either of these were the primary reason for the Chiefs domination of the Bills’ passing attack. With that in mind the best explanation, and what I believe to be the most likely, is that Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo simply had a brilliant game plan which the Chiefs executed perfectly ultimately slowing down the air attack of the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs plan was simple yet concise, blitz from all different angles while disguising coverage pre-snap. They would finish the game with 14 blitzes sending a total of 26 blitzers, 12 from LBs (Hitchens, Wilson, & Niemann), 3 from CBs (Fenton & Breeland), and 11 from Safeties (Mathieu & Sorensen). This constant shift in the level extra pass rushers were coming from often left the Bills’ OL scrambling to recover resulting in their QB being pressured on a season high 35.5% of dropbacks (His season average is 20.7%). Simultaneously the Chiefs were mixing Man and Zone coverage schemes which often included a deep spy that was keying off Josh Allen’s eyes. Allowing the Chiefs to accomplish this was a secondary stacked with “Jack-Of-All-Trades” CBs and one of the better safety trios, yes trios, in the NFL championed by a possible future HOF. Charvarius Ward, Bashaud Breeland, Rashad Fenton, and L’Jarius Sneed are all capable of covering the X, Y, or Z allowing the Chiefs to conceal their coverages and trade off assignments at will. Breeland the most notorious and proficient of the three works with hands on his assignment in order to control their movement and was flagged a total of 9 times this season, 3 of which came against the Bills. Behind them is a trio of Safeties that make the entire defense click; Daniel Sorensen, Tyrann Mathieu, and Juan Thornhill, who is primarily used in Nickel sets which the Chiefs run north of 60% of the time. Sorensen is as close as you can get to a modern-day John Lynch, a hard-hitting safety with ball skills that allow him to effectively play Center Field on deep passes. Mathieu is the afore mentioned HOF hopeful and can play anywhere from the LOS to a deep prevent position. One of the most feared defenders in all of football expect the Honey Badger to spy Josh Allen more than any other player on the Chiefs and make a few highlight reel plays at Arrowhead Sunday night. Ultimately this matchup comes down to two things, can the Bills OL recognize the blitz pre-snap and can the Bills’ receivers find holes in the defense. From the perspective of the OL they are vastly improved since their last matchup with the Chiefs with Ike Boettger replacing Brian Winters at LG and Jon Feliciano returning from injury to man the RG position. These two bring a physicality to the OL which was surely lacking prior to their arrival. At the receiver position there is a bit more concern with Gabe Davis a DNP and both Cole Beasley & Stefon Diggs limited as of Thursday night’s injury report. It is a near certainty that both Beasley and Diggs will see the field Sunday night, but the possible loss of Gabe Davis looms large. The good news for Bills’ fans is that this is the exact reason the Bills went out and got Kenny Stills so if Gabe Davis is truly a no go expect to see Stills for the first time in a Bills’ uniform. There are two more dark horse candidates for a big game through the air, WR Isaiah McKenzie and TE Dawson Knox. McKenzie has played just 12 snaps so far throughout the playoffs but is due for a push pass or two especially against a blitz heavy team like the Chiefs. As for Dawson Knox his size and athleticism may be too much for the Chiefs LBs to handle which would then require Daniel Sorensen to come down into coverage. This would keep Sorensen out of the box and free up more underneath routes for the Bills. As with every week it comes down to individual matchups and whoever wins theirs will win this one. P.S. Don’t forget about John “Smoke” Brown. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Defense While the Passing Game for the Bills has evolved into one of the best in the NFL the running game has regressed to the bottom tier of the league. This ineptitude has reached new depths with the Bills’ Running Backs combining for just 71 rushing yards (Josh Allen has 57) over the first two games of the playoffs. For context, all Non-Bills’ Playoff games have featured at least one player with 75+ rushing yards. Bills Mafia has been aware of these struggles since early in the season and exorcised their demons by lighting into OC Brian Daboll after he “excessively” ran the ball against the Colts. The following week, against the Ravens, Daboll flipped the script handing the ball off just 1 time in the first half and 9 times total to RBs who combined for a Y/A of just 3.2. It is abundantly clear to not just the Buffalo Bills but every other team in the NFL that this Bills’ team is a pass first team however, some semblance of balance will be needed if they are to reach the full potential necessary to chase down the Lombardi trophy. Dependent on the gameplan which the Chiefs employ, running the ball could be an important part of the Bills’ offense on Sunday night. If the Chiefs do force the issue the Bills will be contending with the 19th ranked team in Y/A that just gave up over 5.0 Y/A against the Browns in the Divisional round. Of course that’s a Browns’ team that has both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt who were running behind one of the best run blocking OLs (#6 Adjusted Line Yards) in the NFL however, the Browns success against the Chiefs does not necessitate similar results for the Bills’ Devin Singletary and T.J. Yeldon who are running behind an inferior run blocking OL (#15 Adjusted Line Yards). Making it even more unlikely that the Bills could find success with a similar style of play is that most of the Browns’ success came when running the ball between the tackles. On 19 RB carries the Browns had 7 that went for 5+ yards 5 of which came when attacking this area. This relied heavily on the Browns interior line controlling the opposing DTs allowing the runners to get to the second level. There is a further problem with this plan of attack though and he goes by the name of Chirs Jones. The massive 5-year vet drafted in the 2nd round out of Mississippi St. is a rare talent in the NFL, a game wrecker that can alter the outcome of any week. When talking about the best DTs in the NFL you will often hear names like Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, and Cameron Heyward but outside of Donald, there may be no one better at the position than Chris Jones. For his massive frame, 6’6” 310lb, Jones possesses incredible quickness that provides him with a tool bag of moves that range from outright bull rushes to tight swim moves. Jones is a pass rush expert that often finds his way into the lap of opposing QBs but his consistency in disrupting the run is what makes him one of the best all-around defenders in football. A disruptive bowling ball next to him comes in the form of NT Derrick Nnadi who I would doubt exceeds 50% of the defensive snaps this week with the Chiefs likely electing to go lighter in an effort to further disrupt the Bills’ passing attack. This means you should expect to see significantly more of the Chiefs primary 3-man DE rotation in Tershawn Wharton, Frank Clark, and Tanoh Kpassagnon. Like their comrades in the secondary each of these 3 players can play multiple positions provided by their quickness to set the edge and the size and strength to stuff the middle making them nightmare matchups for contending offensive linemen. This all leads to the consensus that whether it be Devin Singletary, T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, Devonta Freeman, or even Reggie Gilliam the Bills will struggle to move the ball on the ground consistently, but they do have one X-Factor. That man is their rumbling bumbling 6’5” 240lb buffalo of a man, quarterback Josh Allen. In the last game against Kansas City Allen was able to account for 42 rushing yards on 8 carries often finding a corner to run to and beating the Chiefs LBs to the spot. The Chiefs have 3 good ones in Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson, and Ben Niemann who are all talented football players with large frames that allow them to handle extra blockers but that comes with a limitation to speed and quickness over the middle. The Bills will need to occasionally find success on the ground if they want to win the Time of Possession battle and all signs point to any success in the matter only available via one avenue, the legs of #17. EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Passing Offense The Buffalo Bills play one of the most difficult defensive schemes to master in all of football, the Palms Defense. At a very high level this Zone scheme is built on the coverage units’ ability to communicate and trade off players as they get deeper into their routes. Its effectiveness begins with its pre-snap deceit which some Quarterbacks will find difficult to identify but culminates post-snap where it is nearly impossible to determine where the reads and tradeoffs will occur. It is the defensive equivalent of the Zone-Read offense and flips the advantage to favor the defense. This scheme has been utilized since Sean McDermott became the head coach of the Bills in 2017 and has resulted in them finishing no lower in Passer Rating (PR) against than 6th since that point in time. Even the 2020 Buffalo Bills would finish the season 5th overall with a PR against of 86.9 which early in the season seemed like an impossible feat. Up until the Chiefs’ game the Bills were being torched through the air with a PR against of 103.6. If that were to have continued for the entire 2020 campaign the Bills would have finished 29th in the NFL in this statistic. This reached its crescendo against the Chiefs where despite bailing out to stop the pass, and then getting gashed on the ground, the Bills still managed to give up a PR of 128.4. There was clearly something wrong with a passing defense that by all measures had regressed as much or more so than the Bills’ QB had progressed, so I sought out to determine what the issue was. After a quick re-watch of the Chiefs’ game I came to find that the Palms defense was breaking down repeatedly with no clearer example than Travis Kelce’s second touchdown reception. I won’t rehash the entire analysis (If interested read the beginning of Bills’ Passing Defensehere) but the tradeoffs necessitated by Palms were failing at nearly every turn. Something happened after the Chiefs game though, and the Bills began to find a rhythm. In fact, they found such a rhythm that through the remainder of the season they would hold opposing teams to a PR of just 72.6 and have continued that dominance in the playoffs allowing one of just 78.9. This Bills’ team that spent the early part of the 2020 season struggling to stop inferior opponents from moving the ball through the air and is now the best remaining team at stopping it which could come in handy with the remaining playoff QBs being Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and… Patrick Mahomes. For the sake of this post I’m ignoring the “Will He, Won’t He” on whether or not he will play because I am fairly confident “He Will”. So, what is left to be said about Patrick Mahomes? Over the first few seasons of his career he owns just about every record a QB can own as well as an MVP award, a Lombardi Trophy, and a Super Bowl MVP. My definition of a “Gunslinger” Mahomes is willing to attempt any throw on the football field and can make any of those throws. As much as, if not more so than, Josh Allen, Mahomes’ excels when he breaks the pocket and the play falls apart leaving him to ad-lib with a slew of weapons and a well-coached offense that is able to take advantage of recovering defenders. Always the best player on the field, when Mahomes is on there is almost no stopping him and frankly, when he is off it’s still nearly impossible. The recipe for beating him is simply stated, and difficult to execute, the 1 or 2 throws a game where he misses his target, must be converted into turnovers. This is in no way meant as a slight to Mahomes however, he has the perfect players around him that allow him to execute his game as he desires. On the one hand is Travis Kelce who may go down in history as the greatest TE to ever play the position and is, in my opinion, the best receiving threat to ever do it. In 2020 Kelce played just 15 games but broke the record for receiving yards by a TE with 1416 while raking in 105 catches and 11 TDs. The Bills attempt to limit him by alternating their LBs and Safeties onto him which results in the Bills spending more time in Big Nickel pushing players like Siran Neal onto the field more often. Next up is the man known as “Cheetah”, Tyreek Hill. Hill is one of the more disrespected on field talents in the NFL and statistically is right there with players like Stefon Diggs, Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Better yet, Hill fits Mahomes in the same way Diggs fits Allen except as more of a home run threat that is going to consistently test Micah Hyde’s prowess as one of the best prevent safeties in the NFL. Outside of Hill and Kelce there are a ton of other weapons for this passing game to utilize. The speedy Mecole Hardman, the “Real Deal” Demarcus Robinson, and the Bills’ previous #4 overall pick Sammy Watkins. Pick your poison against this team but regardless the Bills’ CBs and especially their Safeties will have their hands full Sunday night. EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 👏 Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Chiefs’ Rushing Offense The Bills’ rushing defense is coming off a game in which they may not have shut down the Ravens’ vaunted rushing attack, but they surely contained it. This was a Ravens’ team that led the NFL in Rushing Y/G at 191.2 and Y/A at 5.5 and managed just 150 yards at 4.7 Y/A against the Bills. How was Buffalo able to do this? Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier challenged the Ravens to beat them through the air by running 3 LB sets on 41% of snaps and bringing down one of Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde to stack the box with 7 or 8 players on nearly every play. This, often, left the Bills’ DBs matched up in a rare version of single coverage which the Bills won on a consistent basis. An eye-opening game for the Bills and one that they won because of scheme, a scheme they can’t afford to run against the Chiefs. The Chiefs are more than competent of moving the ball on the ground, when at full health. Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) burst onto the scene early in 2020 and was on pace to finish with just around 1000 rushing yards before suffering a substantial high-ankle sprain against the Saints on December 20th. Sidelined now for just over 1 month CEH is bordering on healthy enough to play with the average recovery time between 4-6 weeks. If CEH cannot suit up the likely replacement for him is not Le’Veon Bell (Who is now dealing with a knee injury) but instead 3rd year back Darrel Williams. In the Chiefs’ 1st playoff game against the Browns Williams would finish with 13 carries to Bells’ 2. Primarily a deep depth player Williams is getting more work now than he has at any other point in his professional career. Dynamic enough a player in his Senior season at LSU, with 1151 yards and 9 TDs on 168 touches, the Chiefs took a flyer on him picking him up as an undrafted rookie in 2018. A 1-cut back that finishes downhill Williams who is listed at 5’11” 224lb looks much smaller but plays like a bruiser. As for the previously mentioned Le’Veon Bell, he has exceeded 35% of offensive snaps just once since joining the Chiefs and saw a season low of 16% in the first round of the playoffs. I postured it when it happened but with the Bills in the mix for Bell earlier in the season is it possible the Chiefs were keeping him away from a team they could see in the AFC Championship game? Something to think about. In front of whoever is running the ball is an offensive line, that like the Bills, looks a little different from the last time these two teams faced off. At Center the Chiefs elected to start veteran Daniel Kilgore over presumptive starter Austin Reiter. Reiter would eventually regain his starting role in Week 9 and will get the start against the Bills on Sunday. At RT Mitchell Schwartz started the game against Buffalo but after suffering a back injury early in that game has now been replaced by ex-Bucs, Chargers, Panthers, Rams, Vikings, and Giants tackle Mike Remmers. The other 3 positions are held by men that Bills saw in their last matchup. Andre Wylie (RG), an undrafted free agent from 2018, and Nick Allegretti (LG), a 7th round pick in 2019, man the guard positions where they combine to be roughly 630 pounds and are capable of pushing the DTs in front of them back into opposing LBs. The OL is topped off by its headliner, Left Tackle, Eric Fisher who earned his second Pro Bowl nod this season and has been one of the more consistent linemen in the NFL over his 8-year career which started with him being the #1 overall pick in 2013. Fisher has incredibly quick feet and long arms which will provide him an advantage over whichever pass rusher lines up over him. I would not be surprised in the least if the Bills employ the same defensive scheme they did against the Chiefs in their first matchup during the AFC Championship game. Forcing the Chiefs to run the ball at a defense which now includes the most underrated player in all the NFL, Matt Milano, should play right into Buffalo’s hands. If the Chiefs take the bait and elect to go this route it should surprise everyone if they exceed their 221 rushing yards from the previous matchup. The Bills’ Front 7 has vastly improved since that matchup and should see new faces, including Harrison Phillips, making plays up front. Expect a light lineup at times during the game meaning more Ed Oliver and Quinton Jefferson as the Bills’ attempt to pressure Mahomes and force the Chiefs to run up the middle. This puts heavy reliance on the Bills’ LBs to clean up the scraps which via dramatic improvement, Tremaine Edmunds looks more capable of now than at any other point in the season. One player that goes un-talked about way more than he should is Safety Jordan Poyer. A massive Pro Bowl snub, Poyer is playing with a chip on his shoulder and under the bright lights with a chance to prove why he is not just one of the best in the AFC but the entire NFL, expect a big game from him and keep your eyes peeled for his use of the “Peanut Punch”. EDGE: Chiefs 👏 👏 Bills’ Special Teams vs. Chiefs’ Special Teams Coming into the playoffs the Buffalo Bills were widely considered to have one of the best ST units in the entire NFL, which has been tested through 2 weeks. In the Wildcard round the Buffalo Bills played the Indianapolis Colts whose Special Teams consisted of above average return groups, excellent coverage units, a similar kicker to the Bills, and one of the more efficient punters in the NFL. The Bills may have lost the field position battle here but when calling upon their punter and kicker they answered the bell every time while a Colts’ missed kick ultimately decided the game. Against the Ravens the Bills would play one of, if not, the greatest kickers of all time in Justin Tucker, a punter that had barely given up any return yards, and solid return and coverage teams. As the game ended the Bills and Ravens’ Punters paced each other, as did the Bills rookie Kicker to Justin Tucker, while Andre Roberts was the only return man able to pick up yards in the return game (34 in total). Were these decisive victories for the Bills against opposing Special Teams? No. But when going against the best and at a minimum finishing neck and neck with them the Bills’ Special Teams have clearly announced themselves as a weapon in the playoffs. As we roll on in the playoffs I would not be surprised if, though I would advise against, this is the last time we see Andre Roberts in a Buffalo Bills’ uniform. Still, the 2020 2nd Team All-Pro is a weapon for Buffalo and while he still is yet to score a TD for the Bills don’t be surprised if he has a splash play or two left in him. Heck, there is even a chance he could be the deciding factor between the Chiefs and Bills. At Punter is Corey Bojorquez who has had a Renaissance of a season and is undoubtedly in the upper echelon of Punters in the NFL. Last is Bills’ Kicker Tyler Bass who against the Ravens missed his first FG kick(s) since his 61-yard miss against Seattle back in early November. Bass quietly put together a rookie season for the ages and looks to be on the trajectory to emerge as one of the better kickers in the NFL. For the Chiefs they trot out 2019 Pro Bowl return man Mecole Hardman who is one of the scarier return men in the NFL. In 2020 his stats have dropped off drastically as he has fallen to 7.0 Y/PR (9.3 in 2019) and 20.4 Y/KR (26.1 in 2020). Still Hardman did bring a punt back for a TD this season and has 4.33 40yd speed making him a dangerous return man to contend with on Sunday. This means for the 3rd straight game Bills’ fans can expect Buffalo to bypass their short kick strategy and kick the ball out of the back of the endzone. At Punter is Tommy Townsend the rookie out of Florida who had a solid campaign as a Punter in his first season. Townsend would finish the season with a Punt Avg of 45.0 and a Net Punt Avg of 40.4 right around the middle of the NFL in both categories. At kicker is Harrison Butker who at times is in contention for best kicker in the NFL and at others misses kicks that even Sam Ficken could hit. On the regular season Butker went 25 of 27 on Field Goals with misses from 42 and 48 but just 48 of 54 (88.9%) from XP. In his first playoff game against the Browns Butker would go on to miss 1 of 2 FGs (33yd) and 1 XP. This is without a doubt something to monitor during the AFC Championship. EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 Why We Will Lose All season long these posts have been filled with a recurring statement, “The Buffalo Bills are the more talented football team”. Sure, I could argue that to be true this week, but I could just as easily argue that the Chiefs are more talented. It all starts on offense where a large amount of the credit is owed to…Andy Reid? Yes, Andy Reid the coach who had turned Donovan McNabb into a household name, Michael Vick into an MVP contender, and Alex Smith into a perennial winner as a starting QB has now been handed the keys to a QB who may just be better than all of them combined. Reid will find the weak points in the Bills’ defense and he will attack them over and over until the Chiefs put up enough points to win the game. Kelce is a mismatch, Hill is a zone breaker, they will run the ball effectively, and Mahomes will make big play after big play. And then there’s their unheralded defense that has quietly been improving as the season went on and at points was the key to them winning football games. They have the two dynamos in Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones who have been described in detail above while the other 9 players on the field with them complement each other well. The Chiefs will send complex blitzes at Allen, stuff the run, blow up the Bills’ receivers and force multiple turnovers turning what should be a close game into a blowout. All those statements are feasible outcomes of this game and if even a portion of them were to occur expect the Chiefs to head to their second straight Super Bowl. Why We Will Win This is not the same Bills’ team that the Chiefs played on October 19th. This isn’t the same Bills’ team that people have known for the past quarter century. Instead this is a Bills’ team that has showed an affinity for showing up when the whole world is watching. Led by one of the toughest coaches in the NFL the Bills will arrive in Kansas City prepared and their OC, Brian Daboll, will have a gameplan ready to attack a Chiefs’ defense which does not match up well with the Bills’ offense. Yes, they have a competent secondary but if Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters were unable to shutdown Stefon Diggs who on the Chiefs will be able to? Factor that in with the other weapons the Bills have in the passing game and a Quarterback that will surely exceed what he did the last time these two teams met, and the Bills are on the precipice of a 30+ point outing. Is this the same defense that the Chiefs saw in the early part of the 2020 season? No. Back then the Bills’ Palms defense was struggling, and they were without the player that makes their defense hum, OLB Matt Milano. Still, the defense came inches away from turning the tide of the game in October when Justin Zimmer tackled CEH for a 4-yard loss and what looked to be a fumble but was later overturned. By mere inches the Chiefs avoided giving the ball to the Bills on the 35-yard line up 6 with 5:23 left to play. But close only counts in horseshoes in hand grenades and on Sunday night this Bills’ defense isn’t looking for close enough, they are looking to dominate. Turnovers are the key for the Bills and if Buffalo can limit them on their side and force 2+ by KC then the Buffalo Bills who are STARVING to get to a Super Bowl will punch their ticket to Tampa Bay. Prediction:Bills 31 – Chiefs 28 Coming into writing this post I was confident I was going to choose the Chiefs to win this game. They already beat the Bills this season, the game is in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are experienced in the AFC Championship. Then I started looking at the matchups and I noticed that most of the downfalls of their previous game resembled more aberrations than dominations. Don’t get me wrong the Chiefs could easily win this game but something just feels right about picking Buffalo this week. I expect this game to go down as one of those instant classics we talk about years from now and possibly start a new rivalry in the NFL. At the end of the day I think there will be one big play that decides this game. It could be a Honey Badger strip sack, could be a tip drill between Hyde and Poyer, could be a last second scramble by Patty Mahomes, or could be a rocket thrown by Josh Allen hitting Diggs deep. But I’ll take the Bills making that play. So, Mount Up Mafia, it’s almost game time.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/insidestory/_/id/30862243/nfl-mock-draft-2021-todd-mcshay-post-super-bowl- 📷📷 1.Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson Another mock draft, another Lawrence-to-Jacksonville projection. You won't be seeing much of anything else, and for good reason. The 6-foot-6 big-armed quarterback has all the traits you want in a franchise guy, and he would be the focal point of what new coach Urban Meyer hopes to build. Only Washington has a lower Total QBR over the past three seasons than the Jaguars' 41.6, but Lawrence has finished in the top 10 among all FBS quarterbacks in that category in every season of his college career. He will throw for scouts on Friday ahead of surgery on his non-throwing shoulder this spring, but consider him a lock for the top pick at this point. EDITOR'S PICKS · 📷 10 prospects rising and falling at the Senior Bowl: Who has impressed NFL scouts · 📷 Projected 2021 NFL draft order: Jaguars clinch No. 1 pick, Dolphins move into top five · 📷 Kiper's first mock draft for 2021: Will Justin Fields or Zach Wilson be the No. 2 QB? 📷 2.New York Jets Zach Wilson, QB, BYU What the Jets do here will alter how the draft plays out -- but this projection is more about the spot than the team because, frankly, the Jets have some evaluating and decision-making ahead. We know they are listening to offers for QB Sam Darnold, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are aggressively pursuing a trade. Regardless, this much is pretty clear to me: If Darnold is traded, Wilson should be the pick. And if New York keeps Darnold, I think a team -- perhaps Carolina -- will jump on the chance to move up to take Wilson here. The BYU signal-caller is tough in the pocket but can also create when it all breaks down, and he excelled on the deep ball this season, hitting 20 of 27 passes thrown at least 30 yards downfield. 📷📷 Trade: Carolina moves up the board OK, my guy Mel Kiper Jr. waived the no-trade clause on our mocks, so let's have at it. The Panthers give the Dolphins a call in this scenario, seeing a chance to jump the line to get a quarterback at No. 3. Miami originally acquired this pick via an August 2019 trade with the Texans but now hand over the selection to Carolina in exchange for the No. 8 pick, the Panthers' second-rounder (No. 39) and a 2022 first-rounder. It's a great haul for the Dolphins, who just barely missed the playoffs this season and can now build even further around QB Tua Tagovailoa. But it's also a good price for the Panthers, who need their QB of the future. 📷 3.Carolina Panthers(via mock trade withMIAthroughHOU) Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State Eight of the Panthers' 11 losses were one-score games, running back Christian McCaffrey missed most of the season and the defense was an improved unit this year. But Carolina needs a QB it can build around. Teddy Bridgewater is under contract for two more years -- with a potential out after the 2021 campaign -- and can serve as a bridge, but his 15-to-11 TD-INT ratio in 2020 left a lot to be desired. The quarterback-to-Carolina rhetoric isn't new, but some might be surprised to see Lance as the pick rather than Ohio State's Justin Fields. Both possess strong arms, both are highly competitive, both are sturdy in the pocket and can pick up chunks when they decide to tuck it and run, and both can hit the deep ball. But in going back to the tape, I think Lance goes through his progressions a little quicker than Fields, who gets stuck on his primary read too often. It's tight, but I think Lance has an edge. 📷 4.Atlanta Falcons Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State Atlanta will want to move out of this spot and pick up some extra draft capital, and plenty of other teams likely will be interested. It needs reinforcements at edge, offensive line, running back, tight end and linebacker. Quarterback, however, is not a dire situation, as Matt Ryan is still highly productive and under contract through 2023. But if the Falcons can't trade out, will they really pass on the opportunity to draft their QB of the future? It's no given that they will be drafting this high again any time soon, and Ryan is turning 36. Fields has consistency concerns, but he will be a talented NFL starter with an ability to drive the ball and make plays off-schedule outside of the pocket. In two seasons as the Buckeyes' starter, he has 63 touchdown passes and just nine interceptions. If it plays out like this, it would be the first time that quarterbacks have gone 1-2-3-4 to begin Round 1. 📷 5.Cincinnati Bengals Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon Cincinnati fans watched No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow take 32 sacks in 10 games, so no one needs any convincing here. Sewell -- who opted out of the 2020 season -- is a game-changing tackle. Opposite Jonah Williams, he'd help keep Burrow upright when the Bengals' franchise quarterback returns from a knee injury suffered on (yup, you guessed it) a hit this season. Whereas Sewell allowed just one combined sack during the 2018 and 2019 seasons, the Bengals closed 2020 with the fifth-most sacks allowed (48) and tied for the third-worst pass block win rate (50.0%), an ESPN metric powered by NFL Next Gen Stats. 📷 6.Philadelphia Eagles Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU The Eagles' wide receivers room ranked No. 30 in yards this season (2,082), and they were one of three teams to catch fewer than 60% of their WR targets (56.3%). Those numbers came even after they drafted Jalen Reagor in the first round last April. The Eagles need to give quarterback Jalen Hurts -- who is taking the reins as the team moves on from Carson Wentz -- tools to succeed, and that, of course, starts with a game-breaker on the outside. Chase vs. Alabama's DeVonta Smith is a tough call, but I think Chase might have slightly better traits and certainly more size at 6 feet, 200-plus pounds. You might have forgotten because he opted out in 2020, but Chase had 20 touchdowns and nearly 1,800 yards in 2019. It's win-win for Philadelphia if both receivers are still on the board, but the LSU product gets the call here. ESPN Illustration📷 7.Detroit Lions DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama If Philly is on the clock and both Chase and Smith are still available, you'll see some smiles from new coach Dan Campbell and new QB Jared Goff. It would mean one of the talented pass-catchers would be there for them. Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola are all pending free agents, meaning the most productive wide receiver on the roster returning right now is Quintez Cephus, a fifth-round rookie who had 349 yards in 2020. It's a problem, but not one that the Heisman winner can't help solve. Smith is explosive, piling on 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns in his senior year. 📷 8.Miami Dolphins(via mock trade withCAR) Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama So in our mock trade scenario, Miami picks up an extra first-rounder and a second-rounder and it still gets an elusive playmaker on offense. Tagovailoa was ranked 35th out of 35 qualified quarterbacks this season in yards per attempt when targeting wide receivers (6.2), and the WR group was No. 30 in the NFL in yards after the catch per reception (3.18). Waddle caught 48 passes from Tagovailoa during their Bama days together, and he'd be a dangerous option opposite DeVante Parker. This would not only be the first time a school has sent multiple wide receivers to the first round in back-to-back years, it would also be the first time two from the same school have been off the board this quickly. (The previous high was last year, when Alabama's Henry Ruggs III and Jerry Jeudy were off the board by No. 15.) 📷 9.Denver Broncos Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama We will have to see if new GM George Paton decides to run it back with Drew Lock as the team's clear starting QB, but with four signal-callers off the board and the Broncos' pick of any defender in the class, they would likely address another need at No. 9 regardless. Cornerback happens to be one of those needs. Bryce Callahan and A.J. Bouye are both primed to hit the open market, and Denver hauled in only 10 interceptions this season. Surtain didn't have his best season, but he's a true shutdown corner with the instincts to read and reroute receivers. 📷 10.Dallas Cowboys Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech Big D needs help on D. Last year's second-rounder, Trevon Diggs, looks like a solid find for the Cowboys, but that secondary is still problematic -- especially now that Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis could be headed elsewhere in free agency. The Cowboys allowed 34 passing touchdowns this season, tied for the third most in the NFL. Farley (another opt-out) is a ball hawk who could turn some of those TD passes into interceptions. 2021 NFL draft coverage 📷 • Mock drafts:Kiper » | McShay » • Rankings:Kiper » | McShay » • Meet the loaded, elite QB class » • 30 big questions for Kiper & McShay »Full ranking » | Pick order » | More » 📷 11.New York Giants Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida With the top three wide receivers and top two cornerbacks off the board, filling those needs would mean significant reaches for the Giants here. Offensive line could be in play, as could the edge rush. But if Pitts is still there at No. 11, it'd be really hard for New York to do anything but add the 6-6 speedy and versatile matchup nightmare. Giants tight end Evan Engram has missed 14 games over four years and will be a free agent after next season. In the meantime, the Giants could enjoy a fantastic duo at tight end -- Pitts is versatile enough to play with Engram and be moved around the formation -- and provide quarterback Daniel Jones with a playmaker. 📷📷 Trade: Chicago makes a play for a QB Another trade! Four quarterbacks went in the first four picks, and in this scenario, the Bears didn't fully address quarterback via free agency or trade. That means it's now or never for Chicago, and it pulls the trigger on a move up the board in the middle of the first round. So what gets it done? To land the No. 12 pick from San Francisco, the Bears would have to send their own first-rounder (No. 20) and a second-rounder (No. 52), probably along with a 2022 first- or second-rounder. This is more than the traditional trade-value chart expects, and whether that '22 pick is of the Day 1 or Day 2 variety would depend on how desperate Chicago is for the last true Round 1 QB still out there. Niners GM John Lynch could maybe throw a midrounder back to the Bears to sweeten the deal and get it done. 📷 12.Chicago Bears(via mock trade withSF) Mac Jones, QB, Alabama This would tie the earliest that five quarterbacks have been drafted in the common draft era (1999), but the Bears didn't want to risk missing out on the player I consider the final Round 1-worthy QB. If there is a run on quarterbacks, and Wentz goes to Indianapolis or elsewhere, then the Bears have to do what they have to do here. Mitchell Trubisky played pretty well down the stretch, but after declining his fifth-year option, Chicago is likely looking at other options. This season, the Bears were 25th in Total QBR and 28th in yards per attempt, and they tied for the fourth-most interceptions thrown. Jones had a fantastic 41-to-4 TD-INT ratio and led the nation in Total QBR at 96.1. He anticipates well and has a nice touch on his deep throws, and Chicago would hope he can spark one of the NFL's least efficient offenses. 📷 13.Los Angeles Chargers Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern The Chargers were middle-of-the-pack with 34 sacks allowed in 2020, but they saw QB pressure on 33.5% of their dropbacks (eighth in the NFL). Not what you want when you have a rookie quarterback whom you are trying to build around. Los Angeles will have free-agency concerns all over that offensive line in the near future, too. So how about drafting a talented and versatile tackle who can pop inside to play guard or center? Slater opted out in 2020, but he would help give quarterback Justin Herbert time in the passing game. It's worth pointing out, though, that the Chargers could go in a lot of directions. They are facing quite a few free-agency questions this March, and how that plays out will directly impact the focus of this pick. 📷 14.Minnesota Vikings Alijah Vera-Tucker, OT/G, USC Minnesota will take a long look at the pass-rushers on the board, and it might decide someone like TCU safety Trevon Moehrig is worth the grab here. But the Vikings' offense starts with a good zone-blocking scheme, and Vera-Tucker excels there, with a feel for angles and blocking at the second level. I like how Ezra Cleveland, last year's second-rounder, has fit into the Minnesota offensive line puzzle, but more help is needed in protecting quarterback Kirk Cousins and springing running back Dalvin Cook on big runs. Plus, Vera-Tucker can play tackle or guard. First Draft Podcast 📷 Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay break down the 2021 NFL draft. • First Draft podcast » 📷 15.New England Patriots Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State No, one of the top five quarterbacks isn't available, but this isn't a bad consolation prize for coach Bill Belichick. Parsons -- my No. 4 prospect overall -- slides to the No. 15 pick here because of unique circumstances following a rush on QBs and wide receivers. Dont'a Hightower will be back after opting out of the 2020 season and Chase Winovich has been disruptive off the edge, but Parsons gives Belichick a true sideline-to-sideline linebacker who can do a little bit of everything. And if the team moves on from Hightower after the 2021 season when he is set to be a free agent, Parsons would be the QB of this defense going forward. As for QB of the offense, it doesn't seem to be in New England's nature to trade up for one. Watch the free-agent market closely and keep an eye on what happens with former Patriot Jimmy Garoppolo, but if it comes down to the draft, the Patriots might have to look to Day 2 if all five QBs are indeed off the board. 📷 16.Arizona Cardinals Gregory Rousseau, DE/OLB, Miami (FL) Finally, an edge rusher. The last time it took this long to see one drafted was 2004, when Will Smith went to the Saints at No. 18. But you won't hear any complaints from the Cardinals, who can jump on an opportunity to slide in a difference-maker opposite Chandler Jones (who is a free agent after next season). The Cardinals were tied for fourth in sacks this season (48), but 12.5 of those came from Haason Reddick, who is hitting the open market this spring. Rousseau opted out in 2020 but trailed only Chase Young in sacks in the FBS the season prior with 15.5. 📷 17.Las Vegas Raiders Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame The Raiders spent last spring bringing in Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski at linebacker, but the unit didn't help a defense that surrendered the eighth-most yards per game in 2020, and Raekwon McMillan is now a free agent. Owusu-Koramoah gives the Raiders a little bit of everything and something they don't already have in that LB corps. He can play off the ball in overhang, he can cover and he can rush the QB. This is a true value pick in the middle of the first round, and the Notre Dame game-breaker provides versatility to a defense that is begging for help. There are holes all over. The pass rush generated all of 21 sacks this season, and the run defense allowed north of 125 yards per game. And let's not forget that Derek Carr has two years left on his deal and at least some QB consideration needs to be made if one or more of the top quarterbacks are still here at No. 17. 📷 18.Miami Dolphins Jaelan Phillips, DE, Miami After getting Tagovailoa a receiver at No. 8, let's turn our attention to the defense and keep a strength exactly that. Miami had 41 sacks in 2020, tied for 10th in the NFL, but the rich get richer with Phillips, who racked up eight of his own this season. The Dolphins will love his suddenness and length coming around the corner. And looking ahead to 2022, he'd ease a potential loss of Emmanuel Ogbah or Jerome Baker in free agency. 📷 19.Washington Football Team Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida Toney isn't the most polished receiver in the class, but he is ultraversatile and offensive coordinator Scott Turner could get very creative with the way the team uses him. After Terry McLaurin (1,118 yards), you have to look all the way down to Cam Sims (477) for the second-most productive WR on Washington this season. Toney caught 10 touchdowns with the Gators in 2020. And of course, Washington is another QB-needy franchise. But Alex Smith is still under contract, and the team can afford to wait it out if no one falls to it in this spot. Washington could handle this in free agency or via a trade, too. play 1:56 Toney shines as Florida steamrolls Mizzou Kadarius Toney catches two touchdowns and runs in another as the Gators dominate on both sides of the ball for a convincing 41-17 win over Missouri. 📷 20.San Francisco 49ers(via mock trade withCHI) Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU Remember that we had the Niners trade back to this spot. The Garoppolo decision looms large for the Niners' draft plan, and what happens there might not only keep San Francisco from trading down but might even influence a trade up into the top 10. For now, though, let's fixate on a secondary losing many pieces. Safety Jimmie Ward is currently the only defensive back on the entire roster under contract beyond next season. Perhaps the 49ers look to cornerbacks Jaycee Horn (South Carolina) or Aaron Robinson (UCF), but the value and need of Moehrig is just too great to miss. He's my No. 13 prospect and picked off six passes over the past two seasons. 📷 21.Indianapolis Colts Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan The Colts are playoff contenders right now, so I'd expect them to look for a more veteran option at QB -- Wentz or Darnold jumps to mind. Maybe Virginia Tech offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw is the play, replacing Anthony Castonzo. Perhaps cornerback is a focus. But with three of the team's top defensive ends out of contract -- Justin Houston, Denico Autry and Al-Quadin Muhammad -- I think replenishing the edge is going to be critical. Drafting Paye gives the Colts a playmaker (he had 8.5 sacks over his last 16 college games) and simultaneously blocks a division rival with a big need in that place set to pick next.
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