Previous Posts & Full Ratings
This isn't really going to be the usual kind of post I make about the rating system, so if you're here to see any specific data or expecting numbers and charts, I'm sorry to disappoint today! This is the story of how the Whole-History ratings came about and why I'm still working on them today. I've also left thanks to those people who left comments that kept me working on this despite all the failure and changes this project has gone through.
EDIT: If you don’t want to read the whole story, just skip to the last section 🙂

Finding a Problem

It's been over a year since I started my journey to find a more effective ranking or rating system for MMA. I don't know the date that I started working on the project, but my first post about it was back on the 4th of September, 2018. This whole project was inspired by seeing a video on youtube that chronicled the entire history of the UFC rankings for some specific divisions. I noticed that there were a lot of times that rankings changed with no reasonable justification that I could see. I'd only been watching MMA for about a year at that point (thanks to Bisping vs GSP) so there was a lot of discovery to be done.
Being curious about how these rankings were generated, I was quite shocked to see that they were generated through a few individuals voting for who should be in which position. Further investigation showed me that even the most popular unofficial rankings on Tapology were generated by community votes. This seemed naturally wrong to me as those rankings could be easily subject to popularity, exposure and general bias or out-of-cage events.

First Steps

Being a football fan, I'm used to having league tables generated seasonally by awarding 3 points for a win and 1 point for a draw, with goal difference being used to distinguish teams with the same number of points. This was my first idea for implementing a ranking system. I decided to award 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw and then bonus points based on the round that a fight ended, taking the last 5 fights within 2 years to calculate this.
After putting all of this together, building a dataset and creating the first iteration of my rankings website, I proudly posted them here. Inevitably, these rankings got heavily criticised by the community here, pointing out many issues and flaws with what I'd done, plenty of new arrivals to the UFC who were nowhere near being ranked had just as many points as champions and the deeper the division was, the more outlandish the ratings were.
While this was very disheartening to me, having put a lot of work and time into writing this whole system and spending money on hosting for the website, one comment caught my interest, someone mentioned the Elo system to me, which isn't something I'd heard of before or had any knowledge of. For a while, however, I took the site down and ceased work on the ranking system, believing that there was no way I could do anything approaching a reasonable job at making a ranking system.

Needing a Project

At the early point of 2019, I reached the last year of my degree, I'd been working part-time from home on a degree in Computing and IT for 5 years at that point and for the last module, I would be required to plan and produce a project of my choosing and report on it. Struggling to think of what to do, I remembered my pitiful attempt at a ranking system for MMA from months earlier and since there was still no good system I could find, I decided to restart the project and use that for my degree.
Remembering the Elo system mentioned before, I went and investigated it, writing my own implementation of Elo, in some cases adding various modifiers and constantly trying to tweak it to produce reasonably accurate results. While it worked better than the points system I had made before, it also was horribly flawed. If you believe that Donald Cerrone is the best fighter in the world, you might have agreed with it, but I didn't and so I had to continue my journey.
The next thing I looked into was TrueSkill, which is Microsoft's ranking system used for various online games. It's similar to Elo but instead of simply having a single rating value, it would also track a confidence value as well, the more games you play, the less your rating should move because the system would become more confident that it had the correct value for you and If you lost where you were expected to win, your confidence would decrease. This seemed like a possible improvement.
Digging around online led me to find an old abandoned implementation of TrueSkill that I carefully updated and included in my project. This seemed like it was a lot more accurate to me than the Elo system, however, there were still many major issues with it. The obvious one was that while it was easy for someone to climb the rankings early in their career, once they got a strong certainty, it would take a long time for them to drop once they started losing. I still have this system running on the website and even today Fedor Emelianenko is the number 6 ranked fighter in the world pound-for-pound.
At this point, I was starting to get a bit worried overall, both the systems I had looked at had failed me and I was thinking that perhaps I should try to find something else for my final project or even delay it and try again next year.

Discovering Whole-History

Searching around for anything to try and help me achieve my goals, I stumbled across a whitepaper by Rémi Coulom titled 'Whole-History Rating: A Bayesian Rating System for Players of Time-Varying Strength' which I read through. I understood very little of the mathematics that I was looking at, but what I did understand was that this rating system seemed to propose a solution for all of the issues present in the systems I'd tried before.
With Elo and TrueSkill, you store a value or two to represent the rating of each fighter, then, when a new fight happens, you take the ratings of both fighters and the result and it gives you their new values. It's a linear rating system that goes forward in time and would theoretically get more accurate as more fights happen. This isn't how Whole-History works at all.
With Whole-History ratings, you generate everything in one go, you input the data for every fight that has ever happened and then you iterate over that data, generating ratings for every single fight that happened at the same time. With each iteration, the ratings are smoothed out to form what would be a line graph of that fighters estimated skill over time. If you take a fighter on any given day, their rating is influenced not only by the fights that happened before that day, but also all the fights that happened afterwards as well.
The way I like to describe it is that if you were a boxer and you fought and beat Floyd Mayweather in his debut fight, under other rating systems, you'd gain very few points for that win since Floyd would only have a low, default rating. As time goes on and Floyd wins his next 50 fights, in hindsight, your win against him looks far more impressive than it did at the time, but your rating wouldn't change. In Whole-History, your rating will be increased to reflect that your win indicated that you were more skilled than originally assumed.
The same goes the other way around if you are the first person to defeat an undefeated fighter, normal rating systems will reward you greatly for it, but if they then go on to lose their next 10 fights in a row and everyone realises that actually, time caught up with them and they aren't as good anymore, your rating would be reduced to reflect that.

The Work Begins

Once I discovered this rating system, I set about implementing it. I searched around and found an implementation of this rating system on Github that is being used for an online Go website and over the course of a month or so, carefully ported this library into the language that the rest of my project was using and also implemented the ability to have drawn results, something that the original system didn't do at all.
Armed with my new ranking system, on the 2nd of March this year, I posted the ratings and predictions for UFC 235.
The response was not as bad as before, but still very mixed. I was criticised for Walker being given a very low rating, which was simply a result of only having two of his fights in my data and another commenter said that it 'sounds like a system Robin Black would come up with' which I took to mean that it wasn't very good.
As the results for that event came in, I finally felt like I was onto something. The ratings successfully predicted that Usman would beat Woodley, Askren beating Lawler and that Munhoz would beat Garbrandt among other correct predictions. In fact, it correctly predicted 8 of the 12 fights on the card and I posted the next day with my results and some thoughts on why some fights were predicted wrong and what to do next.
I continued posting predictions for the next few events with varying success and to varying responses. I was asked to stop posting by one person because I was apparently 'losing people money' when they were betting on the rating system, something I never asked or told anyone to do. Some cards had really poor predictions, others had more accurate predictions and the biggest factor seemed to be how many of their fights I had in my data. The next step seemed obvious, to try and compile the most complete set of fight history I possibly could.

Expanding The Data

With the first round of testing complete, I went back to my dataset and completely rewrote my data gathering application. This was the biggest task in the entire project and was the point I came closest to abandoning the entire thing.
I wrote multiple processors that would gather all the new results from multiple different sources and store each of them, which worked just fine. The problem though was finding a way to match up the duplicated data in each set and to, at the same time, work out where data was directly contradicting. There were and still are many places that had one person fighting someone at an event and then the other source had them fighting a completely different opponent at the same event.
There was also the issue of nicknames, some places used nicknames in place of real names while others would just use their actual name. Some other people have the same name as each other but are completely different people. This was a massive undertaking and after months, I still don't believe I've been able to get it working perfectly, but it does work and I'm yet to see the same fighter show up twice in my data. I'll save you all the tedious details of exactly how I did it, but it consisted of many late nights and all of the coffee that Cuba has ever produced.
Finally, I set up the website to actually display the results for everyone to see and browse as they want. There are ratings from amateur fighters with only a single fight in obscure promotions all the way up to the very top of the UFC and all of that data is used to calculate the ratings (which is why the fighter records might seem wrong if you look at the site, they include amateur and exhibition fights in the overall record).

Finishing Up

With the rating system now roughly complete save for some minor tweaks here and there, I wrote and submitted my final report in September this year and I'm due to get the results on Monday next week.
The rating system has an overall predictive accuracy of 66% as I've posted before and with the data, I've been able to produce plenty of what I hope are interesting graphs and posts on this subreddit. I plan to continue doing so for as long as people show interest.
The reason I'm making this post isn't just to share how this all came about, but more to thank everyone who left positive and supportive comments along the way, as well as the people who gave me helpful suggestions and made me think about solutions to the problems I was having. I'm not a confident person and I'm very easily dissuaded by negative feedback, so without those comments, I doubt I'd still be working on it today and I certainly wouldn't be paying £70 a month on hosting to keep the rating site running.
I can't thank everyone who has given me support as there's been plenty of comments and discussions outside of my actual posts, but having gone back through all of the previous posts, I'd like to thank u/throwawaybjj44, u/blownclutch3000, u/WonkDog, u/ALAVG, u/BasiPrime37, u/JapanSage, u/creatorsellor, u/PatriotScum, u/iamkingofkings123, u/SteveXmetal, u/czv3, u/weighinsJoannajizz, u/S18P120, u/xyzxyz94, u/RIZIN_Max, u/cambodiadashcam, u/kneeco28, u/branduNe, u/Junesfoshiz, u/Mckenzieajm, u/DiarrheaMonkey-, u/laydowndead, u/ricosuave3355, u/340g and u/2049509468 as all of you have either given me supportive comments, shown interest in this project or made me think about something I need to do differently and it's because of you that I'm still doing this right now. Also, thank you to MMA because without this place I'd have nowhere to share this project in the first place!
The project isn't over, but the first year is! I hope I can keep on improving the ratings next year and keep your interest as well as maybe improve that 66% accuracy to something even better!

Sharper MMA returns this weekend with picks and analysis for every fight on Saturday’s UFC card.
UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker is a top-heavy card, with the main event by far the most anticipated fight of the show. But there is plenty of betting value to be found throughout the event, including a few upset picks.
Check out our selections below for the full card, including the two best bets on the menu.
Saturday’s card is the last of five events this past month at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. After tonight, the promotion moves on to the star-studded UFC 251 and its three championship bouts on “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi two weeks from now.
Enjoy the fights.

UFC on ESPN: Poirier vs. Hooker

• Saturday, June 27, 2020
• Las Vegas, Nev., UFC Apex

Prelims: 5 p.m. EDT, ESPN / ESPN+

Featherweight: Jordan Griffin (+110) vs. Youssef Zalal (-120)

• The pick: Youssef Zalal (-120).

Zalal was super-impressive in shutting out Austin Lingo at UFC 247 in February. “The Moroccan Devil” has a far higher ceiling than Griffin, and should be priced a lot higher than -120.
Strawweight: Kay Hansen (-165) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+155)

• The pick: Jinh Yu Frey (+155).

At 35, Frey is 15 years older than her opponent, but both fighters are making their UFC debut. Frey, a former Invicta atomweight champion, is by far the better striker in this contest, and is not facing much of a size disadvantage either at the higher weight class.
The price of +155 is a gift here; grab it while you can.
Welterweight: Takashi Sato (-255) vs. Jason Witt (+235)

• The pick: Takashi Sato (-255).

Witt takes this fight on about a day’s notice for his UFC debut. At age 33, he is hardly an up-and-coming prospect, despite his decent regional run the last decade.
Sato simply outclasses Vitt as the Japanese fighter has a higher floor and higher ceiling.
Lightweight: Luis Pena (-220) vs. Khama Worthy (+200)

• The pick: Luis Pena (-220).

It’s another lightweight showcase in the featured preliminary bout, and this one is surprisingly tough to call. Worthy comes in on a six-fight win streak, his first event since his upset-of-the-year against Devonte Smith.
Worthy is tough, but Pena is just the better all-around fighter and has more ways to win, especially if they get to the ground. Look for “the Violent Bob Ross” to add another impressive victory to his canvass.

Main Card: 8 p.m. EDT, ESPN / ESPN+

Catchweight (150 lbs): Sean Woodson (-480) vs. Julian Erosa (+423)

• The pick: Sean Woodson (-480).

Woodson cruised to a unanimous decision in his UFC debut against Kyle Bochniak six months ago to maintain his undefeated record. “The Sniper” will look to continue his winning ways against the late-replacement Erosa — “replacement” being the key term, as “Juicy J” is firmly established as a journeyman-level fighter on the fringes of the promotion.
Erosa begins his third stint in the UFC with this fight, and neither should last long as Woodson will put him away early. Book “The Sniper” to win more than the 83 percent of the time needed to make a profit at this price.
Heavyweight: Philipe Lins (-105) vs. Tanner Boser (-105)

• The pick: Tanner Boser (-105).

It’s a coinflip matchup at heavyweight, and each fighter is coming off a loss. The difference is that Boser was beaten by Ciryl Gane, a potential future heavyweight champion. Lins dropped his last fight to Andrei Arlovski, who is on the wrong side of 40 and on his way out of the UFC with nine losses in his last 13 (with one no contest.)
The Canadian “Bulldozer” is six years younger than Lins, and seems to be the more accurate striker. Lins may have a small edge in power, but neither of these guys is very good at finishing fights, so look for Boser to get the nod in a decision.
Heavyweight: Gian Villante (+200) vs. Maurice Greene (-220)

• The pick: Maurice Greene (-220).

Greene was putting together a decent run at heavyweight before running into two very talented combatants in Sergey Pavlovich and Gian Villante. While no one will mistake Greene for a championship contender, he’s got a much better resume and is five inches taller than his opponent.
Villante is an atrocious 17-11 as a pro and is clearly on the downswing of his career. More important, a Sharper MMA axiom applies here: never bet on anyone who has lost to Sam Alvey.
Take Greene and lay the 220 with confidence.
Middleweight: Brendan Allen (-300) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+270)

• The pick: Brendan Allen (-300) * BEST BET.

This is the fight that the savvy UFC fans are buzzing about, and you will see why once these two set foot in the Octagon.
“All In” Allen is on a monster run through the UFC, winning his last six with five finishes. The Louisianan has knockout power, elite grappling and the submission skills to put his opponents to sleep regularly. At age 24, Allen is quickly moving his way up the middleweight ranks to become a championship contender.
It’s hard to find anything bad to say about Daukaus. He’s a similarly young prospect at 27, and has an undefeated record coming into his UFC debut tonight. Like Allen, Daukaus has a knack for finding finishes. Just one of his nine career fights has gone to the judges’ scorecards.
Ultimately, it’s Allen that has the more versatile game, higher ceiling and better experience. It’s out of respect for his undefeated opponent that Allen’s price is as low as -300, but we think “All In” gets the win way more than three times out of four, making Allen one of the best bets on the card.
Welterweight: Mike Perry (-290) vs. Mickey Gall (+260)

• The pick: Mickey Gall (+260).

We’ll come right out and say it: neither of these guys is very good, and the previous fight should have been the co-main event.
But Perry has a big name with a loud and controversial personality. And about two or three years ago, “Platinum” Mike also had a fight game worth betting on.
That’s no longer the case. Perry has lost five out of his last seven bouts, and the only impressive win during that stretch was a split decision over Paul Felder. We last saw Perry getting embarrassed by Geoff Neal in December in Las Vegas, where the fight was over in 90 seconds.
Gall, meanwhile, is probably the more talented fighter right now. He is an accomplished grappler, with five out of his six MMA wins coming by submission. He clearly has a lower ceiling than you’d like, evidenced by his knockout loss to Diego Sanchez, who is not exactly a world beater.
This fight will come down to Perry’s punching power vs. Gall’s grappling. Perry is the favorite, but he will not win anywhere close to 27 percent of the time, and that’s all we need for Gall to be a profitable bet at this generous price.
Lightweight: Dustin Poirier (-225) vs. Dan Hooker (+205)

• The pick: Dustin Poirier (-225) * BEST BET.

This clash of top-five lightweights is by far the best fight of the card, and probably also the most interesting matchup of the UFC’s five-event homestand at its Apex facility.
The bout should tide over fight fans nicely until the UFC anchors on “Fight Island” in two weeks; it may also have serious championship implications, depending on what happens in the lightweight unification bout between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje, which is tentatively slated for September.
Hooker is on a phenomenal run after moving up to lightweight in 2017, winning seven out of eight, all in the UFC. His victims include some impressive names, like Gilbert Burns, who will challenge for the UFC welterweight championship in Abu Dhabi. Hooker last notched a controversial split-decision win over Paul Felder in an absolute war of a fight in “The Hangman’s” home of New Zealand in February.
Hooker will bring his elite kickboxing, sturdy chin and effective pressure in hopes of scoring another signature win to pad his case for a title shot.
Dustin Poirier is on a similar hot streak in the lightweight class, winning five straight (with one no contest) against a murderer’s row of 155-lb talents before running into the inevitable mauling by Nurmagomedov in their title fight last year.
Poirier, long known as a go-for-broke knockout artist, added nuance to his game in the lead-up to that championship fight. He showed patience to win vs. Gathje in what seemed like a match of equals, and Gaethje has gone on to destroy everyone in his path since.
Poirier has the pressure-fighting skills to match Hooker, and is definitely the more powerful puncher. Poirier also has the faster set of hands.
Hooker will have the height and reach advantage, and will do better to keep this fight at range. But that’s not Hooker’s style, and in a battle of pressure against pressure, Poirier has a big advantage.
Poirier’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu belt is black compared to Hooker’s blue, so the American should have the edge if the fight goes to the floor.
It’s a fascinating stylistic matchup with strength-vs.-strength, but Poirier is a level above Hooker talent-wise, and is a bargain at this price of -225.
Who are you picking in this banger of a main event? Let us know in the comments.
Be sure to hit the subscribe button below to receive free emails, so you never miss a Sharper MMA post.

Hannah Gold (-150) Miranda Granger (+130)

Hannah Gold passes the eye test, she’s jacked. I looked at her and I looked at a google image of Miranda and I thought, Goldy gets it done each time, every time. I wanted to look more into it before I got too far out over my skis. On Dana White’s Contender Series Hannah showed good clinch work against the cage and good defensive wrestling against a girl whose goal was to take her down. Hannah didn’t have any interest in trying to take Kali Robbins to the ground. It’s possible she didn’t want to go in her guard. It’s also possible she started MMA five years ago and hasn’t wrestled her whole life so that’s not her skill set. Hannah seems content to rely on her strength, grappling and defensive wrestling to keep the fight standing or find her way back up if she does get taken down. Her jiu jitsu skills are not her strong suit and that’s an area where Miranda has an edge. She doesn’t have a consistent power threat but she has power in her head kicks out of a scramble and post clinch strikes to knock you out. I was looking to see if Hannah was going to gas out because she’s jacked and muscles need oxygen. She looked okay in the 3rd round and she was moving almost as much as that Japanese dude against Hakeem Dawado. Before I move on, I would like to point out, it would be very nice if UFC fight pass would direct you to a fight that’s exclusively only shown on ESPN+, in stead of just saying, “blacked out, ESPN+ shows the fight.” ESPN+ is a difficulty website to navigate for mma fans. I watched Hannah Goldy vs Kali Robbins, I wanted to rewatch it…couldn’t find it. Maybe it’s my fault, I don’t know but I’m moving on. Miranda Granger won her last 2 fights via guillotine choke and arm bar. Neither of those are happening in this fight. I think Goldy has enough technique on the ground along with pure strength to avoid being finished. And standing guillotine chokes rarely work at this level. I feel like I’ve heard Joe Rogan say, “that guillotine looks tight...wait never mind he’s out” 100 times. This isn’t Cage Fury; CM Punk doesn’t do post fight interviews, and the fighters don’t get caught in standing guillotines. I don’t see Miranda’s grappling advantage transitioning to the UFC. Granger fights at strawweight, this fight is at flyweight. Goldy fights at flyweight, so she will have the strength advantage. Goldy cut to 116 for the Contender series and didn’t have cardio issues there, I think she looked better at Flyweight in New Jersey. I think these 2 ladies are going to stand and strike for 3 rounds or less. I did get to see Hannah strike for 3 rounds on Dana White’s contender series and she looked good, powerful with strikes out of the clinch and powerful with a head kicks from a scramble. Hannah likes to keep distance and strike from the perimeter, which does cause her to move a lot. If Miranda gives her more of a threat striking I think it’s possible she is more fatigued in this contest, but Goldy fighting at her natural weight helps. Kali Robbins had some success with leg kicks, I can see a scenario where Miranda chops her legs which will derail her movement. Kali Robbins did a poor job or cutting Hannah off, effectively chasing her around the ring. Miranda will do a better job of cutting Hannah off. The best video I found of Miranda striking is a YouTube video shot from a fan sitting in the crowd. When the fight went to the ground the fan turned their phone to the big screen to get a better view, just so we all know what kind of tape I had to look at. She fought Kaila Thompson. Kaila came out strong catching Miranda early. Miranda showed her striking skill and in the 2nd finished the fight with strikes from full guard. I think Hannah judges distance well enough and is patient enough to catch Miranda on her way in. I’d like to see Hannah engaged in the clinch and look to throw the left hand from the clinch.
Prediction
I want to talk myself into Miranda really bad, she’s a little taller which adds to her reach, I can see the legs kicks being an effective weapon for Miranda. If I felt like Miranda was going to use her impressive body to grapple along with her striking skill set I’d be more confident Hannah gets a win in her UFC debut. I do still think Hannah will win, she looked solid on the contender series and she doesn’t have to cut to 115 lbs, this fight is at 125 lbs so that will help with her cardio. Miranda comes from Cage Fury; the competition jump might be too much for Miranda in her debut. Hannah by decision.
Betting

I was impressed with was Goldy’s head kicks from a scramble (I’m like 85% I saw a head kick from a scramble but I couldn’t find the damn fight on ESPN+ to watch it again) and strikes from the clinch. Gambling is designed to be fun, I put $50 in a gambling fund before my wife and I went to see UFC Rochester and we had fun. I’m a fun guy, prop bets at noon on a Saturday is fun, and I have 2: Goldy wins in the 2nd round +1075, Goldy wins in the 3rd +1750. Size matters, especially with women, Goldy will be much bigger in this contest and I like to trust myself if I notice something so I’m running with it, I think Goldy might catch Granger with a head kick or a strike from the clinch. 

• Goldy wins (-140) 1 unit
• Goldy wins in 2nd round (+1075) 1 unit
• Goldy wins in 3rd round (+1750) 1 unit
Claudio Silvia (-420) Cole Williams (+300)

Claudio Silvia beat my boy Leon Edwards in his UFC debut. I’m a big Leon Edwards guy, so I’m impressed from the get-go. I watched Claudio vs Leon Edwards, Nordine Taleb, and Danny Roberts. Claudio Silva is a mutant on the ground, if he takes you to the ground, he will choke you unconscious or break your limbs. Claudio does not have high level stand up but he can certainly throw some body kicks and a left hand. Leon Edwards, Nordine Taleb, and Danny Roberts all win in a kick boxing contest, but all lost in the octagon, a guy wearing a gi doesn’t beat those guys so we know Claudio Silva can strike a little bit. Claudio Silva takes a punch decently well; he needs to because he needs to get inside and drag the fight to the ground. I guess Ramazan Emeev has visa issues and had to bow out, in comes Cole Williams. I watched a fight on YouTube, Cole Williams is a big white guy that’s capable of punching carrying a 6-7 fight win streak from a lesser promotion. 

Prediction
Claudio Silva wins this fight by submission in the 1st round. Silvia has beaten high level UFC caliber strikers; he won’t have a problem with Cole Williams.
Betting

Now, here’s where it gets interesting, I don’t want to pay the (-450) price to bet Claudio Silva. BUT I’m a fun guy, prop bets are fun. I bet on the UFC fights to make fights I might not otherwise be interested in, fun. I think this fight reminds me of Claudio Silva vs Nordine Taleb. Nordine Taleb is obviously a much higher-level striker than Cole Williams, but Silvia will still have to strike with Williams in order to get the fight to the ground. In the Taleb fight Silva mounted Taleb and rained down devastating blows. I fully expect Silvia to mount Williams and who’s to say the ref doesn’t call the fight by TKO? Everyone expects Silvia to win by submission and the odds reflect that, the odds for winning by TKO/KO are (+675). I do think Silva’s striking is better than William’s. Silva’s roots are a hard kid from the slums of Brazil, he didn’t forget how to punch, Silvia could knock William’s out on his feet or from mount. Again, (insert fun guy comment) and I’ll take Silva by TKO/KO. 

​
• Claudio Silva wins by TKO/KO (+675) 1 unit
Mara Romero Borella (-165) Lauren Murphy (+145)

Mara Romero Borella fights out of Coconut Creek, Florida training at American Top Team. Her debut was a beautiful rear naked choke and Borella looked promising. Unfortunately, she lost to Katlyn Chookagian in her 2nd fight in the UFC. Borella had trouble setting up her take downs because she didn’t have a reach advantage and she was kind of stuck kick boxing with Chookagian, kickboxing is not her bread and butter, Borella wants to use her strikes to get close enough to grapple with you against the cage and possibly take you down. When Borella didn’t have a reach advantage to get close she didn’t know what to do. The judges noticed that too and she lost a decision where neither girl did much in the fight. I watched that fight and all I could think watching it was, “This girl does not have a passion for mma.” You know who does have a passion for mma? Her Opponent, “Lucky Lauren Murphy.” There is a glint in her eye when she’s being interviewed about fighting. I watched “Lucky” Lauren fight to a split decision victory over Barb Honchak and a decision loss to Sijara Eubanks. “Lucky” Lauren has a good ground game off her back, executing a rare rubber guard against Eubanks. There’s nothing that really stands out about “Lucky Lauren” that gives her a physical advantage over Borella, but “Lucky Lauren” wants it more. 

Prediction

When I studied these 2 fighters the one overwhelming takeaway was Mara Romero Borella doesn’t want it as bad as “Lucky” Lauren Murphy. I looked for every excuse in physical traits of both fighters to pick the underdog here. Eventually, I rationalized that Borella has reach, age is on her side, Murphy is coming off a cartilage injury in her foot, the path to victory by decision is there for Borella. But you know what? Murphy wants it more and she’s getting lucky in this one, “Lucky” Lauren is getting lucky with a favorable decision in this one. 

Betting
• “Lucky” Lauren Murphy by decision (+250) 1 unit
​
Jordon Espinoza (-120) Matt Schnell (+100)

Jordon Espinoza likes to stay at distance, occasionally come in for a strike and quickly get back to safe space. I’ve seen him shoot for a well timed take down but his wrestling isn’t remarkable and not a factor. Espinoza gets caught with left hooks a weirdly frequent amount. Espinoza keeps his hands low but does maintain distance so it’s not a huge problem. I do think Espinoza does slowdown in the 3rd round which isn’t a great sign for his prospects at flyweight. I didn’t see knockout power from Espinoza, he doesn’t like being in the clinch or any kind of brawling settings. Matt Schnell has decent boxing. He throws a lot of left hooks, I think that might have to do with having surgery on his right shoulder, but I’ve noticed a lot of left hands in Schnell’s game plan. I don’t think the ground game plays a significant part of this fight but I do like Schnell’s ground game better. I will take Schnell’s cardio over Espinoza and Schnell is a little bit bigger. Schnell did survive the mass exodus of the flyweight division by going to bantamweight, and now he’s back. You always have to root for a guy who a survivor. 

Prediction
Schnell is 100% catching Espinoza with at least 1 flush left hook in this fight. I also think Schnell will cut the ring off and force Espinoza to dance even more, putting pressure on Espinoza’s cardio. I do think there’s a good possibility Schnell shoots on Espinoza and lands a takedown when Espinoza is moving laterally. Lateral movement isn’t ideal for take down defense if you opponent can anticipate your lateral movement. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Schnell take Espinoza down in the 3rd round, effectively stealing the round. I have a lot of checks on Schnell’s box, size, cardio, ground game, left hooks, and he survived as a flyweight when there was talk of shutting down the flyweight decision. I like guys that just won’t leave. Schnell trained at American Top Team and currently trains with Joseph Benavidez, and that guy is a killer. Good training means something in mma, Schnell wins by decision.
Betting

I do think Schnell catches Espinoza with a left hook, but it's real tough to have knockout power at flyweight. I think Schnell gets the decision here but I’m not going to bet the decision prop because I would feel pretty dumb if Schnell KO’s Espinoza with a left hook and I don’t win money. 

• Matt Schnell wins (+100) 1 unit
​
Antonina Shevchenko (-145) Lucie Pudilova (+125)

Lucie Pudilova has a kick boxing style with her kicks being her best attribute. Antonina Shevchenko has more of a Muay Tai style mixing in some tai clinches with knees. Neither girl will look to take this fight to the ground. Both girls have had troubles against grappling heavy opponents. Pudilova looked extremely timid against Liz Carmouche because she didn’t want to be taken down and Shevchenko lost a decision to Roxy Mondafferi, because she couldn’t handle Roxy’s wrestling. Lucie Pudilova will be more the Lucie that fought Irene Aldana, kicking like a Rockette dancer, compared to the Lucie that fought Ji Yeon Kim where she mixed in some grapping. Shevchenko will be happy to partake in a Muay Tai fight with Pudilova. 

Prediction

There are a couple things I feel separate these two women. The first is cardio, I feel like Lucie Pudilova gasses out late in fights. In the Irene Aldana fight I remember Lucie throwing a ton of kicks and walking Aldana down. In the 3rd round of that fight I feel like she was extremely fatigued leading to her loss to Aldana. I also see Lucie has a long history of bantamweight fights; the UFC is trying to get this flyweight division going which means Lucie is cutting an extra 10 lbs. Her Instagram pictures being wrapped in towels aren’t going to help her cardio. The second fact I feel like affect this matchup is Valentina Shevchenko is Antonina’s sister. If the baddest flyweight on the plant, and the women who I feel gives Amanda Nunes the hardest fight, is your sister, you are going to get better at mma. The third thing that gives Antonina the edge in this matchup is her tai clinches. I can see Antonina in against the fence kneeing Lucie in the face from the tai clinch with Valentina in the background going, “Yaaaaaaaa.” 

Betting

I think Antonina has more mma skill training with her sister and I think she beats Lucie Pudilova. I also believe that Lucie Pudilova is going to have trouble with her cardio and there is an opportunity for Antonina to KO her in the third round. If the Lucie Pudilova from the 3rd round of the Irene Aldana fight shows up to the 3rd round in this fight, Antonina tai clinch knees her unconscious. How can you not bet the Shevchenko sisters parlay with Valentina fighting next week? 

• Antonina/Valentina Shevchenko Parlay (-110) 1 unit
• Antonina Shevchenko 3rd round finish (+1975) 1 unit
​
Salim Touahri (-125) Micky Gall (+105)

I was excited about Salim Touahri, he’s got a cool name, he looked the part when he was walking to the octagon in Poland against Warlley Alves. But he was completely outclassed. It was a short notice fill in for Touahri, so I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt. His next fight was vs Keita Nakamura a veteran of the sport, alright here we go. He was extremely unimpressive in this fight too. In both fights Touahri fatigued in the 3rd round, I didn’t notice any remarkable wrestling or jiu jitsu skills, he likes to strike. I wouldn’t consider Salim Touahri a threat at the welterweight division any time soon. Micky Gall is also in the position where he needs a win if he wants to continue his UFC career. Micky Gall has a decent ground game, he takes your back you might be in a little bit of trouble When he fought Randy Brown he was hurt and continued to a decision, I thought he won the second round in that fight and I am a big Randy Brown fan. Now, he also grabbed the fence about 9 times, held Randy’s gloves and grabbed his shorts, but I’ll tell you what, I like a guy that cheats. A guy that cheats wants to win. Stand up is not Micky’s strong suit but he did hit Randy Brown in the face in the first round so he’s not Ben Askren. 

Prediction
Keita Nakamura timed some take downs well against Touahri, I think Micky can hang with him long enough to time some take downs and manage to get the fight to the ground. In Micky’s fight vs Diego Sanchez his body shut down. He claimed his kidneys failed due to his weight cut, I believe him. I think Micky has a better weight cut and takes the fight to the ground enough to win a decision. I find the non-traditional mma markets struggle with jiu jitsu, and I think Micky wins because of his skills on the ground with the help of a couple fence grabs, glove grabs and shorts grabs of course.
Betting
• Micky Gall wins by decision (+420) 1 unit
​
Darko Stosic (-130) Kennedy Nzechukwu (+110)

Darko starts fights by standing in the center of the octagon and trying to unleash a massive counter right hand, Darko’s like a boa constrictor for the first round. Darko has the classic problem with big muscular guys entering the octagon, all those muscles need oxygen, what happens when the fight gets out of the first round? Stosic did go 3 rounds with Devin Clark but wasn’t fresh in that fight and lost a decision. Stosic’s wrestling is good, he reversed the take down attempt from Jeremy Kimbell and landed on top. Stosic grappled with success with Clark in the second and third rounds when he was tired, he’s a fun fighter to watch Kennedy Nzechukqu clearly has problems with his ground game evidenced by the Paul Craig fight. Fortunately for Nzechukqu, I’m not sure Stosic is looking put him in a triangle or arm bar from guard. Kennedy is long but, in the Paul Craig fight, the only significant strike came from eye poke. Kennedy has physical attributes but I don’t see a killer instinct in his. 

Prediction
If Stosic catches Nzechukwuin the first I think the fight is finished. I don’t see any killer instinct with Nzechukwu. I even think Stosic can win by decision with his cardio issues. Stosic can win grappling clinches against the cage, and I don’t think there’s much Nzechukwu could do about it. Nzechukwu’s best chance of winning is keeping his distance with his massive 8-inch reach advantage and winning by decision. Darko Stosic wins by first round KO.
Betting
• Darko Stosic wins (-130) 1 unit
Scott Holtzman (-450) Don Hyun Ma (+360)

Scott Holtzman is well rounded fighter. One thing I noticed in his bout with Patrick is he fights long, catching Patrick on his way in. I feel like Holzman judges distance well and does have power in his right hand. I’ve also noticed Holzman has good defense coming away from scrambles, getting his hands up to block head kicks. Sometimes when fighters lose tough decisions I ask myself, “Who would win in a fight to the death?” In McGregor vs. Diaz 2, Nate kills him every time. If Dana White comes out in Roman Emperor dress and demands more rounds, Scott Holtzman beats Nick Lentz each time, every time. Don Hyun Ma is a South Korean guy, age of 30. I spent like 15 minutes trying to find Don Hyun Ma old fights, and half way through I think I found that Dong Hyun Ma also goes by Dong Hyun Kim. I’m still very confused on the issue. I may or may not have watched one round of Don Hyun Ma/Kim. I’m going to assume he’s like the other Korean fighters, he likes to strike and his wrestling and ground game is subpar. I find nontraditional mixed martial arts countries lack wrestling skills and jiu jitsu but are high level strikers. 

Prediction
Scott Holzman looks like a well-rounded fighter. As an ex hockey player myself, I can’t go against him here. I wonder if he ever dropped the gloves in the east coast league, I have to think so, right?
Betting
• Pass
Trevin Giles (-160) Gerald Meerschaert (+140)

Trevin Giles is a good boxer. He moved to 185 lbs. and looked really good against Antônio Braga Neto. I saw Giles in Rochester where he took his first loss against Patrick Cummings. Giles had 500 days between fights when he lost to Patrick Cummings. In any case be prepared for him to, “Wooo” along with the crowd. I’m not a big fan of the, “Wooo” chant. Gerald Meerschaert is fantastic on the ground. Meerschaert unfortunately was a part of Jack Hermanson’s coming out party. Meerschaert was surprised Hermanson wanted to take the fight to the ground and I saw Hermanson cut through Meerschaert’s half guard to full mount like butter. The fight didn’t get any better for Meerschaert. Meerschaert vs Kevin Holland seemed like an endless transition of one guy choking the other to the other guy choking each other. It reminded me of this comic that made me laugh, a guy walks into a sexual choking class wearing his gi and addresses the female instructor, “Please, be more specific in your advertisements next time, in my last match I made this guy cum.” I did find that Meerschaert was extremely fatigued in the Holland fight. 

Prediction

I have no idea what’s going to happen in this fight. I feel more confident predicting Don Hyun Ma’s fight, and I couldn’t watch a single one of his fights on UFC Fight pass. I would hate to lead anyone astray with a guess, I’d at least like to have an inkling before I made a prediction. 

Betting
• Pass
​
Nasrat Haqparast (-255) Jaoquim Silva (+215)
Nasrat Haqparast is ferocious with his hands. I have no problem with his cardio. His wrestling looks good. His ground game looks solid. Young. Looks like Kelvin Gastelum. This kid is a killer. Fights out of Tri Star in Montreal. Jaoquim Silvia is very patient fighter. I believe Silva has cardio issues and he tries to pace himself. His body type screams cardio issues. Silva has knockout power but he tries to conserve energy so he can only dip into the well a couple times in a fight. Silva tends to be trailing 2 rounds to 0 heading into the 3rd round, this is where you may find him trying to go for a knockout and get into the pocket more compared to staying outside. Against Jared Gordon he was down 2 rounds to 0 and went for a knockout. Silva was fortunate to find a completely gassed fighter, I don’t think Silva knocks out Jared Gordon without extreme fatigue.
Prediction
Nasrat Haqparast is going to knock Jaoquim Silva out. I don’t see a single advantage Jaoquim Silva has in this fight. I think you might actually see Haqparast chasing Silva around the ring like a game of tag in the 1st round. Haqparast wins by KO in the 2nd round.
Betting
• Haqparast wins (-255) 3 units
• Haqparast wins by TKO/KO (+225) 2 units
​
Jim Miller (-150) Clay Guida (+130)
Jim Miller is born in New Jersey, hometown fight. Miller shoots good double legs and is very good at choking you out when he takes your back. Jim Miller did most of his good work before I was an mma fan, I don’t think watching a couple of his fights is going to give me an understanding of his skill set. Clay Guida is 37 years old. This guy strikes me, along with Diego Sanchez, as a guy that’s really going to give father time the middle finger. I don’t claim to know much about Clay Guida. I hear his cardio is excellent.
Prediction
I texted my friend Jim who he thinks is going win a fight between Clay Guida and Jim Miller, “Both veterans and stand up guys, I’ll go with Guida”-My friend Jim. If you trust my friend Jim go for it.
Betting
• Clay Guida wins (+130) 1 unit
​
Colby Covington (-235) vs Robbie Lawler (+195)
Colby Covington has elite cardio and puts a pace on guys that wins fights. I watched Colby’s loss to Warlley Alves thinking, “Alves is a good kick boxer and may mimic what Colby will see Saturday.” He kind of got caught in a standing guillotine choke I don’t see UFC fighters get caught in. I don’t really see that translating at all in this fight. Colby allowed Damien Maia to bloody his face, so his striking isn’t his strength. Robbie Lawler is the people’s fighter. 90% of people will be rooting for Robbie this weekend. I watched the Strike force fight with Tim Kennedy at 185 lbs. Robbie struggled to stay off his back but did catch Tim with a nasty uppercut. Robbie probably still has that uppercut in his arsenal. Robbie’s smashing of Ben Askren went viral, he’s dangerous against anyone in the UFC welterweight division. Robbie doesn’t have great cardio.
Prediction
Colby wins the same way Colby beat RDA, he’s going to pin him to the fence for 25 minutes, put his Make America Great Again hat on and carry the cool UFC belt out of the octagon. He may catch a couple punches from Robbie but fighting is a young man’s game. Colby isn’t Ben Askren, Robbie will have to defend himself on the feet and I would be very surprised if he doesn’t come away with a victory here. Let’s not forget Colby and Robbie spent time at ATT together, Colby has sparred with Robbie in the past, he knows what Robbie looked like in his prime, he’ll be ready for it. I give Robbie one chance to knock Colby out in the first round, but it's Colby Covington’s fight after that.
Betting
• Colby Covington wins by decision (+127) 1 unit

I started a hobby last week of doing write ups for the UFC fights. I put $50 on an online site when my wife an I went to UFC Rochester. It makes the fights more interesting and I've enjoyed being interested in fights I wouldn't otherwise be interested in. Its probably easier to read in the blog form, theres excel tables and stuff ahah. I'll copy and paste it below too.
https://medium.com/@j.granttracy/ufc-uruguay-betting-analysis-cc48ab79fd97?sk=749f6ae338073a4730decc19849dabb7
UFC New Jersey Reflection
· Hannah Goldy…I apologize. I thought Miranda Granger was going to show up thin, she was gigantic with an 8 inch reach advantage, wasn’t even a close fight.
· “Lucky” Lauren Murphy! Happy she got the win, sad she didn’t get a $50,000 bonus, unfortunately I bet the decision.
· Nasrat Haqparast is a killer.
· My friend Jim will not longer contribute.
​
Polyana Viana (-160) Veronica Macedo (+135)
​
The UFC knows what they’re doing here, Rachael Ostovich cancels, they bring in Polyana Viana, these two girls are rockets. Polyana Viana beat the hell out of a thief attempting to rob her, everyone loves a UFC girl beating the hell out of a thief story. Viana showed excellent jiu jitsu for almost the entirety of her Maia Stevenson fight and segments of JJ Aldrich fight but Viana has a problem getting the fight to the ground. Viana has a bigger problem holding her hands low. In every fight she gets hit in the face because her hands are low. Viana tends to get fatigued, she looks real big for 115 lbs, I have a feeling she cuts too much weight. Viana had a height and reach advantage over Hannah Cifers. Cifers took advantage of Viana’s hands being low and connected with her face a lot. Viana could not manage to wrestle Cifers to the ground but she did have some success pulling guard in the 2nd round. She took this fight with Veronica Macedo short notice and it will be at 125 lbs, I am interested to see how she performs at 125 lbs. Veronica Macedo impressed me fighting Andrea Lee. Her strikes were dangerous, each punch or kick was vicious. At one point I think she threw a left head kick as if it was a flying knee, i’m not even sure what I saw but I liked it. Macedo’s jiu jitsu from the bottom was awesome. Lee had full mount and back mount a couple of times but Macedo is slippery, she twists and kicks her legs up and next thing you know she’s up. Macedo’s grappling was the reason she lost. Lee was bigger and stronger and used her strength to win grappling situations. Macedo is undersized for the 125 lbs division which is a reason why she struggles grappling. I thought Macedo’s grappling improved in her fight with Gillian Robertson, she won some grappling situations in the 1st round. Macedo was dominant when the fight was standing, but the grappling eventually cost her. It doesn’t matter how good you are at escaping back mounts and full mounts, these positions are dangerous. Unfortunately, Macedo was caught in a rear naked choke. Macedo is 23 years old and training at the MMA Lab, she will continue to make improvements with each fight.
Prediction
Macedo has a vicious striking advantage. Viana’s strength is her jiu jitsu but she struggles to take her opponents to the ground. Macedo does wear a black belt but she doesn’t want this fight on the ground. Viana has a cardio issue at 115 lbs, but it is possible fighting at 125 lbs helps her cardio. It’s also possible a short notice cut to 125 lbs is just as hard on her cardio. Macedo’s grappling has improved with every fight, if she keeps this fight on the feet she will win. I don’t think Viana has the grappling skills to force this fight to the ground. Unless Viana looks like a different fighter answering the call for a short notice 125 lbs fight Macedo wins by 2nd round knockout.
Betting
Macedo should be the favorite in this fight, she’s a +135 underdog and will be the favorite when the fight starts. I’ve seen cardio issues with Viana, I’ll take a shot with a 3rd round finish for Macedo. It looks like Macedo did end up at as the favorite, I would still take a shot on her with a smaller bet.
· Macedo wins (+135) $50 to win $67.50
·Macedo wins in 3rd round (+1800) $5 to win $90
Aleksey Kunchenko (-125) Gilbert Burns (+115)
Aleksey Kunchenko showed high level stand up in his fight with Thiago Alves. He doesn’t use kicks often but is excellent with his hands. I didn’t see Kunchenko have trouble with Alves, but Alves did have some success with leg kicks in the fight. In the Yushin Okami fight Kunchenko stopped about 10 takedown attempts while dictating octagon control. I don’t see a cardio issue with Kunchenko, this will be his first real test in the UFC octagon. When I saw Gilbert Burns fight Dan Moret I thought he was the best 155 lbs fighter to ever live. That guy cut a tremendous amount of weight for that fight and I couldn’t believe anyone could beat him at 155 lbs. Next fight, Burns is knocked out by Dan Hooker. The cerebral fluid around the brain is the last to rehydrate, guys who cut too much weight don’t have good chins. Burns cuts too much weight for 155 lbs, I think his future is at 170 lbs. Filling in on short notice for this 170 lbs fight will be a good test for him. I really like Burns as a fighter, he has power with his strikes his wrestling is good, and his jiu jitsu is sensational. This should be a good fight of contrasting styles.
Prediction
Burns is an exceptional jiu jitsu practitioner, if the fight lands on the ground Kunchenko is in danger. His striking is wild but powerful, on multiple occasions I've seen Burns throw a power punch that missed by at least a foot. Kunchenko is the higher level striker. I’ve never seen him on his back in the UFC, he stuffed 10 takedowns from Yushin Okami. It should be considered that this is a late notice fight for Burns and he didn’t have a training camp, although he competes regularly in grappling. Alright, here’s how I see this fight going, I think Kunchenko takes the center of the octagon and dictates the fight standing. Kunchenko isn’t going to be hurried, patience is a quality of high level striking. We know Kunchenko stuffed 10 takedowns in his last fight, Burns needs to get this fight to the ground or he loses a decision. Burns is an exceptional jiu jitsu practitioner but he doesn’t have elite wrestling. I could guess and make assumptions about Kunchenko, a fighter I barely know, but I’m not going to. I have seen Kunchenko stuff about 10 takedowns in his fight with Okami. I have seen Kunchenko keep distance and be a patient striker with Alves. I think those 2 facts lead me to believe Kunchenko can stay off his back and win a decision.
Betting
I have no idea what’s going to happen. I’m flirting with Kunchenko winning by decision (+165). If I felt I had more tape on Kunchenko and knew more about his jiu jitsu and takedown defense i’d make a bet. I kinda like Burns wins by submission (+450) but i’d just be guessing. Burns fighting at 170 lbs is another wild card. I’m going to pass on this one, I’m interested to see what happens.
· Pass
Alex Da Silva (-280) Rodrigo Vargas (+255)
Alex Da Silva looked solid in his UFC debut in St. Petersburg. He showed solid striking and grappled well with Alexander Yakovlev. Unfortunately, he was caught in a choke and tapped. Silva didn’t look special anywhere, but didn’t show a glaring weakness. Rodrigo Vargas fights for Combate Americas. Vargas is a southpaw fighter with cardio issues. Vargas wouldn’t be in the UFC if he wasn’t a late fill in.
Prediction
I did not study Vargas a lot but I don’t think he has UFC caliber fighting skills. Silva has the edge everywhere. Silva will win I am just wondering if Vargas’s cardio allows for a stoppage. “Fatigue makes cowards of us all” Silva wins this fight inside the distance.
Betting
I can’t bet on a fight where I watched 1 fight of 1 fighter and don’t know who the other guy is. I will pass on this fight for now. I learned my lesson trying to make a judgement on Miranda Granger off of YouTube videos last week.
·Pass
Geraldo De Freitas (-130) Chris Gutierrez (+120)
Geraldo De Freitas looked good in his UFC featherweight debut verse Felipe Colares. He’s big, his reach is long for the division, and his boxing is sharp. He mixes in some kicks but his boxing is where he's most comfortable. On the ground his jiu jitsu is excellent and his grappling isn’t a weakness. I did see De Freitas fatigue in the 2nd round and a better fighter would've taken his back and stole the round from him or choked him. Michael Bisbing was confused as to why he kept winning boxing exchanges on the feet and finishing with a takedown. This was because of his fatigue level. De Freitas’ cardio was an issue at 145 lbs. Apparently this fight is scheduled for 135 lbs. At his size, I don’t know how this guy is going to make weight and this weight cut will have an effect on his cardio. Chris Gutierrez effectively uses his kicks standing up. In the UFC he hasn’t showed good wrestling or jiu jitsu. I don’t have an issue with his cardio. The more I do these, the more I appreciate the UFC’s match making, I’m excited for this fight.
Prediction
I don’t like De Freita’s cardio or his weight cut to 135 lbs. De Frieta is basically better at everything but I am very skeptical about his weight cut. Gutierrez uses his kicks well and kicking distance is longer than boxing distance so it’s possible Gutierrez can mitigate the reach advantage through kicks. I can also see De Freita’s boxing lighting Gutierrez up on the feet if his kicks are not effective in maintaining the distance. The question I have is can Gutierrez win enough on the feet to make this a cardio battle? I really want to say yes, but I don’t think Gutierrez has the grappling skills to make De Freita work enough to turn this into a cardio battle. I think De Freita’s boxing works in the first round and implements his grappling and jiu jitsu in the later rounds to finish this fight by decision.
Betting
I really don’t like this weight cut for De Freitas but I think he has the skills to win the fight if he doesn’t gas out. I haven’t seen De Freitas gas out at 135 lbs but I’m not sure enough to bet De Freitas as a favorite. Basically I like everything about De Freitas but I don’t like the weight cut. I’m going to trust what i have seen in the fights and not my imagination. De Freitas will win this fight by decision. And maybe i’ll just throw a 5 spot on a 3rd round finish just in case De Freitas cardio does hit a wall.
·De Freitas wins decision (+185) $10 to win $18.50
·Gutierrez wins in round 3 (+1800) $5 to win $90
Raulian Paiva (+100) vs Rogerio Bontorin (-110)
Raulian Paiva has an advantage in this fight with his hands. He has a longer reach than Bontorin and that is where he hopes to win the fight. He favors his boxing over his kicks. Rogerio Bontorin has fantastic grappling and is excellent on the ground with his jiu jitsu. The fight with Magomed Bibulatov showcased these attributes. Bibulatov had a slight advantage striking, especially with his kicks. Bontorin does have a powerful 1–2 as a southpaw but where he excels is his grappling and jiu jitsu. He doesn’t have elite cardio for a 125 lbs UFC fighter but I don’t see a glaring weakness.
Predictions
Raulian hopes to win this fight boxing Bontorin. Bontorin showed he can hang on the feet with a dangerous striker in Bibulatov and take the fight to the mat. I think Raulian is “light in the ass” and Bontorin finds a way to take this fight to the ground and wins a decision.
Betting
I was impressed with Bontorin against the Russian. I think he uses his grappling and jiu jitsu to expose Raulian’s ground game.
·Bontorin wins (-110) $11 to win $10
Tecia Torres (-150) vs Marina Rodriguez (+140)
Tecia Torres looked amazing vs the karate hottie. She got inside and unloaded vicious punches, her grappling was great, and she was never in any danger on the ground. Torres again looked real good vs Jedrzejczyk, she seemed to win grappling exchanges, Jedrzejczyk just threw too much volume and she lost a close fight. Weili Zhang wore Torres down in their fight, she was much bigger, there wasn’t an area where Torres had the advantage. Marina Rodriguez is the classic muay thai fighter transitioning to mma. She is very long and her striking is sensational but she has trouble grappling. Because of this she found herself on the ground in the Randa Markos fight. Jessica Aguilar isn’t much of a test for Rodriguez. So here we go, a very long muay thai fighter facing off with the tiny tornado.
Prediction
Rodriguez might be the longest fighter Torres faced in the UFC. Her reach and muay thai is excellent. Torres will need to get on the inside and use her grappling. I feel like Rodriguez’s take down defense isn’t up to the standards of the UFC but I think it would be against Torres’ nature to become a wrestler. I’m very torn on this one, the thai clinch with knees can be utilized against a shorter opponent. I feel like Rodriguez judges distance well and will catch Torres with a right hand if she tries to get inside. But, Torres did a good job clinching Jedrzejczyk. But clinching against the fence may not be an advantage for Torres. I feel like Torres will need to have a lot of success taking Rodriguez to the ground to win this fight, Rodriguez has more paths to victory. I’ll take Rodriguez by decision.
Betting
Torres is back with American Top Team, fight camps matter. Rodriguez is an excellent muay thai practitioner and she towers over Torres. I think Rodriguez’s size will be the difference, Rodriguez will win a decision here.
·Rodriguez wins (+140) $10 to win $14
Cyril Gane (-380) Raphael Pessoa (+340)
There is film on Cyril Gane, he moves well and obviously has power. He has won all of his fights by knockout. His most recent fight he fought Rouggers Souza in Quebec. I’m a big Jason Herzog fan, feel like he might be the best in the business behind Herb Dean. Jason Herzog was the referee in this contest. Gane connected and Souza was dazed, he was dazed and Gane continued to connect. Eventually he falls backwards and clearly has no idea where he is. His mouth guard falls out while he’s on his knees waiting for Gane to deliver the final blow of the fight, having no idea where he is. Jason Herzog calls time out, proceeds to put the mouth guard back in to the kneeling fighter’s mouth. Pessoa is on his knees, having no idea where he is, tee’d up for Gane. Jason Herzog literally calls time in, and he immediately gets knocked out. It was absurd.
Prediction
This fight is basically 2 random heavyweights fighting. One looks jacked, the other doesn’t. I’ll go with the jacked dude.
Betting
It would take a special kind of person to bet Gane in this one. I don’t hate a bet on the big underdog but i’m going to sit this one out.
·Pass
Enrique Barzola (-120) Bobby Moffet (+110)
Bobby Moffet is a wrestler that's good on the ground. In 2 UFC fights I've seen him lock in 3 darce chokes. He's also worked his way out of triangles., hes a tough guy on the ground. He’s not a great striker on his feet, he wants to do most of his work on the ground, and hes decently skilled at it. I haven’t seen an issue with his cardio. I did not like the way Moffet went down to a straight left from Bryce Mitchell in the first round. Enrique Barzola is not a high level striker, his best attributes are his cardio and wrestling. He doesn’t have remarkable jiu jitsu and he has trouble holding opponents on the mat. He beat Brandon Davis because his cardio was better and he rode him for 2 rounds to get a decision. He didn’t have success with his takedowns in the Kevin Aguilar fight and the striking difference lead to a losing decision. I did find that Barzola looked to be the fresher fighter in the 3rd round of that fight because he was desperate.
Prediction
There are a couple questions that need to be answered in this fight that will decide the winner. The first question is, will Barzola have success taking Moffet to the mat, will his wrestling be successful in this fight? Moffet is a good wrestler, I don’t think there is a big wrestling advantage to be had. I also don’t think Barzola will be able to keep Moffet on the mat if he does get him down. Barzola beat Davis because of his cardio, will that same path to victory happen against Moffet? I don’t think it does, I do think Moffet has good cardio. Moffet is a good match up for Barzola’s 2 main paths to victory, combine that with an excellent ground game and good cardio, Moffet wins a close decision against Barzola.
Betting
I think Moffet is going to win this fight, hes the underdog. I still think there’s really good value at +110 for Moffet. There was a lot better value earlier in the week, people have been betting on him bringing the line down.
·Bobby Moffet (+110) $30 to win $33
Rodolfo Viera (-235) Oskar Piechota (+195)
Oskar Piechota is very patient in his stand up. He wants his opponent to throw first so he can counter by clinching, he doesn’t seem too interested in slipping and countering with a right hand. He’s not a high level striker, but i’m giving him “mutant on the ground status” along with my boy Claudio Silva. I keep wanting to tarnish Piechota’s striking but he knocked down Jonathan Wilson and he knocked out Tim Williams, that’s not nothing. Piechota definitely has improved his striking, I actually thought he was the stronger striker vs Meerschaert. Unfortunately, Piechota couldn’t finish Meerschaert on the ground in the 1st round, and he couldn’t handle Meerschaert on the top in the 2nd round. This kid is tough, the way he lost, he showed his will to win. Chris Tognoni is an awful ref. When you have Oskar Piechota fighting Gerald Meerschaert you don’t stand them up when one fighter is in full guard after like a minute. To compound that, he didn’t protect Piechota from himself when he was out on his feet taking elbow bombs to the head over and over. He let the fight go to the ground where Meerschaert decided to choke him because he was getting tired of punching. He easily slipped a rear naked in because Piechota is only operating on muscle memory at this point. He tried to tap but couldn’t physically muster it, proceeded to go unconscious and here’s Chris Tognoni lifting his arm as if he’s refereeing in the WWF. Chris Tognoni is not my favorite. Okay, so I’m hearing a lot of buzz around this Rodolfo Viera guy. apparently hes a jiu jitsu wizzard. He landed a smooth takedown against Vitaliy Nemchinov and I think his wrestling is actually good. He’s a wild card, he will need to put Piechota on his back to have a chance to win this fight.
Prediction
If Rodolfo Vieira puts Piechota on his back I do think he’s screwed. I do think Vieira has better wrestling than you would think coming from a jiu jitsu wizard. Piechota has made improvements throughout his 3 fight UFC career and he does have the advantage on the feet. I won’t be able to look myself in the mirror tomorrow after proclaiming Piechota, “mutant on the ground” status if pick against him. I’ve been hearing too much smoke about this Viera guy. I don’t want to bet on Tecia Torres’ wrestling path to victory because that’s not her strength and I don’t want to bet on Piechota’s striking to win because its not his strength. If there’s enough smoke, there’s fire, I’m staying away from this one. I’m not that good looking anyway, I don’t need to look at myself in the mirror.
Betting
I’m staying as far away as I can with this one. Rooting for Piechota though.
·Pass
Volkan Oezdemir (-155) Ilir Latifi (+145)
I’m a Volkan Oezdemir guy. He’s riding a 3 fight losing streak but he got exposed by Daniel Cormier, he lost a tough fight to Anthony Smith, and he got screwed by the judges against Dominick Reyes. The book on Volkan is he gases out early. He did gas out against Cormier and Smith but he went 3 rounds with Reyes, I am not handicapping Oezdemir because of cardio issues. Oezdemir has knockout power at light heavyweight, he likes to stand up and box. This fight has been made at least 3 times. I believe in Sweden these guys were supposed to go but Latifi had back issues and it was called off. Anyways, it looks like its happening this time in Uruguay.
Prediction
Oezdemir’s reach and his boxing is going to touch Latifi until he falls. Latifi pulled out of the Sweden fight because of back issues, back issues don’t go away. If you look at Latifi’s record everyone he's lost to is an excellent mma fighter, Mousasi, Blachowicz, Bader, and Anderson. He beats the guys he should beat. Oezdemir is still a top 5 light heavy weight, he will knock Latifi out in the 2nd round.
Betting
Awhile ago I put 3 unites on Oezdemir at -130, nothing changed, Oezdemir wins this fight easily by knockout, when the TKO/KO line comes out i’ll bet that.
·Oezdemir wins (-155) 3 units $46.50 to win $30
·Oezdemir wins by TKO/KO (+155) $10 to win $15
·Oezdemir wins in 2nd round (+550) $5 to win $27.50
Luiz Eduardo Garagorr (-115) Humberto Bandenay (+105)
Well Humberto Bandenay’s first 2 fights didn’t last long. The left kick he caught Martin Bravo wasn’t a fluke, he throws his left kick and left hand a lot. In his 2nd fight his glove tap was refused and 20 seconds later he's knocked out. He did throw up a quality arm bar attempt from the bottom before he was knocked out with a slam and follow up punches. I do see a cardio issue in Bandenay’s most recent fight. Luiz Eduardo Garagorri is a muay thai fighter that hasn’t fought anyone that is relatively good at mma. He’s a hometown guy from Uruguay, my guess is that is why he is fighting on this card. A lot of mma fans don’t like this fight card. Having this fight as the co co main event is evidence for that opinion.
Prediction
It's hard to make a prediction when I can’t really find anything to watch on the favorite in the fight. A home town Muay Thai guy, beyond that, I have no idea who he is.
Betting
I’m going to pass on this fight, really weird fight.
·Pass
Vincente Luque (-230) Mike Perry (+190)
Vincente Luque is the most underrated welterweight in the division. Extremely sharp decision making with his strikes, mixes in some nice leg kicks. He has good jiu jitsu as well. I’m a big fan, saw him in Rochester. If he has an achilles heel, I feel like he has an affinity to start brawling and he's capable of getting clipped. He lost to Leon Edwards by decision but Leon Edwards is a stud. Mike Perry is very entertaining, if anyone hasn’t seen Mike Perry talk about his coaches talking to him during the fight, take a look at it. Perry likes to stand in front of you and throw his hands. He's real strong which helps him clinching against the cage and his take down defense. He switched to Jackson Winkeljohn a couple fights ago. He’s at his best standing in front of you and throwing his hands, his ground game can be exposed.
Predictions
Luque and Perry will stand in front of each other for 3 rounds and i’m excited about it. Luque striking is too good for Perry, he will get the better of him for 3 rounds. On the other hand, Perry is a strong guy and throws really good elbows from the clinch. My only concern for this fight is Luque was clipped and sat down by Ryan Barberena in their fight. He was also clipped by the late fill in Derrick Krantz in the 1st round in Rochester. Mike Perry is certainly capable of catching Luque. It’s a popular opinion that Perry at +200 is a great bet. The problem is Perry has been +200 since opening lines came out and hasn’t moved. If people really believe that the line would’ve moved. Luque continues his assault on the welterweight division and wins by decision even though his last 9 victories came by KO.
Betting
Luque is going to win a decision vs Perry. Perry is a real tough guy and will pose some threats with the clinch but Perry loses a decision. I think I’m just going to watch this fight, I like both fighters and don’t need a reason to be interested in this one.
·Pass
Valentina Shevchenko (-1000) Liz Carmouche (+800)
“It is what it is” we all know what this is. Flyweight is Valentina’s division, she now has a home. Joanna Jedrzejczyk was never close, Jessica Eye wasn’t close and Liz Carmouche won’t be close.
Prediction
Valentina Shevchenko wins this fight by knockout. Muay Thai is Shevchenko’s nature and I think she uses it for 5 rounds or less.
Betting
·Shevchenko wins by TKO/KO (+220) $10 to win $22
·Shevchenko Sister’s parlay continued from last week $11 to win $10

Main Card

• Heavyweight bout: Fedor Emelianenko (-255) vs. Dan Henderson (+235)
• Women's Welterweight Title bout: Marloes Coenen (-115) vs. Miesha Tate (-105)
• Middleweight bout: Robbie Lawler (+210) vs. Tim Kennedy (-250)
• Welterweight bout: Paul Daley (+225) vs. Tyron Woodley (-265)
• Welterweight bout: Scott Smith (+240) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (-280)

Picks in Bold above are the ones I am choosing to win, see below for discussions of the fights and who I will be betting on: (Lines are now taken from my new home at 5Dimes and not BoDog)
Fedor v. Henderson - Wow, this is about as awesome as it gets for MMA fans, two absolute fucking legends of the sport squaring off. Fedor's age and size (or lack of it) might finally be catching up to him following his two losses to bigger, more athletic HWs (he was 31-1 previously) fighitng a man who is out of his weightclass (Hendo is a natural middle or light heavyweight). So age and size might not matter in this one, just ability and technique. Fedor used to get away with not having the hardest traing camps around due to his speed, and the overall lack of skill in the majority of HWs previously. With his speed gone due to age, and his skill advantage gone due to everyone else catching up, there are few folks that Fedor can now really fight at HW. Now, Henderson is another story; his age, speed and size are about even with Fedor and we are left with a battle of Sambo vs American Wrestling with both men having one punch KO power. Honestly, I couldn't be anymore exicted for this fight except if Fedor made it over to the UFC in his prime and was fighting Cain or JDS a couple of years ago. I love Fedor, I love Hendo, both are huge heroes in my book, but I do see Hendo's evolution as a fighter to be further along than Fedor's. I see Hendo winning in an all time classic fight. I see both fighters landing big blows on one another, the fight getting to the ground and Hendo winning due to ground & pound in round 3. However, don't feel anywhere near confident enough to place a bet. Too invested emotionally in the affair to claim no bias. Though Hendo's +235 is appealing.

Also of note: There is a chance for a small arbitrage profit to be made with a bet on Hendo at 5Dimes (+235) at 1u and a bet on Fedor at Sportsbook (-225) at 2.3u. That will net you a 2% return guaranteed.

Coenen v. Tate - Okay, time to make room for the ladies. 135lb title fight between Coenen and Tate still falls under a LOT of typical MMA betting rules. The inferior fighter with a better name is the one to bet against. Coenen is an absolute beast, probably the 2nd best female fighter in the world at any division (1st being Cyborg, who really is a guy, I swear), and Tate, though a good wrestler, is famous for showing off her ass in a LOT of pictures. Tate is good, but is in some trouble with the striking, BJJ terror that is Coenen. At -115, Coenen is a 2u bet for me.
Lawler v. Kennedy - Lawler is a long time veteran who is a brawler more than anything, Kennedy is the squeaky clean, all american wrestler, who can be boring at times, but is damn good at what he does. Kennedy should be able to repeatedly take down and smother Lawler for all 3 rounds. I am also invoking the 9 year rule on Lawler: any fighter that has been in professional MMA fights for at least 9 years sees increasingly diminishing returns. Lawler has been great for the sport, but I just don't like him for this fight. Not betting on Kennedy, cause -250 is too much for me.
Daley - Woodley - Woodley is another squeaky clean wrestler. Daley is another striker, however, the difference in this fight and the one above are vast. Woodley isn't on the same level of wrestling as Kennedy. Daley is younger (MMA wise), and a much more technical striker than Lawler ever was. Daley's losses have come to a phenomenal wrestler (Koscheck) and a striker who is one of the best in the world (Diaz). Folks think Daley can't stop wrestlers cause Kos smothered him. Kos is a national champion calliber wrestler, Woodley is good, but not THAT good. I see Daley frustrating Woodley and stuffing some attempts until Daley catches him with some of his lethal strikes and earns a 2nd round KO. Daley knocked down Diaz (nearly finished him) and nobody does that. So, I am taking 1u on the scrappy underdog, Daley for +225
Smith v. Saffiedine - Funny fight, this one. Lawler & Daley have both beat Smith and Woodley beat Saffiedine, all while in Strikeforce. Either means SF likes having these guys fight on the same schedule (unlikely) or they have a lack of main card talent (much more likely). Anyways, Smith has been in some doozy of brawls. Shit that would make you bleed just watching them. He's most famous for ridiculous comeback win versus Pete Sell, but that was 5 years and 13 fights ago (6-6-1 in those fights). Smith has looked game in almost all of his fights, but is usually used as a stepping stone to showcase others. He beats the weak, loses to the good, we call em "gatekeepers". Will Saffiedine past the test....not sure. His loss to Woodley was pretty one sided, and Saff tends to go to decision (5 of his last 6 fights by decision) while Smith does anything but go the distance, be it winning or losing by KO. I wanna say Saff's technical striking wins the day, but he doesn't have KO power. Smith is a guy who gets better after he is hit. I dunno folks, I can see Saff winning a boring standup fight for 2.99 rounds and Smith pulling a loopy KO out of his back pocket to win. I'm picking Smith to win....and fuck it, let's throw 1u on him at +240 to win. Probably won't win, but +240 is tasty, and I need a reason to root for a possibly crazy fight!
Hope you folks enjoy reading these, would love to hear other people's thoughts. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!

• tl;dr: Betting on Coenen (2u), Daley (1u) & Smith (1u). Arbitrage potential on FedoHendo.

http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/community-spotlight-eve-bet/
What's a friendly little wager between friends? A million ISK says my team is better than your team. Oh yeah? Well, a billion ISK says mine is better than yours! It's a bet! But then the loser doesn't want to pay up. Friendships are shattered, knees are broken, and suddenly it's not all fun and games.
That's why EVE Bet exists. No longer do you need to worry about that shady bookie suddenly deciding that those 2:1 odds he gave you were actually supposed to be 1:2. If you want to bet ISK on virtually anything, EVE Bet has you covered.
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Setting the Odds
EVE Bet began in late 2012. While watching the UFC with a bunch of alliance mates, Kryptyk began to wonder... Is there any way I can spice this up by putting some ISK on the line? Of course, betting amongst friends was possible, but he wanted something more formal, with odds and moving lines and a way to ensure everyone got paid out and no one could run off with the purse.
After looking around, he realized nothing of the sort existed. Seeing a chance to rectify this issue, Kryptyk began talking to his corp CEO, who was a software engineer, and they set to creating a site. In Novermber 2012, eve-bet.com was launched to their alliance using the betting system commonly known as tote or pool betting. Using their alliance as beta testers allowed the newly-formed EVE Bet team to work out all the issues with the site before launching it to the wider EVE player base several weeks later.
From there, the site steadily progressed. They fixed bugs, added new features, and most importantly developed a positive reputation among the community.
EVE Bet's big moment came during Super Bowl XLVII. The championship game for American football, it is watched by hundreds of millions of people around the world. And EVE players are no different. Over 61 billion ISK was wagered on the game through EVE Bet, with over 500 new accounts signing up to participate.
However, the game also showed the operators that the tote betting system wasn't the best. They decided, in order to provide the best experience they could, that they needed to move to a fixed odd betting system.
They developed and launched the fixed odd system for real world sports soon after. They have been using it for several months as of this publication and are even offering a modified version of it for Alliance Tournament XI matches.
Placing a Bet
EVE Bet is supported by an easy-to-use website and interface that players can access through the EVE in-game browser. Bets can be placed on both real-world sporting events such as mixed martial arts, international football, baseball, and more. Additionally, EVE Bet carries odds on a variety of in-game events, such as the currently on-going Alliance Tournament XI, where matches such as Pandemic Legion vs. HYDRA RELOADED can reach tens of billions of ISK in wagers.
Registration is easy. Players simply go to the eve-bet.com website through the in-game browser and set the site to trusted to begin registration. Once registered, players send ISK from the registered character to eve-bet, the corporation dedicated to handling all their finances. Players can even simply do this through the eve-bet website in game. Within 30 minutes, the API will pull the information and the deposit will be in the account, ready to be wagered!
All bets are made under fixed odds. When a bet is made, the odds for your bet are locked in. The line will continue to move as additional bets are made, but you always get the odds as they were when you placed the bet
Security
Of course, EVE Online is well-known for its scams and con men. How does EVE Bet avoid being lumped in with them? Well, they know nothing they can say will ever convince everyone that they're trustworthy. However, they can point to their actions and show they have never once cheated anyone.
Every single withdrawal has been honored, some 2.5 trillion ISK worth since the site was launched. Withdrawal requests are manually processed, but are handled within 24 hours of being made.
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Stats
EVE Bet has been growing in popularity ever since it launched and only looks to be going even higher as more and more players learn about it. It currently has over 3000 active users who have placed 59,235 total bets (as of July 24). There were 1086 active bets on that day as well.
Since the start of Alliance Tournament XI, the numbers have exploded as well. The first weekend of the Alliance Tournament saw 1.5 trillion ISK wagered on matches, while the largest single bet was roughly 20 billion ISK. The largest pool (total amount wagered on one match) for the first weekend was on the HYDRA RELOADED vs SOLAR FLEET match, which had 67 billion ISK placed on it. Then in the second weekend, multiple matches cracked 100 billion ISK wagered. Of course, those amounts may soon be eclipsed by the HYDRA RELOADED vs Pandemic Legion match scheduled for 18:15 UTC this Saturday, which currently sits at a 63 billion ISK pool!
The popularity of Alliance Tournament XI with EVE Bet can be reflected in these numbers, however. Prior to ATXI beginning, EVE Bet had seen 2,837,894,386,877 ISK wagered (that's 2.837 trillion ISK). According to the site's live ticker, that amount has now reached 6,443,215,021,636 ISK (6.443 trillion ISK). That is nearly 2.5 times the wagers!
Final Thoughts
EVE Bet is run by four Australians and one crazy European. They are all close friends both in-game and out. The main man in charge, Kryptyk, is a regular guest on the eve downunder show, which can be listened to on http://www.netgameradio.com/ Fridays at 10:30 UTC.
With Alliance Tournament XI in full swing, now is a better time than ever to get on board and throw your ISK into the ring. Take a safe pick and make a few extra ISK to squirrel away in your wallet. Or take a risk, bet big on the underdog, and potentially hit it rich.
Current players and those who are interested or just have questions can join their in-game channel eve-bet and encourage anyone with feedback, especially on their Alliance Tournament coverage, to post it to their official thread.
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