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Betting Early and Price Shopping

This graph shows my units gained and ROI from betting ATP tennis in 2019 & 2020. The blue line is my actual results over 615 bets in that time period. These are the odds I actually bet the matches at. The stats are as follows: 352-250-13, +77.32u, +8.9% ROI, +1.94% CLV, +12.3 average cents of CLV per bet, and I beat the closing line 70% of the time. You can see all my past bets here. Note: FWIW, people calculate CLV differently. I calculate it as the % difference in implied probability, some people do the expected value % way.
I decided to chart my returns as if I had made every bet at Pinnacle's closing line, the red line on the graph. The difference is quite noticeable. My returns betting at the closing line over those same 615 bets are as follows: +35.8u, +4.3% ROI. Getting on lines as early as possible (assuming you're on the right side) and shopping for the best prices even if its only between 2 or 3 books can make a massive difference in your results. I personally only shopped between BetOnline and Bookmaker as these books are better for tennis, but you could only imagine the insane advantage you could get shopping between 7-8 different books. Obviously many of us on sportsbook knew this was the case in theory, but I thought it would be cool for everyone to see the difference it can make over the longer-term: over multiple years and over 500+ bets, the added value from betting early and shopping for the best price will magnify your returns. After all, not many people track their results long enough to see this change. We're talking about getting only a 12 cent head start on the closing line, doubled my return after 600 picks.
It seems not all Pinnacle closing lines are as efficient as made out to be

I was a bit surprised to see my results at close still had a 4.3% ROI over 600 bets. This return over that sample is beginning to become statistically significant. Pinnacle is known for having some of the sharpest closing lines in the business. Now tennis isn't on the same level as, say, English Premier league, but what gives here?
This graph made by Pinnacle charts over 136,000 odds on tennis matches spanning from 2015-2019. As you can see there is an incredibly high degree of efficiency between the implied win % from the odds and the actual win % of those matches. (Note: the blue line is slightly below the yellow as the bookmaker's margin is not removed). Similarly, here is your ROI by odds groupings if you had blindly bet the Pinnacle closing line of every ATP main draw match since 2010. There's clearly a favorite-longshot bias in play here as underdog ROI's are in the negative double digits, but it seems Pinnacle's ATP closing lines are pretty efficient.
Obviously, my results betting at close vs the empirical data of over tens of thousands of ATP matches on Pinnacle are beginning to contradict each other. My opinion is that is that, although it’s true that Pinnacle closing lines are a great, if not the best, estimator of the true probabilities of a tennis match, this is only true ON AVERAGE. As bettors, we have the distinct advantage of being able to select bets where we believe the market is wrong. We don't have to bet every single match or game. In the span of 2019 and 2020 there were roughly 16,000 ATP and Challenger level tennis matches; I only bet about 3% of them.
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Pinnacle just fucks up on pricing a small percentage of their bets. On the other hand, a prevailing theory may also be that there is some sort of price anchoring going on between Pinnacle and their customers betting into the line. From Joseph Buchdahl's article on Pinnacle: "Let’s suppose instead that when a price longer than the ‘true’ price is published, it is more likely that it will close still longer than the ‘true’price. Conversely, when a shorter than ‘true’ price is published it is more likely to close still shorter than ‘true’. Why should this be the case? Well, since the ‘true’ price remains unknown, both to the bookmaker and their customers, the actual value of the opener could be hypothesized to act as a kind of anchor or reference point which biases judgement and restricts the magnitude of future movements. Sure, pricing mistakes will be exploited, but possibly not by as much as they should be. That, at least, is the idea" of price anchoring.
He goes on to say: The majority of bettors will probably look at the odds before deciding whether to bet rather than undertaking their own analysis to determine a ‘true’ outcome probability. Thus, when a bettor sees a bookmaker’s price of 2.25, they might take the view that the ‘true’ price is 2.05, and not 2.00. The act of observing the 2.25 may influence their judgement to the extent that they will deviate away from the ‘true’ price and towards the anchor price. A similar argument can be applied to prices shorter than ‘true’."
So, it's possible that there is some amount of price anchoring going on, and these closing prices are closing not long enough or not short enough from their fair values. It's also possible that I've just been getting astronomically lucky for the past two years, but we can only guess until I submit more bets.
CLV Matters

Although not all of these closing lines are efficient, my results are better as my CLV improves. See some of these stats for reference.

When getting positive no-vig CLV: +66.78u, +16.0 ROI% over 291 bets
When getting negative no-vig CLV: +10.55u, +2.33% ROI over 324 bets

When my closing line value does not even beat out the bookmaker's vig, the returns are a measly +10u over 324 bets. When I overcome the juice, my ROI skyrockets to 16% over 291 bets.
Lessons learned / Advice

Bet as early as your bet size will allow and shop for the best prices. It will lower the sportsbook's hold and will vastly improve your returns. This is the easiest way to improve your edge right off the bat. I think my results showed this.
Perhaps focus your betting on less efficient markets. Want to bet NFL or NBA for example? Focus on player props, instead of sides and totals. You're more likely to have an actual edge and are also more likely to find prices way off from the rest of the market
If you do decide to dabble in more efficient (hard-to-beat) markets, keep track of your CLV. Once you obsess over beating the closing line you become more price sensitive and more process oriented rather than results oriented. Your focus shifts to accumulating expected value over time that will produce results in the "long-term", rather than "trying to pick winners." on a day-to-day basis. CLV isn't the ultimate proxy for success, there are some exceptions, but the benefits a bettor achieves from making this his / her main focus cannot be overstated.

Anyways, sorry for the long post; hope you enjoyed the read. If you want to follow me this tennis season, I post everything in the Tennis Daily thread. I also have a telegram channel that you can follow so that you get notifications of when I bet. Reddit isn't always the best medium for sharing plays. The next tournament is in a few weeks with the Australian Open right around the corner. Best of luck!

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Guide to the Vanilla Sengoku Jidai Campaign: Legendary Edition! (UPDATED!)

Field ashigaru-heavy armies. This will allow you to keep costs low. It is not for their spear wall ability, though this is powerful, it is because their cost effectiveness will allow you to make mistakes.
Remember, you cannot save-scum on legendary. Something will go wrong, and when you don't need to throw your all-samurai army away in a piss-up, the game is a lot more forgiving, and a lot more fun.
Attack first. Be aggressive. All the tables favour the A.I. So, it is up to you to turn them. Build cheap, expendable expeditionary forces to take enemy castles. You'll thank me when your first stack crushes the enemy at your capital in a siege defence, but doesn't have the movement range to counterattack effectively: this usually results in the enemy A.I. using its game-breaking economy and über recruitment slots to field another full stack in two turns. Fuck the A.I. Make sure there's an ambush force in range of the enemy settlement before the enemy begins their assault on your castle. Do this right and you may not even have to fight their army, fingers crossed. (Armies go poof when their last town goes bye-bye.)
Which reminds me, fight using your castles. Open field battles, when you're attacking that is, are a piss-up. The enemy A.I. always camps on hills and makes it a life or death struggle (unless you bring siege equipment). Arrow towers are not worthless. Choke points are provided to you during siege defences. Use every layer. Don't underestimate good strategy. You can hold 300 men on one side of the castle with one unit of ashigaru. The enemy has to try and take your towers and your central flag; so, place your ashigaru in spear wall directly in front of your flags. The enemy must run at your ashigaru and defeat them before progressing through the rest of the castle. Utilise the stupidity of the A.I. and break the enemy by making them come to you.
If the enemy has archers during castle defences, make them waste their ammo, if there are too many of them, attack first.
Cavalry are not good in bulk unless you're Takeda. Four units is too many units. I bolster my generals with a single cavalry unit, which I place on top of my general during deployment, and then lock them together as if they were a single unit. I have one additional cavalry unit in reserve to replace this one; usually, I hide this unit in the woods until I need it. What this does is make my general more weighty. I can now slam him into the lines when they're looking like they're about to tilt in the enemy's favour, which I don't want. This makes him a true support unit, rather than a liability in combat. Yes, your general may die doing this, but you've taken every reasonable precaution, and 60+ additional bodies makes for at least three well-executed charges into the line before things start getting dubious.
Abuse the charge animation. Once you set your cavalry to charge something, the animation begins, calculates the charge bonus, and then deals out the corresponding damage onto the enemy unit. Pull them out the moment the animation ends, because by then your horses are useless and caught-up in the dice-roll matrix. Once your cavalry are out, check the line. If your men aren't winning decisively, slam your bolstered general into the same line again and watch it crumble. Your cavalry will be tired, but you've just won the engagement.
Reduce your micro-management in battles to three key tools: Infantry core, archers on support, and general-cavalry. If you're fast, throw in a quirk unit: ninjas, firebomb throwers (my personal favourite because they don't require much micro to use and they affect the enemy's morale), or brawlers (marathon monks/nag' warrior monks). Whatever your quirk unit is, min-max it with encampment and skill tree buffs. Otherwise, sorry, but you've wasted time and money acquiring it for the roster. If you're building an army you can't field in three turns, you're fucked.
Economy, economy, economy. Get it? Sake dens and markets, sake dens and markets. That's money for your army: not for your navy, not for your nation's well-being and happiness - that's why you're building sake dens - money is for your army. (I had feedback that the fastest way to create a stable economy on Shogun 2 was to take more towns. Personally, I think this is a bad idea, because it exposes you to the borders of other clans. More about that later.)
Use your agents. None of them are shit or under-powered or any of the mumblefuck-none-sense people put online when they don't know how to use them. Monks fuck. Walk them through the enemy's territory and past their capital and into their back lines and wololo those bastards into an early revolution. 33% chance is a 1/3 chance, and if the cost of inciting unrest is only 500 gold... I'll take that bet. This fundamentally weakens your enemy and cuts off their supply lines: which causes the A.I.'s diplomacy to go haywire. How can Takeda be trading with Hojo if I just made their border provinces into grey states? That's right, they can't. Break their relationship first, then bribe them to turn on one another. If you've made them hard enough for you, they'll do it. There you go. You just crushed one of the hardest clans without fighting a battle on the open field! See? Monks fuck. Monks can also demoralise the enemy and inspire your troops with morale bonuses. If the enemy stack has no general to recover from this loss, this is deadly. You will win the encounter on morale alone.
Which reminds me: diplomacy, diplomacy, diplomacy. Think it doesn't matter? Actually, I made Hojo destroy Takeda as Oda, and Imagawa-Tokugawa, and then made Kyoto spit on Hattori, and Hatano clash with the Ikko Ikki: all whilst I sat back, lining up my troops. When the time was right, I sent my armies to take the provinces I needed to execute my Kyoto-plan. Thank you, machine-learning.
Have a plan. Choose territories for their perks (+accuracy bonuses, blacksmiths, resources, gold mines, schools and libraries), not for their availability. If you overextend... Good luck. Just be aware you can't take back coming into contact with the other clans. The more isolationist you are about your affairs, the better.
Your borders are your worse nightmare. Connect with too many clans too quickly and you enter the death-brawl of which there's no escape. Enjoy your war of attrition. Tzu states that there is no instance of a nation benefiting from extended period of war, and yours won't either. Your economy will be shitting bricks by turn fifteen and you'll be playing in -134 income hell. The game isn't fun this way. It isn't fun because you thrust your fist out into the unknown and hell answered back.
Back to agents: Ninja. Ninja fuck harder than anyone's ever fucked. They can redirect enemies and make them go crying home to baba. Sabotage everything in sight during the first few turns of their lifespan. But do not sabotage things belonging to the clans you want to like you, because if you fail, and you will, -20 or even -40 to diplomatic relations. -40 will convince most clans that you're a threat and that you need wiping off the map. Dump points into assassination. Protect your ninja with +5%/10% chances to escape unharmed if they fail in their attempts, and take every +1 to assassination that RNG sweetly offers. Take 33% chances on enemy Daimyo. I've wounded the Oda more times than I can count with these odds and sent his army running back home. And remember, on Legendary, nothing can be taken back. Every attempt might be your agent's last: get used to it. I see a lot of people saying ninja are 'too expensive to maintain'. But what else are you spending money on other than recruiting ashigaru and upgrading vital infrastructure? ... Right? Nothing. People who say this can't run a half-decent economy because they're too busy building archery dojos instead of sake dens.
Metsuke are too expensive to maintain, admittedly. They should not be used to bribe, unless you're doing an 'all-out Metsuke offensive.' By this I mean using Metsuke instead of Ninja to send armies back at the A.I, badminton-style. But personally, I don't see this as cost effective. Instead, Metsuke should be used to spy on strategic choke points to watch out for enemy agents, and to bolster the profitability of rice dens. Did you know that if you put Metsuke into provinces with markets, that the growth and economy of those provinces goes up? They can also protect your Daimyo or top-tier generals from being assassinated by enemy Ninja; and I highly recommend putting one in each of your core armies. Trust me: it sucks to lose your five-star general to a suspicious death on turn 60, especially when the game auto-saves at the beginning of each turn. Bye-bye Stand and Fight. Bye-bye Ashigaru Commander. Farewell Night Attack. Hello sadness.
For Sieges, have ranged superiority from the off-set if you're the attacker. Six bow ashigaru will melt most armies inside of their fort. On my Chōkosabe play-through, each unit had 200+ kills by the end of the siege. I do not find siege battles intimidating when I know I'm coming in with more archers than the opposing army, because I can and will surround them, can and will out-trade them, and then when they're weak and tired from trying to avoid my arrows, that's when I send my yari ashigaru in to take advantage of their failing strength. One unit of bomb throwers on the gate of your choice will blow it to shreds and allow spear-wall after spear-wall to penetrate their defences. The A.I. will blob the gate: perfect, that allows your remaining archers to menace them. If the enemy army has bow samurai, do not attack the wall they're stationed at. You will get fucked because the A.I's bow samurai is always god-tier, and yours fling kaka in comparison until they're high ranked. Instead, place an infantry reserve unit just out of range of that wall, and the A.I. will station most of their archers at it and... wait, allowing you to haemorrhage the fort from an opposing angle. Don't bother moving the reserve unit into range of the enemy archers, not necessary, they'll stay there as long as you stare back at them menacingly. Target priority is: generals, infantry, bows. If you kill them off in that order, you can afford to get impatient and rush the walls, because bows can't stop yari ashigaru from getting in. Finally, if your bomb throwers have spare ammo, launch it at any stubborn archers manning the walls: they will quickly get the point and relocate elsewhere.
Toppeth-Tippeth: Bomb throwers can follow your yari ashigaru through the main gate, and toss bombs into the enemy's ranks over the heads of your infantry. I really didn't think this would work when I first tried it, because I figured the narrowness of the gate would cause my bomb throwers to report their line of sight as 'blocked': rendering them useless. Turns out no, actually, they're pretty happy to line themselves up on the ramp, swing their grenades, and launch them into the enemy blob. Yes, you will lose men: bah. But the enemy's morale will break long before you run out of reserves, especially with all their generals dead already. It's also fun as fuck. Boom... boom... boom.
Katana infantry fuck, but only under the right circumstances. I've found having one or two in reserve to be really advantageous. They are absolutely class for flanking or going in with the second wave during sieges. Fresh and eager, and up against tired defenders, they will melt. But inspired? They will fuck on everything. Best of all, katana infantry fight to the last man (because bushidō), and because the A.I. loves to field spears, they always have the advantage. The only drawback is that they're expensive to maintain, and therefore they should only be used this way in the early to mid game, if at all. Lastly, they're dumb-good in siege defences. Put them on the walls, away from the enemy archers, and whoever's coming up isn't coming up for long. I never have to worry about the walls I've assigned my katana to. They're just too good at holding the battlements due to their superior melee stats.
Once your armies have been fielded, hold an economy of around 500/1000 koku. If you don't use it, this will just keep adding to your war chest. It's not a lot, but in three or four turns you will accumulate enough wealth to put together an ashigaru army in a pinch, or bribe an ally to join a war. \Smacks lips.* Nice.*
You can body block stacks from entering your territories and delay them for at least three turns before they can reach your capital. The way you do this is by taking a single unit of yari ashigaru, placing it on a choke point on the campaign map, and then when the enemy is forced to attack it, you retreat. And then you play this game with the enemy's avatar until you've rallied your forces. You can also do this by inciting a rebellion stack. This is a big dick move, and has saved my ass many'a time. If you also have Ninja, you're laughing. It'll be five turns before the enemy can get to you. In five turns I can throw an expendable army at them from the god-damn barracks.
In field battles, do not use all your units at once. By this, I mean don't commit everything to one assault. Put four ashi' up to take the enemy charge. Flank with two ashi' on either side. Move your archers around. Harry them with your cavalry. And if you have samurai, use them to take out the key players. Commit in units, not in bulk. Yes, your main line will be chewed apart while you adjust, but who cares? You can recruit two/three ashigaru next turn. Expend the expendable, preserve your veterans. If your initial commitment breaks and surrenders... good! Now the enemy has to reform and turn around: usually into a line of no-dachi. Banzaiii!!!
If your objective is to win every battle with no casualties, start praying. Most sieges on Legendary end up in most of my army routed, and only my generals and a single unit of tired yari ashigaru left, with all my archers either out of ammo, or about to be. I always lose two units to critical losses, but then I can always recruit them back next turn. The rest of my army limps back to rejoin me another day, despite taking severe losses from enemy archers/the gate. Game's pretty forgiving when you commit to siege battles, use that to your advantage.
You can force the enemy to attack your main army by putting it on a choke-point on the campaign map. The A.I. will have to come through you to get what it wants. Sadly, the A.I. can also be a huge puss', calculate unfavourable odds, and never bother to attack you as you straddle the border to your territory like an asshole, forever. In this case, either go into ambush stance, or make a play. Defensive battles in the field are preferable to attacking, always. The A.I. will come to you, and you can choose anywhere on the map to make your stand. This leads to easy and fun battles, even on legendary, where you can set-up your men in ranks on hills, between valleys, in villages, and around bridges. Battles where you're on the attack always end the same way: by baiting and switching, which is not fun (... to me.)
I was wrong in my previous iteration of this guide about Katana Cavalry — Katana Cavalry do fuck on single player. They're absolute killing machines, actually. Not a game goes by where my Katana Cavalry don't rack up 400+ kills each. The way this is achieved is by waiting until all enemy units are engaged, then flanking with your cavalry. After that, leave them in. They are not charge units. They are sure, steady killers. Let them have their fun. Only pull them out if they're directly engaged by spears. The best upgrade you can give them is +2 armour, also.
Light Cavalry should always be your top killers on the field in the early-mid game. If you're not leaving those early battles with 200-300 kills per Light Cavalry unit, you're doing something wrong. Adjust your game accordingly.
Bow samurai are great on castle walls, but questionable in the field. I'd rather have two units of bow ashigaru any day of the week.
Yari Samurai are okay, but I always disband them on turn 1, then use the additional income to recruit other, cheaper spears. The enemy cavalry runs at your line during deployment, they're so dumb. Don't waste money on fielding a unit that's built to counter something that tends to counter itself.
For extra income, you can sell military access, but do so strategically. On average, I can sell 5 turns for 500-750. 10 turns for 1250-1500. And 20 turns for 3000 koku++ upwards. I do this when I want to upgrade essential infrastructure, like gold mines. But you must be wary of doing this on legendary, as you create a dialogue with potential enemies that wraps you up in red tape should you decide to attack them before the peace-bond made between you runs out. And sometimes it can take a very long time for this to happen (30+ turns if you settle for a 20 turn deal). This is huge because if you decide to attack before the timer runs out, then you'll suffer from diplomacy penalties with all the other clans you've come into contact with so far. On some campaigns, this can really hurt you. e.g. Piss off the Hojo as Oda, and Takeda will march on you early (because he's programmed to want your territory). That's not good, really not good. Likewise, as Shimazu you may want Tachibana or Chōkosabe on your side to buffer the northern clans. Well, not if you go cheesing Ito and betraying alliances with the Otomo. If you act the prick on legendary, you're asking for trouble. If your diplomacy window reads hostile, hostile, hostile, and you're not the Ikko-Ikki or a Christian clan, then you're doing something wrong. The game sets you up with natural enemies and natural allies, but you can break the mechanics and side with clans who're designed to inherently hate you, as long as you keep their attention fixed elsewhere via correct use of military access. Beware, selling military access to aggressive clans will cause them to come into your territory and devour your vassals, forcing you to make awkward decisions; and I'm certain you didn't just sell Date military access so that he could come and cause issues for you left and right: so, better to avoid this altogether. Be cautious about the fronts you're engaging with, TL;DR.
Vassals are worthless, even as buffers. You can't sell them military access and most of the time you can't encourage them to wage war, and if they can't be depended on as allies, then they're useless as allies. And they will betray you, they'll betray you because the game makes it impossible to keep them happy because you're demanding military access from them in return for protection, when they should be the ones protecting you. Only they don't because they're fucking dumb and can't be coerced into attacking who you want them to attack. So, don't take the settlements you don't need, and occupy them peacefully if you do.
Which brings me to ONAH! ... Honor is very important (unless you're the Ikkō-ikki or the Ōtomo). Low honor causes rebellions in your back lines. Low honor means clans hate you :-). Low honor makes it so that when you take a new city, the new city will whine turn after turn unless you have a general with the '-6 to resistance' trait, really good Metsuke, or a spare army to shut them up. (Psst. Recruiting men just to put down rebellions means less koku and negative economic growth.) This game literally makes you pay for your mistakes. There aren't many clans that can afford to be honour-less on legendary, not unless you want stacks of pissed-off armies marching into your territory every couple of years. Did you know that if you gift 150 koku to your super-powered feudal overlords, you get +3 to your diplomatic relations with them? Do this every other turn and you'll have +20 in no time. +20 is enough to dissuade them from attacking you: as long you have an active trade deal going and are giving them plenty of military access.
Be in it for the long game. Let others weaken your enemies for you, it is not so good to wage war before you are sure that you have the advantage.
Special shout-out to these units for being worth the koku: Yari Ashigaru (150+ kills on average). Bow Ashigaru (100+ kills on average). Naginata Warrior Monks (250+ kills on average), Katana Cavalry (350+ kills on average), Katana Infantry (200+ kills on average), Kisho Ninja (150+ kills on average). Tadakatsu's Tetsubo Warriors (200+ kills on average).
On Siege Defence, Matchlock Ashigaru are God.
Have fun. Legendary's great because it is fast-paced and consistent. You'll rarely have more than a couple years of peace, enjoy it while it lasts.
One last battle tip: use the terrain. Even a slight incline gives your ashigaru an advantage. A slight incline for the enemy marks your death. Zoom in, check where you are actually positioning your forces, and do not make the mistake of fighting on fatal ground. The reason why I lose so many armies to inferior opponents is because I think the A.I. is ha-ha dumb. It is ha-ha dumb. But it is also committed to attacking. If you march onto unfavourable ground, and you allow the enemy to attack you on it: his strategy is superior. Watch as your lines break. Then zoom in afterwards and realise: you just marched your entire army onto some really weird and obnoxious inclines that made holding the line difficult for your ashigaru. Woopsy. 'Woopsy' on legendary could cost you the campaign.
Good luck, my dudes. Great game +10 years on, and still one of my all time favourites!!! Wahaha!

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Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Questions Regarding Remainder of Online Blackjack Quest

Hello, and happy holidays to you all. Thanks for your time in reading/responding to this thread.
To start, I enjoy playing very much. My first blackjack session ever @ the Borgata many years ago started with $100 @ $10 min, playing full tables and some 1v1. My spread was 10 dollar, and 20 dollar, and I played for 6 hours straight and cashed out $600. I would've kept going for probably another 6-10 hours, if my dad didn't pull me off the table because it was time to go back home.
That was my mid 20s, I turned 31 in September. I investigating counting a little years back, learning hi lo +1 0 -1 level I count, but never pursued it to this degree presently, and definitely what I knew back then was basically the equivalent of nil. Any money I wagered back then was purely gambling and I think I was getting high on it, even losing money all the time the uncertainty effect gets produced regardless of outcome.
I've been teaching myself computer science since COVID hit in march; I've basically been on a year long vacation, long overdue. I worked for 7 years straight without one for various companies after graduating from college in 2012 with degree in Psych. So, I started with SQL, which unlocked mental barriers to understanding computer science, programming theory, and its applications. Then I taught myself Python syntax. Last, its application I chose is data science, which makes sense because my job history is in database administration, I get off on calculating numbers and doing statistical analyses, and lastly, my educational background is in human behavior. Data science encompasses all those areas and its a trip bros! I'm very excited to pursue this because my whole life, I never had a career choice and as a result goal. I will earn more money with my career in computers and data than playing cards. That being said, what remains is an $880 chip stack on my newvegas online account, and an additional 12 weeks of time to myself before re-entering the job world Spring.
I would say, up until this very moment, I never fully understood probability, wagering, EV, or gambling in general, and it's only what I've learned about computer science, programming, and statistics that reversed that misunderstanding. Here's another thanks to this resource and to your responses/time.
Before moving forward, some additional points to keep in mind, just so that answers to my questions can be direct :-), hoping to save everyone time:
The rules: 8 deck shoe cut in half dead center. $10 -$100 max. 7 seats. DAS. Dealer stay on soft 17. Oh yeah, and beautiful West Russian dealers (the girls obviously, I am male ty).
The goal: According to Colin on BJapprenticeship.com, a $5,000 bankroll for Blackjack offers a 1.00 % risk of ruin playing @ $10.00 game. I interpret this to mean, with a 5k bankroll, a player can enjoy the game only worrying about losing all his bankroll 1% of the time. Correct me if I'm wrong there. So, if on the off chance I do not lose, and grind all the way up to at least $5,000, my goal of investing my time and mental energy to playing on this Online Table is to earn 5k in winnings, and then move on to using those funds on Live Real Table Quest (I am in NYC, USA). In my opinion this is a very modest expectation, and it would be hard but it is not impossible. And I really enjoy playing blackjack and especially counting as accurately as I do now so, it is not a waste of time. But that is the goal and it is clear.
The rollover: I bought my chip stack online 12/23. The rollover requirement is 18025 points, but if you make it, get to keep the entire thing whatever it is. Based on the numbers, if I did it right, if I managed to get to 5k, I'll have gotten enough points, or at least close to. And with 5k meeting the requirement at that point would be easy and very fun. Right now because I'm at the start it's an enjoyable grind with a large chance of busting. After 11 hours of play, I've accumulated ~ 1k points, having played 584 hands, yielding a 48.6% win rate, including push. So it's probably closer to where I'm at on the app having played ~ 20k hands, 43%.
Assumptions: 1.) The odds are strongly against me. 2.) I'm probably gonna lose. 3. ) Although the rules are poor, the game is fair (the shuffles, the dealers, etc.). 4.) This is, definitively, my last attempt at fulfilling this venture. The reason is not to get rich, or to win big, or to become an overnight millionaire, none of that illusory, delusional bullshit. I like playing; I think I've gathered enough ammo in my Arsenal to try and beat this particular instance of Blackjack (the rules, online, etc) with a modest win. However, I most certainly do not expect to, and will not make any further attempts to again. Why? There's no point haha. Just see above (for myself if I need reminding). 5.) There's no rush. I'm willing to just min bet all the way to 5k, however long it takes, but the advantage does change sometimes so, get to that. But yeah there's no rush and I'm trying to properly schedule my playing time so that a.) it doesn't interfere with more important shit and b.) if I end up losing, won't lose sleep over it.
Loss Streaks
In the 12 hours half a day I logged so far, there were 9 sessions played, averaging 90 minutes per session. Of those 9, especially in the beginning, the House would be getting these Win streaks of minimum 4 sometimes 5, all the way up to a maximum of 12, with one possibly 2 wins for the player in that haystack.
So check this out for example in my first session, the first deck or so was playable (even W/L ratio), but then look at this pattern: 'L-L-L-L-W-L-L-L-L-L'. If I was just betting 10 on each hand there, that's 100 gone pretty quickly, without being able to do anything about it. I remember the types of hands these are too; little ones (2-6) that successfully draw to hi hands and do not bust, the 3 card especially. Also, according to my notes, most of the time the true counts in these shoes are bad (negative). In the above example, that one needle Win has to have a wide enough spread to least account for half of the losses in this streak. Or, do I just continue to bet against the true edge, ALWAYS, regardless of how much money I'm losing, and not bet more to chase the annoying streak of loss?
Betting the edge
The streaks I mentioned above, as far as I'm concerned, are the norm moving forward. I don't mind; not complaining, in fact, I enjoy the challenge. I've embraced Buddhist philosophy recently, and the journey is what matters. I would not be investing additional time into this venture if I would not enjoy the ride, win or lose. But because of this level of difficulty, added to the fact that the edge rarely goes beyond 1% in either direction, I came to the conclusion that I should be betting minimum probably almost all the time, and throwing in my 'raises' if you will maybe only 2-3 times per shoe.
What's happening is, check this example out in session 7. This one lasted 2.5 hours, and the notes are pretty bad, sounds like I was having a lousy time. It says that I was in a streak during the first 2 decks, this one: 'L-L-L-L-L-L-W-L' and then it picked up. TC in this series was +1, it was either a little one drawing to 20, or a 20 in the hole each time. I had already lost half my stack at that point because I was betting double each hand and losing, trying to get it back; but those increased bets were far greater than should have been given the TC is only +1. I had 300 left, bet 125, caught 11 vs 5, and doubled. It was scary, but it held. Now the thing is, did it have to be scary? The same things would've happened if the bet was lower, closer to what the edge actually was instead of a gross over bet, and would that thus reduce the risk of ruin in that instance considerably? If so, I should just sit back and not worry so much about the dollar value of these bets because at the end of the day, it's just a chip stack because of the wagering requirement anyway.
For example, is it better in that series, losing, during a TC of +1, to just keep the bets at you know, 1-2 units on top for your raise? Let's say by some miracle, the TC went up to +3.5. Would my 125 then actually be warranted? Like let's say I get home later, take care of my shit, and fire up a 2-3 hour session. Lets say the first 3 decks I play are loss series like above, but the TC is +.5 - +1. Let's say my 2 unit raise is 25, and my 3 unit raise is 50. Is it more appropriate to play 25s and 50s, even if I lose 6 of them in a row before winning one, than to martingale the entire stack to break even? It's really, how to navigate through loss streaks to get to the win streaks, and losing absolute minimum doing so?
Scheduling
24 hours in a day.
Food/exercise/hygeine in the morning = 2 hours
Work = 4 hours
Lunch = 1 hour
Work = 4 hours
Dinner = 1 hour
Free time = 6 hours
Sleep = 8 hours
Pleasure is as important as abstinence. Balance MUST be achieved to live comfortably, with purpose, in my opinion. The simplest solution is creating a daily schedule and adhering to it, ALWAYS. My way didn't and doesn't work, the hedonistic way, twanging the vagus nerve at the sacrifice of everything else. So, before I sit down again, I want to have a clear schedule carved out. This ensures that, if I lose my money because of bad luck, or a mistake, I won't lose sleep over it. The blackjack playing will happen at the very end of the day, the 2nd to last activity before sleep, the last activity being reading of miscellaneous materials of interest.
That leaves me with 6 hours of time that I can spend doing whatever I want, without having to worry about it. I'll have consumed 3,000 calories, consumed new knowledge, and be able to play at max capacity. What is the strongest approach? To play time? To play a number of shoes? To play a number of hands?
This answer should not be based on a numerical value, because there is no rush, and there is time allocated to not go bust, which comes down to extremely bad luck possibly but more making a mistake, in betting especially. Also, what about stop limits? Perhaps play to a certain win limit, or a loss limit? I don't need to necessarily lose everything at once, do I? Because there's no rush, my bills are paid, im feeding myself, and I'm playing this 'money' as a chip stack and until I reach 5,000 they are only chips. Without any chips, I can't play online ever again.
That should be everything, these are really the only issues I'm experiencing in this particular game.
THANK YOU FOR READING! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, to 2021!

The Importance of Being Candid: On China’s Relationship with the Rest of the World

https://policyexchange.org.uk/pxevents/on-chinas-relationship-with-the-rest-of-the-world/?fbclid=IwAR2W2jM0CQXW-b5AmRCY9uTq6kPiwLrn7Ygy43Nl7_HnBaRkgUqOsUZEB6k

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCM8szICMpc&feature=emb_title&ab_channel=PolicyExchangeUK
The Colin Cramphorn Memorial Lecture (I)
The Importance of Being Candid: On China’s Relationship with the Rest of the World
by
Matthew Pottinger
Deputy National Security Advisor to the President of the United States
Matthew Pottinger is Assistant to the President and US Deputy National Security Advisor. Mr. Pottinger served as the Senior Director for Asia since the start of the Trump Administration in January 2017. In that role, Mr. Pottinger advised the President on Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania, and coordinated U.S. policy for the region.
Before joining the National Security Council staff, Mr. Pottinger ran Asia research at a New York-based investment firm and, prior to that, was the founder of a consultancy serving American investors in East Asia. Mr. Pottinger served as a U.S. Marine, with active duty in Japan and three combat deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, followed by reserve duty at the Pentagon and the Defense Intelligence Agency. Prior to military service, Mr. Pottinger lived and worked in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and China from 1997-2005, reporting for Reuters and The Wall Street Journal. He is fluent in Mandarin.
INTRODUCTION
DEAN GODSON: Good afternoon, my name is Dean Godson, I’m Director of Policy Exchange, I have the privilege, pleasure of being your host for this 9th Colin Cramphorn Memorial Lecture. As many of you will know and remember, Colin was the much-loved Chief Constable of West Yorkshire at the time of the 7/7 bombings, the last Deputy Chief Constable of the Royal Ulster Constabulary and first Acting Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland. He was taken from us tragically early by cancer, still remembered with much fondness. We’re delighted that his widow, Lynn, is here with us today online and with other members of the family. I know you will all wish to, on behalf of everyone here, to wish them all the very best and to thank them for continuing to be patrons of this lecture which would have, I know, meant so much to Colin.
As I say, this is the 9th such lecture and our guest of honour today, our keynoter, Matt Pottinger is Deputy National Security Advisor to the President of the United States. He was previously a distinguished journalist with the Wall Street Journal and then joined the US Marine Corps and won combat decorations for his service in Iraq and Afghanistan. He’s one of the leading authorities in the US government on China and that is why uniquely today we are innovating today here at Policy Exchange because as a more than fluent Mandarin speaker, Matt’s address today will be delivered in Mandarin for the sake of audiences across the world and indicating his belief that China is not defined solely by the People’s Republic of China and its representatives, that there is a wider engagement to be had with audiences across the world, Mandarin speaking and others, so good evening to anyone coming in from the Indo Pacific region and China in particular, good morning to all of you in Washington.
Matt, as I say, will make his remarks first in Mandarin and we’ll then open the floor to questions for 35 minutes or so of questions. As I say, we are delighted to be doing this here at Policy Exchange with the importance of this subject of the wider Indo Pacific region and China in particular. We have our own Indo Pacific Commission, chaired by former Canadian Prime Minister Steven Harper, which will be publishing in the near future its findings and it work. Also, because of the particular importance of this subject and because of the proximity to the US Presidential election, we are having actually two Cramphorn Memorial Lectures in close succession, one obviously the one today by Matt Pottinger and the other next week by Dr Kurt Campbell of the Asia Group, one of the leading authorities on Asia from the last Democratic administration of Barack Obama, of particular significance because people are increasingly aware in this country that in an era of polarisation in America, the area of the Indo Pacific and China is one subject where discussion and even a measure of consensus is still possible in the United States. So, thank you to Matt Pottinger for honouring us in this way, we look forward to hearing your unique address and insights and then open to wider discussion, thank you Matt.
SPEECH TRANSCRIPTION
I’d like to thank Dean Godson and Policy Exchange for inviting me to deliver the ninth annual Colin Cramphorn lecture. We all look forward to a time when we can gather again in person for events like this. With new vaccines and therapeutics on the near horizon, I’m optimistic that day will soon arrive. In the meantime, let’s pretend we’re at the Red Lion pub and enjoy this convivial, trans-Atlantic video conference between Westminster and the White House. I’m betting on a lively discussion following my set remarks.
As most of you know, England and America are two countries separated by a common language. In order to bridge that divide, I’ve decided to give my remarks in Mandarin.
Truth be told, Dean Godson asked me to bust out my Chinese for the sake of higher ratings. Dean knew that a video of an earlier speech I delivered in Mandarin, about China’s May Fourth movement, was viewed more than one million times. Dean may have also known that a subsequent video I recorded in English for the Ronald Reagan Institute was, by contrast, barely noticed by even my own staff.
Naturally, Dean calculated that a white guy speaking in stilted Mandarin would be a bigger box-office draw than whatever message the white guy might be trying to convey.
So be it. As a character on The Simpsons once put it: “Come for the freak, stay for the food.”
Delivering these remarks in Mandarin has another benefit: It allows friends in China to join a conversation that is taking place with increasing regularity around the globe: A conversation about China’s relationship with the rest of the world.
FOREIGN INTERFERENCE IN HISTORY
But first, a smidgen of history to underscore what’s at stake.
Near the end of the 18th century, across the water and many miles from England, a group of visionary men drew up a constitution. The document they framed was designed to limit the powers of government, assert the rights of the people, and chart a path toward what they hoped would be a lasting democracy.
I’m talking, of course, about… Poland.
“Poland?” you ask. Don’t be embarrassed if 1790s Poland didn’t turn up in your high-school textbooks. Unlike the more famous U.S. Constitution, which was adopted just a few years earlier and still serves as the supreme law of the American republic, the Polish experiment with constitutional government was strangled in its infancy.
The problem was foreign interference. A faction of the Polish nobility felt threatened by the influence they would lose under the new constitution. So they sought Russian help in reestablishing the old order. Catherine the Great seized the opportunity to invade and then partition Poland—she took the east and Prussia took the west.
Then, after defeating a revolt led by Tadeusz Kosciuszko, a Polish military hero of the American Revolution, Russia—along with Prussia and Austria—carried out a final partition of Poland-Lithuania in 1795. The young Commonwealth was erased from the map altogether.
I mention Poland’s failed experiment for two reasons: First, it’s a reminder that democracy, while unrivaled in terms of legitimacy and results, is neither invincible nor inevitable. Second, interference in the affairs of free societies by autocratic regimes is a phenomenon that is waxing, not waning.
To stave off meddling, it never hurts to have favorable geography—a luxury Poland didn’t enjoy. Poland’s 18th Century neighbors were powerful European monarchies. America’s neighbors, by contrast, were the two best friends a fledgling democracy could ever ask for—the Atlantic and the Pacific.
FOREIGN INTERFERENCE IN THE CYBER AGE
But in the cyber age, autocratic governments can concoct disinformation, inject it into the public discourse of nations, and amplify it through self-improving algorithms from the other side of the earth. Are the blessings of oceans and channels sufficient barriers against this sort of meddling?
Not if the citizens of free and sovereign nations yield to complacency. Nations, including democracies, are undergoing the first stage of a real-life “stress test” of their ability to withstand covert, coercive, and corrupt influence by high-tech autocracies.
This may seem odd, because the autocracies are so vastly outnumbered. But they compensate by marshalling the full resources of their states, by learning from one another’s successes and failures, and sometimes by coordinating with one another.
Economic strength isn’t a prerequisite for waging cyber warfare. Thus, we see hackers tasked by Moscow and Tehran attempting to undermine confidence in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. But no regime has more riding on its ability to influence the perceptions, policies and priorities of foreign populations than the Chinese Communist Party.
THE PARTY’S “MAGIC WEAPON”
In truth, we should’ve expected this. The Communist Party’s victory in the Chinese civil war owed less to its combat prowess against superior Nationalist forces than to its ability to infiltrate and manipulate the language, thinking, and actions of its adversaries. This is why the current Party leadership is redoubling its emphasis on “United Front” work.
The defining feature of United Front work is that it’s not transparent. The clue is in the name.
China’s United Front Work system is a gigantic government function with no analogue in democracies. China’s leaders call it a “magic weapon,” and the Party’s 90 million members are required to support its activities. While the system has many branches, the United Front Work Department alone has four times as many cadres as the U.S. State Department has foreign-service officers. But instead of practicing diplomacy with foreign governments—the Chinese foreign ministry handles that—the United Front gathers intelligence about, and works to influence, private citizens overseas. The focus is on foreign elites and the organizations they run. Think of a United Front worker as a cross between an intelligence collector, a propagandist, and a psychologist.
I know that sounds like the opening line to a joke. But United Front work is serious business, and it affects you and me. After all, the raw material for psychologists is data about their patients. The Party is compiling digital dossiers on millions of foreign citizens around the world. The exposure last month of a Chinese database on at least 2.4 million people around the world—including many of us on this call—speaks to the Party’s sheer ambition to wed traditional Leninist techniques with powerful new tools of digital surveillance.
The company building these dossiers, Shenzhen Zhenhua Data Information Technology Co, supports what its CEO reportedly calls “psychological warfare.” Zhenhua harvests and organizes public and private data about us for exploitation by its clients, which are organs of the Chinese security apparatus, according to its website.
The dossiers Zhenhua is compiling include people in virtually every country on earth, no matter how small. They include members of royal families and members of parliament, judges and clerks, tech mavens and budding entrepreneurs, four-star admirals and the crewmembers of warships, professors and think-tankers, and national and local officials. They also include children, who are fair game under Beijing’s rules of political warfare. No one is too prominent or too obscure.
Zhenhua isn’t a particularly large or sophisticated actor in the United Front world. It may even be acting opportunistically, because it thinks the Party will reward it. Far more powerful tech firms, including famous Chinese app developers, play a much bigger role in this kind of work.
Assembling dossiers has always been a feature of Leninist regimes. The material is used now, as before, to influence and intimidate, reward and blackmail, flatter and humiliate, divide and conquer. What’s new is how easy we’ve made it for autocrats to accumulate so much intimate data about ourselves—even people who’ve never set foot in China. We leave our intellectual property, our official documents, and our private lives on the table like open books. The smart phones we use all day to chat, search, buy, view, bank, navigate, network, worship and confide make our thoughts and actions as plain to cyber spooks as the plumes of exhaust from a vintage double-decker bus.
The Chinese Communist Party has reorganized its national strategy around harnessing that digital exhaust to expand the Party’s power and reach.
THE PARTY’S GOALS
But what’s the ultimate point of all the data collection and exploitation? What is Beijing trying to influence us to do? The Party’s goal, in short, is to co-opt or bully people—and even nations—into a particular frame of mind that’s conducive to Beijing’s grand ambitions. It’s a paradoxical mindset—a state of cognitive dissonance that is at once credulous and fearful, complacent and defeatist. It’s a mindset that on Monday says “It’s too early to say whether Beijing poses a threat,” and by Friday says “They’re a threat, all right, but it’s too late to do anything about it now.” To be coaxed into such a mindset is to be seduced into submission—like taking the “blue pill” in The Matrix.
How does Beijing do it? This is where United Front propaganda and psychology come into play. The Party’s overseas propaganda has two consistent themes: “We own the future, so make your adjustments now.” And: “We’re just like you, so try not to worry.” Together, these assertions form the elaborate con at the heart of all Leninist movements.
The Kiwi scholar Anne-Marie Brady, a pioneer in sussing out United Front ploys, points to the Party’s global campaigns—“One Belt, One Road” and the “Community of Common Destiny for Mankind”—as classic specimens of the genre.
Brady calls United Front work a “tool to corrode and corrupt our political system, to weaken and divide us against each other, to erode the critical voice of our media, and turn our elites into clients of the Chinese Communist Party, their mouths stuffed with cash.”
The con doesn’t always work, of course. Facts sometimes get in the way. The profound waste and corruption of many One Belt, One Road projects is an example. When the con doesn’t induce acquiescence, the Party often resorts to intimidation and repression.
Take Hong Kong, where demonstrators took to the streets by the millions last year to protest Beijing’s efforts to undermine Hong Kong’s rule of law. If “socialism with Chinese characteristics” was the future, the demonstrators seemed to prefer staying firmly in the present.
So Beijing resorted to Plan B. It demolished Deng Xiaoping’s “One Country, Two Systems” framework and deprived Hong Kong of the autonomy that made it the most spectacular city in Asia.
HOW WE DEFEND OURSELVES
None of this is reason for panic, mind you. It’s true the West is going through one of its periodic spells of self-doubt, when extreme political creeds surface on the left and the right, and some ideas are so foolish that, to paraphrase George Orwell, only an intellectual could believe them. So let’s pull up our socks and get back to common sense.
On the foreign policy front, President Trump has ingrained two principles worth sharing here, because they’re designed to preserve our sovereignty, promote stability, and reduce miscalculation. They are reciprocity and candor.
Reciprocity is the straightforward idea that when a country injures your interests, you return the favor. It is eminently reasonable and readily understood, including by would-be aggressors. It’s an inherently defensive approach, rooted in notions of fair play and deterrence.
Candor is the idea that democracies are safest when we speak honestly and publicly about and to our friends, our adversaries, and ourselves. This can take some getting used to. When President Reagan was preparing to give a speech in Berlin, several of his staff tried desperately to get him to remove a phrase they found embarrassing and needlessly provocative. Luckily, President Reagan went with his gut, and delivered the most famous line of his presidency: “Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.”
Some will argue that confrontational rhetoric turns countries into enemies. This old chestnut of the U.S. diplomatic corps masquerades as humble policy, but is in fact quite arrogant because it presumes nations act primarily in reaction to whatever the United States says or does.
Clever adversaries use such thinking against us. By portraying truth-telling as an act of belligerence, autocrats try to badger democracies into silence—and often succeed. “This is the first and most important defeat free nations can ever suffer,” President Reagan said at Guildhall. “When free peoples cease telling the truth about and to their adversaries, they cease telling the truth to themselves.” Public candor actually promotes peace by reducing the space for strategic blunders.
Public candor applies to our internal affairs, too. There can be no double standard.
When Louis Armstrong performed in the Soviet Union as a cultural ambassador of the State Department, he spoke frankly about racial bigotry in the United States. When Reagan famously referred to the Soviet Union as an “Evil Empire,” he explored America’s own “legacy of evil”—including anti-Semitism and slavery—in the very same speech.
XINJIANG
So it is in a spirit of friendship, reflection, and, yes, candor, that I ask friends in China to research the truth about your government’s policies toward the Uyghur people and other religious minorities. Ask yourselves why the editors of The Economist, in a cover article this week, called those policies “a crime against humanity” and “the most extensive violation in the world today of the principle that individuals have a right to liberty and dignity simply because they are people.”
As a Marine who spent three combat deployments fighting terrorists, I can tell you that what is taking place in Xinjiang bears no resemblance whatsoever to an ethical counter-terrorism strategy. Such abuses are what the Chinese diplomat P.C. Chang was trying to prevent when he helped draft the 1948 United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights. There is no credible justification I can find in Chinese philosophy, religion, or moral law for the concentration camps inside your borders.
WHAT EVIL FEARS MOST
Colin Cramphorn, for whom this lecture is named, was Chief Constable of West Yorkshire before his death from cancer in 2006. Colin worked the most notorious terrorism cases in British history, from the Omagh car-bombing to the London suicide attacks of 2005. When your day job is to confront evil, it’s hard to avoid dwelling at night on big questions about the human heart. Colin, a voracious and varied reader, sometimes consulted the writings of C.S. Lewis.
I’m told he found particular solace in The Screwtape Letters—Lewis’s brilliantly imagined monologue of a demon toiling in Satan’s bureaucracy. (John Cleese recorded a pitch-perfect rendition of the book a few decades ago, by the way. It’s on YouTube. I’m told Andy Serkis has recorded a version that gives Cleese a run for his money.)
“The safest road to Hell,” old Screwtape advises his nephew, “is the gradual one—the gentle slope, soft underfoot, without sudden turnings, without milestones, without signposts.”
I suspect Colin drew hope and courage from the knowledge that evil, properly identified and exposed, is frail—even farcical. And that calling it out in public—giving it “signposts”—inoculates us against temptation and liberates us from fear. As my friend Tony Dolan told me: “The great paradox of institutionalized evil is that it can be enormously powerful but also enormously fragile. Thus, it is compulsively aggressive and ultimately self-destructive. It senses its own moral absurdity. It knows it is a raft on a sea of ontological good.”
“What evil fears most is the publicly spoken truth.”
So speak up, everyone. And raise a glass tonight to the good constable Colin Cramphorn and to like-minded public servants the world over. They have our love and our thanks.
QUESTION AND ANSWER
DEAN GODSON: Matt, thank you for a truly brilliant and memorable address. You have now very kindly agreed to answer questions. Just two items of protocol here, please put your virtual hands up and please also look into the camera when you’re speaking because of the exigencies of the virtual event. The final house rule that all of you will be aware of, no question too outrageous, you just have to state your name and organisation before pronouncing. David Brunston, if you can just restate for the record your name and organisation, you wanted to ask a question. David, we can’t hear you. A number of people have been texting in to me, some of them wanted to be asked anonymously, Matt, so if I can use Chairman’s privilege to ask on their behalf. A little more detail, is the strategy, the CCP strategy of wolf diplomacy, is it too far gone now? Could you say more in a bit more detail, they ask, what in your view, the US administration’s perspective, the counter measures should be?
MATT POTTINGER: Dean, thanks so much. You know, I think in a way the wolf warrior diplomacy is an expression of a moment of a kind of desperate opportunism. In a sense, I think as many countries have caught on to the scope of Beijing’s ambitions and have started to push back where they think or the community of nations think they go too far or are damaging to countries sovereignty or interests. I think the process of pushing back has led to a bit of a dropping of the fig leaf, if you will, and this more combative approach to diplomacy, it’s a more coercive approach to diplomacy so I think that what all countries need to do – and this is for the sake of stability by the way, this is in the interest of re-establishing a kind of equilibrium and more constructive, results-oriented relationship between China and the community of nations. I think the two ideas that I talked about in the speech and that are central to President Trump’s approach, the reciprocity but also the candour, will help go quite some way in restoring that balance.
DEAN GODSON: Brilliant, thank you and I’ve been asked to ask the question on behalf of David Brunston of Reuters and the question he wants to ask is how would you expect US policy under a second Trump administration to evolve and how it would differ from a policy that the Biden administration might pursue?
MATT POTTINGER: Yes, so people advising Vice President Biden talk about what he thinks a good policy would be but in terms of President Trump’s approach, I think first you have to take stock of the fact that there is a new consensus and the forging of that new consensus about China is something that has happened under President Trump’s watch, it is in no small part because of the policies that he’s taken and the result has been that it has actually, as you alluded to in the introductory remarks, Dean, it’s a bipartisan, it’s a whole of society consensus and as you read polls popping up all over the world, you see that it’s not just an American consensus anymore either. We’ve led that consensus, that’s been President Trump’s hallmark, probably the most key legacy and shift in American foreign policy in quite some time but there are a lot of other countries that are now starting to, at a minimum, share a very similar consensus on the diagnosis of what the problem is and increasingly, a lot of countries, our European allies, allies across the Indo Pacific region and beyond, who are exploring and in some cases taking similar steps to those that President Trump has advocated for.
DEAN GODSON: Thank you. The next question is from the Right Honourable Lord Mandelson, former Deputy Prime Minister and European Commissioner. Peter, your question if you can come in.
PETER MANDELSON: Dean, thank you very much indeed and I hope you can hear me.
DEAN GODSON: Loud and clear.
RT HON LORD MANDELSON: I have been rather impressed by Matt Pottinger’s lecture and I find myself actually a supporter of both reciprocity and candour and as somebody who, when I was Trade Commissioner, was equally accused of using confrontational rhetoric towards China when I described them as a trade juggernaut out of control, I can see its usefulness. Can I ask though this question to Mr Pottinger? For China in a sense to lose, the West has to win and the West has not been winning during the last four years. With humility and self-criticism, could Mr Pottinger explain to us why he thinks the West has not been strengthened in its coherence and its unity during the last four years and why we have been less able to act in a joined-up way towards China and other international questions than we have during other periods since the Second World War?
DEAN GODSON: Thank you. Matt.
MATT POTTINGER: Thank you, that’s a great question and a great thoughtful prelude to the question as well, thank you. Look, President Trump came in following what I believe and certainly the people who elected him believed was a lengthy period of failure in American foreign policy and really more of a failure of broader foreign policy in the West. We got in lengthy wars under sort of a I think a misimpression that we would be able to inject democracy into far corners of the earth by the barrel of a gun, those have been enormously costly. Those are things that really have done damage, I think, to the West.
China’s entry into the WTO and all of the policies, really the assumptions that led to that and I shared those assumptions 20 years ago so I don’t blame or cast aspersions for what was actually very optimistic bold policy taken by the United States and the West to try to help China become more liberal, first economically and then we hoped politically as well but I think we’ve now taken stock of the fact that some of those assumptions were generous but misplaced. In fact, really the high watermark of China’s opening and liberalisation was December 11th 2001, which I think was the date China entered the WTO. After that, all of those reforms that we so eagerly anticipated by bringing China into the WTO, actually flatlined, things started to plateau for about a decade and over the course of the decade that we’ve just concluded, we saw those reforms go into reverse.
We’ve seen a far greater concentration of power in the hands of the state over the economy, over people’s lives and what we’ve learned is that optimistic period, the reform and opening period if you like, was unfortunately an interregnum, it was an interregnum between the totalitarianism of Mao’s rule and a new technologically enhanced totalitarianism under the current leadership and I’ve heard some refer to it as an attempt at so-called exquisite totalitarianism. I think that that’s a good encapsulation of what has now being attempted, this experiment that Beijing is running to see whether or not it can improve on the failed approach of all the other Leninist states of the 20th century by compensating for the failures of those systems through advanced technology and totalitarian surveillance. So, in short, I think this period that you’re referring to that you characterise as a sort of insufficient pulling together of the West, you’ve got to have a little bit of historical perspective that we’re going through a massive change from the post-Cold War era of the last few decades to a new one that takes stock of some of the failures of the last 30 years. Thanks.
DEAN GODSON: Brilliant, thank you. Next, Deborah Haynes, Foreign Editor, Sky News. Deborah, are you coming in?
DEBORAH HAYNES: Hopefully. Hi, thank you very much, thank you for letting me ask a question and thank you for that fascinating presentation. In terms of how you were describing how the United Front is implementing China’s policies, is what we’re seeing now, given that China is this rising power, a kind of a global battle over ideologies? I mean there’s no rule book that says that China has to adopt the rules based system and carry on using it if it’s the predominant power and if that’s the case, could you just spell out what the danger is if liberal democracies, who are far more fractured now than they have been, if they don’t stand together and stand up for the ideologies of free speech and human rights and all the things that we believe in, that we will see this big global division between those who side with China technologically and ideologically, and those who side with the West, much more than we’ve ever seen before?
MATT POTTINGER: That’s also a great question. So, American foreign policy has had this element, this tradition of realpolitik which, you know, there are nations that calculate on the basis of their own cold self-interest and also running in our veins is this tradition of our own revolutionary liberal democratic world view. They run in our veins like iced water and hot water and hopefully they remain in good enough balance that your blood stays at a good temperature. But you’ve hit on something, the truth is that you cannot ignore the ideological dimensions and ideology is just a fancy word for world view, right. We do have a markedly different world view from the Chinese Communist Party, a different approach to the world, different ideas about quite a lot and that’s not true of China as a whole. The Chinese Communist Party is firmly in command of China, obviously, but China is a lot of things. It is a pretty remarkable civilisation that I have devoted a huge part of my adult life to living in and studying and enjoying and I still do; the history, the culture and the unbelievable drive and energy and entrepreneurialism of the Chinese people. But that ideological dimension is unavoidable and if we try to ignore it, if we try to pretend that it’s only a matter of cold self-interest on both sides, that it’s a Thucydides trap as some like to frame it, I think we’d actually put ourselves on a path towards a more destabilised future than if we were to talk quite frankly to ourselves, our allies and yes, to our adversaries about those differences so that we can avoid miscalculation.
DEAN GODSON: Thank you, Matt. Next question from Alexander Downer, our Chairman of Trustees here at Policy Exchange and, of course, the longest serving Australian Foreign Minister in the country’s history and High Commissioner in London. Alexander.
HON ALEXANDER DOWNER AC: Thanks Dean, I hope you can hear me. I think, speaking as an Australian, it has to be said that we Australians had a fairly solid although not tension-free relationship with China for many years under Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao and Australians have been really taken aback by the aggression in recent years of the Xi Jinping administration so my question is a little bit like Peter Mandelson’s, if there’s a second Trump administration what specific steps will the United States be taking to help countries like Australia which have been targeted by China, particularly Australian trade has been targeted by China, to help build a sense of collective security amongst liberal democracies in the Indo-Pacific region.
MATT POTTINGER: Yes, that’s a great remark that you made and Australia has been in some sense the canary in the coal mine. Australia – by the way, when people claim that provocative and frank, candid language is what causes China to act out in this sort of wolf warrior way, I always point to Australia as well as India as the counter examples there because India and Australia are two countries that had, really went out of their way to extend warmth to China in their people to people and commercial ties. These were countries that did seek to integrate their economies certainly, especially in the case of Australia and yet, when the Australian government just earlier this year had the temerity to ask the World Health Organisation whether there could be a general investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, China retaliated for that wholly reasonable request that Australia made. By the way, the World Health Organisation members voted in the largest majority in the organisation’s history in favour of the motion that Australia raised to investigate the origins, how is it that millions of us now have been infected with this disease? China retaliated by putting tariffs on Australian barley, cancelling beef exports and describing … their arch-propagandist said that Australia is chewing gum stuck to the bottom of China’s shoe and it is time to scrape it off. So, there you have a pretty good counter-argument to the notion that by being extra-friendly to China and hiding some of our candour, that that would lead to a happier bilateral relationship doesn’t stand up.

Ynakee Bet

Is NXT a buy at approx $12?

Fair warning, this will be a long post and I won’t be throwing down any rocket emojis. If you’re looking for that turn back. This post is me seeking some legit discussion about whether or not Next DC (NXT) is a buy at the current price.
For those not in the know, NXT (Next DC) builds and operates data centers Australia wide. I’m looking at it as a potential multi-year buy and hold. It's currently sitting at $12.77 a share or about 5.88B on market cap, and made minor losses in FY19 and FY20 (more on why later). I’m going to talk about it at ~around $12 because $12.77 is a short term high and it could probably be picked up for less if you were patient. Another thing to keep in mind is that it has come up off $6 a year ago, with a capital raise in 2020, so it has more than doubled in market cap.
Since I’m considering this as a long term hold my decision to go in has to be based on fundamentals, not price sentiment. I’m aware that this is a foreign concept to most denizens of ASX_Bets, but you retards are the closest thing to ASX stock analysts (*) I have on reddit. I consider myself to be a beginner at this kind of thing, so I welcome all kinds of feedback (good and bad) on my analysis.
One of the first things I do when I’m trying to put a valuation on a company is a dive into the consolidated financials of the last few annual reports. This approach isn’t the be all and all of DD, but I like it as a starting point because it provides quick insight into how the company does or does not generate earnings, and trends in that behaviour. So, I tabulated the consolidated profit and loss statements of NXT’s 2017-2020 annual reports, and it only raised more questions for me.
You can find my table at this imgur link. The numbers are rounded figures in millions, and the ‘scaling’ rows at the bottom are my own addition (sum of the ‘blue’ rows in the actual statements).
https://imgur.com/nSYNdeI
This table tells an interesting story, but before I get to that the number one thing to know about these figures is that the D&A Cost is Depreciation and Amortisation and it represents the continual loss in useful life of the company’s buildings, plant and equipment. So, when the company invests truckloads of cash into building a new data center the cost does not all appear on these statements in one lump, it gets spread out over the entire ‘useful life’ of the assets. This means it would be wrong to assume that the P&L statement looks bad just because the company is growing. Those growth costs simply don’t hit the P&L that way.
You will observe that I’ve highlighted figures in blue that I consider to scale with the size of the company’s core business of building and running data centres, including lifetime D&A of those assets. These figures show a very nice underlying profitability to that business.
Secondly, you will observe that the company made a profit in 2017 and 2018, and only made a loss in 2019 and 2020 because of the arrival of large financing expenses. If you dig through the 2020 annual report, you will find that this financing is mostly in the form of short term corporate bonds, about $800M worth. Some of the bonds mature in 2021 and some further out, at rates of 4% to over 7% per annum.
Now, with the cash from the recent capital raising NXT could technically just pay out the bonds when they mature and be debt free, but they don’t really want to do that. The company has been growing at about 20% YOY by investing capital into new data center capacity, it needs cash on hand to continue this strategy. If the management of a company thinks that they can get a return on investment greater than the cost of capital then it makes perfect sense to take on some form of debt. NXT used that bond financing to fuel growth in the last couple of years. Read the section titled ‘Funding’ on page 23 of the 2020 report for confirmation that the company will seek continued financing.
On page 73 of the annual report you will find a summary which shows a debt gearing ratio of 35% in 2019 and no gearing in 2020. However, they have used a Debt-to-Capital ratio there, which makes the debt cancel with the cash for technical reasons. To get a different view of gearing I worked out the Debt-to-Assets ratio (still factors in cash) and got 47% in 2019 and 32% in 2020. I don’t think the company will go back to shareholders for more cash again soon, so they will either need to draw down on their $300M debt facility or issue new bonds to roll over the old ones (hopefully at lower rates). The important take-away from this is that in order to keep growing (as shareholders will expect) the company will have to carry debt, and should carry debt if they can get a return on investment. They only need to hold cash temporarily while they set up the next expansion project.
What this means for earning figures is that ‘financing expense’ scales with size of the annual growth for now, and will only later morph into an annual asset replacement cost proportional to the size of the business. This will never go away and it will eat into that ‘underlying profitability’ I mentioned earlier. It will also be a bit patchy and unpredictable from year to year as the company gets funding from different sources. Note that (the way I think it works is that) the financing impact on the profit and loss statement is the interest coupon on the bonds. I.e the -$57.7M in 2020 is about 6.5% of the total outstanding bond amount, equal to the average coupon which gets vaporised and forever disappears from shareholder value. The repayment of the principal on bond expiry will not appear on P&L, just like the initial funding injection did not appear as revenue.
I know that was a lot to take on, but understanding the capital structure is a necessary foundation to valuation in this instance because the business model is so capital intensive. Company management is happy to blow past year’s ‘profit’ on next year’s financing if it will allow continuation of growth. You can expect the company to keep doing this until it hits some kind of growth ceiling or slowdown, at which point financing would drop to an asset turnover rate and the company would start paying dividends. The share price of the company, or I prefer to use total market value of the company (5.88B), should reflect earnings potential once the company stops growing, discounted depending on how many years in the future that point is, and should also count book value of assets at that time.
The problem for me attempting a valuation is that the assumptions going into that method are all guesswork. Can the company continue to grow at +20% revenues for the next however many years? What about the growth rate in asset value? What if there is a significant shift in finance cost? Basically it is one of those situations where you can make present value come out at whatever number you choose, just by tweaking the assumptions.
What’s worse, it looks to me like almost all of the present value is counted in the future value of assets. I won’t bother showing you the discounted cash flow because the numbers are meaningless, but in summary the annual profits generated are small in comparison to the value of assets, and once growth slows down the growth in profit is eaten by inflation and risk anyway.
Even now (in 2020) the ‘scaling profit’ in my my original imgur link is less than 10% of net current asset value in each year (50M vs 1700M in 2020), which supports the view that a large portion of any debt fuelled infrastructure valuation is just book value of the assets. NXT will grow until management does the maths one day on return on capital and decides it is not worth it to keep growing at that cost or at that rate of return. In this way NXT is very much like an airport, a port or or a toll road company, just with data instead of physical goods. Valuation will trend towards nominal replacement cost or purchase price plus a return rate only slightly better than cost of capital (very low right now).
Conclusions and Questions
On the one hand, the rapid growth in net asset value looks likely to eclipse current market cap in a few years. Net assets (inclusive of debt) have grown at an average x1.6 for the last three years. 2017 506M > 2018 893M > 2019 875M > 2020 1683M (includes 862M cap raise). Now while that includes a capital raise, i.e. shareholder money, Net Current Assets (mostly just property, plant and equipment) have been growing at a similar rate. So, just project that rate out a few years, throw in reasonable revenue (beating cost of capital as a ROI) on top of that and you might consider it a buy at $5.88B today. It certainly would have been at $6.
As far as risks go, I think the data center business is probably resistant if not immune to most foreseeable economic disruptions. The black swan stuff is not a reason not to invest, if you are diversifying properly. Direct threats would be mismanagement or competition. A near term (<3y) increase in cost of capital would also be problematic because it would put the brakes on growth. However, that would also affect competitors and would allow NXT to set prices. For upside risks, if the company can access cheaper debt it would be a great boost to shareholder value because it would slash the annual financing costs.
On the other hand, I have difficulty making my preferred discounted cash flow model arrive at a $5.88B valuation. I figure that the company will return in the order of 10-15% of revenue as profit after the rapid growth phase is over (e.g. Replacing 5% of current assets value each year at a cost of 5-7% debt finance.), or a smaller percentage as return on assets. So, if it grows revenue at +20% for another 5 years it might make 75M in profit in 5 years time. If you run that into a cash flow model you get nothing like $5.88B present value (more like 2-2.5B). However in that model the present value is clearly dominated by underlying asset value (which I always count in total valuation) and that has been growing much faster as noted above. It would be silly of me to say that NAV will still be $1700M odd in 5 years time, which is what is happening in that 2-2.5B calculation.
Some of you might be saying ‘but ASisko, you can’t use a DCF to value a growing, capital intensive business!’. Well, I think you can still make some ballpark guestimates, especially if you take the company’s depreciation and amortisation of capex at face value. However, this still leaves me wondering how to reconcile the rapid expansion in net asset value with the relatively paltry free cash flow. I can just project NAV at x1.6 (or a lower multiple for risk) and it comes out much higher than accumulated free cash.
I guess my first open question to you guys is what the f**k to do with this weird NAV growth in a discounted cash flow? Or alternatively, is the DCF right and the NAV figures are wrong?
Secondly, does anyone know of a superior fundamental analysis model for this type of business?
Thirdly, would you invest or are you already invested in NXT, and why?
Lastly, any other comments on my analysis or on NXT itself?
Cheers guys and if you read all the way here instead of looking for the TLDR; I appreciate it.

Matched & Arbitrage Betting - £45+ Risk Free

Shogun 2 Legendary Tips. (For the Sengoku Jidai/Vanilla Campaign)

Field ashigaru-heavy armies. This will allow you to keep costs low. It is not for their spear wall ability, though this is powerful, it is because their cost effectiveness will allow you to make mistakes.
Remember, you cannot save-scum on legendary. Something will go wrong, and when you don't need to throw your all-samurai army away in a piss-up, the game is a lot more forgiving, and a lot more fun.
Attack first. Be aggressive. All the tables favour the A.I.; so, it is up to you to turn them. Build cheap, expendable expeditionary forces to take enemy castles. You'll thank me when your first stack crushes the enemy at your capital in a siege defence, but doesn't have the movement range to counterattack effectively: this usually results in the enemy A.I. using its game-breaking economy and über recruitment slots to field another full stack in two turns. Fuck the A.I. Make sure there's an ambush force in range of the enemy settlement before the enemy begins their assault on your castle. Do this right and you may not even have to fight their army, fingers crossed. (Armies go poof when their last town goes bye-bye.)
Which reminds me, fight using your castles. Open field battles, when you're attacking that is, are a piss-up. The enemy A.I. always camps on hills and makes it a life or death struggle. Arrow towers are not worthless. Choke points are provided to you during siege defences. Use every layer. Don't underestimate good strategy. You can hold 300 men on one side of the castle with one unit of ashigaru. The enemy has to try and take your towers and your central flag; so, place your ashigaru in spear wall directly in front of your flags. The enemy must run at your ashigaru and defeat them before progressing through the rest of the castle. Utilise the stupidity of the A.I. and break the enemy by making them come to you.
If the enemy has archers during castle defences, make them waste their ammo, if there are too many of them, attack first.
Cavalry are not good in bulk unless you're Takeda. Four units is too many units. I bolster my generals with a single cavalry unit, which I place on top of my general during deployment, and then lock them together as if they were a single unit. I have one additional cavalry unit in reserve to replace this one; usually, I hide this unit in the woods until I need it. What this does is make my general more weighty. I can now slam him into the lines when they're looking like they're about to tilt in the enemy's favour, which I don't want. This makes him a true support unit, rather than a liability in combat. Yes, your general may die doing this, but you've taken every reasonable precaution, and 60+ additional bodies makes for at least three well-executed charges into the line before things start getting dubious.
Abuse the charge animation. Once you set your cavalry to charge something, the animation begins, calculates the charge bonus, and then deals out the corresponding damage onto the enemy unit. Pull them out the moment the animation ends, because by then your horses are useless and caught-up in the dice-roll matrix. Once your cavalry are out, check the line. If your men aren't winning decisively, slam your bolstered general into the same line again and watch it crumble. Your cavalry will be tired, but you've just won the engagement.
Reduce your micro-management in battles to three key tools: Infantry core, archers on support, and general-cavalry. If you're fast, throw in a quirk unit: ninjas, firebomb throwers (my personal favourite because they don't require much micro to use and they affect the enemy's morale), or brawlers (marathon monks/nag' warrior monks). Whatever your 'quirk unit' is, min-max it with encampment and skill tree buffs, otherwise, sorry, but you've wasted time and money acquiring it for the roster. If you're building an army you can't field in three turns, you're fucked.
Economy, economy, economy. Get it? Sake dens and markets, sake dens and markets. That's money for your army: not for your navy, not for your nation's well-being and happiness - that's why you're building sake dens - money is for your army.
Use your agents. None of them are shit or under-powered or any of the mumblefuck-none-sense people put online when they don't know how to utilise them. Monks fuck. Walk them through the enemy's territory and past their capital and into their back lines and wololo those bastards into an early revolution. 33% chance is a 1/3 chance, and if the cost of inciting unrest is only 500 gold... I'll take that bet. This fundamentally weakens your enemy and cuts off their supply lines: which causes the A.I.'s diplomacy to go haywire. How can Takeda be trading with Hojo if I just made their border provinces into grey states? That's right, they can't. Break their relationship first, then bribe them to turn on one another. If you've made them hard for you, they'll do it. There you go. You just crushed one of the hardest clans without fighting a battle on the open field. See? Monks fuck. Monks can also demoralise the enemy and inspire your troops with morale bonuses. If the enemy stack has no general to recover from this loss, this is deadly. You will win the encounter on morale alone.
Which reminds me: diplomacy, diplomacy, diplomacy. Think it doesn't matter? Actually, I made Hojo destroy Takeda as Oda, and Imagawa-Tokugawa, and then made Kyoto spit on Hattori, and Hatano clash with the Ikko Ikki: all whilst I sat back, lining up my troops. When the time was right, I sent my armies to take the provinces I needed to execute my Kyoto-plan. Thank you, machine-learning.
Have a plan. Choose territories for their perks (+accuracy bonuses, blacksmiths, resources, gold mines, schools and libraries), not for their availability. If you overextend... Good luck. Just be aware you can't take back coming into contact with the other clans. The more isolationist you are about your affairs, the better.
Your borders are your worse nightmare. Connect with too many clans too quickly and you enter the death-brawl of which there's no escape. Enjoy your war of attrition. Tzu states that there is no instance of a nation benefiting from extended period of war, and yours won't either. Your economy will be shitting bricks by turn fifteen and you'll be playing in -134 income hell. The game isn't fun this way. And it isn't fun because you thrust your fist out into the unknown and hell answered back.
Back to agents: Ninja. Ninja fuck harder than anyone's ever fucked. They can redirect enemies and make them go crying home to baba. Sabotage everything in sight during the first few turns of their lifespan. But do not sabotage things belonging to the clans you want to like you, because if you fail, and you will, -20 or even -40 to diplomatic relations. -40 will convince most clans you're a threat and you need wiping off the map. Skill-tree-wise, dump points into assassination. Protect your ninja with +5%/10% chances to escape unharmed if they fail in their attempts, and take every +1 to assassination that RNG sweetly offers. Take 33% chances on enemy Daimyo. I've wounded the Oda more times than I can count with these odds and sent his army running back home. And remember, on Legendary, nothing can be taken back. Every attempt might be your agent's last: get used to it. I see a lot of people saying ninja are 'too expensive to maintain'. But what else are you spending money on, other than recruiting ashigaru and upgrading vital infrastructure? ... Right? Nothing. People that say this can't run a half-decent economy because they're too busy building archery dojos instead of sake dens.
Metsuke are too expensive to maintain, admittedly. They should not be used to bribe, unless you're doing an 'all-out Metsuke offence'; and by this I mean using Metsuke instead of ninja to send armies back at the A.I, badminton-style. But personally, I don't see this as cost effective. Instead, Metsuke should be used to spy on strategic choke points to watch out for enemy agents, and to bolster the profitability of rice dens. Did you know that if you put Metsuke into provinces with markets, that the growth and economy of those provinces goes up? They can also protect your Daimyo or top-tier generals from being assassinated by enemy ninja; and I highly recommend putting one in each of your core armies. Trust me: it sucks to lose your five-star general to a suspicious death on turn 60, especially when the game auto-saves at the beginning of each turn. Bye-bye Stand and Fight. Bye-bye Ashigaru Commander. Farewell Night Attack. Hello sadness.
For Sieges, have ranged superiority from the off-set. Six bow ashigaru will melt most armies inside of their fort. On my Chōkosabe play-through, each unit had 200+ kills by the end of the siege. I do not find siege battles intimidating when I know I'm coming in with more archers than the opposing army, because I can and will surround them, can and will out-trade them, and then when they're weak and tired from trying to avoid my arrows, that's when I send in my yari ashigaru to take advantage of their failing strength. One unit of bomb throwers on the gate of your choice will blow it to shreds and allow spear-wall after spear-wall to penetrate their defences. The A.I. will blob the gate: perfect, that allows your archers to menace them. If the enemy army has bow samurai, do not attack the wall they're stationed at. You will get fucked because the A.I's bow samurai is always god-tier, and yours fling kaka in comparison. Instead, place an infantry reserve unit just out of range of that wall, and the A.I. will station most of their archers at it and... wait, allowing you to haemorrhage the fort from an opposing angle. Don't bother moving the reserve unit into range of the enemy archers, not necessary, they'll stay there as long as you stare back at them, menacingly. Target priority is: generals, infantry, and bows. If you kill them off in that order, you can afford to get impatient and rush the walls, because bows can't stop yari from getting in. And if your bomb throwers have spare ammo, launch it at any stubborn archers manning the walls: they will quickly get the point and relocate elsewhere.
Toppeth-Tippeth: Bomb throwers can follow your yari ashigaru through the main gate, and toss bombs into the enemy's ranks over the heads of your infantry. I really didn't think this would work when I first tried it, because I figured the narrowness of the gate would cause my bomb throwers to report their line of sight as 'blocked': rendering them useless. Turns out no, actually, they pretty happily line themselves up on the ramp, swing their grenades, and launch them into the enemy blob. Yes, you will lose men: bah. But the enemy's morale will break long before you run out of reserves, especially with all their generals dead already. It's also fun as fuck. Boom... boom... boom.
Katana infantry kind of fuck, but only under the right circumstances. I've found having one or two in reserve to be really advantageous. They are absolutely class for going in with the second wave during sieges. Fresh and eager, and up against tired defenders: they melt. But inspired? They will fuck on everything. Best of all, katana infantry fight to the last man (because bushidō), and because the A.I. loves to field spears, they always have the advantage. The only drawback is they're expensive to maintain, and therefore should only be used this way in the early to mid game, if at all. Lastly, they're dumb-good in siege defences. Put them on the walls, away from the enemy archers, and whoever's coming up isn't coming up for long. I never have to worry about the walls I've assigned my katana to. They're just too good at holding the battlements due to their superior melee stats.
Once your armies have been fielded, hold an economy of around 500/1000 koku. If you don't use it, this will just keep adding to your war chest. It's not a lot, but in three or four turns you will accumulate enough wealth to put together an ashigaru army in a pinch, or bribe an ally to join a war. \Smacks lips.* Nice.*
You can body block stacks from entering your territories and delay them for at least three turns before they can reach your capital. The way you do this is by taking a single unit of yari ashigaru, placing it on a choke point on the campaign map, and then when the enemy is forced to attack it, you retreat. And then you play this game with the enemy's avatar until you've rallied your forces. This is a big dick move, and has saved my ass many'a time. If you have ninja, you're laughing. It'll be five turns before they can get to you. In five turns I can throw an expendable army at them from the god-damn barracks.
In field battles, do not use all your units at once. By this, I mean don't commit everything to one assault. Put four ashi' up to take the enemy charge. Flank with two ashi' on either side. Move your archers around. Harry them with your cavalry. And if you have samurai, use them to take out the key players. Commit in units, not in bulk. Yes, your main line will be chewed apart while you adjust, but who cares? You can recruit two/three ashigaru next turn. Expend the expendable, preserve your veterans. If your initial commitment breaks and surrenders, good, now the enemy has to reform and turn around: usually into a line of no-dachi. Banzaiii!!!
If your objective is to win every battle with no casualties, start praying. Most sieges end in most of my army routed, and only my generals and a single unit of tired yari ashigaru left, with all my archers either out of ammo, or about to be. I always lose two units to critical losses, but then I can always recruit them back next turn. The rest of my army limps back to rejoin me another day, despite taking severe losses from enemy archers/the gate. Game's pretty forgiving when you commit to siege battles.
You can force the enemy to attack your main army by putting it on a choke-point on the campaign map. The A.I. will have to come through you to get what it wants. Sadly, the A.I. can also be a huge puss', calculate unfavourable odds, and never bother to attack you, as you straddle the border to your territory like an asshole, forever. In this case, either go into ambush stance, or make a play. Defensive battles in the field are preferable to attacking, always. The A.I. will come to you, and you can choose anywhere on the map to make your stand. This leads to easy and fun battles, even on legendary, where you can set-up your men in ranks on hills, between valleys, in villages, and around bridges. Battles where you're on the attack always end the same way: by baiting and switching, which is not fun (... to me.)
Katana cavalry are kind of a joke despite them looking like they would fuck. Sadly, they don't, and you're much better-off with two units of light cavalry, or yari cavalry.
Bow samurai are overrated and worse: expensive. Ashigaruuu!
Yari samurai are 'okay', but I always disband them on turn 1, then use the additional income to recruit other, cheaper spears. The enemy cavalry runs at your line during deployment, they're so dumb. Don't waste money on fielding a unit that's built to counter something that tends to counter itself.
For extra income, you can sell military access, but do so strategically. On average, I can sell 5 turns for 500-750. 10 turns for 1250-1500. And 20 turns for 3000 koku++ upwards. I do this when I want to upgrade essential infrastructure, like gold mines. But you must be wary of doing this on legendary, as you create a dialogue with potential enemies that wraps you up in red tape should you decide to attack them before the peace-bond made between you runs out. And sometimes it can take a very long time for this to happen (30+ turns if you settle for a 20 turn deal). This is huge because if you decide to attack before the timer runs out, then you'll suffer from diplomacy penalties with all the other clans you've come into contact with so far. On some campaigns, this can really hurt you. e.g. Piss off the Hojo as Oda, and Takeda will march on you early (because he's programmed to want your territory). That's not good, really not good. Likewise, as Shimazu you may want Tachibana or Chōkosabe on your side to buffer the northern clans. Well, not if you go cheesing Ito and betraying alliances with the Otomo. If you act the prick on legendary, you're asking for trouble. If your diplomacy window reads hostile, hostile, hostile, and you're not the Ikko-Ikki or a Christian clan, then you're doing something wrong. The game sets you up with natural enemies and natural allies, but you can break the mechanics and side with clans who're designed to inherently hate you, as long as you keep their attention fixed elsewhere via correct use of military access. Beware, selling military access to aggressive clans will cause them to come into your territory and devour your vassals, forcing you to make awkward decisions; and I'm certain you didn't just sell Date military access so that he could come and cause issues for you left and right: so, better to avoid this altogether. Be cautious about the fronts you're engaging with, TL;DR.
Vassals are worthless, even as buffers. You can't sell them military access and most of the time you can't encourage them to wage war, and if they can't be depended on as allies, then they're useless as allies. And they will betray you, they'll betray you because the game makes it impossible to keep them happy because you're demanding military access from them in return for protection, when they should be the ones protecting you. Only they don't because they're fucking dumb and can't be coerced into attacking who you want them to attack. So, don't take the settlements you don't need, and occupy them peacefully if you do.
Which brings me to ONAH! - Honor is important. Low honor causes rebellions in your back lines. Low honor means clans hate you :-). Low honor makes it so that when you take a new city, the new city will whine turn after turn unless you have a general with the '-6 to resistance' trait, really good Metsuke, or a spare army to shut them up. (Psst. Recruiting men just to put down rebellions means less koku and negative economic growth.) This game literally makes you pay for your mistakes. There aren't many clans that can afford to be honour-less on legendary, not unless you want stacks of pissed-off armies marching into your territory every couple of years. Did you know that if you gift 150 koku to your super-powered feudal overlords, you get +3 to your diplomatic relations with them? Do this every other turn and you'll have +20 in no time. +20 is enough to dissuade them from attacking you: as long you have an active trade deal going and are giving them plenty of military access.
Be in it for the long game. Let others weaken your enemies for you, it is not so good to wage war before you are sure that you have the advantage.
Have fun. Legendary's great because it is fast-paced and consistent. You'll rarely have more than a couple years of peace, enjoy it while it lasts.
One last battle tip: use the terrain. Even a slight incline gives your ashigaru an advantage. A slight incline for the enemy marks your death. Zoom in, check where you are actually positioning your forces, and do not make the mistake of fighting on fatal ground. The reason why I lose so many armies to inferior opponents is because I think the A.I. is ha-ha dumb. It is ha-ha dumb. But it is also committed to attacking. If you march onto unfavourable ground, and you allow the enemy to attack you on it: his strategy is superior. Watch as your lines break. Then zoom in afterwards and realise: you just marched your entire army onto some really weird and obnoxious inclines that made holding the line difficult for your ashigaru. Woopsy. 'Woopsy' on legendary could cost you the campaign.
Good luck, my dudes. Great game +10 years on, even on a Mac. Wahahaha!

[Cryoverse] The Last Precursor 013: Repairing the Bloodbearer

The Last Precursor is a brand new HFY-exclusive web-serial which focuses on the exploits of the last living human amidst a galaxy of unknown aliens. With his species all but extinct and only known as the ancient Precursors, how will Rodriguez survive in this hostile universe? Make sure to read the earlier chapters first if you missed them!
Join the TLP Discord!
Previous Part
Part 001
.......................................
José Rodriguez, the last living Terran, slowly opens his eyes.
A plain metal ceiling, covered in plexi-steel tiles, sits some twenty feet above his face. The Admiral lays motionless on his back, his arms and legs held limp in a straight pose. A strange sensation swallows him, akin to floating on a gently undulating ocean while riding atop a piece of plywood.
"Hello, Admiral," Umi beeps. "You slept for seventeen hours and fourteen minutes. How are you feeling?"
The Terran doesn't reply.
He continues to stare at the ceiling while countless thoughts and emotions mix with the strange, lucid dreams he left behind only a minute before.
They're all dead.
José closes his eyes.
Everyone I have ever known.
My friends. My comrades. My superiors. My enemies. Even the people I took for granted, those who merely 'existed' and caused me no grief.
Every last one of them is long gone. I can't ever see them again.
Slowly, the Admiral turns his head to the left. The eleven-foot-long cot from his personal quarters, its bedding material as hard as a rock after 100,000,000 years of calcification, provides no comfort for the Admiral. His 'pillow' proves little more than a flat, half-inch-tall piece of rock. Were it not for his durable body, merely laying on the bed would probably give him all manner of aches and pains.
As the Admiral looks around the room, a mixture of nostalgia and sadness glides throughout his veins. A second cot on the opposite side of the room, the bed his former bunkmate once used, Private Azaram, sits empty and covered in a thick layer of dust. A pair of lockers sit against the wall, between both bunks. In José's former life, he might have chatted with Private Azaram when they woke up. They would shoot the shit, tease each other a bit, and yap about all the vague mundanities of life.
But no longer will that happen.
José stares at his bunkmate's empty bed. Unbidden, a memory floats to the top of his mind.
Yo, Jojo, I hear you knocked your lady up. So, you gonna pop the question? Come on, man. Can't hurt to settle down for a couple decades, raise an ankle-biter, then return once you've had your fun.
I'm too busy for that, Nick.
Don't give me that crap. The war's been raging for hundreds of thousands of years. One soldier taking twenty years off to raise a kid won't change anything.
It will for me. I shouldn't have gotten involved with her.
That's love, man. Love! You know what that means, right? You've gotta stop running away from everything.
She'll be better off without me.
José...
The memory fades. José continues to stare at the other cot for several long seconds afterward.
"Admiral."
Umi's voice beeps above, as she prods the Terran again.
"I know you are awake. I have observed your brainwaves shifting into the green spectrum."
Admiral Rodriguez sighs. "Just leave me alone for a few minutes."
"...Very well."
Umi falls silent, leaving José to his thoughts.
Slowly, the Admiral moves his left leg toward the edge of the bed. He gently lowers it to the floor, then follows with his right. After twenty or so seconds, he pushes himself into a sitting position and coughs. A small cloud of dust kicks up around him, but he ignores it.
José sits on the edge of his bed. He leans forward, face in hands, elbows on his knees.
I'm sorry, Evelyn.
Tears well up in the Terran's eyes. The shock of the last two days creeps into the back of his mind as he finally takes some time to sit down and sort through his emotions.
I left you behind, and our child. I don't even know if it was a boy or a girl.
José lifts his thin, gangly arm, and presses his fingers against his eyelids. After wiping away a few tears, he sniffles quietly.
What the hell am I supposed to do? Do I even have a reason to live?
His thoughts shift back to all the pointless mundanities he once pursued. Promotions. Killing. The envy of his peers. The respect of his benefactor, Ramma.
José opens his eyes and glances at a small bedside dresser. With its former brown coloration lost to the passage of time, it now appears white as snow. The lone furniture piece on José's side appears to be on its last legs, as if a gentle nudge would cause it to crumble into dust. Only the lack of oxygen in the room for millions of years has allowed it to remain standing for so long.
However, José's eyes look toward the top of the dresser, where a broken picture frame rests. With its glass having long-since decayed into sandy particles along with the glue holding its wooden sides together, the portrait lies in a heap atop the dresser, apparently having fallen forward and broken at some point.
Slowly, José reaches over and nudges aside the frame's wooden edges. He pulls out a brown piece of paper, its corners curled, upon which a person's portrait used to rest.
Now, its faded coloration shows nothing.
José turns the piece of paper around in his hands, searching for any modicum of familiarity. Despite nothing being on its surface, his mind still fills in the image of a smiling, brown-haired woman's face.
"Evelyn..."
The Admiral lowers his hand and drops the worthless scrap to the floor. His shoulders slump as he leans forward, even more broken than before.
Mulling on the immense physical pain he endured during the surgery, as well as the loss of everyone he ever cared about, José's thoughts turn truly dark as he begins to imagine the barrel of a plasma carbine pressing against his skull.
It would be so easy. No more pain. No more worries. Maybe I could see her again and... apologize.
The Admiral's stomach growls, reminding him that he hasn't eaten even once in the last two days. Still, he doesn't move.
"...Umi."
"Yes, Admiral? How are you feeling? I'm presently detecting large amount of negative emotions within your-"
"I don't give a damn what you detect," José mutters. "Just shut up and answer some questions for me."
"Affirmative, Admiral," Umi replies without complaint. "Ask whatever you wish."
However, José hesitates. He closes his eyes and sighs.
"Do... do you have any... any audio logs? Video logs? Of the other crew, I mean. The deceased."
"Negative, Admiral. In the event of a gradual system collapse, my subsystems will automatically convert high-capacity files involving video and audio to text format to save space. I have already converted all available audio and video logs to text, as per my system's parameters. If I did not perform those operations, I would have experienced a much larger amount of overall data loss."
"Oh. I see."
The Admiral's body seemingly increases in weight. A creeping sense of isolation hits him, making him feel hopeless and lonely.
"Not even one person's voice remains. All I have are my memories."
"Admiral? Are you... in pain?"
"Not physically."
Umi's voice lowers. "You have endured an extreme amount of trauma, as of late. The body may heal, but the mind is not always so resilient. I would advise an immediate psychiatric evaluation, if possible, but..."
The synthmind trails off, making José nod.
"Who's left for me to talk to? Nobody. Just a bunch of aliens. Strangers I barely know."
"I have undergone a high-level of degradation to my Emotion Cores," Umi says. "Therefore, I am unable to properly offer counsel on this matter. However, it seems logical to me that you should at least attempt to speak to one of the Kraktol about your concerns, Admiral."
"I can't do that," José says. "Megla still considers me her enemy. Soren is probably friendlier than her sister, but she's still an unknown factor. If I reveal weakness in front of them, then perhaps I won't be able to keep them under control. Who knows what they might do when I turn my back?"
"Admiral. You seem to distrust the Kraktol conscripts. If so, why did you bring them aboard the Bloodbearer? This move seems... illogical."
"I'm human, Umi. I don't operate logically. Even I don't know why I let them come with me."
Shakily, José pushes himself off the bed and rises to his feet. His legs tremble visibly as he staggers toward the nearby wheelchair and plops into its embrace. His arms and legs appear slightly more muscular than when he first left the surgery room, but nevertheless, they're far too weak to support his current weight.
"If the Kraktol wished you harm, they could have killed you immediately following the operation," Umi says. "You weren't capable of defending yourself. The holo-crew would have posed little threat to the Kraktol, given their limited intelligence. Perhaps you should revise your opinion of Officers Soren and Megla."
"Perhaps," José answers, noncommittally. "For now... I can't trust anyone. I don't have a solid understanding of the political situation inside the Milky Way. I don't know who any of the major powers are. I already have at least one major enemy, but no allies."
Umi starts to reply, but José cuts her off. "The Kessu don't count. They're primitives. I doubt they'll be a major galactic power I can rely on for support and logistics."
"...Understood, Admiral," Umi replies, her voice low. "It seems that we must attempt to establish communication with the Kraktol's enemies. According to the data I've recovered, the Mallali and Avaru are our best bet."
"I'll worry about that later," the Admiral says. "Right now, repairing the Bloodbearer is my number one priority."
José reaches for his wheelchair's controls. He starts to drive it outside, but pauses.
Slowly, the Admiral lowers his gaze to the faded, cracked piece of paper sitting on the floor.
The only image he ever had of Evelyn.
The Terran turns his gaze away. With a small shake of his head, he drives toward the doorway, leaving his room behind.
Too many painful memories here. Perhaps I should make Admiral Baruchen's quarters mine after all.
...
José rolls forward on the wheeled machine in silence for five minutes. Eventually, he speaks to Umi.
"Where are Soren and Megla?"
"The two Kraktol woke up from their slumber five hours and six minutes ago, Admiral," Umi replies. "Since you stressed the importance of time and our limited resources, I took the initiative to guide them toward the engine ventilation system. Under my guidance, the two of them have cleaned out approximately 0.0054% of the accumulated debris and waste byproduct. The Bloodbearer will only reach low-operational-status once your crew clears out at least 20% of the oxidization clogging the engines."
"Mmm. Have those women meet up with me along the way."
"Orders received. Admiral, I must also mention a severe lack of resources for food production aboard the Bloodbearer. The biomatter storage is currently at 0% after I discarded all the hardened, rotted material. I was able to create some basic ration bars for the Kessu and Kraktol, but their nutritional value was negligible and every officer complained about the taste."
José groans. "No food. No engines. No allies. The whole ship is broken. Can't I get some good news for once?"
"Affirmative," Umi beeps in response. "The Kessu and Kraktol did not engage in verbal warfare while you were asleep. According to my calculations, this represents an improvement in their relations of 7.5%."
"...Thanks, Umi." José says, his voice dripping with sarcasm. "I don't know what I would do without you."
Umi replies with a sugary-sweet tone. "According to my predictive matrix; you would die."
José's only reply is a long, low groan.
.......................................
"Admiral!" Soren says, her voice containing a note of alarm. She and Megla trot toward José as he rolls down the Bloodbearer's primary connective corridor, arriving at his position after a few moments. "Are you alright? Your body seemed to be heavily injured when I last saw you."
"I'm dandy," José grumbles. "Just wonderful."
The Admiral glances at Megla. He waits for a snarky comeback, only to almost fall out of his chair when she speaks.
"That's great, Admiral. I was- I mean, we were really worried about you. We, ah... we thought you wouldn't make it. I'm glad you're okay."
José blinks several times to make sure he isn't still sleeping. "You were... concerned? About me?"
Megla crosses her arms and looks away. "Erm... only a little."
The Terran shakes his head to try and clear away the cobwebs in his brain. "I see. Well, thank you for your concern. I'm much weaker than before, so I can hardly move on my own. I hope you two will assist me in repairing the Bloodbearer's systems."
The Admiral's gaze falls toward both Kraktol officer's waists, where steel belts hang with a small assortment of attached repair tools. The two womens' usually pristine red and yellow scales appear dirty, caked with dirt and grease.
"Of course, Admiral," Soren says. She walks behind José's wheelchair and grabs its top handles to push him forward.
"What are you doing?" José asks, suspicion in his voice.
"I don't believe you should be expending any energy, Admiral. Please allow me to guide you wherever you please. It would be best if you could relax and leave the hard work to my sister and I."
Before José can reply, Megla strides over to Soren's side and huffs. "Kyargh! Let me push the Admiral. I'm sure you're still tired from sticking your head inside that greasy ventilation duct."
"No need," Soren says, a faint smile on her face. "I can handle this simple task."
"I know you can," Megla protests. "But so can I! Hmph, listen to your big sister for once, why don't you?"
Soren's smile widens. "You seem awfully eager to get close to the Admiral."
"I-I'm not!" Megla yelps, her yellow scales brightening intensely. She takes a step away from Soren with a strange look in her eyes. "I... I just want to help!"
"Kuhak!" Soren laughs. Her usual stoic demeanor cracks slightly upon seeing her sister's flustered look. "Something seems to have changed with your heart, Megla."
José sighs. "Ladies. Please. Stop fighting over me like I'm a piece of meat. We don't have time to waste. I'll drive myself to the Engine Room. You just walk alongside me and listen. I have a lot of information to relay."
Both Kraktol women frown for a moment before hiding their emotions. With a sigh, Soren pulls away from José and raises her palms. "I see. My apologies, Admiral. I did not mean to insult your abilities. You can surely move yourself if necessary."
The Admiral looks into the disappointed eyes of Soren, before glancing at Megla afterward. Both of them appear miffed that he would ignore their genuine, heartfelt offers.
However, José ignores their silly behavior.
"Come along. I want to examine the engine room's condition for myself."
Soren lowers her head. "Yes, Admiral..."
"Do what you want," Megla snorts, her annoyance plain as day. She crosses her arms and walks beside José on his left, while Soren walks on his right. They begin heading toward the engine room at a pace neither too fast, nor too slow.
An awkward silence ensues. After a few minutes, José clears his throat. "Did Umi explain the mechanics of a Triple-Induction Drive to either of you?"
Soren shakes her head. "No. We asked several questions, but the synthmind did not answer. She only guided us on the cleaning and repair process for the engine exhaust vents."
From above, Umi speaks. "Admiral. Given the two Kraktol are newly acquired crew-members, and given their origins, I have registered them as 'initiate crew.' Unless you remove the restriction on Class 4 information and below, I will be unable to provide them with information regarding this ship's features or technical blueprints. Based upon the information I've collected from the Dragon Breath's databases, the galaxy at large is unaware of the capabilities of 40th and 50th Era technology. Very few factions possess ships from later than the 30th era, so I have calculated that classifying this information as Top Secret is a prudent move."
José nods. "I agree. However, Soren and Megla are now officers of this vessel. In the future, please provide them with any general information of Class 3 and below as their knowledge-base evolves. I'll evaluate the rest on a case-by-case basis."
The Admiral speaks openly with Umi right in front of the Kraktol, allowing both of them to hear his words. They glance at each other out of the corners of their eyes and sigh.
The Admiral doesn't trust us. Given he's only known us for a day, that's to be expected.
...
It doesn't take long before José and the Kraktol arrive at the entrance to the Bloodbearer's Engine Bay. Its entry doors, barely maintained by one of the six Filth Expunger Units over the past 100,000,000 years, slowly slide open. The top and bottom squeal in a most annoying manner due to a large amount of rust accumulation, but the three officers ignore the awful sound.
Jose arrives inside a large, circular chamber, easily twice as big as an open-air football stadium. In the center of the room, three giant circular metal platforms sit next to one another in a triangular formation. They hum with energy, causing the air inside the room to vibrate and rattle all three officers' teeth.
An energy field twenty meters tall rises toward the ceiling above each platform, where a second set of platforms on the roof meet the field and keep its energy circulating to form a powerful containment field. Inside the energy fields, three giant orbs of explosive-looking energy rapidly whirl around, revealing themselves to be the cause of the intense, energetic humming sensation.
Hundreds of thick, Terran-body-width cables stick out of the walls and slink along the ground, connecting to the platforms on the floor, but also the ceiling. They suck the leftover energy from the energized orbs away to power the rest of the ship, preventing them from detonating with high-yield nuclear explosions.
Countless robotic arms, long-since rusted-over, stick out of the engine room's walls. Only twenty or so move around and poke at the various computer consoles scattered throughout the room, but it appears clear to José and the Kraktol that this room is just as decayed and dilapidated as the rest of the ship.
"Damn..." José mutters. "Even more things to repair. The work never ends. The inventor of bio-fusion once claimed his power sources would last for a billion years, so I guess he was right after all. The ship is likely to break long before the reactors lose their charge."
Soren gestures toward the far wall. "The synthmind had us clean the ventilation ducts over there. I only scraped out out the interiors of the first five, but more than a hundred remain."
Nodding, José says, "Yes, but cleaning the engine ventilation ducts is only the first step. We also need to clean and maintain the plasma warp conduits, then exit the ship and decalcify the exterior engines. Beyond that, we have to examine the damage this sector's plasma storm has likely caused the Bloodbearer's hull. If there are any breaches on the exterior, we must seal them up before entering Folded Space."
Soren's eyes flash with hunger. "Admiral, didn't you tell us you were going to explain the Triple Induction Drive and Folded Space? I'm dying to know more."
José smiles.
"Oh, yes. I had almost forgotten! Haha, your thirst for knowledge is quite admirable."
The Terran wheels toward one of the many nearby broken computer consoles. He gestures toward Megla's toolbelt, prompting her to step closer. Despite the weakness in his body and his atrophied limbs, his shaking and trembles appear to have mostly worn off since resting, so he easily snatches three odd-looking pen-gadgets from her before turning to the console.
Whirr. Bzzt.
José's hands become a blur as he gets to work fixing the first of many computers within the Engine Room.
"A Triple-Induction Drive is not something those from the 30th era would know much about, given how long it took us Terrans to perfect that technology..."
Both of the Kraktol lean in to listen as José explains this incredible technology and its uses to them.
Next Part
.......................................
Author Note:
Klokinator here! I am also the author of The Cryopod to Hell. The Last Precursor takes place in the [Cryoverse] which TCTH spawned. You do not have to read TCTH to enjoy TLP. However, I highly recommend it if you enjoy HFY themes, but be warned it will take some 200 parts to get to the relevant HFY elements due to the nature of the story. (A similar structure involving very few humans fighting against vicious demons that have taken over the galaxy.)
If you like this story, please consider subscribing to my Patreon! I am very poor and presently jobless due to Coronavirus, so every dollar helps. You get access to Cryopod artwork, and plenty of other exclusive posts, with more to come soon.
Thank you!

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Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Why it matters

Capital and position sizing

Kelly Criterion

How to use stop losses sensibly

Picking a clear level

Coming up in part II

Coming up in part III