Market Research: The State of Online Gaming – 2019

online gaming revenue by state

online gaming revenue by state - win

(GME DD) One DD to rule them. One DD to find them. One DD to to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.

(GME DD) One DD to rule them. One DD to find them. One DD to to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.

Ok retards listen up. Been seeing lots of cucks writing small DD pieces of bullish or bearish shit. You cucks need to read this cos this is the whole fucking thing.

this is also basically my magnum fucking opus so upvote retards. Dont give me awards, legit go buy a powerup membership for a year. Cant tell you to buy shares because we gonna get closed down by SEC somehow.
im also not some fininacial advisor or whatever just read this and make your own conclusions degenerates. Im not fucking liable lmao but i am balls deep 125 shares @ 19 average now, its literally all I have on this earth.
TLDR: GME DD sumarized, Margin wont affect longs the same way as shorts right now. Dont buy shares on margin though and get ready to supply collateral regardless. Short interest is up and some smart retards are on our side. Read the post to raise your IQ from 8 to 9 though. 🐻 🌈s mega fuk and even posting high level bear shit to scare us.
Compulsory 7 rockets so you autists dont start having a seizure or something:
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Basically been seeing posts about "blah blah margin this, short interest this, WS to clever blah". Going to split this post into distinct sections but im no english degree cuck so dont expect any bear bloomberg level shit or something

1. GME is a fucking steal regardless of squeeze. Buy now or be left on a dying planet while we head to alpha fucking centauri.

So basically everyone here knows about Ryan cohen and his horsemen of the apocalypse coming to steal melvins lunch money. This man bought apple stock in 2017. Hes fucking rich. Hes also an eccommerce wizard, taking CHEWY from a measly 100k co-founded company to a $4 Billion company in 2017 at which point he sold it to petsmart or something. Its now valued at $40 Billion, granted anything eccommerce now gets money thrown at it like a stripper in a high flying strip club or some shit idk im a virgin so dont listen to me, so it may well be a bubble. Regardless the thing grows its revenue like bacteria doing binary fission on agar jelly 🚀🚀🚀🚀.
THEY SELL FUCKING PET FOOD. the market for that is like what? $1?. Gaming is going to the moon and is basically recession proof because of how cheap game is compared to other things for how much you get out of it. Any bears saying that Gamestop cant compete with digital or with amazon. Ryan cohen already slapped amazons head in with a no name brand. Hell fucking do it again. About digital everyone here already knows, microsoft deal, Ryan cohen also mentioned the possibility of having "Digital game exchanging" or something, image below.
Online trade ins. It says online.🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
He also mentions streaming, digital content etc and aside from all the digital stuff wants GME to move to a community centric structure where big stores operate with VR centres, Internet cafe, table games like Dungeons and dragons and 40k (rapidly growing somehow will boom post covid) and as we now might know due to this post:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kypuyb/gme_dd_buildapc_kiosks_coming/
BUILD YOUR OWN PC KIOSKS. This is the literal smell of money. Go to your Gamestop to build your PC with your kid? Gamestop is already the goto place wher your parents go to get you your latest digital fix so now they can go build PC's and it cant go tits up?
Now for some pussy boomer talk (aka fundametals or something).
The expected Q3 EPS was -0.84$ or something close to that. The actual loss was -0.53$ but boomzoids only talked about the revenue drop. No shit sherlock its closing all its dead weight stores.
In the holiday report I will talk about a bit more below, 11% of stores were closed and revenue dropped only 3%. Comparitive store sales increased nearly 5%. They cant get enough consoles to sell so expect the momentum to carry on for the whole year I expect. Eccommerce is up 300% over holidays. In Q3 they reported 800% to date. In 2020 Gamestops eccomerce went up 24x. YES YOU READ THAT RIGHT. Online sales now account for ~33% of Gamestops sales now. This is literally gold dust for ryan cohen.
We are still trading at 0.38 P/S at this price. The average P/S for the SP500 is 2.753. Massive upside on these two numbers alone.
Burry got in this for the MOASS and the intrinsic value. At the time intrinsic value was like $22 and this will pump up as RC takes it to new heights.
GME in Q3 somehow halved the expected loss. Big Bad Boomer sherman somehow didnt fuck it up that bad by saying "omnichannel" at the speed of light. Yes the revenue dropped 30% but thats covid for you. As the PC kiosk post above shows GME now sells small items basically so fast they have to have fake stock lmao. The new console cycle always spikes the share price sky high too, as youll see in a crayon drawing later. The potential revenue that this console cycle brings in could be huge. Biggest ever is potentially a true statement and Gamestop sells every fucker they get. Combine the fact that they share game pass ( a massive hit) revenue from the xboxes they sell, something no other retailer has, revenue could be sky high.
Now I know you autists are starting to develop short term dyslexia or something but keep reading. This could be the most important piece of shit you read in your life. How do you think I feel? My brains overheating just trying to write coherent sentences.
Holdiay report was a bear trap imo, saw people saying the decrease in revenue was bearish blah blah blah. Lies. Comparitve store sales rose 5% and thats with some towns having like 4 gamestops. When the leases dont get renewed and these stores get liquidated (Also in Ryan cohens letter) they can just get this influx of cash and pay down debt and invest in logistics and marketing and new growth. Gamestop realistically needs like 1/2 the stores they have now and just need to improve efficiency.
https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/349890 this article the messiah himself wrote. In it he states:
At Chewy, we had maniacal discipline when it came to how we spent money. The company-wide culture of frugality came from his example. Free cash flow was our unwavering governor of growth. We grew Chewy from $200 million in sales in 2013 to $3.5 billion in 2018 while spending only $130 million in capital, all of which went into opening distribution centers across the country and acquiring new customers.
Maniacal. Thats all I need to say. The guy is going to get to mars before papa musk and he wont even break a sweat. When FCF starts to catch up to WS expectations every analyst who donwgraded them is gonna get ditched and upgrades will start to happen.
So in the heading i said its a steal. That implies some future higher price target right? Well here is my guess for a conservative price target based on the information above and also some more I probably forgot cos im a retard.

The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
The difference is where share price looks to be and where market cap places us is due to difference in outstanding shares (another reason shorts are fuk)
This alone means if for not inflation adjusted terms we reached 9.8Bn or whatever the crayon chart says we should reach:
9.8/2.48 = ~3.95 3.95 * $35.5 = ~$140. The share price now to reach old mkt cap is $140 fucking dollars. Thats a 4 bagger from now. It gets better.
from statista :
Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in recent years, a 2.24 percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection.
If we take 2.24% inflation, the this share price target in todays money means we should reach $182 because of $140 * 1.0224^12, = $182 in adjusted. Thats more than a 5 bagger. basically we could see $10 GME price from short manipulation and buying more is basically a lottery ticket!
I really dont understand the bear thesis. The only bear thesis ( short term this one) was that margin would affect longs more but I looked at it on ortex and its basically bullshit. Buy shares with cash though dont use margin. Own your piece of GME dont borrow it. Bears just spout "DigITaL" or "BlOCKbuSTER" so much Ryan tweeted a shit emoji at them. All the bears think theyre clever. What the fuck makes those cucks special? How are they different now than the ones from $2, or $4, or $10.
Bears are betting against:
Ryan fucking cohen, buisness legend CHEWY from 100k investment, now 40 billion
Michael burry, Investing legend, predicted the housing crisis and is in GME since april
u/DeepFuckingValue , the new WSB god chad, now basically a whale
Reggie Fils-Aimé, gaming and buisness legend, former COO of nintendo
Senvest, a mega fund thats actively managed
Norweigan sovereign wealth fund
Fidelity, Vanguard and blackrock own this shit and are never selling they literally dont give a shit
All of WSB has now formed a shield wall against the bears
Microsoft gave GME highly discounted azure deals and free office use for all employees and a revenue sharing agreement. Bears are stupid if they think MSFT didnt vet GME.

Some valid bear thesis left now (the only ones left) -- Ryan Cohen dies.

2. Now some analysis on the short squeeze and some technical data on puts and calls and ortex data.

Ok everyone on here and their cat, dog, bedbugs and wifes boyfriend knows about the squeeze. Jimmy chill aka cramer even talking about it. Gamestop is literally the most shorted stock of all time and space. The squeeze makes every autist salivate because its basically free money while cucking big money out of like what 1% of their fund.
Although I know all you cucks hate shares, and hate holding, if the squeeze doesnt happen selling is probably the most retarded thing anyone could do. Its literally buy high sell low and you fucking disgust me. STONK ONLY GOES UP.
This squeeze is so monumental that its been sucking sharks in like fresh blood. Most of the funds where shorting this from 30-15 dollars before this year so they didnt really care. It all changed with 2 people. u/DeepFuckingValue and Dr. Michael Burry. These guys are as OG as it gets with GME. I think u/DeepFuckingValue may have even sniffed this trade out before the legend himself. Since then funds will have churned this through their rules and started jumping on this train. Ive been in since $13 with 125 shares. If I had more money Id be buying but im just some stupid student ok. Im merely a medium for this money made information.
The stats for this stock now short wise are, from ortex:
Concrete short interest as of 31 December 2020: 71 Million.
Estimated short interest, January 11th data: (This isnt predicted, this is from data in flow, has margin of error) : 77 Million
Short shares on loan 7 days ago: 50 Million
Short shares on loan now (This breaks the bearish margin calls affect longs more thesis): 54.2 Million
% of known float short: 147% as of 31 December 2020
% of know free float on loaned shorts: 108% as of January 11th.
Some guy on here took into account extra buying on wednesday, Institutions, Burry, RC's extra 7% and WSB ownership (something so stupendously retarded no serious firm will do it) that float on short could be in the 100s of %. Total short float now I would say could be 200-400% if the numbers are correct. This pisses on all other short squeezes. Some countries ban shorting above 100% cos of how autistic it is.
The recent hike in interactive brokers available shares is probably a mix of sell off on friday (remember some guys are now buying lambos with GME money. If they held they could buy 10), calls exercising and puts being covered and brokers ditching the shares. Nakedshort even reported 5 million naked GME shorts on friday. This is bullish as fuck because the best the shorts could do on a red market day was -10%.
Gamestop is still on the SECs threshold list for 27 days now.
This shows naked short selling and downwards pressure hasnt capitulated
Need rockets 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀:
Ok so now if WSB owns an estimated 6-8% of the stock and we all know to move over to cash accounts now to avoid margin calls, we should be minimizing longs getting margin called. Every bear on stockwits is a clueless cuck who spouts "blockbuster" and these guys dont even know what margin even is so my bet is the colossal 54 Million shares short on loan are gonna be affected by the margin calls more. Why? Because every long on margin is in the green, and now a true zealot/extremist/autist for ryan cohen so will supply their account with collateral to avoid margin call. Shorts are in the massive red zone. How do I know you ask?
Ortex data from Jan 4th 2021:
This is the data from ortex for short interest for Gamestop for Jan 4th
So this shows for jan 4th the estimated short interest is 66.98 Million shares. From the exchange reported 71 Million on december 31st this makes a lot of sense because the share price fell from ~21 to ~17 so shorts took profits. The shares on loan arent for longs too. This is all purely short data, and 47M shorted at $17 this shows.
These shorts are in a circle of hell we cant comprehend and makes satan scared.
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Now for the data for this week:

Ortex short data for Jan 14th for Gamestop
SHARES ON LOAN HAVE GONE UP. BUT 87% OF LOANED SHORTS WHERE SHORTING AT SUB $20.
Cost to borrow is also up, estimated short interest is up to a cataclysmic amount.
Longs on margin need to supply collateral, but we are in the massive green zone, shorts are underwater. Margin calls will ravage the shorts and sting the longs. We also have the uptick rule in place until the end of the day, so shorts can only short on the way up. Im not saying itll happen but this shit is skewed in our favour big time. we need to 💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌💎🙌.
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Seen a lot of talk about Gamma hedging and delta.
You realize that the fucking bankers and brokers dont understand gamma hedging right? That shits up their with the black-scholes equation and feynman-kac solution. Forget about it. The retards claiming to understand it are either payed by hedge funds or lose money. The guy who took out outs thinking options exercising and gamma hedging would lead to a collossal sell off on friday lost money on his puts because no one except some quants in a goldman sachs server room know this shit. The idea is simple about neutral delta on options that people take out, but the simple system interacts with every other thing in the stock market, and wow who couldve guessed it, like nearly any other element of the stock market predicting something by the day is nigh impossible. That guy talking about Gamma , Delta and margin calls is on weeklies. Hes no more autistic and equally retarded as all of us. Hes a chill guy though so dont berate a fellow brother.
Now weve established the likelihood of longs getting margin called is far smaller than shorts, on to the options distributions
Two images now: Top one is before the end of the 15th, the other one is after market close:

This shows the suspected melvin puts (51000 contracts, 5 Million shares, rolled up from july, strike price $24) and lots of big ITM calls.
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This shows the big put contract didnt get rolled over and the big ITM calls got exercised on friday. Large puts are underwater big timem while calls are in the big tendy zone.
These two graphs, show before market close and after. As we can see the massiver 51000 put contracts didnt get rolled over and the chances that those were melvins july puts rolled up is very high. They expired worthless. Lots of calls are printing big time while huge amounts of puts are worthless and bleeding money.
Something else we can extrapolate from the charts is that massive options trades are not present on the scale we saw before (tens of thousands).
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We are seeing a discrepancy in the number of puts/calls opening up at the higher prices with calls gaining fast. This could show that some funds are now becoming optimistic on the long or short term prospects of gamestop. There are also more puts than options and if we assume this for shorts vs longs on margin (without even taking into account that all shorts are borrowed shares and pay interest further bleeding cash) then shorts are likely on more margin than longs.
Regardless fellow autists my main point is two show that the bears are underwater and the bulls are flying high with regards to options.
Now lets compare this possible squeeze with others.
Bear in mind this is the most shorted stock of all time, but differences in free float change the share price differently.
Kodak went from $2.16 to $33.2
Volkswagen went from ~200 euro to nearly 1000.
Overstock went from ~$21 to $123
Blue apron went from $2.31 to $18
Ive been seeing some estimated that 1 million shares is roughly a dollars move in share price. This maths is about to be pretty autistic so bear with me degnerates.
$1 now is 2.81% of the share price. Everything in the markets is exponential and based on percentages. So if we assume a full squeeze of ortexs estimated short interest (This assumes no sell off and no new shorts, new shorts can be positive or negative depedning on when in the squeeze they happen) $35.5 * 1.0281^77 = $299. GME to moon. 🌑 .
This shit can happen. Hold on.
GME has squeezed and been manipulated before and it always happens around the console cycles. Shorts never win and they wont win now.

This post right here I found months ago and got me in the squeeze from the honourable and valiant u/Uberkikz aka Rod Alzman
Basically the crayon chart shows green (outstanding shares) orange ( short shares) purple (Market cap) and cyan (Share price). In 2006-2008 the share price rose in tandem with short interest ( Like now ) Until console releases when you can see an abrupt squeeze happend mooning the share price.
This happend to a degree in 2013 with the xbox one but worse conditions for the company and a worse console launch lead to slow short covering but the share price still mooned.
Now we get to the best part. History is repeating itself for the third time and the shares sold short are literally higher than the outstanding shares, which have been decreasing since 2010. Short shares are also at the highest point ever and GME hasnt had a brighter future, well ever. Ps5 and Xbox Series X. are the two most hyped consoles since the Ps2. This is setting up the foundations for massive price movements weve never seen before. This shit has literally never happend, ever. Uncharted waters and we are the captain.
For the insurmountably retarded autists who think that the squeeze has happend look upon this and despair:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kwpf6k/gme_gang_there_hasnt_been_a_short_squeeze_yet/
IHOR IS A MEGA WIZARD
Ihor I quote:
A long-buying tsunami ... is the primary factor for the price move
Ihor Dusaniwsky is managing director of predictive analytics at S3 a firm similar to ortex. He told bloomberg that the squeeze hasnt happend yet and that this was long buying. If someone knows this shit its him. He was talking about the tesla squeeze in january 2020. He has access to resources we can only imagine. Barrons cut his comment that the squeeze hasnt happend yet out it was that fucking bullish. All the media ramming down "Short squeeze has happend" down peoples throats because bears are fucking scared.
The bots on stocktwits spamming bearish sentiment should show how rattled they are.
Edit: You fucking degens just enlightened me that cramer pump is real, funds are ruminating over the long weekend, and stmmy bills pumps stonks and that stimmy bill buys many an xbox. See you at andromeda! Also more rockets.
Edit**: Some autists thought lottery ticket was misleading so instead, gauranteed lottery numbers!**
Edit 3: RYAN FUCKING COHEN TWEETED THE HOMIE JUST TWEETED. PEANUT EMOJI. HES 1) NUTTING 2) SAYING 35 IS PEANUTS 3) GIF SAYS THERES A CHANCE, SHORT SQUEEZE IMMENINT HOMIES
Edit 4: Amazing post here showing that unlucky prize guy was wrong like I said. Ihor also talked about the hypothecation agreement.
Edit 5: This is true and I forgot to add
from u/luncheonmeat79 via /wallstreetbets sent 2 minutes ago
There’s also the chance of a ratings upgrade. Moody’s and S&P have GME at B3 and B-, which is rated “highly speculative”. Ratings are reviewed every quarter, and a review might be due this month (i.e. this coming week or next). Good chance that the agencies might upgrade GME to a B2/B, or even better to the next higher band (Ba/BB).
Edit 6: We are scraping 42 in frankfurt. Granted its low volumes but pre market should open at these prices I think?
Conclusion: Buy shares with cash not margin. Hold shares forever unless RC dies (Shame hes a cybernetic demigod), Melvin bad, Shorts fuk, 🐻 🌈 posting bearish shit are doing weeklies for the second time after they expired red on friday, GME to $200 without squeeze, Ryan cohen a god, GME is still a value play, Good luck have fun.
submitted by TitusSupremus to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Why to REALLY buy GME (Solid DD)

LEGITIMATE ARGUMENT TO INVEST IN GME AT THESE PRICES (Short sqeeze and hype aren't reasons).
Sherman started a turnaround of Gamestop when he first took over April 2019. He cut the dividend, began consolidation (cut some fatty stores), and began debt reduction. COVID threw a wrench in this because he didn't move online nearly fast enough.
When Burry first invested in GME, there was a reason. What reason? He spoke with Sherman about his plans and thought they wouldn't just survive, but thrive. Cohen also had a similar situation, and later of course he got involved. Sherman listens to both, and in their letters to him they basically tell him where he fucked up and how to move Gamestop forward.
Fils-Aimé the Nintendo guy that likes to turn companies around is added to the board. He turns stuff around as a hobby and is an insanely good marketer. This is shown in particular with his Nintendo of America endeavors. u/kitrosreddit told me not to forget about Reggie so I didn't this time (sorry to the 100ish people that saw this a few days ago)
Next up we see the Microsoft deal. Although exact numbers aren't available that I can find, Gamestop will be receiving a royalty from gaming equipment sold via Microsoft. Microsoft is also expanding Gamestop's inventory on the inside and employees will use Microsoft software to run the stores. Microsoft doesn't want Gamestop to fail, nor will they let them. With 27% of new games bought at Gamestop and 40% of used games bought there, Microsoft saw an excellent way to try and compete this console cycle.
We recently saw Gamestop's holiday earnings. With a yearly revenue of roughly $7 bil, they were unprofitable this year. The current P/S ratio makes no sense unless it is expected to go out of business (good luck) or that it will not grow significantly over the coming years (lol). However, this is expected to change with earnings starting in March. They are expected to continue to be profitable moving forward as well. Gamestop still has roughly $500 mil in debt. How are they going to pay this off!!!??? Liquidating stores and consolidation. This was a Cohen continuation idea that Sherman had started, just without the vision to make it succeed. A small stock offering (let's say 2%) would also leave them in an excellent financial situation. Additionally, we have the 300% YOY online sales increase, which accounted for over 30% of total sales. This is only expected to increase moving forward. While overall sales decreased by 3% YOY, inefficient stores were cut out of the picture. Comparative store sales increased by 5% YOY, but this was even stagnated due to state restrictions on 'nonessential' businesses. Places that had significantly fewer COVID numbers had over 30% YOY growth.
Next, we have the Chewy powerhouses joining the board of directors. Out with the old, in with the new. Even though most directors were acquired in 2020, these new additions add incredible value to the company. Sherman listens to Cohen. Cohen and friends had some focuses at Chewy that led to insane amounts of profit. They focused on cutting costs and maximizing efficiency. Expect the same for Gamestop. This was something that can be effectively implemented with all the new leadership. All ears are on Cohen and his ideas to make Gamestop a 1 stop gaming shop.
Most recently were the adds on 2/3/21 Francis: That AWS engineering guy that's now heading technology!? Nice. Durkin: Customer service VP from Chewy is now in charge of Gamestop's customer service!? Fuck yes Chewy has insanely good customer service. Krueger: Big filler boi from Amazon et all now running e-commerce fulfillment!? Dope.
Conservative price target: $200 by mid 2021 with little hype and absent a short squeeze
Tldr: Idc about a squeeze or hype but I like the stock.
But what do I know I'm literally retarded and not a financial advisor... positions 5200 shares GME, 52x covered calls sold exp 2/12, 50x calls bought exp 2/26, a few bucks in cash waiting for a drop if it happens. Tell if I'm wrong somewhere with sources linked please and thank you.
Edit: As requested, my average cost is roughly $60 after buying back in late last week. I had original shares at an average buy in of about $30 assigned to covered calls on 1/29. I believed the company had too much downside at those prices.
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submitted by tarheelsurfer to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Why GameStop and Ryan Cohen will win. [DD] No Diamond Hands Required.

Alright apes and autists, let me explain why I believe GameStop has a strong fundamental case without mentioning diamond hands and short squeeze. If Ryan Cohen can successfully execute his vision, this leaky vessel will turn into a rocket ship blasting past the moon to the edge of the observable universe.
On November 16, 2020, Ryan Cohen sent a letter to the GameStop's Board of Directors titled "Maximizing Stockholder Value by Becoming the Ultimate Destination for Gamers". In it, Ryan Cohen outlined the roadmap for GameStop to pivot and become a technology first company. Let me boil this down for you in simple language for you smooth brain apes.
The Mission Statement
"GameStop needs to evolve into a technology company that delights gamers and delivers exceptional digital experiences [...] the successful and durable players of tomorrow will be technology-first companies that specialize in gaming products, experiences and services."
The Landscape
The Roadmap
The Financials
Analysts are valuing GameStop as a traditional brick-and-mortar business. If Ryan can properly execute and transform the company, I believe they can become the Target and Chewy of Gaming with potential verticals of streaming and Esports (not factored into this calculation for now). GameStop makes roughly $8 Billion in Revenue, however it is currently valued at a $3.5B Market Cap as it bleeds cash. Target makes roughly $78B in Revenue with $3.3B in Net Income and a Market Cap of $96 Billion. Chewy makes roughly $4.8B in Revenue, losing money but growing quickly, and is valued at $44B in Market Cap. Target and Chewy are valued at 1.25x to 9x Price to Sales respectively. This equates to $10B to $72B Market Cap transposed to GameStop. Obviously, this is very simplistic and does not consider their balance sheet and other factors, but given these metrics:
Note this is assuming $8B in Revenue. If GameStop can grow revenues, focus on digital to improve margins, and expand within the growing total addressable market, I see potential for higher prices and achieving Target to Chewy-like multiples.
The X Factor
I believe Ryan Cohen was offered to lead GameStop's transition with significant control and autonomy. Otherwise, I do not believe he would have joined the Board. In his letter, Ryan simply stated that "RC Ventures is not interested in receiving a lone seat on GameStop's ten-member Board. It is not enticing to become an isolated stockholder advocate on a Board that has overlooked years of digital revenue opportunities and presided over massive value destruction without assuming full accountability." With the recent additions of two Chewy Executives to the Board of Directors, a new Chief Technology Officer who was the Engineering Lead in Amazon Web Services, a new Customer Care Executive from Chewy, and a new Fulfillment Executive from Amazon, I believe Ryan is executing his vision and revamping the GameStop team.
Notice his hires are from Chewy and Amazon? Ryan Cohen was obsessed with Amazon’s customer centric philosophy and built Chewy to follow that same model. He is hiring digital and e-commerce focused leaders to manage this transformation. Ryan's customer centric obsession is what allowed Chewy to beat Amazon. If GameStop pivots to digital and follows that same obsession, this will be a great opportunity to win.
Furthermore, I believe Ryan's vision is the right roadmap for GameStop. Digital e-commerce, streaming, and mobile is the future and Ryan fully acknowledges and embraces that future. GameStop will need to revamp and modernize their website and phone app, but I am sure that will follow in the months ahead. GameStop has the financial and brand assets that should weather this storm, but execution will be key. Ryan owns nearly 10% of GameStop, so he has a vested interest in its success and has much more to lose than my stake.
So degens, I say think with your heart and not with your smooth brain. Strap in and sit tight, this rocket ship may turn into a long journey to Mars. Maybe Papa Elon will be our catalyst.
P.S. If we all buy something from GameStop this quarter we can load this rocket ship ourselves.
TLDR; Ryan Cohen is Jesus. Buy and Hold $GME.
submitted by Yonsei to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

CORSAIR EARNINGS PLAY, The DD you've been waiting for

Corsair Gaming ($CRSR)
Redefining gaming, eSports, and streaming
Company Overview
Corsair Gaming is an American computer hardware and peripherals company founded in 1994 and headquartered in California.
They acquired Elgato Gaming in 2018 to expand to the streaming gear market, Origin PC and SCUF gaming in 2019 to expand into the custom-built PC systems and console controllers markets, respectively, and during 2020 they acquired Gamer Sensei and EpocCam, and partnered with Pipeline to grow into the gaming and streaming coaching market.
Corsair went public on September 23, 2020, with its IPO priced at $17, valuing the company at about $1.3B.
Understanding the Business
Value Proposition
Corsair provides specialized, high-performance gear for gamers and streamers. Their products are designed to provide speed and reliability for competitive gaming, high quality content for streamers, and powerful PC components that allows gamers to run modern games smoothly.
Revenue Streams
Currently, Corsair groups its product offering into two segments: gamer and creator peripherals and gaming components and systems.
Gamer and Creator Peripherals:
which represents around 25% of net revenue, includes gaming mice, keyboards, and headsets, streaming gear, and high performance console controllers.
Gaming Components Systems:
which represents around 75% of net revenue includes computer cases, power supply units (PSU), high performance memory products (40% of net revenue), and custom-built gaming systems.
Acquisitions and Partnerships:
During 3Q 2020 Corsair acquired Gamer Sensei, a gaming coaching platform, EpocCam, an app that allows iPhones to serve as a webcam, and partnered with Pipeline, a course-based education platform for streamers.
Industry
Market Size
According to Jon Peddie Research, the global gaming and streaming gear markets is expected to reach $40B by the end of 2020. Before the pandemic JPR estimated the market to grow at a modest 1.05% CAGR until 2022. However, during 2020 the market has grown an estimated 10% year-over-year.
Additionally, DFC Intelligence research estimated that the video-game coaching market surpasses $1B.
Industry Fundamentals
Growth in the gaming and streaming gear industries are driven by strong and robust fundamentals.
Popularity of gaming is increasing:
According to Newzoo, there are an estimated 2.7B gamers worldwide, which are expected to spend $159B on games in 2020 and is expected to grow at an 8.3% CAGR to exceed $200B by 2023. PC and console gaming represents 51% of the total market, and mobile gaming 49%. Corsair has stated that currently there is no interest in expanding to the mobile gaming market.
Tech-driven improvements in game quality:
Advances in computer power have enabled gaming platforms to provide increasingly immersive experiences. This in turn, places increased demand on high-performance computing hardware.
Increasing gaming and streaming engagement:
Some interesting facts reported in the Limelight Networks’ State of Online Gaming 2019 research report include:
The eSports and streaming flywheel
The rise in popularity and viewership of eSports brings more investment from publishers, sponsors, advertisers, team owners, and leagues to the eSports industry. Increased investment brings more players and increased performance focus of gamers who advance from less engaged gaming to high-performance gameplay, which in turn brings more viewers.
Competitive Landscape & Risks
Competition
The gaming and streaming market is characterized by intense competition, constant price pressure and rapid change. Competition across Corsair’s product offering includes:
Gaming keyboards and mice - Logitech and Razer
Headsets and related audio products -Logitech, Razer, and HyperX
Streaming gear - Logitech and AVerMedia
Performance controllers - Microsoft and Logitech
PSUs, cooling solutions, and computer cases - Cooler Master, NZXT, EVGA, Seasonic, and Thermaltake
High performance memory - G.Skill, HyperX, and Micron
Pre-built and custom-built gaming PCs - Alienware (Dell), Omen (HP), Asus, Razer, iBuypower and Cyberpower
Competitive Strategy
The company follows a differentiation leadership strategy by prioritizing high-performance and professional quality and charging a price premium on their products in exchange for superior quality, high value added features, and superior brand recognition.
Market Share
According to NPD Group, by 2020 Corsair had #1 market share position in the US in its gaming components and systems products with 42% of the market share from 26% in 2015. Their gamer and creator peripheral products are not yet market leaders, however, the company increased its market share in that segment from 5% in 2013 to 18% by 2020 in the US.
Growth Strategy
Move into the Asia Pacific region:
The Asia Pacific Region represents a long-term growth opportunity. According to Newzoo, they represent 54% of the global gaming community.
Complimentary acquisitions:
Corsair has carried out this strategy aggressively since 2018 with the acquisitions of Elgato Gaming, Origin PC, SCUF and Gamer Sensei. They plan to continue evaluating and pursuing new acquisitions that may strengthen their competitive position.
New Markets:
Uses of streaming gear has spread into areas including, podcasting, video blogging, interactive fitness, remote learning, and work-from-home, which represent a promising avenue for continued expansion in this product segment.
Threat of New Entrants
Because of the continued convergence between the computing devices and consumer electronics markets, increased competition from well-established consumer electronics companies is expected in the gaming and streaming peripherals segment (e.g. use of Audio-technica microphones by streamers).
Threat of Substitution
A significant medium- to long-term risk for Corsair’s business model is the evolution of cloud computing and augmented/virtual reality entertainment.
Cloud computing refers to a computing environment in which software is run on third-party servers and accessed by end users over the internet, requiring minimal processing power from the end-user’s system. Through cloud computing, gamers will be able to access and play sophisticated games without the need of expensive high-performance PC systems and components.
According to Grand View Research, the global cloud gaming market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 48% from 2020 to reach $7.2B by 2027.
Additionally, Corsair must be able to adapt its product offering to meet the needs of the evolving augmented/virtual reality industry.
Moats
There does not seem to be any relevant, structural moats, that may prohibit competitors from capturing Corsair’s market share across their product offering.
Other Relevant Risks
Due to the concentration of their production facilities in Taiwan and China, Corsair may be adversely by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes.
Financial Summary
Proforma Balance Sheet
https://postimg.cc/QHgY1ZxL
Income Statement
https://postimg.cc/qNkbGDzN
For the 9 months ended September 2020 compared to the same period last year:
The 49% increase in net revenue is mostly attributed to a large number of consumers gaming and working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The company’s gross margin is influenced by its product mix for the period, gamer and creator peripherals have a higher gross margin (25-35%) than gaming components and systems (15-25%).
Proforma Cashflow Statement
https://postimg.cc/XXCzNyRY
Cash used in investing activities consists primarily on the acquisitions of Elgato in 2018, and SCUF and Origin PC in 2019.
Peer Comparison
https://postimg.cc/Whcfd1V6
Logitech International (LOGI) and Micron Technologies (MU)
Why am I posting this now?
I believe they are going to have very strong 4th quarter 2020 earning results. 2020 had record pc sales,and pc video games has reported record numbers of players. They are in my opinion the leading pc peripherals brand for gamers. Q4 Earnings Include both Black Friday and Christmas Sales
Record pc sales:
https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/record-pc-sales-in-2020-as-covid-limits-work-education-to-homes/story/427858.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20data,units%20in%20Q4%20of%202020&text=COVID%2D19%20pandemic%20has%20turned,personal%20computer%20(PC)%20industry%20industry).
Google trends:
https://imgur.com/oKPn6R5
My price target for this earnings: $65 EDIT: (EOM)
TLDR: $CRSR will crush Q4 earnings 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀
Position: 60 Contracts 40c exp 2/19
disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH
credit: u/italiansomali and u/erythaean
submitted by asaddoc to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

$CRSR Corsair DD / Earnings play

Corsair Gaming ($CRSR)
Redefining gaming, eSports, and streaming
Company Overview
Corsair Gaming is an American computer hardware and peripherals company founded in 1994 and headquartered in California.
They acquired Elgato Gaming in 2018 to expand to the streaming gear market, Origin PC and SCUF gaming in 2019 to expand into the custom-built PC systems and console controllers markets, respectively, and during 2020 they acquired Gamer Sensei and EpocCam, and partnered with Pipeline to grow into the gaming and streaming coaching market.
Corsair went public on September 23, 2020, with its IPO priced at $17, valuing the company at about $1.3B.
Understanding the Business
Value Proposition
Corsair provides specialized, high-performance gear for gamers and streamers. Their products are designed to provide speed and reliability for competitive gaming, high quality content for streamers, and powerful PC components that allows gamers to run modern games smoothly.
Revenue Streams
Currently, Corsair groups its product offering into two segments: gamer and creator peripherals and gaming components and systems.
Gamer and Creator Peripherals:
which represents around 25% of net revenue, includes gaming mice, keyboards, and headsets, streaming gear, and high performance console controllers.
Gaming Components Systems:
which represents around 75% of net revenue includes computer cases, power supply units (PSU), high performance memory products (40% of net revenue), and custom-built gaming systems.
Acquisitions and Partnerships:
During 3Q 2020 Corsair acquired Gamer Sensei, a gaming coaching platform, EpocCam, an app that allows iPhones to serve as a webcam, and partnered with Pipeline, a course-based education platform for streamers.
Industry
Market Size
According to Jon Peddie Research, the global gaming and streaming gear markets is expected to reach $40B by the end of 2020. Before the pandemic JPR estimated the market to grow at a modest 1.05% CAGR until 2022. However, during 2020 the market has grown an estimated 10% year-over-year.
Additionally, DFC Intelligence research estimated that the video-game coaching market surpasses $1B.
Industry Fundamentals
Growth in the gaming and streaming gear industries are driven by strong and robust fundamentals.
Popularity of gaming is increasing:
According to Newzoo, there are an estimated 2.7B gamers worldwide, which are expected to spend $159B on games in 2020 and is expected to grow at an 8.3% CAGR to exceed $200B by 2023. PC and console gaming represents 51% of the total market, and mobile gaming 49%. Corsair has stated that currently there is no interest in expanding to the mobile gaming market.
Tech-driven improvements in game quality:
Advances in computer power have enabled gaming platforms to provide increasingly immersive experiences. This in turn, places increased demand on high-performance computing hardware.
Increasing gaming and streaming engagement:
Some interesting facts reported in the Limelight Networks’ State of Online Gaming 2019 research report include:
The eSports and streaming flywheel
The rise in popularity and viewership of eSports brings more investment from publishers, sponsors, advertisers, team owners, and leagues to the eSports industry. Increased investment brings more players and increased performance focus of gamers who advance from less engaged gaming to high-performance gameplay, which in turn brings more viewers.
Competitive Landscape & Risks
Competition
The gaming and streaming market is characterized by intense competition, constant price pressure and rapid change. Competition across Corsair’s product offering includes:
Gaming keyboards and mice - Logitech and Razer
Headsets and related audio products -Logitech, Razer, and HyperX
Streaming gear - Logitech and AVerMedia
Performance controllers - Microsoft and Logitech
PSUs, cooling solutions, and computer cases - Cooler Master, NZXT, EVGA, Seasonic, and Thermaltake
High performance memory - G.Skill, HyperX, and Micron
Pre-built and custom-built gaming PCs - Alienware (Dell), Omen (HP), Asus, Razer, iBuypower and Cyberpower
Competitive Strategy
The company follows a differentiation leadership strategy by prioritizing high-performance and professional quality and charging a price premium on their products in exchange for superior quality, high value added features, and superior brand recognition.
Market Share
According to NPD Group, by 2020 Corsair had #1 market share position in the US in its gaming components and systems products with 42% of the market share from 26% in 2015. Their gamer and creator peripheral products are not yet market leaders, however, the company increased its market share in that segment from 5% in 2013 to 18% by 2020 in the US.
Growth Strategy
Move into the Asia Pacific region:
The Asia Pacific Region represents a long-term growth opportunity. According to Newzoo, they represent 54% of the global gaming community.
Complimentary acquisitions:
Corsair has carried out this strategy aggressively since 2018 with the acquisitions of Elgato Gaming, Origin PC, SCUF and Gamer Sensei. They plan to continue evaluating and pursuing new acquisitions that may strengthen their competitive position.
New Markets:
Uses of streaming gear has spread into areas including, podcasting, video blogging, interactive fitness, remote learning, and work-from-home, which represent a promising avenue for continued expansion in this product segment.
Threat of New Entrants
Because of the continued convergence between the computing devices and consumer electronics markets, increased competition from well-established consumer electronics companies is expected in the gaming and streaming peripherals segment (e.g. use of Audio-technica microphones by streamers).
Threat of Substitution
A significant medium- to long-term risk for Corsair’s business model is the evolution of cloud computing and augmented/virtual reality entertainment.
Cloud computing refers to a computing environment in which software is run on third-party servers and accessed by end users over the internet, requiring minimal processing power from the end-user’s system. Through cloud computing, gamers will be able to access and play sophisticated games without the need of expensive high-performance PC systems and components.
According to Grand View Research, the global cloud gaming market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 48% from 2020 to reach $7.2B by 2027.
Additionally, Corsair must be able to adapt its product offering to meet the needs of the evolving augmented/virtual reality industry.
Moats
There does not seem to be any relevant, structural moats, that may prohibit competitors from capturing Corsair’s market share across their product offering.
Other Relevant Risks
Due to the concentration of their production facilities in Taiwan and China, Corsair may be adversely by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes.
Financial Summary
Proforma Balance Sheet
https://postimg.cc/QHgY1ZxL
Income Statement
https://postimg.cc/qNkbGDzN
For the 9 months ended September 2020 compared to the same period last year:
The 49% increase in net revenue is mostly attributed to a large number of consumers gaming and working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The company’s gross margin is influenced by its product mix for the period, gamer and creator peripherals have a higher gross margin (25-35%) than gaming components and systems (15-25%).
Proforma Cashflow Statement
https://postimg.cc/XXCzNyRY
Cash used in investing activities consists primarily on the acquisitions of Elgato in 2018, and SCUF and Origin PC in 2019.
Peer Comparison
https://postimg.cc/Whcfd1V6
Logitech International (LOGI) and Micron Technologies (MU)
Why am I posting this now?
I believe they are going to have very strong 4th quarter 2020 earning results. 2020 had record pc sales,and pc video games has reported record numbers of players. They are in my opinion the leading pc peripherals brand for gamers. They also have strong support from wallstreetbets.
Record pc sales:
https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/record-pc-sales-in-2020-as-covid-limits-work-education-to-homes/story/427858.html#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20latest%20data,units%20in%20Q4%20of%202020&text=COVID%2D19%20pandemic%20has%20turned,personal%20computer%20(PC)%20industry%20industry).
Google trends:
https://imgur.com/oKPn6R5
My price target for this earnings: $55
disclaimer:I am not a financial advisor. Do not trade based on the information I have posted.
credit: u/italiansomali and u/erythaean
submitted by erythaean to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

🚀💎🙌 GME (Almost-)ULTIMATE DD 🙌💎🚀

🚀💎🙌 GME (Almost-)ULTIMATE DD 🙌💎🚀

EDIT 3 : CONGRATS TO ALL GME HOLDERS. TRUELY HONORED TO BE PART OF THE GME FAM. 🚀

Introduction

PDF VERSION HERE (20+ pages) with all the references and better quality illustrations but without updates and typo corrections. This is the FIRST VERSION of the post, but there could be more edits. I wanted to do a more extensive DD but as my exams start tomorrow I don’t have more time. If you want to take my work and extend it, please feel free to do so, just give a little shout out.
FIRST AND FOREMOST, SHOUTOUT TO 🚀💎🙌 GME GANG 💎🙌 🚀, YOU’RE IN MY ❤️.
This DD is just my own analysis. I put my money where my mouth is but this is definitely not advice. Do your own DD.
Last thing: Some stuff might be unsourced in this post but everything is sourced in the pdf version. While it’s not impossible that I might have missed some stuff, most of the time I put the stuff that I quote from other sources in italics. My ego is not big enough to feel like reformulating other people’s ideas and even less to steal other people's ideas. All I do is just gather insightful facts, figures, ideas and analysis.

Big picture

1.1 Macroeconomic View

I will be brief here, I think everyone knows what’s up basically.
Figure 1: although the USD is worth a lot less, the S&P 500 is doing alright. Thanks Jerome.
Enthusiasm is the key word here as we are in an environment with a very accommodative monetary and fiscal policy (thanks for the stimulus checks). Equities and Bitcoin hit record highs thanks to positive vaccine news and the markets hope for a fiscal package. The Federal Reserve is going heavy on asset purchases, bailouts and loans. And its balance sheet is expanding as well as money supply. Interest rates are extremely low.
Check for example, the Shiller PE ratio to see the enthusiasm driving the markets.
On a macro-level side from the risks related to the pandemic, the only worrying signs would be the shrinking money velocity or a suddenly-rising inflation (hyperinflation is bullish for stocks but not for the real economy).
That being said, we know how the FED and the government reacted to support the economy and the markets. Low interest rates and weak US dollar which is continuing to depreciate is very bullish for stocks overall.
I keep the macroeconomic view very short for that GME correlation with the S&P 500 is low - about 28% over the last 6 months. Moreover despite GME’s heavy reliance on brick-and-mortar stores, GME continues to get closer to profitability even with the pandemic.
If the pandemic would make the stock market to crash again during the trade, I wouldn't sell at a loss but wait a few days and then buy a LEAPS. This is my plan. Don't follow it, just make sure you have a plan in case it happens, it's important to avoid buying too much the first dip (because you might get a better price later) or worse, avoid a panic-selling and take a loss instead of tendies.

1.2 Sector(s) View

Figure 4: Video game market value worldwide from 2012 to 2023 (in billion USD)
Figure 5: Retail ecommerce sales in the United States from 2017 to 2024 (in million USD)
Video game total adressable market and ecommerce total adressable market keep growing, that's all we need to know on a macro-level. Now, the real question is not about the market itself but about the compny business model.

GameStop Corp.

  • Market cap $1.31B
  • 1-year performance 209.87%
  • Shares outstanding 69.75M
  • Short interest 68.13M (97.68% of the outstanding shares)
  • Held by insiders Between 13.6% to 27.3%
  • Held by institutions Between 110.5% to 122.0%
  • Owned by Ryan Cohen 12.9%
  • Owned by BlackRock 17.1%

2.2 Timeline


Table 1: GameStop timeline.
Short-term the sector is pretty hot with quarantines and the launch of next-generation consoles which will impact positively year-on-year sales growth. The pandemic could have been an opportunity but GME has still too many physical stores and not enough ecommerce presence yet to take advantage of it.
For the next earning release, the question is : how much PS5 and Xbox GameStop was able to get? And how much they sold in bundles (at high margins)?
Although it’s still unclear from what I’ve found it’s pretty bullish:
GameStop Corp. employees across the country were caught by surprise on Saturday when the video-game chain suddenly announced new shipments of the highly coveted PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X consoles - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-14/gamestop-employees-rattled-by-surprise-shipment-of-ps4-xbox
inverse.com/gaming/xbox-series-x-restock-walmart-target-gamestop-january-2021
https://preview.redd.it/h8lt7bwhd6961.png?width=774&format=png&auto=webp&s=e29536613629d3d86bce03bc9e4a89a4e983c337
Figure 6 : https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=gamestop

https://preview.redd.it/n42qka5prw961.jpg?width=1030&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e634ddea7ccf954277a70e57ffa4e957badff22b
The recent Microsoft deal is extremely bullish for GameStop and could help the company to reach profitability sooner than expected. Here are the details about how it could impact GameStop’s profitability:
  • In years 3 and 4 combined, if just 5 million customers extend the subscription for two years, GameStop makes $180 million in incremental profit with zero cost involved. That's nearly a quarter of GameStop's current market cap in recurring income at 100% margin. - Justin Dopierala, “GameStop Revenue Sharing Agreement With Microsoft Shifts Sentiment.” SeekingAlpha.

2.2 Business Model and Management

  • Gamestop is omnichanneling into online activities according to Ryan Cohen recommendations although it doesn’t mean they will execute it perfectly this is bullish.
    • GameStop needs to evolve into a technology company that delights gamers and delivers exceptional digital experiences – not remain a video game retailer that overprioritizes its brick-and-mortar footprint and stumbles around the online ecosystem.” Ryan Cohen.
Table 2: GameStop is dangerously (for the shorts) getting close to profitability.
  • The company attributes the losses this quarter to the end of the console cycle and the limited hardware and accessory availability that came with that, as well as various game delays, and an 11% reduction in its store base - partially offset by recaptured sales at other locations and online. → The company should be profitable very soon despite being priced for bankruptcy for a long time → Expectations are incrediblly low until recently, more investors are believing in the vision esp. with Ryan Cohen.
  • GME e-commerce sales were up 257% year-over-year.
  • GME reduced its selling, general, and administrative expenses by $115 million.
  • GME repaid $10 million in debt in Q3 2020.
  • GME is diversifying sales to include more high margin items like PC accessories, PC monitors, etc (If I speculate, there may be partnerships with certain brands).
  • Focusing on loyalty programs like power ups and rebranding.
  • As of Feb. 2020, GameStop had 5,509 physical stores.
  • GME is closing unprofitable locations: they are closing 1,000 stores in Q1 2021 (by the end of March of 2021).
    • I’d like to quote a fellow GME gang member on this: It's no secret that brick and mortar is falling off, and if GameStop were to fight tooth and nail to remain a largely brick and mortar retailer they would go bankrupt in no time. It is also a fact that underperforming stores drain cash, which lowers net income and thus lowers earnings per share. Any store that is LOSING MONEY or is barely breaking even is keeping the stock price down because it's preventing future growth and killing net incomes. Closing underperforming stores will lead to a higher EPS and more cash that can be allocated to growth. - horny131313.
  • Gamestop is rebranding, and shifting to becoming the one stop video game and video game related product online retailer. While we haven't seen exactly what this will be, it is bullish to see them pivoting into other products besides just video games. Headsets, TVS, PC parts, you name it. You've seen the omnichannel memes, but we know that If they are bullshitting, Cohen will step in. Expect to see real progress made.
Some words from the last earnings:
  • "We anticipate, for the first time in many quarters, that the fourth quarter will include positive year-on-year sales growth and profitability*, reflecting the introduction of* new gaming consoles*, our* elevated omni-channel capabilities and continued benefits from our cost and efficiency initiatives*, even with the potential further negative impacts on our operations due to the global COVID-19 pandemic.*" George Sherman, CEO.
Possible catalysts (from KYJELLYTIME69):
  • A possible new Nintendo console release in ~1-2 years
  • Currently distressed commercial REITs = ability to negotiate lower rent = more $$$
  • Likely return of inflation (debatable but money supply ballooned and we are seeing velocity pick up a bit) with JPOW promising to keep rates at 0% even when inflation comes back = bullish for all stocks, bears will get slaughtered
  • OG printer Yellen manning the treasury in a month + possible dem senate = more stimmy checks = more money going into GME
  • If sales improve and balance sheets continue improve, we might see more credit upgrades
  • Better sales = possible dividend reinstatement, I couldn't care less about dividends but guess who's going to be paying? The shorts lol. If Sherman had balls, he would pull an OSTK and announce a special dividend , which will actually lead to a short squeeze while wsb laughs collectively as we get meme returns from this boomer move.

2.3 The Short-Squeeze Thesis


Figure 6: Stare statistics from Oct. 2019 to Nov. 2020
In terms of metrics, the DTC (days-to-cover) actually decreases, lowering the probability to get a short-squeeze short-term. Don’t get me wrong, this DOESN’T mean that it can’t happen, the % of shares shorted is still crazy high.
Days to cover: It gives investors an idea of potential future buying pressure. In the event of a rally in the stock, short sellers must buy back shares on the open market to close out their positions. Understandably, they will seek to purchase the shares back for the lowest price possible, and this urgency to get out of their positions could translate into sharp moves higher. The longer the buyback process takes, as referenced by the 'days to cover' metric, the longer the price rally may continue based solely on the need of short sellers to close their positions. Additionally, a high 'days to cover' ratio can often signal a potential short squeeze. This information can benefit a trader looking to make a quick profit by buying that company's shares ahead of the anticipated event actually coming to fruition. (Investopedia).
In terms of corporate actions, here is a quote from September mentioning the hostile takeover from Ryan which would trigger a massive short-squeeze, here is the explanation:
Short Squeeze Potential - If Ryan Cohen successfully negotiates a purchase price with the Board then the shareholders will have to vote on it. Unlike the proxy battle where Hestia and Permit were running a minority slate of directors, an offer to purchase GameStop would force institutions like Vanguard and Blackrock to call in their shares. By doing so, the shorts would be forced to close out their positions and GameStop would finally have the greatest short squeeze of all-time. Ironically, Cohen could use this opportunity to sell all of his shares and use the proceeds to entirely fund the acquisition of GameStop going down as the first person in history to acquire a billion dollar company... for absolutely nothing. In fact, his acquisition price would be less than zero. It will be exciting to see how it all plays out as according to Bloomberg/WSJ there are now 58 million shares short as of 8/31/2020 with only 65 million shares outstanding.
If I were short, I'd be sweating bullets right now. This won't end well and will ruin many.
Justin Dopierala is President and Founder of DOMO Capital.
How to know when the potential short-squeeze could happen?
  • Massive volume in short dated calls. [...] If you have shares, DO NOT SELL COVERED CALLS FROM THEM. by doing this you make the likelihood of a squeeze decrease. - horny131313
  • Unwind their short position with some behind closed doors deal. A scenario like this could include: Melvin offering shares of other stocks at discounted prices in exchange for GME shares or to unload a portion of their short shares. The second party to this deal could also offer to buy GME shares for higher than market prices - horny131313
If you want to do a further analysis on short-metrics I put some additional figures - you might find some kind of pattern idk.
Figure 8: Share statistics of December 2020
Figure 9: Available shares to short vs. fees in %.

2.4 Is GME Manipulated?

Maybe.
I know there is actually a prob. with the % daily returns (it isn't equal to 100% BUT the proportions still hold true on a non 100 point basis). The main point is that: negative daily returns were much higher than positive ones.
If you are familiar with the stock market, you might have noticed that winners do not act like this usually: total return was +21% yet there has been 53.3% red days. If you look at regular stocks which have positive cumulative returns it doesn’t happen that often (outliers aside).
This is why I suspect that the stock is being manipulated but the weird stats might be explained just because the stock kept being shorted although it was not enough to keep the price down.
Another opinion on this:
  • Melvin and BoA both have short positions, and are desperately trying to drive the price down. Unfortunately, it is getting harder and harder to convince people that gamestop is a failing business. They are sweating and will continue to sweat. Given the buy side volume, they could close these short positions gradually without triggering a massive squeeze, however it WILL drive the price up significantly higher than it is now. - horny131313.

2.5 What 2020 Has Taught Us?

I think at this point it is the wrong question to ask (is the stock being manipulated?). To me, the most important thing is what is the upside potential and the risks associated? Then, how to trade GME?
  • If you're new to gamestop, the volatility will seem scary but the shorts fight hard with this one. -10% days followed by +20% days are not unusual. - horny131313
I would like to elaborate on this very idea. For this, check GME statistics for 2020:
https://preview.redd.it/t05xum2zc6961.png?width=764&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2e092560bba3b3091a6fe8bf0bceea2ce7b9f5c
https://preview.redd.it/odbxo3sxc6961.png?width=772&format=png&auto=webp&s=7897f1dac841aa381b916046c3652e2d2c4ece68
  • Whether the stock is manipulated or not, MOST of the 2020 trading days were negative.
  • The worst daily returns were hard to handle honestly we are talking multiple worst than 14% daily drawdowns.
  • You could more than triple your money WITHOUT LEVERAGE.
  • Let’s say you bought late Apr. and sold late Aug. you could have been at -13% returns and +31% the next week if you had diamond hands. For the real diamond hands you had +147% returns the next 2 months.
Psychologically this was a hard trade for sure. But for those who had diamond hands, it was pretty amazing. If you don’t feel comfortable being at -20% or even -30% returns for months before the stock literally BLOWS UP… Reduce your position and diamond hand with a smaller size. Better to win with less than lose with a lot…
TLTR: DIAMOND-HAND THIS OR DON’T TRADE THIS AT ALL.

Risks

3.1 Upside Risks

  • RC Ventures LLC increases its stake.
    • It could be VERY soon. On the 31 December 2020, someone bought 900K shares, it could be Ryan Cohen given the size of its last purchases:
Figure 10: Last RC Ventures GME Purchases. Notice how the biggest numbers (e.g. 800K & 500K) while the smaller ones weren't (e.g. 320K, 256K or 128K).
Figure 11: Check who tweeted this on the same date as the 900K shares purchase?
EDIT : the recent 900K-share purchase after hours were not "purchases", it was quarterly option settlement. - KYJELLYTIME69.
  • This is very bullish because after the disclosure of additional buying from Cohen last time, even though it strangely took 1 full trading day for the market to pop up, GME shot up 29%.
  • Surprise investors with their holiday sales and/or EPS.
  • RC Ventures LLC gets more than one seat on the board.
  • RC Ventures LLC begins a hostile takeover.
    • On top of its increasing stake, Ryan is supported by both a lot of small and now large investors too.
    • Moreover “there is a decent amount of evidence that Ryan Cohen spent the summer of 2020 hiring a badass lawyer and crafting a pretty solid plan to wrest control of a struggling Mall-based gaming retailer from its out of touch Boomer Board and CEO so he can turn it into an ecommerce juggernaut like his baby Chewy. the attorney listed on each of the 13Ds filed by RC Ventures. [...] Chris Davis, Activist Attorney Extraordinaire and His Successful Use of the Consent Solicitation to Remove Dipshit Boards/CEOs” - CPTHubbard.
  • Moody's Upgrades GameStop's credit rating a second time in a row
    • Hoping for a PR soon confirming the recent redemption of the 2021 notes. Potential credit upgrade from Moodys could come now that GME has officially redeemed 63% of their 2021 notes. If we don't get that now, we should get it in March when the entirety of the 2021 notes are retired. Debt considered investment grade and not junk is a big positive and one most overlook. - Stonksflyingup
  • Short sellers close a part of their position huge short position.
  • A major hedge fund takes a significant position on GME.
  • Dividend reintroduction.

3.2 Downside Risks

  • New short sellers open a position and current ones scale up theirs.
  • Momentum towards profitability dies out and the company goes bankrupt.
    • Honestly if you read this far you know this is extremely unlikely.
  • Share dilution.

3.3 Overview


Table 6: Upside risks
Table 7: Downside risks

3.4 Commentary

Figure 12: GME is one of or even THE most shorted stock for its valuation (in terms of % short interest).
This means two things:
  • It is very unlikely for the shorts to continue to short the company especially when its credit rating is being upgraded - we will see if it keeps getting upgraded or not in March.
  • If the shorts get to short it more (or new short sellers open a position) it will:
    • Drive the stock price down (lower market cap), drive the short ratio higher making the unwinding of the short sellers even harder and as a result making the probability to have a short-squeeze VERY BIG if good events happen moving forward.
    • Push Ryan Cohen to accelerate its plans.
      • I will personally increase my share-position if it happens.

Conclusion

4.1 Prices Targets

Here is a summary of my post:
When the short % of free float went from a high point (~160%) at around February 2020 to a low point (~140%) - which by the way are in absolute terms both huge numbers- the stock went up ~94% BUT most of the gain took place at 2 key moments: at the recovery of the market crash and then in late August which shows that 💎🙌-ing is key to capture most of the gains.
Figure 13: GME returns from 3 Feb. 2020 to 1 Sept. 2020
Why do I say this? Because when holding the stock you could “feel” like you bled when you watch the stats:
Positive daily returns Negative daily returns
49.3 % 50.7 %
But IT WAS IN FACT THE SHORT SELLERS WHO BLED HARD:
Best daily return Worst daily return
23.0 % -13.7 %
Imagine you sold GME when the -13.7% happened. You would not have captured the 94% returns. So just 💎🙌 and let those shorts go bankrupt.
Table 8: PTs.

4.2 Valuations

“Wallstreetbets - GME 4Q20 Financial Model 🚀 🚀 🚀.” Reddit, www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kh9na8/gme_4q20_financial_model/.
“GameStop Rips Higher as Hedgeye Pitches the Long Side of the Trade.” SeekingAlpha, 23 Dec. 2020, seekingalpha.com/news/3647009-gamestop-rips-higher-hedgeye-pitches-long-side-of-trade.
Thanks for reading.

4.4 Letter to the GME Gang

💎🙌 🚀
BIG SHOUT OUT TO THE ALL THE MEMBERS OF THE GME GANG.
I WILL MAKE MORE DDs IN THE FUTURE IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE.
I AM NOT DELUSIONAL OR COMPLETELY DUMB I KNOW THE TRADE IS RISKY BUT IF WE ARE RIGHT, WE WILL MOON THAT IS FOR SURE.
LET’S MAKE HISTORY WITH THIS ONE.
GME GANG 4 LIFE.
Sincerely yours,
ShortTheNasdaq, a proud member of the GME gang.
💎🙌 🚀
EDIT 2: Delos Capital Advisors turns BULLISH for GME throughout 2021 (https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/01/05/stocks-to-buy-in-2021-strategist-names-three-top-picks.html).
MORE LINKS (not included in the pdf):
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/implied-volatility-surging-gamestop-gme-135401645.html
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/krdqp5/gme_4q20_financial_model_update/
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/krgvq6/gme_gang_digital_is_the_rebirth_of_gamestop_not/
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kr98ym/gme_gang_we_need_to_complain_about_naked_short/
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/kr02y8/gme_gang_18_consecutive_days_on_nyse_threshold/
https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-stock-soars-as-short-sellers-take-a-hit-51610572262
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-13/heavily-shorted-gamestop-soars-most-ever-as-day-traders-circle
FAQ 1 : Is GameStop going bankrupt? 300%+ yearly growth ecom sales, already closing top ~20% of their most unprofitable locations, high margin partnership with Microsoft, new gaming console generation, Moody's recent credit upgrade on 8 Jul 2020 from C (negative outlook) to B3 (stable outlook)... So extremely unlikely.
FAQ 2 : GameStop employees complain about the company, so is the stock going down? Well listen to Apple's iPhone manufacturers or Amazon employees... There is no correlation between their words and the stock price, if any there is a negative one.
Positions: shares, Nov. calls and some cash on the sidelines to buy the dips.
PDF VERSION HERE (20+ pages) without the corrections and updates but with ALL the references if you want to work from this post or dive deeper on certain points.
submitted by ShortTheNasdaq to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

An in-depth look at 18* unannounced PlayStation 5 exclusives | Including a new FROM SOFTWARE collab

Arrowhead Game Studios (Magicka, Gauntlet, Helldivers)
Testament
In 2016, Arrowhead started to work on their first ever AAA game - a project that would require not only the attention of the entire team, but also to grow the studio way beyond the 35 employees that worked on Arrowhead around that time. That's why in 2017 they moved into a bigger office where they could accommodate all of their staff - both old and new.
Then in 2018, Arrowhead's co-founder stated in an interview that they were making a third-person game this time around and, due to the change in perspective, moving the focus from local co-op to making it purely online co-op. Friendly fire is confirmed to be making a return.
In early 2019, some Arrowhead developers were spotted at GDC wearing jackets with a "Testament Dev Team" written in the back. While recapping 2019, it was stated on the Arrowhead website that they had made a "butt-ton of progress" on the game and that by the end of the year the studio had already grown to roughly 60 people.
Bend Studio (Siphon Filter, Days Gone)
Days Gone
Days Gone ends on a cliffhanger, but so did The Order 1886 and, well, we all know how that ended up - so let's delve a bit deeper into why Days Gone 2 will be a thing.
In 2019, a couple of weeks before the game's launch, a Sony PR guy said that Days Gone was seen as a "franchise" in Sony's eyes, stating that "the goal is always to make a game that people love and want more of". One month later, the game came out and delivered some surprisingly solid numbers not only at launch but also throughout the year, thanks to the good word-of-mouth it had amongst the community.
According to snort_cannon, the success of the game came as a surprise even to Sony, who was expecting Days Gone to be the disappointment and Death Stranding being the one doing crazy numbers.
Later that year, Bend Studio managing director Chris Reese kind of teased that a sequel was in the works when asked about it during an interview: "This is a world that we want to keep breathing more life into, and explore many, many different avenues. So who knows, we'll see!"
Bluepoint Games (Metal Gear Solid, Uncharted, Shadow of the Colossus, Demon's Souls)
Bloodborne Remastered
In May 2020, NeoGAF user Celine.D.Sykes - who previously discussed this project in February 2019 on the ResetEra forums - talked about the Bloodborne remaster in greater detail: "During my time on ResetEra, I only knew that From Software wanted Bloodborne to release on PC. Unfortunately, a PC port would need a lot of work […] and reworking Bloodborne's engine would take a great amount of work. The game logic is tied to framerate, among many other baffling decisions. The last time From Software tried to change the inner logic of an engine; it resulted in the infamous PC port of the first Dark Souls."
"Making a long story short, Sony said they were interested in a potential Bloodborne remaster for PS5, with a lot more work done, like some QoL added and some cut-content being introduced. Both From Software and Sony agreed to not just up the resolution and the framerate, but to make something great. FromSoftware has been authorized to release the game on PC, but only some months after the remaster hits PS5."
"Last time I heard about it, Bloodborne remaster would be part of PS5 line-up, but I don't quite believe it since I think the spotlight will be stolen by another similar title [Demon's Souls] that should be announced in June. I think they might save the Bloodborne remaster for some months after PS5 release, but I could be wrong about that particular point."
According to another report by a different source, the game is being developed by both QLOC - the studio behind 2018's Dark Souls: Remastered - and Bluepoint Games. Now that Demon's Souls is out and considering how far along Bloodborne Remastered has been reported to be, I wouldn't be surprised if it is currently planned to be revealed at The Game Awards.
Unannounced
On November 20th 2020, in response to a user who claimed that the rumored Bluepoint acquisition by Sony would be very boring as far as hype goes, KatharsisT said: "If you knew what Bluepoint is on at the moment, you wouldn't say that (Yeah, it's a hype post [and] you'll have to wait to know what it is)". Shortly after that, a mod stepped in to say that "KatharsisT has shown sufficient evidence to support this claim."
A couple of posts later, MarsipanRumpan - the guy behind the Bluepoint acquisition rumor - also backed the statements made by KatharsisT "I’m totally on your side. Talked with my source, I think we have the same info regarding their next remake. People who aren’t hyped for Bluepoint don’t know what their next project is as you said. Because that shit is [mindblowing]."
Regarding the rumors of a Metal Gear Solid remake, all I'm gonna say is: don't listen to what Moore's Law is Dead and other youtubers are saying, it is all bullshit; but at the same time don't lose faith, as chances of Bluepoint's next remake being MGS are high, considering how it seems they're working on a bigger and more prestigious title than Demon's Souls and also the good relationship Sony currently has with Konami.
From Software (Dark Souls, Bloodborne, Deráciné)
Unannounced
A couple of weeks ago, MarsipanRumpan - the guy who recently reported about Bluepoint's acquisition on ResetEra - said that he has heard that Sony is in talks with From Software regarding the making of a new PS5 exclusive directed by Hidetaka Miyazaki. This would be the third game From has currently in their pipeline, with Elden Ring and a new Armored Core being the other two.
MarsipanRumpan also clarified that it will be a while before we see this new game in motion anyway.
Guerrilla Games (Killzone, Horizon)
Unannounced
In February 2018, Simon Larouche - former multiplayer designer on Killzone 2, R6 Patriots and Splinter Cell: Blacklist, as well as game director on R6 Siege - joins Guerrilla as game director, starting to work on an unannounced project completely unrelated to the Horizon sequel (now known as Forbidden West), which was also in development at the time. Then in July, Hermen Hulst announced plans for Guerrilla to move into a new, bigger office where they could expand their staff count from 250 to 400 people, allowing them to make games faster and release a new title every two to three years.
In October 2018, Chris Lee - former multiplayer designer on several SOCOM titles at Slant Six Games and on Ubisoft's R6 Siege - joins Guerrilla as principal game designer on Larouche's project. Apart from the fact that Lee's hiring makes it pretty clear that Guerrilla's second team is working on a shooter game of some sorts, it's worth pointing out that Lee lists "cooperative and competitive multiplayer, open world systemic gameplay and online social experiences" as his current interests on his LinkedIn profile - with the open world bit being especially interesting as it was also mentioned in certain job listings for the project in 2019.
In August 2020, Guerrilla finally moved to their new office, which means the studio is now ready to begin large-scale recruiting on its second project once they see it fit - although I don't expect to hear about this project until after the release of Forbidden West in the second half of 2021.
Insomniac Games (Resistance, Ratchet & Clank, Marvel's Spider-Man)
Marvel's Spider-Man 2
The recently released Marvel's Spider-Man Miles Morales entered development in May 2018 under the direction of Brian Horton, while Bryan Intihar was finishing up his work on the original Marvel's Spider-Man, which came out in September of that year. So right after wrapping up the first game and with Miles Morales in the hands of a separate team, Intihar started preparing the next main entry in the series as teased in January 2019 when he posted on Twitter "Few things are more nerve-wracking than sharing your first story draft to others."
Japan Studio (Gravity Rush, The Last Guardian, Astro)
RaySpace
Sometime in spring 2014, a couple of weeks before E3, Reddit user Ruin4r leaked a number of titles in development exclusively for PS4, including a new God of War, The Last Guardian, a The Last Of Us sequel, Dead Don't Ride (later confirmed to be Days Gone's codename) and an "unnamed space game" - which by the way wasn't Santa Monica Studio's cancelled new IP for PS4, as that project was axed earlier that year.
A year later, Shuhei Yoshida stated in an interview at E3 2015 that "Japan Studio is now producing a really great project that I'm really excited about" - which also wasn't Gravity Rush 2, as that title was referenced as a different project later in the interview.
In April 2016, Ruin4r said that all the games previously teased by him were still in development and clarified that many of them - God of War, TLOU2, Days Gone and the "unnamed space game" - were in early stages when he first talked about them.
Then on June 6th 2016, during a livestream in celebration of Famitsu's 30th Anniversary, SIE's Yasuhiro Kitao teased a a new title to Famitsu's editor-in-chief Katsuhio Hayashi by letting him read some text from his tablet, as Kitao didn't have any images to show. Hayashi was blown away by whatever thing he read and stated that "this will definitely be worth waiting for."
In December 2017, SIE trademarked "RaySpace" in Canada - which most probably was the final title for the "unnamed space game" mentioned by Ruin4r. That same month, Japan Studio's award-winning creative director Tsutomu Kouno stated in an interview "I have not been able to announce a new title in a long time, but in 2018, I would like to announce what I am preparing". Japan Studio producer Teruyuki Toriyama - who has been teasing this project since 2015, describing it in multiple occasions as an "ambitious title" - also promised an announcement in 2018.
Sometime in 2018, an interview to a Japan Studio employee was posted on the SIE website; in it there was an image that contained shots of two upcoming games in the background: the Demon's Souls remake (top right corner) and some sort of sci-fi first-person game.
But 2018 went by without any sort of reveal regarding this project and in December, Toriyama once again teased an announcement for the coming year "In 2019, we are preparing for the debut of unannounced title(s) currently in production". It is worth noting that Japan Studio didn't reveal any new games in 2019.
I doubt that RaySpace was cancelled, as you don't pull the plug on a project that has been in the works for four or five years and was so close to being revealed. So what I believe is that they decided to move it to PlayStation 5 - just like they did with other projects such as Sackboy: A Big Adventure or Horizon: Forbidden West - and maybe even bring it back to the drawing table a little - which would explain why we haven't seen it this year during the PS5 reveal events.
Silent Hill
In 2018, Konami reached out to various developers to pitch ideas for two Silent Hill games: one a soft-reboot of the franchise; the other an episodic Telltale/Until Dawn-style game to go alongside the reboot. In fact, one of the studios contacted by Konami was Supermassive Games, creators of Until Dawn, although they ultimately didn't get the job.
Japan Studio's creative director Keiichiro Toyama, who had been wanting to work on a new horror game for quite some time, was developing a new entry in the Siren franchise at the time. Sony, who weren't fully keen on the idea of investing on a niche series such as Siren, decided to pull the plug on the project as they started negotiating a deal with Konami for getting Japan Studio to work on the Silent Hill soft-reboot - a prestige project for the PS5 lineup based on a globally renowned IP, something that would allow Toyama to have a bigger budget and more resources at his disposal.
Eventually the deal would get finalized, putting Sony Interactive Entertainment in charge of developing, funding and publishing the title in exchange for keeping the exclusive and most of the revenue, with Konami being indirectly involved by outsourcing the IP against an 8% of the revenue. And that way, the game entered development in early 2019, salvaging as much from the technological work done for the Siren game as possible.
At some point in 2019, an interview to a Japan Studio employee posted on the SIE website showed a developer working on a handgun model - something that, if we consider the other projects Japan Studio has in the pipeline, would only align with Silent Hill.
On January 21st 2020, Rely on Horror reported that they've heard from a source of their own that a new Silent Hill game was in development. A day later, movie industry insider Emre Kaya posted on Twitter that he has learned that Sony is working on a new horror game for PS5.
On March 12th 2020, Rely on Horror stated that Silent Hill composer Akira Yamaoka and creature designer Masahiro Ito are returning alongside the series creator Keiichiro Toyama to helm a soft-reboot of the franchise developed by Japan Studio, just called Silent Hill. Both of their sources mentioned Sony as the driving force behind bringing the series back. That same day, Emre Kaya said on Twitter that this was the Sony horror game that he talked about back in January.
In April 2020, ResetEra user KatharsisT backed Rely on Horror's information regarding the Silent Hill soft-reboot and confirmed a third-person perspective and that the game was playable already. She also said that it is planned to be announced before PS5's launch, with a release in spring 2021 - although these reveal and release windows were from before COVID started to fuck up their schedule. Shortly after, a mod stepped into the discussion to state that they've verified her information on the subject.
In May 2020, Reddit user snort_cannon, who had already discussed the game months ago, said that "the game was planned on being shown off this summer. Unless something bad happens, it should happen. The plan at first was just to do a CG trailer to announce that the game exists, but I personally think at this point [they] might delay the reveal and add some gameplay footage as well". When asked about his sources, he answered "Same source that told me about the Sony deal, albeit last update came in early February and COVID didn’t rampage as hard as it’s going now."
On August 3rd 2020, ResetEra user Navtra, who leaked a list of games that went on to be present on both PS5 events days in advance to June's The Future of Gaming, commented on the Silent Hill rumors "I can only confirm one thing: it was never on the table for June's event. FFXVI and Marvel's Avengers Spider-Man character announcement were among other things that were supposed to be there and were moved last minute. Silent Hill never was". If we look at both KatharsisT and snort_cannon's comments in regards to the reveal window for the game after having learned this, it becomes clear that the reveal was initially planned for the second PS5 event, that being September's PS5 Showcase - an event that the game missed because of delays in production related to the COVID pandemic.
On October 31st 2020, KatharsisT stated that something had just made her expect a reveal at The Game Awards. A couple of days later, Rely on Horror reported that recent rumors of a Silent Hill announcement at The Game Awards line up with some information they received a while back but choose not to report on.
On November 21st 2020, KatharsisT once again teased a Silent Hill reveal at The Game Awards "You'll celebrate it before the end of the year if everything goes as planned" while also stating that she thinks the game is still planned for 2021.
London Studio (The Getaway, PlayStation VR Worlds, Blood & Truth)
Horizon VR
On October 2019, VR consultant Callum Hurley posted on Twitter that he had learned about an "exciting new PlayStation VR game coming out of London Studio" through someone who had just playtested the title. He also vaguely implied it was a Horizon VR game and, when news outlets started to report on his tweets, he apologized to the development team as he didn't expect such coverage.
Same as the unannounced VR titles from Supermassive Games, I do expect this Horizon VR game to be a cross-gen release sometime next year.
MediaVision (Wild Arms, Digimon Story: Cyber Sleuth, Valkyria Chronicles 4)
Wild Arms
In July 2018, we've learned thanks to a job listing that MediaVision was working on a new PlayStation 4 RPG. It is worth noting that a year earlier Sony stated that, even though their investments have been mainly focused on titles aimed to a global audience do to the soaring in development costs, the success of recent titles such as Persona 5 or Nier Automata amongst overseas audiences has made them consider a return to first-party JRPG development.
Then in June 2019, DasVergeben posted on Reddit "Something I have heard for a while now is that a new Wild Arms game is in development but it has been over a year long journey getting that verified. I still struggle to get definite enough confirmation but I think it might have been because I heard about it too early". In a separate post, Vergeben added "I don't know much other than that it apparently is in development by Media Vision for PS4. I haven't been told anything specific yet at least. I do wonder if Sony might try and shift over to push it as a PS5 launch game or something if they don't reveal it this year [...] but that's simply speculation on my behalf."
At this point I expect the game to be a cross-gen release, as it wouldn't make sense to leave the PS4 users behind with a title that surely won't be a technological showcase unlike native PS5 games such as Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart.
Naughty Dog (Uncharted, The Last Of Us)
The Last Of Us: Factions
On September 26th 2019, Naughty Dog posted a statement on Twitter in which they basically announced that the multiplayer mode they had planned for The Last Of Us: Part II had grown beyond an additional mode that could be included alongside the game's enormous singleplayer campaign, so they decided to turn it into a standalone game in order to not compromise on the ambitions of the studio's multiplayer team.
Then in April 2020, a short gameplay clip from a March 2018 build of the multiplayer leaked online as part of a bigger leak that revealed tons of story spoilers and cutscenes from The Last Of Us: Part II. Assuming that this TLOU multiplayer game is planned for a release on both PS4 and PS5 sometime next year, we would be in front of a title with over four years of overall dev time - meaning that the project might be greater in scope than what most of us are expecting it to be.
Unannounced
On October 10th 2018, movie industry insider Daniel Ritchman reported that Naughty Dog was in the process of casting an actor to play the lead role on an upcoming game. According to the casting description, the studio was looking for a "Black/African American male, 40s to 60s, short to medium length hair, with a body type similar to those in the images below, strong but not chiseled". But since this doesn't tell us much about the game, apart from hinting at it being a new IP, let's go a little back in time in search of more potential details.
During the The Last Of Us: Part II panel at PSX 2017, Neil Druckmann stated that Naughty Dog will "forever continue to make singleplayer, linear, narrative-based games". He also mentioned during an interview from February 2018 that the studio was totally open to make a first-person game in the future - and, since they seem to be making a new IP, this new project might be the perfect time for them to try a different camera angle in their games.
New San Diego Studio
Unannounced
In April 2018, David Hall - former Double Helix/Amazon Game Studios - joins an unnamed SIE studio in San Diego as game director on an unannounced title. Since then, rumors about a new Sony first-party studio have been circulating due to a job listing - also from April - in which it was stated that "PlayStation is building a new game development team in partnership with the Visual Arts Service Group" to work on a "high visibility project" described as a third-person action/adventure game "developed in collaboration with a major Sony studio."
A month later, Quentin Cobb - former singleplayemultiplayer designer at Naughty Dog on the Uncharted series and The Last Of Us - also joins this new studio in San Diego and in December a new job listing mentions that the team was looking for a lead character artist to work on "the next chapter of cinematic storytelling."
In January 2019, James Martinchek - former cutscene/gameplay animator on The Last Of Us, Uncharted 4 and Red Dead Redemption 2 - joins the studio as a lead gameplay animator. Also in January, Cobb was asked on Twitter why he couldn't even reveal what studio he was working for, to what he replied that "it is difficult to explain why" - further reinforcing the theory that Sony has assembled a secret studio in the San Diego area.
Then in November 2019, Sony announced their plans to set up a support studio in Malaysia and, just a couple of weeks ago, a job listing from SIE Malaysia unveils that they're currently working on "one of PlayStation's [most] well-known and well-loved franchises" for which they are looking for "talented, highly-motivated and creative animators to breathe life into the next chapter of cinematic storytelling."
In November 2020, both Quentin Cobb and John Bautista left the studio and the internet started to speculate that Sony had shut down the studio and cancelled the project, something that Bautista denied by stating that "the studio is still there and the project is still ongoing."
Santa Monica Studio (God of War)
Unannounced
On April 12th 2018, Cory Barlog spoke during an interview about his desire to work on a new IP "I really would love to create something of my own next. Something that really, really is truly 100% coming from my original vision. That would be awesome, but we have to see if I can convince Sony on that one". Over half a year later, in November, film director Duncan Jones - who had just met with Cory looking for his opinion regarding a certain script - said on Twitter that "If you think that God of War is [Cory’s] magnum opus, just you wait!"
Since then, little we've learned about the development of this project, other than the recent news that Alanah Pearce has joined Santa Monica Studio as a junior writer on, apparently, Cory's game. And I say that mainly because, while members of the team behind the next God of War were able to publicly announce their involvement in the making of said title on social media, Alanah is not allowed to reveal what she is working on over at SMS - that being due to the fact that, unlike the upcoming GOW game, Cory Barlog's new project hasn't been revealed yet.
Sucker Punch Productions (inFAMOUS, Ghost of Tsushima)
¿Ghost 2?
Look, I haven't played Ghost of Tsushima yet, so I don't know how it ends or if it sets up a sequel or not - but a few weeks ago a job listing from Sucker Punch mentioned that the studio "is looking for a narrative writer for our upcoming projects" and that the ideal candidate would "have previous success as a game writer, outstanding dialogue skills and an excellent understanding of how to tell impactful, character-driven stories within a AAA open-world game" and also "knowledge of feudal Japanese history". That last bit kind of screams some sort of GOT sequel to me.
Supermassive Games (Until Dawn, Hidden Agenda, The Inpatient)
Unannounced Titles
In November 2018, Supermassive Games managing director Pete Samuels confirmed that the studio was "working on several unannounced PlayStation exclusives" and stated that their relationship with Sony "is still excellent", even though they choose another publisher for The Dark Pictures Anthology as they wanted to reach the widest possible audience.
What that might mean is that they wanna go the multiplatform route with their biggest titles - that being The Dark Pictures Anthology, their response to the requests of an Until Dawn sequel - while keeping the most experimental and smaller stuff exclusive to Google or Sony - meaning that these unannounced titles would probably be cross-gen PSVR games, as Jim Ryan stated that they will not be releasing VR titles exclusively for PS5 until the new headset comes out in a couple of years.
Wild Sheep Studio
WiLD
During Sony's GamesCom conference in 2014, Michel Ancel took the stage to introduce WiLD, a new PS4 exclusive developed by his recently formed indie studio. It was described as a title with an open-world "potentially as big as Europe", day and night cycles, dynamic weather and seasons, as well as a seamless online system, in which you could play not only as a human but also as any living creature. Ancel also stated that for the past year, the studio had been working very hard on the proprietary technology and tools they would be using in order to create this very specific type of game that was WiLD.
A year later, this time at Sony's Paris Games Week conference, Ancel showed a super early gameplay demo of WiLD. This was the last time we saw WiLD in action, as the information drops regarding this title started to slow down over the years - with most updates consisting of Sony denying cancellation rumors, trademark renewals or off-screen pictures of the game posted on Michel Ancel's Instagram.
The most notable piece of news from this period however, was an interview with WiLD producer Mitsuo Hirakawa from November 2017. During said interview, he stated "We are not going to rush [Michel Ancel] to make something that he doesn't want to compromise on." and then he followed "Even experienced developers make mistakes. We have to make mistakes to find the right choices for the design of the game and we want to provide [Wild Sheep Studio] with all the support necessary, so that's why things sometimes do take a lot longer than we expect but we feel that WiLD deserves the extra time and quality before it comes to public."
A creative that doesn't want to compromise on his vision? Mistakes that lead into things taking longer than expected? Call me crazy, but I think those statements are pointing directly to some heavy project mismanagement on Ancel's part, as we've seen reports of similar things happening during the development of Beyond: Good & Evil 2.
According to snort_cannon "[BG&E2] has been a mess behind the scenes for a pretty long time. To give you a rough idea of how bad it's going, the game was supposedly gonna come out next year [in 2021], but it's not even 50% done. I wouldn't be shocked, if we get an investigation article on its development troubles, soon". Which did in fact happened, as, a couple of months ago, national newspaper Libération published an article on BG&E2's troubled development "Ganesha City, which [he] asked us to do with a completely stupid level of detail, we only just finished it three years later, and we've had to redo it four or five times. Knowing that we have to do several planets, you can imagine the absurdity of this kind of reasoning." "When [Ancel] was spoking to the press, we were taking notes because [...] it could concern points on which we would have been stuck on for months, waiting for directions."
Moving onto something else, in July 2018, both Michel Ancel and Wild Sheep's CEO and art director Celine Tellier visited Guerrilla Games. This is interesting, because considering that WiLD went through some serious development hell difficulties, it is not farfetched to think that one of the solutions proposed by Sony to one of the several the problems the game was facing at the time was to drop the in-house engine that Wild Sheep was using up to that point and move the game over to DECIMA - the Guerrilla Games engine that has powered PS4 titles such as Killzone: Shadow Fall and Horizon: Zero Dawn but also Until Dawn and Death Stranding. Such a change could come in handy, especially when we take into account that, just like Horizon and Death Stranding, WiLD is an open-world title that takes place in natural environments.
On September 18th 2020, Michel Ancel announced his departure from the games industry and regarding Beyond: Good & Evil 2 and WiLD he stated that "since many months now the teams are autonomous and the projects are going super well. Beautiful things to be seen soon". Hopefully we get to see something next year.
submitted by FLACO1942 to PS5 [link] [comments]

FuboTV DD (First time making DD, please give advice)

I tried to make it easy to skip around if you just want to see the financials or estimates. Just scroll to them if you don't care what the company is or their sectocompetition/management. TL;DR at bottom with final thoughts.
Introduction
FuboTV ($FUBO) is an American streaming television service that focuses primarily on channels that distribute live sports, including NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, MLS and international soccer, plus news, network television series and movies.
Launched on January 1, 2015 as a soccer streaming service, FuboTV changed to an all-sports service in 2017 and then to a virtual multichannel video programming distributor (vMVPD) model. As a vMVPD, FuboTV still calls itself sports-first but its expanded channel lineup targets cord cutters, offering a selection of major cable channels and OTT-originated features that can be streamed through smart TVs, mobile and tablets and the web. The service is available in the United States, Canada and Spain as of 2018."
From their home page:
They are the only competitors in their space of digital sports broadcasting, offer 4K streaming and upscaling of live sports, cloud DVR capability ranging from 250 or 1000 hours on standard plans, and is available on Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast, Samsung Smart TVs, Xbox One, Android TV, Android Smart TVs, and Android/iOS smartphones and tablets, with plans ranging from $24.99/month to $79.99/month (not including add-ons).
They have also recently acquired one company and have made plans to acquire another to allow for in-house sports betting. They have stated in a press release that they plan to release a sportsbook before the end of the year. This will push them into a broader spectrum outside of only TV and sports streaming, and into the sports betting sector along with DraftKings ($DKNG), FanDuel ($PDYPY), and Penn National Gaming ($PENN).
Plans and Add-ons
FuboTV offers three standardized plans as of February 8, 2021: the Family plan is priced at $64.99/month (normally $75.97/month), Elite at $79.99/month (normally $100.95/month), and Latino Quarterly at $24.99/month, along with offering additional add-ons. Each plan offers a range of channels, cloud DVR capabilities (which allows fast-forwarding through commercials), and casting to multiple devices simultaneously. Only the Elite plan does not offer a 7-day free trial (Channels page).
The Family plan includes 117 channels (mostly news and entertainment with roughly 40 that offer sports, including ESPN), up to 250 hours of DVR space, and casting to 3 devices at once. The quarterly prepaid includes a free upgrade to 1000 hours of DVR space and 5 casting devices at home with 3 on the go (Channels page).
The Elite plan includes 164 channels (includes an additional “47 entertainment channels”), up to 1000 hours of DVR space, and casting to 5 devices at home with 3 on the go. This plan does not offer a quarterly prepaid (Channels page).
The Latino Quarterly plan includes 250 hours of DVR space and can be streamed on up to 3 devices at once, but only has 32 channels. This plan needs to be prepaid every 3 months for a total charge of $74.97 and does not offer a monthly service (Channels page).
Upgrades include additional DVR space--1000 hours for an additional $6.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly--and increased device casting--an additional 2 devices at home with 3 on the go for another $9.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly plans. You can also add a variety of channels and sports packages (the Latino Quarterly has fewer channel add-ons compared to the Family and Elite plans, which both have the same channel varieties). Sports Plus with NFL RedZone is an additional $10.99/month, but includes all professional and college sports broadcasting services for football, basketball, baseball, hockey, tennis, fighting, etc. (Channels page).
Fubo has recently removed its former Standard plan, which included only 65 channels, up to 2 casting devices, and only 30 hours of DVR support for $60/month.
Financials and Growth
Fubo has yet to file an annual report as they have gone public in October of 2020, but they have filed a 10-Q for Q3 2020. All numbers in thousands.
Assets-
Between December 31, 2019 and September of 2020, assets have increased from $368,225 to $799,313 (a 117% increase) . Total current assets increased from $17,973 to $58,016, but accounts receivable decreased from $8,904 to $6,975--this may be attributed to the increase in prepaid subscriptions which increased from $1,445 to $12,177 which shows strong customer satisfaction and retention.
Liabilities-
Liabilities have increased from $145,049 to $290,376 (a 100% increase). The largest contributors to their liabilities are “Due to related parties” increasing from $665 to $85,847, “Warrant liabilities” increasing from $24 to $28,085, and “Accounts payable” from $36,373 to $61,679. Long-term borrowings have decreased from $43,982 to $25,905.
Revenues-
Subscription revenues increased by $53,433, totaling $92,945 for the year. Total revenues including advertisements and licensing have increased by $61,202, totaling $112,669 for the year and an increase of 47% YOY. Q4 revenue is estimated to be between $94,000 and $98,000 which would be a 77-84% increase YOY.
Expenses-
Subscriber related expenses total $114,315 for the year. Total expenses have totaled $500,249 for the year.
Subscribers-
Ended Q3 with 455,000 paid subscribers, a YOY increase of 58%, and plans to end 2020 with over 545,000, an increase of 72% YOY.
Competition
Its closest competitors are Hulu + Live TV (owned by Disney ($DIS)), YouTube TV (owned by Alphabet ($GOOG)), and Sling TV (owned by Dish Network ($DISH)).
Hulu + Live TV
YouTube TV
Sling TV Blue
Sling TV Orange
The vMVPD Sector
Cord-cutting has become increasingly popular over the last few years with consumers dropping traditional cable and satellite networks in favor of streaming services--such as Hulu, Netflix, Disney+, etc.--and vMVPD services.
In 2019 alone, 6.3 million people cut their cable connection, totaling 39.3 million. In a survey of what they might miss most from cable networks, 52% said they don’t miss anything, 23% missed live events on TV, 22% missed news, and 19% missed live sports. Although not all of those that miss aspects of cable will pay for another subscription service, the sentiment exists for a sports-focused platform that offers other large networks as well.
Another report by Parks Associates reveals that 17% of vMVPD subscribers switched from traditional TV within the last twelve months. In the same report, a survey conducted on current broadband households determined that 43% were “likely to switch to a… vMVPD within the next 12 months." The potential growth exists for the live digital broadcasting space, although it is slowing down.
With the spread of COVID and quarantines, people have been spending more time at home. When things open and quarantines end, that will be the true test for these providers as people will spend less time watching TV.
The Sports Betting Sector
Legal sports betting has taken a huge leap in recent years with the introduction of online sports betting; the ability to place wagers from anywhere at any time and have instant gratification has boomed with its slow legalization. This sector has a forecasted value of $150 billion with other competitors already having a completed project and vast market share. In 2019, DraftKings ($DKNG) and FanDuel (PDYPY) controlled 83% of the market share.
FuboTV plans to join into this space with its own sportsbook. Their recent acquisition of Balto Sports in December of 2020, whose business was in simulating fantasy sports games, is Fubo’s first step into sports wagering. They plan to create a free-to-play gaming system alongside online sports wagering.
Their next planned acquisition, which was announced in January of 2021, will be to acquire Vigtory, a sports betting and interactive gaming company. According to BusinessWire, they plan to utilize Vigtory’s “sportsbook platform and digital gaming assets, and its consumer-driven betting technology, to develop a frictionless betting experience for fubo’s customers."
These recent acquisitions set Fubo up to create an all-in-one viewing and betting experience, which could add new customers to their subscriber list and seal them into online wagering.
It has been over two years since the Supreme Court has denied the federal ban on sports betting, which would have made online betting illegal in all of the United States. Currently, more than two dozen states have legalized sports betting, but most have only legalized in-person betting. More states may be willing to legalize to take advantage of the increased revenues and taxes associated with gambling and online wagering. As of 2020, six additional states plan to legalize some form of betting, although some are only allowing in-person. There are an additional 14 states that are considering the notion to allow legal gambling, whether in-person, online, or tribal.
Management and Investors
David Gandler - CEO / Director / Co-Founder
Appointed as CEO and director in April of 2020. Prior to Fubo, Gandler had a 15 year career in marketing and advertising in local broadcast and cable TV within both general and Hispanic markets at companies such as Time Warner, Telemundo, and Scripps Networks Interactive.
Alberto Horihuela - CMO / Co-founder
In charge of marketing, Horihuela was head of Latin America for SVOD service DramaFever.
Simone Nardi - CFO
Nardi has worked as SVP and CFO of Scripps Networks Interactive where he was responsible for the finance and strategic planning for the company’s international business. Was also a key player in refinancing TVN S.A.’s billion dollar debt.
Large Investors
Analysts and Estimates
Average analyst ratings put Fubo at a Buy to Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $45.50 with a high of $60 and a low of $30. EPS estimates are estimated to be -5.23 for 2020 and -1.64 for 2021.
Currently has a short float of about 75%, but the short volume has been holding at roughly 15-20% over the last month and has drastically declined from its October short volume of over 50%.
Originally valued at $700 million less than a year ago, a current valuation of $3.19 billion is respectable for this company and is on par for its current performance.
Risks
Final Thoughts / TL;DR
With its drastic growth over the last year (400% in the last 4 months), support from FaceBank and well-known investors, and plans to join the sports betting sector, FuboTV has potential to become a household name and grow well beyond its current valuation by combining both sports broadcasting and online sports betting into one convenient place. Although unlikely to overthrow any of the current forces, it can become the best live sports broadcaster that people can turn to when they cut cable but want to keep live sports. It has many hurdles to overcome (creating their sportsbook, better marketing, increasing subscriber count, etc.) before it is any real competition to its already established competition.
At a $3.19 billion market cap and very high (75%) short interest, it will be very difficult to realize consistent growth, but it is on par for a company with almost $100 million in revenue.
My Position
25 shares at $47.30

Edit: edited final thoughts/TL;DR
Please provide feedback! First time actually researching and compiling information for a company and not just reading about them on here. Also, please ask questions to clear up any confusion; it was kinda hard to put everything together neatly, so I might have accidentally left stuff out or oveunder explained some things.
submitted by AlbibiG to stocks [link] [comments]

Corsair Thoughts

Alright gents, gather around for my adderall infused dissertation on why im JACKED-TO-THE-TITS on this beaut. Now I know there are many valuable DDs on CRSR over there on wallstreetbets, but I decided to give my own opinion for the fuck of it.
Lets get some of the boring stuff out of the way first: (taken from their quarterly report ending sept 30 2020 which can be found on under "SEC filing" on the investor relations page of CRSRs website)
These numbers make me fucking wet. COVID was a huge accelerator for this company but I believe there are other catalysts that contributed and will continue to contribute to their growth in the future. REMEMBER these numbers are from June - September. They dont include the 4th quarter of 2020, nor do they include the numbers from the initial lockdown where we saw a lot of people really settling in to the new life of quarantine (and upgrading or buying their first computers) YES they do have some debt, but they recently did a public offering which raised 118.6m of which 86.6m was used to pay off debt. A statement from the quarterly filing :"We plan to continue to utilize our strong cash flow to further reduce our debt"
CRSR also announced the release of new products that will be for sale in OCTOBER of 2020. We will see how well they did in this upcoming earnings on the 9th. BUT, I am an amazon seller and can help get a general idea of how well they sold in Q4 through amazon. For other retailors I did my normal ground DD and traveled to a couple best buys and microcenters in my area to see the stock.
Before I get started I feel I need to explain some things: When an item is listed on amazon, it is given a "rank" which shows where the product is relative to other products in the same category. For example a rank of "1" means that product FLIES off the shelf, were as a ranked of 5m MIGHT sell 1 a month. Its used as a general guideline for amazon sellers to determine how products are doing. You can gather this information by scrolling down on an amazon page till you see the "sales rank #" or if you participate in retail arbitrage and that whole monster you can use a paid software called keepa.
SOME OF THE NEW PRODUCTS RELEASED
  1. Cooling systems: e H100i ELITE CAPELLIX, H115i ELITE CAPELLIX, and H150i ELITE CAPELLIX. These bad bois were sold out fucking everywhere. Great reviews checking multiple sites. Sales rank of 43 under cooling systems on amazon. They're moving this product FAST AND IN QUANITIES. Plus we all know how much we love our color changing shit.
  2. VENGEANCE i7200 Series: Pretty beast computer, it isn't sold on amazon and I actually didn't check the stocks of this guy in retail stores. So I cant really comment on this one.
  3. Corsair K100 RGB Keyboard: Low stock in retail stores, this thing is moving on amazon and seems to be doing pretty well on other online retailors.
  4. KATAR PRO WIRELESS Gaming Mouse: This one was interesting. There were more on the shelves than their other mice, but I attribute this to it not being a MMO mouse (lack of side buttons for those non gamers) but never the less showed strong competition on amazon with its Logitech counterparts ( it hovered around 1k sales rank from late October to current)
  5. Corsair MP400 Gen3 PCIe x4 NVMe M.2 Solid State Drive: New SSD, almost all of their SSDs have done well in the past. Mainly positive reviews with an extremely high review count.
  6. K60 RGB PRO Keyboard: Another keyboard, following the same trend line as the previous keyboard states (#3) sales for this keyboard however were decent (22k sales rank) until December hit, then it exploded (1k sales rank)
  7. HS60 HAPTIC Headset: I can personally attest to the quality of corsair headsets and cooling equipment, this shit is fantastic. They're durable for when you throw them and give far better audio and mic quality then their Logitech counterparts.
  8. CORSAIR HS75 XB WIRELESS: I bolded this one for a reason. This one wasn't very well received. Although there are a lot of youtube videos and other promoters saying how good it was, customers seemed to have encountered a lot of problems with it. (wouldn't work after a certain amount of time, weird functionality, etc.) BUT THIS IS A POSITIVE in my eyes. Things dont make sense when every product a company releases is fire, and this one sure seems that it wasn't. It does show however that a predominantly computer focused company is expanding into the console market. With talks of future consoles being able to be "upgraded", I believe they are making the move to further their growth within the console space at the perfect time. Of course there are gonna be a few road bumps.
That is quite of bit of products to release in such a short time span, but a perfect amount to release before the most profitable time of the year. They also announced their acquisition of EPCOM (5million downloads on the apple app store), Game sensei, the leading gaming coaching platform. They also announced a partnership deal with PIPELINE a leading streamer mentorship platform (I didn't even know this existed but did some digging and I like it). This leads me to my next point.
GAMING ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE EVEN AFTER THE PANDEMIC IS OVER.
Pro esports and streaming was already gaining a lot of steam pre pandemic, after the pandemic I still see a lot of growth for esports and gaming as a whole. To add, a lot of people try to emulate their favorite streamer or pro players (just like in traditional sports) people WILL BUY the gear that they are using just like people buy whatever it is that traditional sports players wear.
Streamers they sponsor
Teams they sponsor
I like these, a lot. They're biggest team the ROX tigers competes in multiple esports and has a huge fan following (20m). They also sponsor some pretty famous streamers (summit1g - the guy who basically started streaming, Voyboy - a ex pro league streamer that is still very involved with the community and Bajheera - big World of Warcraft player). What I LOVE about this that its not so focused on just NA alone. Example : ROX is a Korean team, showing that they are not only trying to grow their brand within the Americas, but worldwide as well.
THEY'RE GOING TO SMOKE THEIR EARNINGS
Corsair has a 41.9% share of the PC component market with an addressable market of 36B, they report a peripheriral market share of 18.9%. This is the smoke. This company has a LOT of room to grow and new areas to expand into. As shown above they keep producing new products within their main sector that are doing very well, while also expanding into other markets (consoles) Corsairs market cap sits at a steady 4B, while its primary competitor (LOGI) sits at a nice 19B market cap. Corsair can easily hit a 10B marketcap at its current growth. I firmly believe this company is far undervalued, but we will see just how undervalued after their earnings on the 8th.
If we take a look at estimates they are low (which does make me believe there might be a after earnings sell off because the estimates are so weak - everyone could be predicting a earnings beat). Last quarter they reported a EPS of 0.54 when 0.32 was estimated, yet for this quarter -including q4 of last year- the estimate sits at 0.46. Rev estimates sit at 555.27m on the high side for this quarter, they did 457m last quarter. Do they really expect me to believe that they are only gonna make an extra 100m compared to their last quarter which didn't have the Christmas in it?
With all the new product launches and lingering sales from previous products, I think they're gonna murder every estimate.
Now this is just my extremely bullish position and that im very fond of this company, love and use their products. I think they:
  1. Clear 600m Rev for the quarter
  2. Substantially decrease debt
  3. Provide great guidance
Last thoughts before I get to how im playing this. There's some other DDs (I'll have to find them and add them to this post) that touches on how good their streaming gear and software is that also shares the same bullish standpoint that I do (I didn't include this in the DD because I personally haven't looked into as the others DDs are sufficient for my confirmation bias).
Anyways, currently im running a covered strangle. Im more of a thetagang player so you'll see a lot of that aspect if I ever post again.
Positions: Sold 5 x 35p 2/19 Sold 5 x 50c 3/19 500 commons at 43$.
BuT WhY ThE PuTs If Ur So BuLlIsH
Obviously for the freemium. I LOVE this stock at 35-40 and would buy as much as I could afford. I really like this stock at 40-45, and I kinda like it above 50. But to me this isn't a earnings play, I see substantial growth for this company over the current year. I plan to easily 2-3x my money over the next 2-3 years.
Sadly, this is my first DD, so rip away.
Edit: this isn’t financial advice, just my opinion on why I like it. Also if your going to buy calls make sure you have a strong understanding of IV
submitted by Ridiculousnake to Vitards [link] [comments]

I did some boring 20 page DD on $KSMT SPAC. Spoiler: I expect it to go up 70-100%

Disclaimer: This article my article. You are reading it first, as I didn't post it anywhere else.
Summary

Kismet Acquisition One (KSMT) to Combine with Nexters Global in $1.9Bn Deal

Not much information about this company, so I started writing my own research on the company. Here is the investor presentation:
https://nexters.com/images/inv_info/Nexters_Investor_Presentation.pdf
If want to understand the valuation of the company, the risk/reward, and the potential I need to answer the following questions:
  1. What is Nexters Global?
  2. SPAC is a safe bet?
  3. Comparison with its competitors?
  4. $1.9B is cheap or expensive?
Let's begin!

1. What is Nexters Global?

Nexters Global is a fast-growing mobile game development company with $450 million gross revenue* (2020), 85 million total game installs, 5.4 Million monthly active users, with 10x growth of revenue in the last 2 years. Already profitable with $110 million net profit in 2020.
The management has more than 10 years of experience in creating games. Located in Cyprus (Europe) with roots in Russia (a very strong IT region). They are well known for being in Game Development since early 2005 in the epicenter of the web, social and mobile game development.
https://preview.redd.it/juhbhhuwhmg61.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=529a0e927aa3bc3205430d97204d3d625f36fc8d
Since the launch, the company has proven that it can develop, publish and use marketing to scale its games. With 37% of its revenue coming from the US/Canada, 23% from Europe, 19% from Asia it is already an international company.
\In the investor presentation Nexters Global states 310 million net revenue, as at the* sec.gov reports it is more common (example) to use the gross revenue for gaming companies as their base metrics. That's why here and below I’m using gross revenue. Please see the spreadsheet below with a comparison to other companies.
Further plans are:

https://preview.redd.it/t9kdphd0img61.png?width=994&format=png&auto=webp&s=b70e92455e253033e99a91b17b0a1f85012e1e5b

2. SPAC is a safe bet?

There are so many SPACs, that we should be very selective on what we choose to buy. To do that we need to check if the business is real.
There are different kind of risky SPAC’s on the market:
We need to verify that Nexters Global is not on that list. Let’s have a look at the company:
The product? Web, Social, Mobile Games.
To check if their numbers are real simply open the game page in App Store and Google Play store.
Android Apps by NEXTERS GLOBAL LTD on Google Play
‎Nexters Global LTD Apps on the App Store
The top game has more than 50,000,000 installs with more than a million positive reviews and an average rating of 4.6. With other games/stores combined, it correlates with the company's stated 85 million installs.

https://preview.redd.it/jwh51gm2img61.png?width=735&format=png&auto=webp&s=428ec2dc85a4a6c1d51c67aa8fa1f7876edd3dab
I like that I can see the numbers myself, and also can "touch" the product and how it works. it increases my confidence in owning the stock.
Actually, I have been playing their top-grossing game Hero Wars for several months last year. And I loved it... loved it so much that I’ve spent around ~1000 dollars within 3 months. And I’ve seen players that spent much much more than me (higher ranked, had much more power and ranks). And there were so many players that they had to add new servers each week, or even daily.
The first impression is that I really like the product. I see how it works.
The revenue. It's huge.
In the SPAC world, there are companies that can’t make revenue but predict that their revenue will go up 10-20-50x times in 3-5 years. Usually, such companies are SCAM as they mislead investors with revenue that will never happen.
On another side, Nexters Global has already $450 million in revenue with a $110M profit. And the growth rate is +177% YoY. And even the slowdown in growth means the actual increase in revenue substantially, just by the magic of the compound growth.
I like the numbers very much here.
The addressable market
How big is the addressable market? The World’s 2.7 Billion Gamers Spent $175 Billion on Games in 2020; The Market Will Surpass $200 Billion by 2023. So Nexters Global is well-positioned in expanding market.

https://preview.redd.it/tf41au04img61.png?width=888&format=png&auto=webp&s=7547a1d3c2c8da43554a655d9b32bb4aaf4f2d97
Revenue geography shows that it is also diversified well. The company has proven that it can generate revenue all around the world, not just in its local market. That is very important in order to calculate the valuation of the company.

https://preview.redd.it/sxq08qg5img61.png?width=362&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed9b771d632268efb31d96d57c831d61d8caf12f
But how long Nexters can generate revenue?
Unlike the traditional PC gaming, where the peak of sales occurs after the launch of the game and then shrinks a lot, in the online mobile game market - games get updates each month/quarter to engage customers and make them stay in the game longer.
Games with great engagement + marketing resources can stay on top charts for many years.
You just reinvest part of your revenue into marketing to earn even more. It works for games with high revenue per player (ARPPU).
Nexters Presentation: $106 - Average net bookings per paying user(2) (Q4’20)

https://preview.redd.it/jsqcmby6img61.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=f96f6ef490ee2b16cf6ca01e8508df578bfdd302
Percentage of paying users increases. Average net booking increases.
With the 6% of paying users and $106 net payment - it is quite easy to calculate that you earn $6.36 from any user that downloads the app, so you can spend on advertisement a lot of money and you will earn even more.
When you have 277% revenue growth in 2019, 177% in 2020 it won’t just stop growing. Next year double-digit growth of revenue is highly probable.
From a statistical behavior the growth slowdown to zero is very unlikely. If we take examples of other super-hit games from Supercell (Clash of Clans) and Playrix (Gardenscapes).
Example: Playrix did continue to grow since 2016 explosive revenue withadding +41% YoY growth in 2018 +35% in 2019.

https://preview.redd.it/so9ijp08img61.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f6acbdf41374f89c045bb07c4b4e5f7dc235bf9
Another example: Supercell's revenue continued to grow at least 2 years after the revenue explosion before slowing down.

https://preview.redd.it/tjjuf159img61.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=01116616d83bbeeb34bbe98da012d22c3964f5d5
The growth
Great games could continue to grow. Nexters Global estimates their net revenue to reach $562 million dollars. That equals to ~$802 million gross revenue in 2023. And the company is valued at just 1.9B now. Re-think that.📷
This chart also shows that they project only +10.5% YoY growth in revenue in its current games after this year's gain. Which I think is too conservative considering the examples above. I understand that they’ve chosen the strategy not to mislead investors and should stay conservative, but I think they will easily beat their own estimates and 20-25% growth is much more realistic.
The good thing is that we can track their performance in terms of downloads and revenue in stores. We can stay ahead and know the data earlier than official numbers come out, which brings another level of transparency for investors.

Kismet Acquisition One Corp company

The company is led by CEO and Director Ivan Tavrin, the founder and Principal of investment firm Kismet Capital Group. Tavrin previously served as the CEO of PJSC MegaFon, Russia's second largest telecommunications operator, and before that, he founded UTH Russia, one of the largest independent media broadcasting groups in Russia.
Kismet Acquisition Two plans to target the internet and technology sectors operating in Europe, including Russia, as well as businesses established by founders with Russian origins.
Credit Suisse, BofA Securities and LionTree Advisors served as financial and capital markets advisors to Kismet Acquisition One Corp.
Advisors look good to me. The CEO's background and experience too. Additionally, he was one of the shareholders in the recently launched Russian IPO "OZON" marketplace. Which is now +120% up.
The only thing that sounds scary here is the word “Russia” everywhere. Is there an unwanted geopolitical risk? From the legal point of view, every entity is registered under British Law jurisdictions (Cyprus, BVI). So, basically, there shouldn't be any problems.
Well... they would better be in the US as many investors don’t like foreign companies. But there are great examples of super successful Supercell and Rovio that were NON-US too. And we know that the Russian Tech-sector is high qualified (Google Founder - Sergey Brin, Pavel Durov - Telegram, Vitalik Buterin - Etherium, and even Russian Hackers is a “meme”).
And as I said before their business looks crystal clear, anybody can check their metrics so they can’t fraud the data, unlike, for example, Luckin Coffee did in China. Therefore, this kind of risk is eliminated.

3. Comparison with its competitors?

Let's talk about numbers. I’ve tried to compare the game developer to its direct competitors. I've selected only companies with major mobile game-driven revenue.
Here is the full spreadsheet access: Nexters Global Comparison
I’ve marked the concerning metric with yellow and red, Good metric with green, Superb one with dark-green color.

https://preview.redd.it/tmsosbtaimg61.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b50cd7a1a54115bb496849c43b3611094fc6309
Please take time to read the numbers and come back after.
Update! With the latest news that Electronic Arts buys GLU Mobile with +39% premium from the market - the sector is officially undervalued.
Thoughts on Nexters Global
I ended up with numbers: P/S = 4.19, P/E = 17.27. This valuation seems just right with current earnings and the sector, but not with the future growth. As there is a Hot trend in gaming and with outstanding YoY growth could be worth much much more.

4. $1.9B is cheap or expensive?

The current price of $KSMT (“GDEV”) is $10.15 which represents a $1.9B valuation. Before the deal is completed the price cannot be valued less than $10 due to SPAC rules. So there is simply no downside risk at this point..
But can it go up? What is fair valuation? Is there a risk of a selloff from shareholders? How rich the valuation can be in terms of P/E (Price to Sales ratio)?
First, let's find out the risk of insider selling:
Here is the sec report: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1814824/000121390021005589/ea134294ex99-1_kismet.htm
The Transaction is expected to deliver up to $150 million in cash to the Company’s balance sheet before advisor fees and/or redemptions by Kismet Acquisition One Corp. current shareholders, with proceeds expected to be used for general working capital purposes and potential acquisitions. Existing shareholders of Nexters will receive a cash payment of up to $150 million pro-rata to their pre-money shareholdings, and will roll approximately 92% of their holdings into the combined company while agreeing to a 12 month lock-up (subject to certain exceptions). In addition, the founders and the management will receive 20.0 million Earn-Out shares over 3 years (with 50% of the Earn-Out released at $13.50 VWAP and 50% released at $17.00 VWAP), also subject to a 12 month lock-up. The Transaction will be funded by approximately $250 million held in trust by Kismet Acquisition One Corp., subject to any redemptions, as well as the additional $50 million investment by the SPAC Sponsor, Kismet Capital Group, via an affiliate.
The investors will have a 12-month lock-up on selling + they get benefits on reaching the valuation 35% and 70% higher from the current price. This means that there will be no insider selling in the near term, which is very positive signal.
Acquisitions
Nexters Global plans to use proceeds in M&A (buying small game development studios with great projects that just don’t have enough cash, expertise, or right developer team) to benefit from its situation in order to launch great games worldwide.

https://preview.redd.it/xhypgzqfimg61.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=642c03fecbb851984527c46774beb0ecc44eba0a
It is a common mistake to assume that great games can be run by small studios or individuals, as in 2020 you need at least a couple of million dollars spent on marketing to understand if the project is worth it, or not. Small developers can’t afford it. On the other side, Nexters can benefit from it really well.
If they are successful in that, we could see 10+ new titles in the future. That could diversify its game portfolio, making this company a safe bet for Hedge funds and other market players, driving future growth.
“Hero Wars 2” game announcement.
Hero Wars is the top-grossing game, which generates most of the revenue. With “Hero Wars 2” announcement the company can benefit a lot..
Usually, game sequels can do very well, as they are easier to promote, finding their “fan base” from the beginning. This could create a new source of income, work as a diversification, launch the new cycle of the revenue stream for many years ahead.
Partnership with Playrix founders
Here is another thing that I want to focus on:
Bukhman brothers acquired a 43% stake in Nexters in 2018
They are founders of “Playrix” - a private mobile game developer company, currently valued at $7B(valued in Q1 2020). Now more likely ~11B as their revenue increased 1.5 times during 2020.
Please read these articles in Bloomberg and Forbes first:
  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-29/billionaire-gaming-brothers-emerge-as-tencent-s-biggest-rival
  2. https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&u=https://www.forbes.ru/milliardery/410509-nash-rost-ne-svyazan-napryamuyu-s-lokdaunom-milliarder-igor-buhman-o-tom-chto
Summary from the articles:
Cashing out (selling out to Tencent or Activision Blizzard) is not interesting right now. We are growing every year. Game industry multiplicators of public companies were priced wrong . This year has changed it. And this trend will continue as top games can grow for many many years, reengaging users with updates.
Playrix is not interested in IPO's at this valuation. They want to wait until the market changes and start pricing gaming companies at different valuations, not the 4-5 year revenues, but maybe more like Tech companies are valued now (P/S 20-30 instead of 4-5)?
I can assume that Playrix founders are interested in the long-term success of Nexters Global SPAC-merger in order to change how markets price the gaming companies as they want to bring Playrix to an IPO in the future. They want to wait until the market starts pricing gaming companies at different valuations, not the 4-5 year revenues, but maybe more like Tech companies are valued now (P/S 20-30 instead of 4-5)?
So, for the Bukhman brothers who own 43% shares, Nexters Global is a long-term play company. They don’t want/need to cash out.
I also think that at some point, Tencent could just buy 20-30% of the company through the open market (buying shares). Why? Because it is common for Tencent to buy a stake in gaming companies that earn a lot of cash and priced at these valuations.

https://preview.redd.it/uphpbubcimg61.png?width=804&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f35889049fa9302786bf65d1b83f02a92d71eef

Summary

In my personal opinion, this is a great company with a bright future.
Valuation seems reasonable and there is a big upside if any of those happens:
At this exact moment, the fair valuation of the company will move to $3-4 billion dollar. (+100% upside).
At this right moment of the time as the price is near $10 there is literally no risk in a pre-merger state, as SPAC can’t go below $10 price by its concept.
Disclosure: At the moment of writing this article I do have a position in $KSMT, that is not more than 10% of my entire portfolio. I do not plan to sell at any nearest time in future. Stocks are risk assets and this is not investment advice.
submitted by khollekhokk to SPACs [link] [comments]

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