This week we've got a few penny stocks to watch with upcoming data:
Verastem, Inc. (VSTM):
September 16th the company will deliver data from the LGSOC cohort of the investigator-initiated Phase 1/2 FRAME study evaluating VS-6766 and defactinib in KRAS mutant solid tumors. Veristem will also discuss new preclinical data from studies investigating VS-6766 and defactinib in combination with KRAS-G12C inhibitors.
Kezar Life Sciences, Inc. (KZR):
Kezar presents interim data in a scientific poster session from the Phase 1b portion of MISSION, a Phase 1b/2 clinical trial of KZR-616 for the treatment of lupus and lupus nephritis at the Pan-American Congress of Rheumatology 2020 – “PANLAR 2020” – on the 17th.
Immutep Ltd. (IMMP):
Will be presenting data in four poster presentations at the ESMO Virtual Congress 2020. All 4 posters will focus on the eftilagimod treatment. Specifically, the targeted treatments are for select tumors, as well as in patients with head/neck cancers, and metastatic non-small cell lung carcinoma.
Agenus Inc. (AGEN):
Data from two Phase 2 trials of balstilimab alone and in combination with zalifrelimab will be presented in an oral presentation at the upcoming European Society of Medical Oncology Conference on September 18, 2020.
Cassava Sciences (SAVA):
Will hold a conference call on Monday, September 14th. No details were elaborated on but remember that in its August business update, Remi Barbier, President & CEO, said, “Our Phase 2b study was well-conducted, but we believe the analysis of results is a re-do. This effort is on-going. I believe the outcome of our Phase 2b study will be better understood after final clinical results are announced in September 2020.” Not sure if it's related but something to note.
Mallinckrodt Plc (MNK):
I'm not a huge fan of MNK because it continues sh*tting on its investors. However, this weekend there was supposed to be a PDUFA event. On March 17, 2020 the company announced the completion of its rolling submission of the NDA for terlipressin. The FDA assigned a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) target date of September 12, 2020.

I am not new to the risk of penny stocks, been playing with pennies for about 8 years now. Luckily, I have had a lot more success than fails but do not take this as "financial advice" and more something to think about.
Lets talk $HCMC.. the most hyped stock in my opinion over this past weekend and is being pushed for it to still have momentum. If you truly believe this stock will hit a $1 you need to take a step back and learn how much is needed to move a stock with 105.1B Outstanding shares... to put it in perspective, Apple for example has 16.8B.. Apple the Trillion dollar company. I am not saying you can't take a quick gain but read on what share dilution is and how it effects the stock price. When the court decision does occur with HCMC, expect some movement but to move toward $1 the company needs to do a reverse split. I am sure there is a lot more into how a company can reduce its outstanding shares but that is a common one I have seen in pennies. I won't go in-depth in what a reverse split is but look up on that. This stock will move if truly everyone actually throws some cash in it but don't expect a full dollar with 105 B Outstanding shares.
I understand it can be challenging to filter on what will be the next 30% plus gain in one day. Maybe you have seen 100% - 1000% gains on stock websites. Some of you I see asking for recommendations on a $100 to play with on your first investment. You got to know what would be considered a "pump and dump" and a legitimate company. Let's take $INKW for example, this stock had increased close to 80% today. A good amount of people have posted about this stock the past few weeks, and today it moved roughly 80%,. Deals with Walmart, selling out on Amazon, and moving toward Hemp water. There is actual PR (Press Release) with recent information on the stock. It takes 10 mins to learn all this about the company, or what you will see people call DD (Due Diligence). 10 mins of my day before thinking hmm should I jump in? Am I missing the ride? or is this a long term play for me?
The market for me is just a bunch of hype and speculation. ESPECIALLY PENNIES. I personally don't see pennies as long-term investments. I get in and get out like my wife's boyfriend when I go to work. but you got to know what works best for you and if you truly believe in the company. Lets take some other popular stocks I have seen posted here: $OZSC, $ILUS, $HITIF (admitting I own this one for my weed play), $TSNP. I have seen these stocks have solid PR but would not jump in unless DD was made.
As you grow to be an experience trader, learn how to read candlestick graphs. It can be a snoozer learning but if you understand it, it will help a good amount if you want to buy in dips or see when you want to sell. ITS OKAY IF YOUR STOCK GOES RED. Yes, pennies are more risk. I had days losing everything when I first was trying to invest in them but I also had days with huge gains. Its okay to hold but hold knowing your risk tolerance. Remember, you thought long-term because you believed in this company and it has solid potential. Long-term is long-term so don't let a bad week make you take a big lost only to see it rise again the following.
I am in no way an expert in investing nor trying to give you investing advice. This is more for people who really want to understand how to invest, but the high from one of your stocks performing at a 100% and letting your emotions get to you can be a rough lesson to learn when you expect it every time. I didn't understand how to play pennies at all firs starting and for me losing even $100 was a big deal at the time.
There is a lot of pump/dump post on here I been seeing from day old accounts. I even look at the companies they are trying to pump. If there is no website, social media is terrible, or real product ... it is a P/D.
I ask all experience traders to share their advice on this post so we can combat the bots we have been seeing for the crowd.
Good Luck to all the new investors. I consider pennies as a daily gamble more than a long-term. I am sure others view it different.
EDIT:
Just scrolling through frequent questions -
I use TD Ameritrade as my broker. Look into how to use their thinkorswim platform.
I recently opened a Fidelity account to avoid OTC Market trading fee’s though.
Found an article that gives a good summary of some major brokers for pennies:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timothysykes.com/blog/best-broker-for-penny-stocks/amp/
I never been a fan of Robinhood. I opened an account when it was up and coming but didn’t like the layout and lack of stocks that were available to invest in. So not sure how it is today but I do know you can’t invest in the OTC Market through this broker.
Asking for my thoughts on a specific stock -
I really don’t know about some of the stocks that were posted on the comments so I have no thoughts. I see some popular come up, like $OGCN. But I don’t know anything about that company besides it being popular on this subreddit.
Messaging me to ask on what company you should Invest in -
Sorry, I don’t want to answer that. Awesome how you took this post but again I am not an expert. Just sharing my years of experience. I invest with confidence but the risk will always be there. I don’t want you to jump in a boat I wasn’t aware had a hole in it.
What I do when I find interest in a stock but unsure on it is put it on my watchlist. With Ameritrade I am able to keep tabs on its performance, press release, and most of all the dip! But my watchlist consistently change.
Advice on learning to read candle sticks -
Man, this for sure was challenging for me. Probably because it is boring to learn lol. YouTube taught me. I don’t have any sound advice besides looking there. I can’t find the video that I saw repetitively anymore but just searching for it, I see a good amount of people teaching.
When I got comfortable, I experimented with $20 often to see if I had it down. I am sure some people just catch on to it, I wasn’t one of them. But now it is crazy easy to read.

Disclaimer: It is moronic to buy FDs. That is not the way to consistently build wealth. The very reason FDs pay off such huge returns is because on average their probability of expiring worthless is 99%. If you’re moronic enough to buy FDs with me, only do it with money that you are willing to literally set on fire. Actual fire. There are plenty of safer puts on DASH that will pay obscene returns this year..
TLDR: I believe DoorDash (DASH) is the greatest short opportunity of the year, and what’s more, rather than just having a general feeling, there are specific timetables enabling us to profit bigly. The company even admits themselves that they have peaked as a company.

Analysis:

“Food delivery with third-party apps like Grubhub and Uber Eats is booming, but no one's making money.” – Business Insider.

DoorDash is wildly overvalued. This is true by any metric, were it in essentially any industry. Add to that its in food delivery, which is a horrific, no margin industry in what has become a commoditized business and offers essentially no differentiation with its competitors. There is near zero differentiation between Uber Eats, Postmates, Caviar, Grubhub, DASH, or any local provider. In Austin we have Favor, for example. And nobody cares which company delivers their food, they only care which one does it cheapest.
If you view stock (as you should) as buying the entire business as an owner, how much would you be willing to pay for an undifferentiated company in a no margin commoditized business that has peaked (see below for more on that)? Because it’s currently selling for an insane $56 billion. Outrageous.
So how can we get a banana for scale to understand what that $56 billion means in terms of valuation?
Well, all of DoorDash’s competitors have either sold at or are trading at, or raised money at, a capitalization of 3x to 6x sales. DASH is trading at an absolutely insane 20+ x sales.
Just six months ago Postmates was acquired for $2.65 billion which put it at 4x sales. At 4x sales, DASH would trade at $32.
DASH used to be the business leader in this industry, but over the past 2-3 years Grubhub has exploded in size to take on nearly the same 33% of market share, and after Uber Eats bought Postmates, it too now has about a third of market share. So you now have three giants of roughly equal size battling it out in a business in which customers don’t give a motherloving frick about branding.

But don’t take my word for it on valuation, take smart money’s word

DoorDash raised money just a couple months ago at a $16 billion valuation. That is truly a stunning fact. In just a few months the WSB type day trading call buyers have bid this company all the way up to $56 billion from $16 billion without any material change to the business and completely ignoring the coming vaccine-induced reopening of restaurants. Again, the stock trades for a 300% markup to its recent smart money capital raise based on nothing but unfounded hopium.
You don’t have to take my word for it, your beloved Jim Cramer has even said the same thing, in his own idiotic, covering my ass, round about say nothing way. “It’s true that people using market orders took DoorDash to levels that maybe ... were far higher than they thought they’d have paid.” - Jim Cramer
I don’t care about his commentary, but you people seem to love him, so there you go. 😘

The Company, according to The Company, has peaked. It’s over.

There are two extremely interesting things buried in the S-1 we’re going to get into in a moment. One of them is that you don’t have to take my word for it that this company’s business has peaked. The company says so itself in its own S-1.

The circumstances that have accelerated the increase in Total Orders stemming from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic may not continue in the future, and we expect the growth rate in Total Orders to decline in future periods.

To put it simply, COVID numbers are falling, vaccines are rolling out at an impressive 1-2 million per day which puts our stated goal of 100 million vaccinated in 100 days within attainable reach. The economy will be opening up, people will want to be getting out of the house, restaurants will be reopening, and there will be huge pent up demand by people who have had extraordinarily high savings rates over the last year. Big chains will no longer have the need to get help from third party delivery apps at a 15% markup. We all know this is the case, and DoorDash even stated as much in its own filing. This stock is toast.

”Delivery via smartphone is one of those venture-funded sectors where business executives appear to have taken seriously the old joke about “losing money on every transaction but making it up on volume.” – New York Magazine

“DoorDash and Grubhub and Uber Eats... it’s a tough business for them. It’s very competitive. I think the business model is hard.” - Panera Bread CEO.

And Now the Fun Part

There are some wild share lockup expirations coming up. For those that don’t know, when you get these massive IPOs, insiders aren’t actually able to sell their shares on IPO day. They are locked up and the insiders just have to hope for the best that the stock will not lose value over the coming months. If the stock skyrockets in value, but the insiders know the business is trash or has peaked, you get the perfect recipe for a rush for the exits.
I love playing share lockups. I make a lot of money on them by selling spreads. A common question I get when I post them here is “if you know a drop is coming, why doesn’t the market just price it in?” The answer is because it can’t. No matter what the share price does, the lockup expiration date is the lockup expiration date. Insiders have to wait until that date, and it doesn’t matter whether the stock falls 0%, 5%, or 50%, they will all have to wait until that day to sell.
DoorDash has two share lockup expirations coming.
The first lockup expiration is an early release (heh) and hits 90 days after the Dec. 9 IPO, or around March 9, as long as the stock trades 25% higher than the IPO price for five out of 10 consecutive days of trading. That is to say, so long as DASH trades above $127.50 right before March 9, the lockup is triggered. The good news for you with this insane run up in price is that if the lockup isn’t triggered, it means the stock has already fallen from $190 to $127. It’s important to know March 9 is not a hard date exactly...some insiders can be allowed to go a few days prior. Also if they release earnings early the lockup could potentially occur at the end of this month.
I was talking to some folks on WSB about the lockup last week, and someone mentioned they thought only 20% of insider shares will be eligible. DoorDash's management and board members can sell up to 20% of their shares in that first wave, but other insiders can sell up to 40%. This means 113 million shares are eligible for sale in early lockup expiration. DoorDash’s daily volume is only 3-4 million shares. The current public float is roughly 123 million shares. This means you’re about to suddenly double the number of shares on the market.
Door Dash’s second lock-up expiration hits either 180 days after its IPO, which means around June 9 (more or less), or after the release of its first-quarter earnings report (whichever is earlier), and will free up “all remaining shares” according to the S-1, which if my math is correct is roughly 50 million shares.
These two expirations could spark violent sell-offs throughout the year.

Positions

FDs

I never buy FDs. I’ve never once bought them in my entire life. But I’m putting 1% of my portfolio into them on DASH because I’m confident big drops are coming. Unfortunately for you guys, the stock has already started falling this past month from its 🤡-level highs in the $200s, and worse yet the pricing/IV of all options has gotten more expensive. This means, I’m sorry to say, that you’re not going to find any options trading for pennies, or even anything less than $2. For your FDs, I recommend you buy puts at whatever the lowest strikes are that actually have any volume. The strikes go as low as $75, but most days show 0 volume and of course the bid/ask spread is enormous. There has been some volume at $95 recently, and you can get the $75s if you’re patient enough and willing to pay up for them. Expiration dates would be any time in mid to late March (again, looking for whatever has volume) so that it occurs after lockup 1, and the August 20s, which unfortunately are the closest expiration to the lockup occurring around June 9. I wish there was a closer expiration, but hey, more time for the stock to collapse. Plus you could always sell your puts after the June 9 drop with lots of theta meat still left on the bone.

Puts

I own March 12 $160 puts. I think the stock will drop healthily below this, but IV is high. I’m normally taking big swings with spreads, so when I buy puts outright, which is rare, I want to play it a little safer.
I also own the August 20 $145 puts.
And finally, I have six figure credit call spreads open at the $175 level. For newbies, this simply means I: Bought (yes bought) the March 12 $175 calls, and Sold the $172.50 calls.
I went huge on these because all I need is for DoorDash to trade below $172.50 after the lockup expiration and I’ll be having a Merry Christmas. That’s as close to risk free gains as you’re ever going to see in your life.

Bull case

The only bull case is that we’re in a raging, record-setting bull market and all stonks go up. The economy is opening back up, vaccines are rolling out, and stonks go up. But I think if you look at the DASH chart you can see that that is already starting to not be the case.

What are the negatives?

I plagiarized liberally from an old Citron Research report, although it doesn’t even mention share lockups. Yes, that Citron. For those of you who are newer members, I will tell you this; the little smart money social circles in and around WSB do not hate CItron, Hindenburg, or any other short selling firms. We respect them and welcome bearish cases on high flying stocks. Any intelligent trader does. It’s only the pump and dumpers who have a hatred for short reports. You should welcome contrarian views.

Parting Words.

I would welcome anyone pointing out where they think I may be wrong. I don’t care about saving face, I care about not losing money. If I’m wrong, I want to know it. I welcome constructive criticism.

Give Me One More TLDR At The End

This stock is going to collapse because it’s wildly overvalued, employees got in super cheap with shares they are waiting to sell, know the business has peaked, and they want to cash the fahk out. So swallow the high IV and buy puts today as fast as you can.
Love you guys.

I have been buying since this stock was at $0.60. My average moved up to $2.25 as the stock climbed and I continued to buy more. I sold and took some profits along the way, and would never begrudge anyone who did the same. I held off on selling at $2.50 in after hours last night, because all signs pointed to a strong pre-market today. As you know, we got one. I held through the sell-off from the upper 4s, down to the mid 2s. When it rebounded into the mid $3s, I sold a little, but I didn't panic because the market showed it's hand - I saw exactly where the market though the stock was valued. If you paid attention, you saw it, too.
To those who bought at a $3 or $4 price - please take a deep breath. I'm going to give you some perspective and 10 reasons for hope that the stock price is coming back to you. If you can afford to wait for the stock to come back to you, do so. You only take a loss when you execute the transaction. It could be back tomorrow for all we know. Or there could be acquisition news, which would send it soaring. If you have bills to pay, by all means take your losses and cash out. If you can afford to wait, I'm confident the stock will be back for you.
1) Two weeks ago, SNDL was a penny stock, at risk of being removed from the NASDAQ. We are two days away from them being fully re-listed for at least another year. This legitimizes the company in the eyes of investors and analysts.
2) SNDL received tremendous free press these past few weeks - the kind you cannot buy. Not all of it was great, but now everyone knows who they are.
3) SNDL used funds raised through new stock issuance to remove debt from their books. A debt-free company is much more valuable to investors than a debt-laden company. There are plenty of the latter in the cannabis industry.
4) SNDL now has the best asset on their balance sheet - cash. Plenty of it. Just like the absence of debt, the presence of cash is very attractive to investors.
5) Today's pullback/consolidation wasn't just SNDL. In fact, looking around the sector, SNDL has pulled back the least in terms of %, and it also held gains the longest.
6) Today is Thursday. On Monday, we celebrated the stock closing at $1.28. Tuesday was $1.65. At the time of this writing, we are at $2.50. Yesterday was tremendous momentum, today was a correction. A big correction, but when you think about it, we pulled back to where we in Wednesday pre-market.
7) Legalization hasn't gone anywhere. It's coming to the US, which is the largest global market. And while this is a Canadian company, they now have the war chest to make strategic moves through partnerships or acquisitions to position themselves for a decriminalization of marijuana and more states opening up.
8) The entire cannabis group is down today. Frequently, stocks come back strong the following day after a big sell off. Today may be a good day to buy those dips and claw back profits tomorrow.
9) Looking back at items 1 - 7, you have a company that is much more valuable today then it was a month ago. Heck, even a few days ago!
10) If you're sitting with 100 shares at $3.50, you now have an opportunity to buy 100 more shares at $2.50 and make your average cost $3.00. Not only does it cost less vs. your previous investment, but it allows you to get back to break even faster. But this only works if the stock climbs. So, you have to decide for yourself if it will.
For the past several hours, the price rarely has dipped before $2.50. Could it go lower? Sure, but the paper hands are mostly out at this point. I think we easily gain back $0.50 - $1.00 between today's power hour and after hours tomorrow. It even has a real chance of hitting $4.20 tomorrow if the exuberance comes back to the cannabis sector.
When the stock was at $4, it felt too rich to buy more. At $2.50, SNDL is on sale, and I like to buy when things are on sale. But, I'm not risking anything I cannot afford to lose, and you shouldn't either.
Obviously, none of this should be considered financial advice. I'm not a professional. I'm just here to give you perspective and to calm some frayed nerves.

So, today I googled „cannabis penny stocks” for some inspiration and came across this Stock. Namaste Technologies is a heavily shorted stock, which has a lot of potential. Also this is my first DD and English is not my native language, so don’t judge me please.
So what is Namaste Technologies and what are they doing?
Namaste Technologies is a world leading online platform for cannabis products, accessories and education. Their have headquarters in Ontarion, Toronto and further 9 cities all around the world. Namaste is seeking to build the first personalized health and wellness marketplace by offering different types of cannabis products. They currently have 24 websites and 5 warehouses operating in 24 countries around the world. Namaste Technologies has 6 main online platforms, let me introduce them to you.
· Cannmart. Cannmart is a huge retail platform, which offers a bunch of CBD and THC sorts. It is the first licensed non cultivator in Canada. Their cannabis is available for every class and every type of person (5-25$/gram depending on the THC%), which makes them very attractive for customers. Furthermore, Cannmart offers edibles of every possible taste, various oils, flowers, concentrates ans so on. They are also selling a bunch of accessories, like Glaswares, vaporizers, vaporizers parts etc. It is also important to mention that their delivery is quick af. If you are from Toronto or Ontario, you can expect your purchased products on the same day. Fort the rest of Canada it takes up to 2 days. Cannmart operates in 17 fucking countries.
PS. Namaste technologies owns 49% of Cannmart. Overall, after reading some of the reviews, I would say the avarege rating is 4-4.2 out of 5 stars, which is a good sign comrades.
I mean I am not a smoker, but while scrolling trough their website I have developed a desire a rolling a joint, which I will do after finishing this DD.
More Info: https://cannmart.com/
· Everyonedoesit: This platforms focuses on high quality glass pieces and vaporizers. Everyonedoesit is based in UK and in the US, but produces their products in the US and Europe. They have an offer of different types of bongs, like percolator bongs. Ice bongs, acrylic bongs and so on. Holy fuck idek the difference between them. Their offer of vaporizers is fascinating as well: desktop vaporizers, portable vaporizers and so on. The company had a bad reputation in the past. There was a stereotype, that everyonedoesit was scamming their customers. And then it was purchased by Namaste Technologies a couple of years ago. Since then everyonedoesit could attract a lof of weed lovers and leaving them satisfied. Overall the rating of their products is 4 out of 5 stars.
More Info: https://www.everyonedoesit.co.uk/
· Namaste MD: Namaste MD is a Medical Cannabis Prescription Platform, which provides a safe, simple and easy way to facilitate medical cannabis prescriptions to eligible patients in Canada via telemedicine. On this app/platform you can either make an appointment with a healthcare professional or just take to one of the medical advisors via skype or zoom. So how does it work? You either install a NamasteMD app on you phone or you fill in the application on your computer. Then you have to complete an online video conference with one of the consultants. Then you get approved and boom. You have your prescription and can buy weed freely. Patients gave this app 4.5 stars , since the support (from what I have heard) is amazing. Not to forget that NamasteMD operates very quickly (it takes approximately 3 days to get the prescription. Oh yeah and it is fucking free.
NamasteMD is fully owned by Namaste Technologies.
· Uppy. Uppy is a new and innovative app for anyone desiring to get the very best from their medical cannabis. Precisely record and monitor anything and everything to do with your medicinal cannabis intake. Doing it, they are trying to optimize your trip. I mean if I lived I Canada and not in Europe, I would definitely install this app. Ratings on app store: 4 out of 5 stars.
Uppy is fully owned by Namaste Technologies.
More Info: https://www.uppy.com/
· Australia Vaporizers: This platform is the largest Australian Vaporizer provider. Their website is offering all imaginable kinds of vaporizers. They focus on high quality vaporizers, and the price is according to the quality. 500USD should not surprise you if you visit their website. Their shipping is very fast and their support should be amazing. Namaste bought Australian Vaporizers for 6 Million back in 2017. As you can see this is the third company I have mentioned, which was bought by Namaste Technologies. This proves their will to expand and take things on another level.
More Info: https://www.australianvaporizers.com.au/
· Namaste Vapes: Namaste Vapes used to be a separate platform, which focuses on 25-40 year olds. However, Namaste Technologies decided to combine Namaste Vapes with Cannmart. So now you can find professionals, which will consultant 25-40 year olds on Cannmart.
Fundamentals:
• Market Cap: 96million
• Float: 320million
• Quarterly Revenue Growth: 49%
More Info: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXTTF/key-statistics?p=NXTTF
Financials:
• Revenue of Namaste Technologies is steadily increasing (2017: 11million, 2018: 18million, 2019: 19million, 2020: 19million by august 31st)
• Assets: 30million (13million cash). They are reinvesting all there earnings)
• Liabilities: 10million by August 31st, last years: 12 million
More Info: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NXTTF?p=NXTTF
Catalysators
· Namaste Technologies announced on February 2nd its Expansion into Nutraceuticals Market. How fucking awesome is that? We all know that Mushrooms and shit will be legal and free available in the near future. Namaste Technologies plans to expand their marketplace into Psychedelics.
Here you can find some more info about it:
https://www.namastetechnologies.com/namaste-technologies-announces-its-evolution-to-a-wellness-company-with-expansion-into-nutraceuticals-market/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/namaste-technologies-announces-evolution-wellness-223400008.html
Namaste Technologies will definitely announce more news in the next few weeks, so stay tuned. This could lead to a boom of this stock. Definitely long term for me.
· Namaste Technologies Advances USA Expansion Plans with TSX Exchange Approval to Proceed. So Cannmart may be operating not only in Canada and 17 other countries, but also in the US. This was announced today, that is also the reason for todays upside. Till the end of February it will be announced if Namaste Technologies gets approved or not. This a huge catalysator.
Namaste also announced that it will be collaborating with DankStop and PeakBirch Logic, Inc.
More Info:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/namaste-technologies-advances-usa-expansion-234900911.html
About DankStop: https://dankstop.com/
About PeakBirch Logic, Inc.: https://peakbirch.com/
IF YOU ARE WONDERING WHY THE STOCK HAS BEEN STRUGGLING FOR THE LAST MONTHS I HAVE AN ANSWER FOR YOU
Namaste Technologies is being heavily shorted. The short volume ratio is fucking 71% this is why it is struggling.
More Info: https://fintel.io/ss/us/nxttf
Conclusion: Definitely a long term for me. The price target of yahoo is 0.5, how every I can see it reaching 1 dollar in the next few weeks and above 2-3 dollars in the next few months. This is a great company with a lof of potential. Especially right now weed stock are skyrocketing, this one has not skyrocketed yet but it will soon.
This is not pump and dump!
Position: 1500 @ 0.210
I strongly recommend you to do your own dd. And sorry once again if there are any grammatical errors.
EDIT: Namaste Technologies Inc. owns 100% of Cannmart.

Hay hay, Ay, listen up, B, lemme holler at you a minute. I notice you been eyeing that portfolio real luscious like, almost like you found a couple extra bananas under your tree, am I right?
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Cool, cool. So whatchu holdin', homey? Tillllllray? Aw yiss. Aphria? Yeah, she fine as hell. CGC? Oh lawd, dat ass is bangin'. ACB? Aw man, you like the classics, that's dope. OGI? Into the up and comers, respect young blood. SNDL?
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SNDL? For real? Dude....
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Hi all, NrdRage here. You might remember me from such hits as "pegging $GME dead right multiple times during its bubble, making everybody rich on $RIOT, exposing the $PLUG infinite money glitch, accidentally helping start the $BB craze, never getting an $AMD weekly call right and being in an abusive relationship with the VIX" or maybe "The SEC and you: How you can just say no to having them shove a Mister Fister up your ass". Alright, apes, it's been a great few days being able to throw a dart at a wall of weed stocks and no matter where it sticks, you make money. It's been a great run. But if you're going to expand the acreage of your jungle and the amount of lady gorillas you earn the right to mate with, you gotta start thinking a bit. And that means - hear me out - thinking of how the hell you plan on getting out of SNDL alive. And yes, I realize I'm saying this right after it spiked almost a hundo percent in the last 24 hours. Look, I was playing it, too. I grabbed some 2/19 3c's and a shit ton of 1/22 1.5c's on Tuesday. I also got out of both of those today, though not as high up as I could have. If you check my history, you'll see I even said I was goingt to eye a re-entry. Then the market took a giant dump and gave me that entry, but I passed on it because I had done some research by that point. Whatever, profit's profit.
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Here's the TL:DR: It's basically a penny stock that's gotten pumped to hell. But the smart ape realizes when something has gone too mainstream and gets out of the way before the bulldozers wipe out his trees.
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Hey, I love shoving a share price around a bit as much as the next guy, I ain't gonna talk shit about that. But it seems like nobody has an exit strategy for this, and I'm starting to see a lot of really stupid shit about Holding to 42.69 and all the other ridiculous bullshit from people who clearly don't even know what they fuck they've invested in that the GME Gibbons fell for.
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Here's the reality of SNDL:

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The company was on the verge of bankruptcy around Thanksgiving, they have no other markets other than Canada, which is ridiculously oversaturated with weed to the point that wholesale prices are less than a dollar a gram. And they recently got forced to admit that their product fails to meet THC content requirements.
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In case you're wondering what that means, it means they sell skunkweed that they cut with paper and sawdust to make it cheaper. They sell garbage. And everyone knows it - their brand is associated with low quality crap.
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Plus, they actively solicited us to buy their stock to drive up the price, then diluted it to fuck with a billion share offering. Now, to their credit, this not only enabled them to become debt free, but also up their marketing budget and spend some time trying to create a brand. Don't get too excited, fucking Sam's Choice at Wal-Mart is a brand, too, doesn't mean you should stick a chub of their ground beef up your rectum. By reason of them selling skunkweed, their margins lag well behind that of their competitors.
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Looking at their financials, they've got 615 million in cash laying around. That's pretty good - except they're a company that burns 250 million a quarter. Which means they're going to dilute the fuck out of everyone again next month. They've got no exposure to the US market, but had no problem dropping "rumors" that they were going to break in to the US market through licensing deals - which turned out to be 1 pot shop in Bellingham, Washington. They have no real expansion plan anywhere in the world, for that matter.
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B...bu.....bu.bu....BUT NRDRAGE! Stonk go up ! Look at it! SNDL to the moon! 🚀 🚀 🚀 ).

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Yeah, I know. It's fucking crazy to talk shit about a stock when it's seemingly mid flight. But here I am anyways. Not to talk you out of the weed party - you should totally keep playing that for all it's worth - but rather to get people to see that they've probably outgrown skunkweed now.
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Look, the reason this thing mooned is because it was like a dollar. Hell, it was 13 cents not too far back. With a stock worth a dollar, it's easy to get a lot of other apes to throw a couple of bananas at it for the lulz. It's easy to shove around a penny stock with an extra 10 bucks you have laying around from another trade somewhere. But as the price goes up, so too goes up the perceived cost of entering. I can make a strong (unassailable, in fact), argument that $APHA at $25 is cheaper than SNDL at 3.25. But people are conditioned to like smaller numbers. Unfortunately, as the GME Gibbons learned, eventually you run out of buyers, and then things go tits up real fast.
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As the Prophet Biggie Smalls once said, Mo' Money Equals Mo' Problems. We all know this equation to be true. And here you are, sitting on bags of bananas you didn't know you were gonna have a week ago thanks to some stonk you hadn't heard of before yesterday. You don't think you've got a problem, but you do. Because those bags of bananas aren't edible until you turn them in to the bank for real cash. If you're sitting on bananas from the gold standard of the weed world (that would be, $TLRY), you're resting pretty easy that no other ape is gonna come by and steal your bananas. There are gonna be lots of bananas to go around, and mostly we're just taking bananas from fools who think their bananas will be less later. But you don't have that with SNDL. All the bananas are currently sitting with people who think the bananas will go higher. You can't all be right, especially when there are billions of bananas, and now your grandparents are starting to buy bananas because some Boomer on CNBC told them it would make their dick bigger and their friends think they were cooler.
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Again, I'm not telling you to leave the party

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But, if you recall your dorm room years, the best pizza you could afford was the Tony's school lunchroom style shit for a dollar. Then you managed to hide a few bucks from the people who collect your student loans, and you upgraded to Domino's. Maybe by now you're ordering from a local joint that makes it's own dough in house and the sauce is made with the love of an old Italian grandma who accidentally dips her sagging tiddies into the pot 3 times while making it. That just makes it taste better. That's science. But I digress.
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The point is, you can get better weed now. You don't have to smoke the skunk. So before you get the rug pulled out from beneath you and are stuck investing in shitty penny stocks again, maybe you should elevate your enterprise. Let's take a look at your options:
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Canopy Growth

You could go with $CGC. They not only sell higher quality weed, but are an established brand and also sell oils and shit to those hippie fucks who still think Burning Man isn't just a brogrammer beatfest and go to an acupuncturist to enhance their "luck". They've captured that all important 65+ stoner demographic by marketing their shit as a cure for seizures, cataracts, and dry vag, so they've got a lot of revenue. They've also had a much more muted rise this week because they just haven't been on everybody's lips, which means they've got a lot of room to run. The downside here is they burn almost as much cash as SNDL, but they've also got more bullets.
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Aurora

If you go with $ACB, you're going with a company that's already gone through its "shady as fuck" stage and has re-emerged healthy from it. You're also not only getting on weed, but the DIY urban chicken farmer types who want to grow their own weed. They, too, have had a strong run, but have a lot more runway than most because they've actually got a really strong path to dominance in the US market once it opens up to them.
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Organigram:

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Look, if your dick is still getting hard at the thought of playing a low dollar stonk or you've only got 28 dollars to invest, you could do a lot worse. They've got strong branding, large growth potential, a management structure that doesn't seem to act shady, and they've run almost as well as the other new generation of meme stonks, but lagged back enough because nobody can fucking rmeember their name to where they can rubber band a bit.
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Tilray and Aphria:

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I'm combining these because they're inexorably joined at the hip (or should be, more on that later) because the two of them are merging. For those who don't know, sometime in Q2, every share of $APHA you own will turn into .833 shares of $TLRY. Even though APHA is the one buying out TLRY. This is basically the gold standard of weed stonkery. When you start investing in these, you know you're a real investor.
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Here's the interesting thing with these guys, though. Even though APHIA should be just slightly trailing behind TLRY in terms of stock price, it's currently trading at less than half. With TLRY sitting at 73 a share as I write this, APHA should be at just over $60. But it's at 29. Now, obviously, this means that TLRY has a lot more momentum, and some of that is due to the fact that there's a mini (don't flog me for using the word, but it's true) short squeeze going on with that one, which has turned it into such a strong momentum play. But APHA, by virtue of actual math, needs to be within about 17% of TLRY's price. Which means APHA either needs to moon dramatically, or TLRY needs to fall precipitously. Now either of those things could happen, but the momentum of TLRY is hard to stop, which means it's more likely that APHA rubber bands to catch up to it in the coming months. Even if TLRY does falter, that means APHA still has to come up a bit to meet it. Making APHA kind of a "can't go tits up" situation. TLRY also has the benefit of having enough market cap to where fund bois will buy into it, whereas SNDL is too small to meet most of their requirements. Which can further propel TLRY (and thus, drag APHA with it).
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One of the interesting things that's been happening with this pair is that the order books, even though they should mirror one another, have completely inverted from one another numerous times in the last couple of days. This, of course, was a bull flag for TLRY every time it happened, leaving APHA to compensate to try and catch back up shortly thereafter. It's really easy money.
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Fundamentally, these guys have one HUUUUUUUGE advantage over the others: They secured the UK distribution, and now have the inside track to be the supplier for the rest of the Europoors across the pond who need to smoke a bond to help forget all the things wrong with them. And if you don't think they won't be able to leverage that to be the front runners out of the gate when the US opens for business, then you definitely ain't black.
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Or, you can just stay where you are and do the 💎👐 thing

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Ask the $GME Gibbons how well that worked out for them. The ones still holding that stonk are like that one dude sitting at the edge of the bar of the Viper Room, still rocking his mullet and chain wallet, just convinced that Warrant and Slaughter are going to ring in the glory days of hair metal once more and that Queensryche is going to start selling out stadiums again. It's just sad. You're flying right now, but a rug is gonna get pulled out from under you and then you're gonna have your own daily thread where you reassure yourselves that it's gonna be OK and that you're gonna ride it to a thousand one day. Lots of us (myself included) made a fuck ton of money on GME. And we've made a fuck ton on SNDL and the rest of the Weedies this week. But there are always people who Melvin it and hang on to their position too long and get stuck. That's gonna be a lot of you, but you shouldn't let it be you.
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TL:DR: Smart apes should look at their much bigger pile of bananas from SNDL while you're way ahead and upgrade them to plantains before the other apes. Plaintains equals breeding with better apes, not low quality apes that cannibalize fellow apes and give ape diseases.

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All my love
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-Chad Dickens
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EDIT 1: I forgot to list my positions
CGC - None
ACB - None
OGI - 10,000 shares @ $4.23, 1000 1/22 5c, 500 2/19 7.5c
TLRY: 20,000 shares @ 18.74, 100 2/12 65c, 500 2/19 65c, 500 2/12 42c, 5000 6/18 43c
APHA: 500 2/19 26c, 500 2/19 25c, 5000 7/16 30c
SNDL: Opted out today

Disclaimer: It is moronic to buy FDs. That is not the way to consistently build wealth. The very reason FDs pay off such huge returns is because on average their probability of expiring worthless is 99%. If you’re moronic enough to buy FDs with me, only do it with money that you are willing to literally set on fire. Actual fire. There are plenty of safer puts on DASH that will pay obscene returns this year..
TLDR: I believe DoorDash (DASH) is the greatest short opportunity of the year, and what’s more, rather than just having a general feeling, there are specific timetables enabling us to profit bigly. The company even admits themselves that they have peaked as a company.

Analysis:

“Food delivery with third-party apps like Grubhub and Uber Eats is booming, but no one's making money.” – Business Insider.

DoorDash is wildly overvalued. This is true by any metric, were it in essentially any industry. Add to that its in food delivery, which is a horrific, no margin industry in what has become a commoditized business and offers essentially no differentiation with its competitors. There is near zero differentiation between Uber Eats, Postmates, Caviar, Grubhub, DASH, or any local provider. In Austin we have Favor, for example. And nobody cares which company delivers their food, they only care which one does it cheapest.
If you view stock (as you should) as buying the entire business as an owner, how much would you be willing to pay for an undifferentiated company in a no margin commoditized business that has peaked (see below for more on that)? Because it’s currently selling for an insane $56 billion. Outrageous.
So how can we get a banana for scale to understand what that $56 billion means in terms of valuation?
Well, all of DoorDash’s competitors have either sold at or are trading at, or raised money at, a capitalization of 3x to 6x sales. DASH is trading at an absolutely insane 20+ x sales.
Just six months ago Postmates was acquired for $2.65 billion which put it at 4x sales. At 4x sales, DASH would trade at $32.
DASH used to be the business leader in this industry, but over the past 2-3 years Grubhub has exploded in size to take on nearly the same 33% of market share, and after Uber Eats bought Postmates, it too now has about a third of market share. So you now have three giants of roughly equal size battling it out in a business in which customers don’t give a motherloving frick about branding.

But don’t take my word for it on valuation, take smart money’s word

DoorDash raised money just a couple months ago at a $16 billion valuation. That is truly a stunning fact. In just a few months the WSB type day trading call buyers have bid this company all the way up to $56 billion from $16 billion without any material change to the business and completely ignoring the coming vaccine-induced reopening of restaurants. Again, the stock trades for a 300% markup to its recent smart money capital raise based on nothing but unfounded hopium.
You don’t have to take my word for it, your beloved Jim Cramer has even said the same thing, in his own idiotic, covering my ass, round about say nothing way. “It’s true that people using market orders took DoorDash to levels that maybe ... were far higher than they thought they’d have paid.” - Jim Cramer
I don’t care about his commentary, but you people seem to love him, so there you go. 😘

The Company, according to The Company, has peaked. It’s over.

There are two extremely interesting things buried in the S-1 we’re going to get into in a moment. One of them is that you don’t have to take my word for it that this company’s business has peaked. The company says so itself in its own S-1.

The circumstances that have accelerated the increase in Total Orders stemming from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic may not continue in the future, and we expect the growth rate in Total Orders to decline in future periods.

To put it simply, COVID numbers are falling, vaccines are rolling out at an impressive 1-2 million per day which puts our stated goal of 100 million vaccinated in 100 days within attainable reach. The economy will be opening up, people will want to be getting out of the house, restaurants will be reopening, and there will be huge pent up demand by people who have had extraordinarily high savings rates over the last year. Big chains will no longer have the need to get help from third party delivery apps at a 15% markup. We all know this is the case, and DoorDash even stated as much in its own filing. This stock is toast.

”Delivery via smartphone is one of those venture-funded sectors where business executives appear to have taken seriously the old joke about “losing money on every transaction but making it up on volume.” – New York Magazine

“DoorDash and Grubhub and Uber Eats... it’s a tough business for them. It’s very competitive. I think the business model is hard.” - Panera Bread CEO.

And Now the Fun Part

There are some wild share lockup expirations coming up. For those that don’t know, when you get these massive IPOs, insiders aren’t actually able to sell their shares on IPO day. They are locked up and the insiders just have to hope for the best that the stock will not lose value over the coming months. If the stock skyrockets in value, but the insiders know the business is trash or has peaked, you get the perfect recipe for a rush for the exits.
I love playing share lockups. I make a lot of money on them by selling spreads. A common question I get when I post them here is “if you know a drop is coming, why doesn’t the market just price it in?” The answer is because it can’t. No matter what the share price does, the lockup expiration date is the lockup expiration date. Insiders have to wait until that date, and it doesn’t matter whether the stock falls 0%, 5%, or 50%, they will all have to wait until that day to sell.
DoorDash has two share lockup expirations coming.
The first lockup expiration is an early release (heh) and hits 90 days after the Dec. 9 IPO, or around March 9, as long as the stock trades 25% higher than the IPO price for five out of 10 consecutive days of trading. That is to say, so long as DASH trades above $127.50 right before March 9, the lockup is triggered. The good news for you with this insane run up in price is that if the lockup isn’t triggered, it means the stock has already fallen from $190 to $127. It’s important to know March 9 is not a hard date exactly...some insiders can be allowed to go a few days prior. Also if they release earnings early the lockup could potentially occur at the end of this month.
I was talking to some folks on WSB about the lockup last week, and someone mentioned they thought only 20% of insider shares will be eligible. DoorDash's management and board members can sell up to 20% of their shares in that first wave, but other insiders can sell up to 40%. This means 113 million shares are eligible for sale in early lockup expiration. DoorDash’s daily volume is only 3-4 million shares. The current public float is roughly 123 million shares. This means you’re about to suddenly double the number of shares on the market.
Door Dash’s second lock-up expiration hits either 180 days after its IPO, which means around June 9 (more or less), or after the release of its first-quarter earnings report (whichever is earlier), and will free up “all remaining shares” according to the S-1, which if my math is correct is roughly 50 million shares.
These two expirations could spark violent sell-offs throughout the year.

Positions

FDs

I never buy FDs. I’ve never once bought them in my entire life. But I’m putting 1% of my portfolio into them on DASH because I’m confident big drops are coming. Unfortunately for you guys, the stock has already started falling this past month from its 🤡-level highs in the $200s, and worse yet the pricing/IV of all options has gotten more expensive. This means, I’m sorry to say, that you’re not going to find any options trading for pennies, or even anything less than $2. For your FDs, I recommend you buy puts at whatever the lowest strikes are that actually have any volume. The strikes go as low as $75, but most days show 0 volume and of course the bid/ask spread is enormous. There has been some volume at $95 recently, and you can get the $75s if you’re patient enough and willing to pay up for them. Expiration dates would be any time in mid to late March (again, looking for whatever has volume) so that it occurs after lockup 1, and the August 20s, which unfortunately are the closest expiration to the lockup occurring around June 9. I wish there was a closer expiration, but hey, more time for the stock to collapse. Plus you could always sell your puts after the June 9 drop with lots of theta meat still left on the bone.

Puts

I own March 12 $160 puts. I think the stock will drop healthily below this, but IV is high. I’m normally taking big swings with spreads, so when I buy puts outright, which is rare, I want to play it a little safer.
I also own the August 20 $145 puts.
And finally, I have six figure credit call spreads open at the $175 level. For newbies, this simply means I: Bought (yes bought) the March 12 $175 calls, and Sold the $172.50 calls.
I went huge on these because all I need is for DoorDash to trade below $172.50 after the lockup expiration and I’ll be having a Merry Christmas. That’s as close to risk free gains as you’re ever going to see in your life.

Bull case

The only bull case is that we’re in a raging, record-setting bull market and all stonks go up. The economy is opening back up, vaccines are rolling out, and stonks go up. But I think if you look at the DASH chart you can see that that is already starting to not be the case.

What are the negatives?

I plagiarized liberally from an old Citron Research report, although it doesn’t even mention share lockups. Yes, that Citron. For those of you who are newer members, I will tell you this; the little smart money social circles in and around WSB do not hate CItron, Hindenburg, or any other short selling firms. We respect them and welcome bearish cases on high flying stocks. Any intelligent trader does. It’s only the pump and dumpers who have a hatred for short reports. You should welcome contrarian views.

Parting Words.

I would welcome anyone pointing out where they think I may be wrong. I don’t care about saving face, I care about not losing money. If I’m wrong, I want to know it. I welcome constructive criticism.

Give Me One More TLDR At The End

This stock is going to collapse because it’s wildly overvalued, employees got in super cheap with shares they are waiting to sell, know the business has peaked, and they want to cash the fahk out. So swallow the high IV and buy puts today as fast as you can.
Love you guys.

Published courtesy of Citizens for Securities Reform, at http://counterfeitingstock.com/CS2.0/CounterfeitingStock.html
Abusive shorting are not random acts of a renegade hedge funds, but rather a coordinated business plan that is carried out by a collusive consortium of hedge funds and prime brokers, with help from their friends at the DTC and major clearinghouses. Potential target companies are identified, analyzed and prioritized. The attack is planned to its most minute detail.
The plan consists of taking a large short position, then crushing the stock price, and, if possible, putting the company into bankruptcy. Bankrupting the company is a short homerun because they never have to buy real shares to cover and they don't pay taxes on the ill-gotten gain.
When it is time to drive the stock price down, a blitzkrieg is unleashed against the company by a cabal of short hedge funds and prime brokers. The playbook is very similar from attack to attack, and the participating prime brokers and lead shorts are fairly consistent as well.
Typical tactics include the following:
Flooding the offer side of the board - Ultimately the price of a stock is found at the balance point where supply (offer) and demand (bid) for the shares find equilibrium. This equation happens every day for every stock traded. On days when more people want to buy than want to sell, the price goes up, and, conversely, when shares offered for sale exceed the demand, the price goes down.
The shorts manipulate the laws of supply and demand by flooding the offer side with counterfeit shares. They will do what has been called a short down ladder. It works as follows: Short A will sell a counterfeit share at $10. Short B will purchase that counterfeit share covering a previously open position. Short B will then offer a short (counterfeit) share at $9. Short A will hit that offer, or short B will come down and hit Short A's $9 bid. Short A buys the share for $9, covering his open $10 short and booking a $1 profit.
By repeating this process the shorts can put the stock price in a downward spiral. If there happens to be significant long buying, then the shorts draw from their reserve of "strategic fails-to-deliver" and flood the market with an avalanche of counterfeit shares that overwhelm the buy side demand. Attack days routinely see eighty percent or more of the shares offered for sale as counterfeit. Company news days are frequently attack days since the news will "mask" the extraordinary high volume. It doesn't matter whether it is good news or bad news.
Flooding the market with shares requires foot soldiers to swamp the market with counterfeit shares. An off-shore hedge fund devised a remarkably effective incentive program to motivate the traders at certain broker dealers. Each trader was given a debit card to a bank account that only he could access. The trader's performance was tallied, and, based upon the number of shares moved and the other "success" parameters; the hedge fund would wire money into the bank account daily. At the end of each day, the traders went to an ATM and drew out their bribe. Instant gratification.
Global Links Corporation is an example of how wholesale counterfeiting of shares will decimate a company's stock price. Global Links is a company that provides computer services to the real estate industry. By early 2005, their stock price had dropped to a fraction of a cent. At that point, an investor, Robert Simpson, purchased 100%+ of Global Links' 1,158,064 issued and outstanding shares. He immediately took delivery of his shares and filed the appropriate forms with the SEC, disclosing he owned all of the company's stock. His total investment was $5205. The share price was $.00434. The day after he acquired all of the company's shares, the volume on the over-the-counter market was 37 million shares. The following day saw 22 million shares change hands - all without Simpson trading a single share. It is possible that the SEC has been conducting a secret investigation, but that would be difficult without the company's involvement. It is more likely the SEC has not done anything about this fraud.
Massive counterfeiting can drive the stock price down in a matter of hours on extremely high volume. This is called "crashing" the stock and a successful "crash" is a one-day drop of twenty-percent or a thirty-five percent drop in a week. In order to make the crash "stick" or make it more effective, it is done concurrently with all or most of the following:
Media Assault -
The shorts, in order to realize their profit, must ultimately put the victim into bankruptcy or obtain shares at a price much cheaper than what they shorted at. These shares come from the investing public who panics and sells into the manipulation. Panic is induced with assistance from the financial media.
The shorts have "friendly" reporters with the Dow Jones News Agency, the Wall Street Journal, Barrons, the New York Times, Gannett Publications (USA Today and the Arizona Republic), CNBC and others. The common thread: A number of the "friendly" reporters worked for The Street.com, an Internet advisory service that short hedge-fund managers David Rocker and Jim Cramer owned. This alumni association supported the short attack by producing slanted, libelous, innuendo laden stories that disparaged the company, as it was being crashed.
One of the more outrageous stories was a front-page story in USA Today during a short crash of TASER's stock price in June 2005. The story was almost a full page and the reporter concluded that TASER's electrical jolt was the same as an electric chair - proof positive that TASERs did indeed kill innocent people. To reach that conclusion the reporter over estimated the TASER's amperage by a factor of one million times. This "mistake" was made despite a detailed technical briefing by TASER to seven USA Today editors two weeks prior to the story. The explanation "Due to a mathematical error" appeared three days later - after the damage was done to the stock price.
Jim Cramer, in a video-taped interview with The Street.com, best described the media function:
When (shorting) ... The hedge fund mode is to not do anything remotely truthful, because the truth is so against your view, (so the hedge funds) create a new 'truth' that is development of the fiction... you hit the brokerage houses with a series of orders (a short down ladder that pushes the price down), then we go to the press. You have a vicious cycle down - it's a pretty good game.
This interview, which is more like a confession, was never supposed to get on the air; however, it somehow ended up on YouTube. Cramer and The Street.com have made repeated efforts, with some success, to get it taken off of YouTube.
Analyst Reports -
Some alleged independent analysts were actually paid by the shorts to write slanted negative ratings reports. The reports, which were represented as being independent, were ghost written by the shorts and disseminated to coincide with a short attack. There is congressional testimony in the matter of Gradiant Analytic and Rocker Partners that expands upon this. These libelous reports would then become a story in the aforementioned "friendly" media. All were designed to panic small investors into selling their stock into the manipulation.
Planting moles in target companies -
The shorts plant "moles" inside target companies. The moles can be as high as directors or as low as janitors. They steal confidential information, which is fed to the shorts who may feed it to the friendly media. The information may not be true, may be out of context, or the stolen documents may be altered. Things that are supposed to be confidential, like SEC preliminary inquiries, end up as front-page news with the short-friendly media.
Frivolous SEC investigations -
The shorts "leak" tips to the SEC about "corporate malfeasance" by the target company. The SEC, which can take months processing Freedom of Information Act requests, swoops in as the supposed "confidential inquiry" is leaked to the short media.
The plethora of corporate rules means the SEC may ultimately find minor transgressions or there may be no findings. Occasionally they do uncover an Enron, but the initial leak can be counted on to drive the stock price down by twenty-five percent. The announcement of no or little findings comes months later, but by then the damage that has been done to the stock price is irreversible. The San Francisco office of the SEC appears to be particularly close to the short community.
Class Action lawsuits -
Based upon leaked stories of SEC investigations or other media exposes, a handful of law firms immediately file class-action shareholder suits. Milberg Weiss, before they were disbanded as a result of a Justice Department investigation, could be counted on to file a class-action suit against a company that was under short attack. Allegations of accounting improprieties that were made in the complaint would be reported as being the truth by the short friendly media, again causing panic among small investors.
Interfering with target company's customers, financings, etc. -
If the shorts became aware of clients, customers or financings that the target company was working on, they would call and tell lies or otherwise attempt to persuade the customer to abandon the transaction. Allegedly the shorts have gone so far as to bribe public officials to dissuade them from using a company's product.
Pulling margin from long customers -
The clearinghouses and broker dealers who finance margin accounts will suddenly pull all long margin availability, citing very transparent reasons for the abrupt change in lending policy. This causes a flood of margin selling, which further drives the stock price down and gets the shorts the cheap long shares that they need to cover. (Click here for more on Pulling Margin).
Paid bashers -
The shorts will hire paid bashers who "invade" the message boards of the company. The bashers disguise themselves as legitimate investors and try to persuade or panic small investors into selling into the manipulation. (Click here for Confessions Of A Paid Stock Basher).
This is not every trick the shorts use when they are crashing the stock. Almost every victim company experiences most or all of these tactics.
How Pervasive Is This?
At any given point in time more than 100 emerging companies are under attack as described above. This is not to be confused with the day-to-day shorting that occurs in virtually every stock, which is purportedly about thirty percent of the daily volume.
The success rate for short attacks is over ninety percent-a success being defined as putting the company into bankruptcy or driving the stock price to pennies. It is estimated that 1000 small companies have been put out of business by the shorts. Admittedly, not every small company deserves to succeed, but they do deserve a level playing field.
The secrecy that surrounds the shorts, the prime brokers, the DTC and the regulatory agencies makes it impossible to accurately estimate how much money has been stolen from the investing public by these predators, but the total is measured in billions of dollars. The problem is also international in scope

• The original author's account was deleted, so unfortunately I can't credit them. Regardless, full credit to them. This post was included in the deletion, so it took a decent amount of digging to find and save. Shoutout to u/adamfixeseverything. Enjoy. -

Hey guys,
I thought I’d post about my thoughts on MMED. First of all, please do your own due diligence and do not fall victim to the pump, hype and euphoria. These are highly speculative investments and have significant risk associated. All that said, there have been many requests for fundamental analysis and MMED projections so I wanted to provide my thoughts.
*All figures in USD (market cap, sales) except for my investment holdings. I purchased MMED.NE shares. Source data available as well, but got messy with all the 10-k filings and links in the table.
Entry Point
First and foremost, I want to address the most commonly raised question on this thread: “Is it too late to buy MMED?” Any investment is subject to the risk / reward paradigm. Those that got in at $0.3 deserve every penny they earned as MMED was by definition a penny stock and one of the most risky investments you could own. Since then, it has grown tremendously due to scientific milestones which have pointed to significant progress in the industry.
The milestones MMED has achieved have DERISKED MMED from a penny stock to a small cap biotech company with a very large drug portfolio and numerous future catalysts. I do not expect to make 10x my investment in a week, nor should you. Is there still tremendous upside even at the current valuation of ~$1.5bn? I strongly believe so and will let my position reinforce that.
I entered this space with an average cost of ~$4.9 CAD, holding 311,206 shares, and a book value of ~1.5MM. Yes you read that correctly. Do I panic every day and check the ticker? No. Does my heart beat thinking of the time I evaporated ~$500,000 in unrealized loss when the stock was at $3.4? No. In fact, I continue to pick up shares at what I believe is a discounted valuation. There will be many that look at $4.9 entry point and think that even I got in at the bottom. It’s all relative.
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OP's Original Investment
I only invested what I could afford to lose and although $1.5MM is a large sum of money, it is not my entire portfolio, nor would it impact my daily life. If I lost it all it would not impact my ability to service my mortgage, pay my bills, impact my other investments, nor prohibit me from doing the things I love. I continue to hold dry powder and monitor my investment on a monthly basis, while continuing to buy following successful milestones.
This is a very long term play that could fundamentally change the way we treat the body’s most important organ. We are just getting started. I have a very strong conviction on the future outcome of this industry and that is the reason I couldn’t be bothered about short term fluctuations. An important question to ask yourself is whether you believe MMED can reach its next scientific milestone. Take things one step at a time and is there a probability the next scientific update will be positive? Emphasis on science, ignoring NASDAQ, candlesticks, and capital structure (for now).
Institutional Capital
I work in finance (albeit project finance / private equity, and don’t value stocks for a living, so don’t consider me an expert here) but already know of a few moderately capitalized asset managers that are now participating in MMED. The recent bought deals are evidence of sophisticated capital flowing into this industry. I personally qualify as an ‘accredited investor’ and am having conversations constantly with folks in my circles who are investing heavily into these stocks. As more institutional capital flows in, the more stable these stocks become. Of course, this is all relative.
Access to liquidity
As with all brand new industries, the capital requirement is immense in order to bring products to market. What drew me into the space was the fact that MMED did raise capital. Biotech stocks do not have cashflow, thus their only path to fund operations is through equity raises. The fact that MMED was able to raise over $237MM CAD since May 2019 is a positive for this company. Yes it is dilutive, and good job for paying attention in finance 101 class, but bootstrapping a biotech company is not possible, nor is servicing debt.
The path to commercialization of will be full of obstacles, however a strong balance sheet with sufficient capital gives MMED the resources to get there. The current valuation has tremendous upside following scientific milestones and future equity raises and dilutions are a good thing, as it will be at an increased valuation.
There are definitely smaller cap companies out there that may double overnight, however for the risk / reward, I do not feel comfortable owning companies that don’t have a large balance sheet, nor a diversified drug portfolio.
Believe in the Science
I do not feel I am in a position to write original content on the efficacy of these drugs. I have done my research and read a fair number of published studies but anything that I write would simply be regurgitating what others have said.
The biggest investors in this space are those with personal experiences with psychedelics because you have first-hand experience of the profound meaning extracted from one treatment. The ability to dissolve your ego enables you to deal with the root cause of so many problems ranging from depression, PTSD and addition, without approaching the problem by numbing symptoms. Herein lies the inherent value of this industry and will simply take time to prove it through trails. I have the conviction to continue to invest because I believe in the science. The data to reinforce this is on its way, and I personally want to invest now, knowing that the likelihood of very significant catalysts are probable.
Forecasts
This of course is the elephant in the room for early investors, later[er] investors and bears alike. Is a $1.5bn market cap pricing in all of the upside already? Is this a $100bn stock? This company has zero revenues, shouldn’t it be worth zero?
The truth is, no one knows. There is tremendous risk with this company. However, I will not be selling unless we see some significant negative scientific outcomes. Again, less emphasis on stock price, NASDAQ, more emphasis on the science. Everything else will follow.
The various ways to value a company (DCF, sales / earnings multiples, liquidation value etc) all have their issues with an early stage company of this nature. Any sort of bottoms up DCF analysis is just guessing because variables such as patient count, dosage, pricing, market share, market penetration, amongst other have far too much variation to come up with a reliable figure. Discount rates and time horizon can favour your outcome depending on how aggressive / conservative you are.
Thus, the way I like to look at this market is a best case scenario for a single drug, based off historical sales data from one company and one drug. This implicitly takes into account patient dosage, competition, market share, market penetration etc, because one drug from one company has already proven its ability to capture such sales data.
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Data
I have broken out annual sales data for various comparable drugs according to MMED’s current pipeline offering. This is the inherent benefit of MMED, is that it has a diverse portfolio covering many underserved issues. Like many of you, I believe MMED’s biggest blockbuster will be Layla, given the problem of Opioid addition plus MMED’s IP rights on 18-MC to corner sales. Suboxone is the current drug on the market due to delayed onset effects ranging from 24-36 hours, compared to someone in withdrawal uses fast acting opioids 3-4 times a day. Suboxone itself however is still addictive and has a long list of negative side effects. Furthermore, it does not correct dopamine dysregulation in patients.
The sales of Suboxone alone are growing at an ~9% CAGR, with sales expected to reach ~$4bn in 2028
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/18/2079779/0/en/Opioid-Use-Disorder-OUD-in-8-Major-Markets-2018-2028-Reformulations-of-Buprenorphine-Will-Drive-Growth.html.
The use case for 18-MC however, does not stop at Opioid addiction, and can be applied to alcohol dependency and smoking dependency among others. This means the TAM for 18-MC could be significantly larger than the existing market captured by Suboxone given its smaller demographics relative to 18-MC. Could Layla exhibit sales greater than Suboxone one day? Who knows. Sticking with comp sales for the analysis for now.
Various anxiety, depression and ADHD medication is also shown in the table to show sales potential of Lucy, Albert and the micro dose programmes.
Is there a possibility of a LSD, 18-MC, or LSD compound or derivative achieving blockbuster drug status? Do you think there is an inherent benefit to a psychedelic compared to an antidepressant sedative with side effects such as nausea, weight gain etc?
Your perceived probability and sales outcomes depends on whether you believe in the science. Those that don’t can easily be skeptical of a $1.5bn market cap many years away from profitability.
Those that do, look at the next half a dozen clinical trial outcomes as very probable and thus have applied a less punitive discount to the stock valuation. I have rationalized my decision to invest at $1.5MM because of my own perceived discount rate and confidence in the next 12 months of positive catalysts.
Valuation Multiples
Now, as many of you know, investors pay a multiple for the future earnings of a company, today. If a drug makes $1bn annually, investors will pay a multiple of future earnings expected over the drugs lifetime, discounted by various factors.
There are various metrics to use here, ranging from Enterprise Value / Sales or various types of earnings metrics. MMED is years away from having a real operating company, anything to sell, or even the corporate infrastructure to get it to market. However, the question has always been, how big do you think this company could get?
This is where things can get tricky. We used peak annual sales in the last section to forecast comparable estimates for MMED revenues. Thus, I believe it is appropriate to use mature, large cap trading multiples instead of early stage bio techs, as our revenue estimates were mature figures with stabilized growth. If we were to use companies / drugs earlier in their lifecycle or clinical phases, the trading multiples would be much higher because the market is buying potential future sales. Can’t have it both ways.
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Chart
All of the chart data in the graph is specific to the pharma industry. However, there are various subsectors to the industry such as Contract Development Manufacturing and Contract Research Organization. MMED would likely have to partner with each of these types of firms to scale its business, better assess market size etc, but wouldn’t trade at similar multiples given a different business model. Same goes for Packaging and Distribution.
The graph also shows S&P average which is a good rule of thumb.
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Other chart
Although the chart gives a good reference point for pharma multiples, I wanted to look at valuation from a more company specific perspective. The chart above shows large cap specialty pharma companies that are publically traded. This will give you an approximate median value of what the market is willing to pay for a company that has a certain amount of sales. As you can see in the green box, industry multiples of EV/EBIITDA or EV/Sales will basically get you to the same place. Median pharma industry EBITDA margins are in the 40% range with EV/Sales at ~4x vs EV/EBITDA of 10x.
Note that the above list of trading comps is stale data, as of Sept ’19. I only want to use public data and have refrained from using Bloomberg, Cap IQ etc. Thus the information I’m posting is merely reposts of info available on Google. As you can see, Allergan is listed in this table as a live trading comp, and has since been acquired by AbbVie. Accordingly, I want to highlight some notable M+A activity:
Amgen acquires Celgne’s plaque psoriasis drug, Otezla $13.4bn: EV / LTM Sales = 7.6x Thermo Fisher acquires Qiagen for $11.5bn: EV / LTM Sales = 7.3x Abbvie acquires Allergan for $84.2bn: EV / LTM Sales = 5.4x Elanco acquires Bayer’s animal health unit for $7.6bn: EV / LTM Sales = 4.5x As you can see, companies are willing to pay a premium in M&A to acquire competitors and drugs, due to synergies, reduction in SG&A etc.
This is a very long winded way of showing that if one of MMED’s compounds hits, and exhibits sales in line with any sort of comparable drug from the table above, this could be a $20-30 billion dollar company (~4bn*5-7x). If several of these drugs reach commercialization, this is potentially a $100 billion dollar company.
Now I agree that these projections are completely outlandish right now. I’m simply doing the exercise you all wanted.
Feel free to guess at your own forecast sales and multiply out enterprise value using the above metrics. Before you rip me apart for the extreme optimism, I understand that I’m using multiples for stable, reputable, large cap pharma. I understand that there is an extreme amount of stigma attached to psychedelics and achieving ubiquity for these treatments is a large uphill battle. There is an enormous amount of work, luck and time from now until sales and this is not to be under estimated.
Do I think MMED is worth $30-$100bn today? No.
Do I think MMED is worth somewhere in between today’s valuation and $30-$100bn?
Depends whether you believe in the science. If you’re reading this, odds are you do. I invested because I believe it too.
So instead, let’s take a lazy man’s approach to valuation and take things one step at a time.
Simpler Approach to Valuation
The exercise above is to show you all the immense potential of MMED’s drug portfolio. Do I think MMED is the next Pfizer, Abbie Vie or Eli Lilly? No. This is not a $500bn dollar company. However, I do genuinely think there is tremendous upside not factored into the pricing for this stock.
Fundamental analysis aside, I think the simplest way to approach valuation is from a catalyst + efficient market hypothesis perspective. Markets are not fully efficient, nor even semi-efficient, but there is some sort of reasoning in believing what the market is willing to pay. The obvious flaws in this are that the market right is riddled with irrational investors and a market of 300m financially illiterate traders isn’t more efficient than an illiquid market of 10 rational ones. As of today’s post there is a discount to the $4.40 price. To me, that’s just more opportunity to continue to scoop up more shares.
I have stayed out of the industry in the early days because truthfully I did not know which stocks to pick. Since then, much smarter people than me have done their diligence and allocated their capital to the companies that they believe are winners. This is part of an efficient market hypothesis.
Sophisticated capital flowed into MMED @ 4.40 / share, with the expectation to make a profit. I also, invested in this company at $4.9/share, with the expectation to make a profit. If we establish this as a baseline, do we believe there will be more positive than negative catalysts in the next year and in the future, such that we will see accretion in the share price? Conversely, if we see negative outcomes in future catalysts, it will cause erosion in the stock valuation. Below are near term events which should have a significant impact on share price:
Project Lucy
Phase 2 readout– Q1 2021 Open IND w/ FDA for Phase 2b – Q3 2021 Project Layla
Phase 2a study– Second half of 2021 Strategic Pharma Partner Potential – Late 2021 Various
Combined MDMA LSD Phase 1 trail – Q1 2021 IV DMT Phase 1 trail – Q1 2021 First ever Phase 2a clinical trial Microdose LSD – Q3 2021 Patent filed for neutralizer technology for LSD to shortestop hallucinogenic effects Game changer for safe, regulated environment for clinical administration Given that Phase 1 studies are focused on safety, what are the odds clinically developed LSD / MDMA fails a safety test?
Given that Phase 2 studies are focused on proof of concept and method, what are the odds the clinically designed process fails the test?
Believe in the science.
Each one of these incremental catalysts derisks MMED, and will bring the valuation closer to ‘blockbuster drug’ status, albeit inches at a time. Just as the bought deal derisked this company for me to participate, achievements in clinical trials will be evidence for more investors to jump in as well. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and guess at how large this company can get. Just think of what is the next step and do your own evaluation as to whether achieving it is realistic. Once we get through the above list, there will be more milestones to pass such as Phase 2bs and 3s. If we establish $4.40 as the baseline currently and MMED has a successful outcome in any of the previously listed catalysts, there should be a significant accretion in valuation.
There is a noticeable omission for most of you, in that I’ve left out the NASDAQ up listing, future dilutions and general capital structuring events. To me, a NASDAQ uplisting is irrelevant. This will add liquidity, although probably more volatility, but changes zero fundamentals about the stock. It should however, add more weight to the efficient market hypothesis and erase the discount I believe this stock is trading at. We’ll see some analyst coverage with price targets that will attract more investors, but the fundamentals of the stock do not change.
With respect to stock price, it is impossible to forecast this because the capital structure of this company is completely unknown. IF we can even get to revenue generation, and this becomes a $30-100bn company, how much dilution will there be from now until then to back out a share price? The point is that there is so much runway in share price accretion from now until then, that I’m not bothered with anything finance related for this company. There is potential for 50-70x accretion in the value of this company. The focus needs to be on the science. MMED has raised enough money to get though its next set of obstacles and fund operations, thus insolvency risk has fallen away for now which is really the only important financial point for early stage biotech.
Let’s take things one step at a time, believe in the science and be patient.
Cash position & Expenditures
As you can see below, the quarterly burn payroll burn rate is quite low for MMED relative to its cash position. It’s hard to discern which items under their historical expenditures are one off versus recurring, thus difficult to calculate their exact run rate. However, the huge positive here the low ratio of payroll relative to its cash.
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Data table
Next up we have the projected use of proceeds from their latest raise, net of underwriter expenses. Now that the Over-Allotment has been exercised, MMED has additional capital that it has further allocated to Albert, Lucy, Layla and the Microdose LSD program.
​ Proceeds Table
General takeaway is that MMED is well enough capitalized to get through its next phase of milestones. I will be keeping an eye on news surrounding the Microdose LSD program. Estimates at this stage for Phase 2a are $3-4m and the results of which will inform capital expenditures required for future phases. A positive milestone in Q3 ’21 should be an incredibly positive catalyst for this company.
Proving that you’ve raised capital and have enough cashflow to get to the next step doesn’t guarantee we’ve picked the winner in the industry. It does however give me confidence that MMED will continue to be a going concern for at least the short term and get to a point when new investors can come in at a much higher valuation. This is a real risk for the penny stocks out there without capital or IP, and that is the reason I chose MMED.
Edit: Did some re-formatting to make it easier to read cause it's pretty lengthy and there's a lot of details. Hopefully it helps.
Edit #2: I went back into the trash compacter and salvaged the original data and charts since some people were asking. The resolution may be questionable, so apologies for that, you might have to zoom in.