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Investment theory and penny stocks

I've taught college-level investments classes, and I think a lot of you people would benefit from some of what we talk about in there.
It's important for you to understand what exactly risk is, in the finance sense. Watch this video and think about how you would react in this scenario. The expected value (average value of all possible outcomes) of the case is $500,000.50. I have a feeling that if you sold that case on the market you'd find a market price below that; the difference between the expected value and the market price (assuming a fully liquid market) is the risk premium
A central concept of finance and investments is this: the more risk you take, the more return you get. The safest thing you can do is convert your holdings to cash and stick it in your wallet, but you would get zero return (and lose purchasing power due to inflation over time). Technically, sticking money in a savings account is riskier, though interest rates on savings deposits is essentially zero these days and deposit insurance removes most of that risk. Any market play that gets you massive returns is putting a bunch of capital at risk (think about that WSB guy who put $700,000 into GME options; imagine what happens to the guy if the price doesn’t move). The reason the most common investment advice is to fire everything into low-cost index funds is because it’s low risk and low cost (active management of mutual funds rarely justifies the extra cost, but that’s a different discussion entirely). If you’re undertaking extra risk, you theoretically should be getting extra return to justify that risk. Think about a lottery ticket. If the jackpot is high enough, the expected value (the averaged return you get from all possible outcomes) of a lottery ticket is higher than the price you pay for it. However, given the limited set of outcomes that a lottery ticket gives you and the likelihood of the worst case scenario (you lose your entire investment), the risk is too high for most people to seriously invest in (and if you do “seriously” invest in the Powerball, you’re probably not having a good time).
Another important consideration is liquidity. If you're selling a Stradivarius violin, you're going to have to spend a lot of time searching for a buyer who will pay full price OR you’ll have to sell it for less than it’s worth. In the market, this tends to be reflected in the bid/ask spread. We like to think about the market as a monolith, but in reality it’s just an aggregation of all the investors out there. That means liquidity isn’t a problem when it comes to most stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ (eg. At the time of this writing the bid/ask spread on AAPL was $.01 for a price of $136.79), but when you head to OTC territory you might start seeing bid/ask spreads that can be up to 10% of the price for some of those real “no man’s land” stocks. That means that the price you pay (the ask price) and the price you can sell at (the bid price) can be wildly different. That also means that any “at current market price” order you send (especially in pre-market) may be filled at a price different than the price you think it’s going to be filled at.
A third concept to think about is market efficiency. The central idea of market efficiency is that the price reflects all available information (different forms of efficiency consider private/public/historical info). A truly efficient market will react instantaneously and accurately to any new information that is created/released, eg. A firm releases earnings and beats expectations, therefore the price jumps up.
If market efficiency is a product of investors discovering information and acting on it, that means your best opportunities are in places that are less visible to the aggregate investing public. That’s where pennystocks comes in. Do a search on most of the tickers listed here, and you’ll see a bunch of summary stock profiles and not much else. Do a search for any S&P 500 company and you’ll find an incredible amount of news, branding, and other information. If you’re looking for “good” penny stocks to buy up, you’re looking for an information advantage over the “average” investor. However, there is the hazard (that’s been around long before the internet) of bad or fake information.
Remember that the market is an aggregate of all the investors out there, and those investors are subject to psychological biases, differences in personal attitude, and individual risk tolerance. That’s why you see some interesting reactions to events: remember when TSLA stock dropped because Elon Musk was smoking marijuana? There’s nothing about the CEO smoking marijuana that should change the fundamental value of the company, but investors collectively seemed to think this was a negative for the long term prospects of TSLA.
A few common investor biases:
• Losses are treated as more impactful than a gain. Think about if you buy into a stock and it immediately drops $.10. Compare this to how you react if you buy in and it immediately jumps $.10; the average investor is going to react more strongly to the former.
• We all hate having made a “loser” trade. The effect is usually that investors hold on too long to a poorly performing stock in hopes that it will rebound.
• Investors tend to anchor their perception of a stock’s performance based on their entry price. A $.10 drop in price hits worse if it takes you below your purchase price
• Playing with “house money” (ie. your gains) is treated differently than your initial principal. In practice, this means that an investor that has done well recently is more risk-tolerant (and not always in a good way)
• Investors are susceptible to "herding" behavior, where they follow what someone else is doing not because they know what that someone else is doing is good, but because they think that someone else knows something they don't.
Stock prices are subject to the principles of supply and demand, ie. increased demand will raise the price, and people looking to sell more than buy will lower the price. This is especially important when it comes to momentum (the principle that an increasing stock price will continue to increase and a falling price will continue to fall). This is why you see overreactions to news items and a subsequent reversal; a news item creates a buying/selling frenzy that pushes the price until cooler heads walk in and say “maybe this price is wrong”. This is where swing traders try to profit: among other things, they look for stocks that have a drop that is unjustified in material info or in the degree of drop, buy up at “downward momentum” prices and sell after the reversal. Day traders also try to benefit by buying stocks with positive momentum and selling the second that momentum reverses.
So what does this mean for us at pennystocks? A few considerations that are unique for penny stocks:
1) I already mentioned it, but liquidity is a big consideration: Bid/ask spreads may be larger than normal and many brokers either don’t let you trade below $.01 or make you pay a fee to do so. This also means that options covering penny stocks are either sparse or nonexistent.
2) Information coverage: information can be hard to find, and sifting through good and bad info can be a chore
3) Low market participation: The smaller number of traders means that it takes fewer people to influence the price in a material way. This is what makes penny stocks susceptible to pump and dump schemes: A bad actor just needs to convince a (relatively) small number to buy in to a stock to bump up the price, then the dump can crater the price leaving a bunch of bag holders in their wake.
This also means that the price is subject to more psychological bias on the part of investors.
4) There are a lot of biotech firms in penny-stock land. The fortunes of these companies rest entirely on the outcomes of drug trials and/or acquisition by larger firms, which means you can see massive swings in price.
This scene from The Wolf of Wall Street should be required viewing for anyone wanting to jump headfirst into penny stocks. The modernization of trading means that commissions are drastically reduced, but the lessons here still apply. I’m not saying “don’t invest” because there are some mighty gains to be had if you do it right. I’m saying “be cautious” and certainly don’t trade on emotion. Understand that what we’re doing here is speculation, and that many stocks with penny prices are trading at penny prices for a reason. Increased volatility in the penny stocks market is going to make you feel a lot of things, but it’s important to compartmentalize this emotion and trade logically. The moment you start treating it, consciously or unconsciously, like a casino, you’ll get casino-like returns (spoiler alert, the house always wins in the end)
A few closing thoughts:
• Like another recently popular post here said, don’t be afraid to walk away for a few days to cool off.
• FOMO is the gains killer; there will always be a New Moon in terms of penny stocks.
• Pay attention to the sector you’re buying in and understand how that might influence the volatility of the stock’s price. Be especially wary of anyone trying to sell you on a “sure thing” biotech firm.
• MLFB to the moon! (Just kidding, don't rely on me to tell you what to buy) (EDIT: By Request 🚀🚀🚀)
And finally
• Do your own research! There are some legitimate DD threads on here, but you should do your own research and make sure they’re legit. Some threads here sound a lot like Jordan Belfort in the video above.
Further reading:
Wikipedia’s very long list of cognitive biases
Efficient markets hypothesis
Behavioral finance
submitted by belangrijke_muis to pennystocks [link] [comments]

True Story Time

Ok, forgive the formatting. This was originally a greentext post for all the /b/tards at 4chan. It's also a long read but if you can get past that then it is actually a quite interesting story that happened to me years ago.
be 22 active duty air force assigned to Nellis in Las Vegas not disclosing job, but no stranger to weapons and tactics get pulled in to supervisor's office one day told I've just been "voluntold" to participate in a training exercise with DOD no other information given other than reporting instructions pretty much any question I asked was answered with "I have no fucking idea " report to conference room at base hotel next morning per instruction see about 12 other guys from my unit also voluntold to be there five guys enter room in civilian clothes introduce themselves as the "WHITEBOX" Group Assume it's an acronym for something, but never explained told we will be upgrading our security clearances hours of paperwork, only told we are participating in a force on force exercise released back to our unit crack jokes about how the exercise is a lie and we will be experimented on return to regular job and time passes eventually assume that it was canceled and forget the whole thing
about 2 months later supervisor pulls me aside and tells me that I need to report to a briefing the next day says it’s about "some WHITEBOX exercise" has no idea what it is and doesn't seem to care. once again report to base hotel with the other 12 guys WHITEBOX guys show up and pick us up in a van driven off base to some random office building and escorted into the offices of the Department of Energy, WTF? mystery only deepens, what the fuck is happening? what if this actually is some evil experimental shit more hours of paperwork and security/safety briefings by random suits had to fill out and sign a non-disclosure agreement and that threatened arrest if violated required to turn in cell phones and any other electronic devices in our possession our cell phones get locked in a cabinet while the office phone in the room gets unplugged WHITEBOX guys finally return and fire up a power point briefing first slide just titled WHITBOX Exercise 0X slide also labeled in bold red letters "CLASSIFIED TOP SECRET / NOFORN / ORCON this is really starting to feel serious
WHITEBOX Exercise finally explained told that for the next two weeks we will be role playing as OPFOR (opposing forces) we will try to attack and penetrate a DOD facility and carry out a simulated act of sabotage facility is protected by a contracted privately owned security force security group is required by the DOD to carry out this exercise in order to audit their protection every couple of years if we succeed, security company fails the audit and looses the contract the exercise is the conclusion of a two week inspection of the security contractors and their procedures every exercise a random military unit is chosen as OPFOR "reminded that we are silent professionals and that this isn’t something we should be advertising shaving wavers granted and civilian attire only FUCKYEAH.jpg power point scrolls to a page with a google earth screenshot on it instantly recognize the picture it's Area 51 holyfuckingshit.exe are we are being told to break into Area 51? can't be real random unit bro pipes up out of nowhere "Is that fucking Area 51?" we are all fucking stoked later told not to call it Area 51 as that just makes you a total chode Groom Lake, Paradise Ranch, or Homey Airbase are the acceptable names many insiders simply refer to it as “The Base” also reminded of the possible legal action via UCMJ if we go around telling everyone about it One of the WHITEBOX guys is now our designated "insider threat" exercise is designed to simulate that someone inside has been comprised by a foreign government he will provide any information that we ask for that he has knowledge of or access to other WHITEBOX guys handle will handle exercise logistics they will provide any weapons or equipment that we request to carry out mission "within reason" told this is not a COD loadout screen
ground rules established... will only be provided with weapons that we are certified to carry weapons will be armed with blank rounds or completely empty also no vehicles will be utilized by us within the DOD property landmarkers simulating road chases are not authorized our insertion is simulated so we will already be escorted/processed through various checkpoints and dropped off near the base no impractical equipment requests, so no tanks, helos, surveillance drones, or scud missiles, lol any explosives we intend to simulate will be assessed by WHITEBOX so if we want to blow the perimeter fences we will tell them before hand, they will calculate the weight of the bang we would need, it would be simulated by rocks, and then someone would need to hump the weight number 1 rule established and stressed with a very serious tone we will be escorted by WHITEBOX evaluators at all times within the DOD landmarkers at no point are any of us authorized to be alone in the facility actual security is not laxed because of the exercise, nor is this a free pass to roam security personnel can still use real force in the event that we deviate from the established protocols shown various pictures within the airbase that most will never get to see a specific hangar is designated as our target building. we will need to gain access to that hangar and carry out an act of sabotage for our sabotage we will need to ///REDACTED/// obviously we won't be doing it for real so we will actually need complete a random task inside the hangar task will be designed to be as complex and time consuming as the real thing all while being hunted by the security force insider threat briefing continues, various elements of the base security procedures and day to day operations explained however, get the impression that the chosen source is someone with a generic admin position and is not actually involved with security we are also encouraged to do our own research and scour the interwebz for info about the base told to supply the URLs to WHITEBOX if we find anything of interest. sorry if we got your Alex Jones or Art Bell conspiracy blogs taken offline briefing finally concludes, we are reminded of our non-disclosure policy and taken back to Nellis and dismissed for the day
next day we all meet at Creech Air Force Base in Indian Springs, Nevada we will be using this location to build our plan of attack and do rehearsals/dry runs it's actually pretty cool because it's on us to plan our op, just a bunch of random Airmen periodically grill our insider with questions and start asking our other WHITEBOX guys for gear we tried to have our insider take pictures of the interior of our target hangar, but he got caught IRL he would be arrested and interrogated by the feds, and the whole op would be dead instead though the guys that caught him received kudos from the inspectors, and he just tells us nope have to rely on a whiteboard sketch of the inside decide to keep it simple, M4 riffles only however I am certified on the Barret M82 .50 cal. we decide that I will carry that heavy mother fucker as well as an M4 and provide overwatch from the distance kind of bummed out because im not going inside it will be on me to neutralize certain security positions that we have previous identified we remind our WHITEBOX guys that the M82 is an anti-material weapon with the ability to disable vehicles they tell us that I will just need to call my shots to the evaluator that I will be partnered with he will radio to the vehicles that they are destroyed and will need to stop driving guess I should mention that is also part of the disadvantage we have we will all be paired with WHITEBOX evaluators who will sort of act as referees during this simulated battle however they will all be wearing bright orange reflective vest identifying them as exercise officials that really fucks our ability to stay hidden and stealthy, but it is what it is also should mention that this is a daytime raid despite our objections sounds like they are setting us up for failure, but they remind us not to think of it like that this is all being done just so the evaluators can get a good look at the security's incident response procedures it's not an unannounced drill, the military doesn't really like to do that kind of thing especially with large scale exercises such as this everyone on the base know we are coming, there's no element of surprise here except with what kind of attack we prep it would be a real hot clusterfuck if the security contractors failed the audit heads would roll, people would get fired, and numerous officers would be relieved of command I still get to attack Area 51 so don't care as this is the coolest thing I've done in the military
our plan is starting to come together over the days decide to sacrifice one of us in a suicide bomb attack figure out which of us is the most "FNG" or lowest ranking and make him do it he will approach one of the ECPs (entry points to the base) on foot wearing a rucksack loaded with rocks (make-believe explosives) he will be wearing a uniform and will identify himself as Air Force and will franticly yell that he needs help we don't anticipate that he will make it that far or that the security will actually swallow this ruse however his goal is to get as close as he can to the ECP and yell allah ackbar and release his dead man's switch and try to take out what he can his evaluatoescort will drop a GBS (ground burst simulator) when he detonates GBS is a little miniature explosive device that just makes a really loud boom anyone who’s been through any type of military training is familiar with them, they are used to add stress and create excitement we are hoping this will be a distraction and will get as much security as possible to converge on that location the rest of us will assault from the other side of the base and try to breach the perimeter several of us will also be rucking explosive rocks for the breach chose a breach point that will have us crossing only a minimal portion of the flightline (place where aircraft operate) if we successfully simulate breaching the perimeter the exercise will be paused and we will be inprocessed through the ECP and brought into the base exercise will resume and we will continue to assault towards the target hangar I will stay outside in my sniper position and try to smoke what I can inside the hangar the team will cover the doors with simulated claymores and take up cover two guys will carry out the simulated sabotage act while the rest cover the doors WHITEBOX doesn't have any inert claymores to provide so the will be simulated with small weighted ammo cans the weight is really starting to become problematic so we abandon the claymores and decide to just cover the doors with firepower would really help if we had a vehicle, but not happening to be fair, vehicles wouldn't make it that close to the base if they tried to attack IRL armored or not
week one down, plan looking solid considering how much of our attack is simulated two weeks of planning is actually excessive not complaining though cause two weeks of hanging out and smoking and joking compared to normal work at Nellis only downside is the hour drive back and forth each day to Creech AFB casino right outside that base with awesome steak and eggs so not too bad though one of the WHITEBOX guys tells us he's actually employed by the Department of Energy he doesn't actually work at Groom Lake, he works at the Nevada Test Range the massive amount of Nevada landscape that is restricted and owned by the feds is actually impressive contrary to popular myth there is road access to Groom Lake via the adjacent test range, but not too many people actually make that drive. the 737 shuttle from McCarran Airport is how everyone gets there since the drive is long as fuck the main paved road through Rachel Nevada that all the tourist flock to doesn't really have any operational use anymore allegedly we will be driving there through the test range via a convoluted series of paved and dirt roads route is CLASSIFIED TOP SECRET, not kidding
DOE dude gives us a tour of the test range one day load cases of water in back of van drive to Mercury Nevada and stop at checkpoint inprocessed inside, get pictures taken and issued escorted visitor passes also required to wear radiation badges once inside get to see all that shit from The Hills Have Eyes, fake towns that were blown up with atomic bombs not as intact as they are portrayed in films though, they are pretty rekt or deconstructed show us a massive crater called the Sedan Crater in the 50's they experimented with using atomic bombs for mass excavation projects hoping they could just nuke the ground and build shit instead of fucking around with bulldozers pretty stupid and impractical but they didn't know any better back then they buried an atomic bomb a half a mile underground and blew it up Sedan Crater left behind as a result and the fucking thing is huge. they allegedly herded cattle down to the bottom of the crater afterwards to test the post fallout effects pretty fuckin savage, and it was actually stunning to look at two hour drive to Groom Lake though endless desert roads now see why we loaded the water, we’d be pretty fucked if the van broke down or got stuck get first distant look at the base without having to enter their checkpoints holyshit.mp4 very few people get to actually see what we are seeing to be honest though, looks like any other air force base I've ever seen except smaller besides the obvious fact that it is in the middle of bum fuck nowhere and its main runway is long as fuck also realize one of the reasons they didn't want us operating vehicles most roads are dirt and the entire lake bed is surrounded by "moon dust" everywhere moon dust is the ultra-fine sand found in certain parts of the desert with the consistency of flour it's also a total bitch to drive in and the security patrols getting stuck is a somewhat frequent occurrence told that they even have some of the AAFES fast food joints there that you find on any other base imagine working at a Burger King that you need a Top Secret security clearance for, how the fuck does that work??? noticed that despite being authorized to be here, we are still being watched by distant security patrols wonder if they know we are the bad guys that are going to be attacking the joint make some minor adjustments to the plan since the google earth pictures lack some detail conclude tour and take the 3 to 4 hour drive back home, most of us slept in the van
arrive at Creech next day and see that more WHITEBOX guys have been added to the mix, now there's like 20 of them for the past two weeks they have been inspecting the security contractors and its procedures you can tell a lot of them are ex-military based off of language and the people that are dipping and spiting in empty water bottles the mood is light, all of the exercise planning is finished, nothing to do the last two days we managed to borrow an empty hangar at Creech and used it as a mockup of our target hangar to run rehearsals no longer asking our insider questions about security, instead start asking completely ridiculous questions about conspiracies for lulz accuse some of them of being reptilians to see how they react, some of them get legit uncomfortable before you go sounding off, doubt they are hiding anything, some folks just don’t get military humor one does, however, and shows us a velcro patch that he wears on his rucksack it's one of those standard patches you spot on a pilot’s flight suit that has the name, rank, branch, and blood type his blood type seriously says reptilian it's obvious that they embrace and poke fun at the reputation this base has, in fact they thrive off of it
the day finally fucking arrives, time to attack this bitch wake up at 0400 and drive an hour to Creech dressed to kill decide to wear DCU "desert combat uniform" pants and a sand t shirt with my personally owned Blackhawk tactical vest to carry spare M4 mags sometimes the military issues some real shitty gear so our unit is somewhat lax and allows us to personally buy our own better equipment if it has command approved use and doesn't break SOPs also wear my empty gas mask pouch attached to my hip and use it to carry spare M82 .50 cal mags also wear a black turban for lulz that I bought off an ANA (Afghani Northern Alliance) dude downrange used to have a guile suite but it got lost on a deployment so that's a no go unfortunately arm up with an M4 with M68 red dot sight and attach a BFA "blank firing adapter" to the muzzle, and load six mags of .556 blanks also provided with my trusty Barret .50 M82 and five mags there is no BFA for the Barret that I'm familiar with so carry that with empty mags, guess I get to cheat with the weight load up in the vans with WHITEBOX team and drive another hour to Mercury get inprosscessed through security checkpoint and receive visitor badges for the test range drive another 2 hour on random roads passing more checkpoints /// REDACTED /// forced to surrender cell phones, personally owned electronic devices and CAC cards (military ID cards) again receive our escorted visitor passes for Groom Lake and now continue down some of the most forbidden roads in American history start unloading as close to our start point as the terrain allows and hump the rest of the distance on foot with our escorts suicide attack bro hangs back in the van with other escorts and is driven to his start point the terrain is favorable and allows us to set up out of sight hence why we chose the spot I break off and try to set up my nest at my chosen OP "observation point" as discreetly as possible not really stealthy cause I'm being followed by a guy wearing an orange reflective vest that says STAN EVAL and he's just casually walking he tells me to set up the Barret, but just simulate your shots by firing the M4 blanks now in a spot where I can observe base activity and provide cover fire for the breach, but I am also the most easy to spot sniper ever now wait for confirmation that our distraction on the other side has happened, taking a real long fucking time
my escort's radio chimes to life and starts talking "attention all WHITEBOX, we now have proper authentication via CASTLE ROCK for initiation of a detachment level exercise" voice on radio proceeds to spit out a long winded exercise safety briefing realize it's been about 40 minutes and we are just now fucking starting another 10 minutes and finally get word that suicide bro is approaching his target escorts all inform us that the security force is responding to reports of an explosion outside of the ECP later find out that suicide bro was stopped and challenged at gun point about 50 meters outside of ECP by a mounted patrol he then just fuck it and started sprinting towards the ECP until they opened fire with blanks and his escort set off the GBS he actually managed to take out the vehicle that stopped him and create several casualties (we gave him the heaviest explosive rocks loadout) overall our distraction was pretty fucking successful give it a another minute or two and finally start shooting and calling my shots to my escort/evaluator he's talking on his radio and relaying my simulated violence, "inform Merc-17 that they are dead from sniper fire" etc... I have predetermined targets to engage based off of what poses the biggest threat to the breach team I actually do some damage and get confirmation of casualties from my escort it's about a 600 meter run to the base perimeter in the open desert so it's on me to try and clear their path as much as I can the plan is to try to lure some security vehicles to our position then eliminate them with the Barret while they are en route the dead vehicles can then serve as points of cover for the breach team as they assault towards the base breach team was also aiming to see if they could snag any security radios from the dead patrols so we can monitor their comms didn't really work out that way however, in the end we simply didn't have all the info about the anticipated security response without giving away too many sensitive details, we all got ambushed by the security from unexpected locations forced to abandon my nest and the Barret to start moving towards another location to back up the breach team that was under fire trade some shots with security until my escort finally announces "ok dude, you're dead. go ahead and lay down" that's it, game over
play dead for about 20 minutes while security cleans up the area breach team gets rekt, we managed to get within 100 meters of the perimeter couple of security dudes approach me and perform a dead combatant body search on me it's a specific type of search designed to search a dead body while also checking for possible explosive booby traps pretend to be dead and let security dudes run my pockets finally one of the evaluators shouts "PauseEx" (pause exercise) we got fucking annihilated, no chance this attack was going to be successful our evaluators tell us that everyone did a great job, HOWEVER.... we are going to continue the exercise because they didn't get the chance to observe much of the internal security components we are going to resume the exercise assuming that we were actually able to get inside that target hangar this will give the evaluators the opportunity to observe the security's recap and recov procedures (re-capture and recovery) we all get magically resurrected from the dead I realize that I am actually going inside Groom Lake! Fucking Awesome...
spend about 15 minutes policing up the area for brass which means wandering around and picking up spent cartridges board vans and get driven around to ECP. realize that only half of the security force is playing in this exercise the rest are still armed with live weapons and are still performing regular protection duties forced to show our visitor passes, names and badge numbers are compared against a master list that the security has /// REDACTED /// /// REDACTED /// notice a homemade sign hanging on the wall at the security center it’s got a picture of an alien with a red X through it that says "no extraterrestrial entities or relics beyond this point" like I said earlier, everyone enjoys the reputation this base has drive to our target hangar, holy fuck! I am now inside Area 51 use of blanks not authorized indoors, everyone is told to clear out weapons rest of the exercise will use simulated firing, the equivalent of pointing your empty weapon at someone and yelling bang sadly not the first time I trained like this, military does it all the time it’s ridiculous and awkward every time, looks like a bunch of kids playing backyard soldiers with sticks security has already reset its posture, they know we are attacking but doesn't know the building we are hitting we all enter the hangar, get the impression that it doesn't actually get used IRL anymore reeks of mildew and no power inside, dust everywhere in the center there is a pickup truck covered with a tarp and roped off with red rope and stanchions, signs posted identifying it as a controlled area told that this is a simulated military asset and this is what we are sabotaging WHITEBOX evaluator pulls a box out of the bed of the truck remember when I said we will have to do a complex and time consuming task to simulate our act of sabotage? it’s a fucking Star Wars Lego kit! I shit you not! evaluators tell us we will need start building it and reach page 12 in the instructions without errors or mistakes kind of wish we went with our earlier plan and brought claymores cause I spotted some sweet chokepoints outside the building to set them up also wish we had the idea of bringing padlocks and chains so we could lock down the hangar and make life more difficult for the security force set up our spots to cover the doors, we are well versed with building clearing tactics so we know what spots to cover to make it hard
WHITEBOX evaluator authenticates over the radio with someone by passing letters and numbers back and forth, process known as sign/countersign voice on radio announces that the detachment level WHITEBOX exercise has resumed showtime! Two unit bros start opening the Lego kit and sorting parts me and the suicide bro weren't supposed to be in this hangar or even on the base to begin with so we don't have points to cover inside come up with idea and ask one of the escorts if we can go out the back on to the flightline plan to walk to two separate buildings in opposite directions and see if we can create distractions evaluators approve the plan, but tell us we can't approach or enter other buildings, nor approach any parked aircraft decide to leave firearms and my tac vest behind for clever reasons if we are unarmed the security will most likely apprehend us, and search us this is more time consuming than just shooting us and will keep them away from the hangar longer exit the back of the hangar on to the flightline and just start casually walking down the tarmac with my escort eventually hear the sound of police sirens in the distance getting louder, hear they come! get the urge to start sprinting but decide not to since it would most likely result in me being tackled on the pavement, fuck that later realize distant sirens are actually responding to hangar after reports of a silent alarm being received so much for the distraction plan
decide not to return to hangar since there is not much I can do unarmed, and continue walking down flightline all the parked aircraft I see are just normal military aircraft, although some do seem to have “enhancements” or cosmetic features that I haven’t seen before ask my escort where they keep all the flying saucers, he smirks and just replies "underground" wonder if there are actually any subterranean levels to this base, suppose a lot of these buildings could support that ask my escort if there are really underground levels, he facetiously says “who knows” white pickup truck with police lights approaching fast pretend not to notice and keep walking voice starts barking at me over a loudspeaker "stop right there! do not move! get your hands up! security mercs climbing out of vehicle with rifles drawn, don't see magazines in the riffles, they are part of the drill they actually try to challenge both of us, escort has to remind them that he is out of play security goons bark at me, "face away from me NOW! keep your hands up!" they are actually pretty intimidating, I comply proceed to have me lay on the ground face down with my arms and legs stretched out yell at me to put my hands in the small of my back, palms together, fingers up big black guy approaches me and actually puts his knee on my neck George Floyd style "don't fight me, don't resist me, or you are gonna get hurt" he says puts me in zip ties and picks me up, see other guards still have weapons drawn on me overall whole thing similar to a gangbanger getting rolled up by the cops black guy puts me in some weird and uncomfortable arm hold tells me to start walking while he steers my body with the arm hold and walks me off the flightline taken to a grassy area, get put back on the ground and searched and questioned /// REDACTED /// I try to bluff and say that the hangar will blow if anyone goes inside, see if that stalls them he tries to question me about it, but I can tell he’s not biting, I decide to tone it down and stay quiet cause the dude really looks like he’s going to fuck me up actually overhear his partner talking on the radio, he’s telling others to exercise caution and beware of possible explosive booby traps lights out, realize that someone put a bag over my head evaluator calls out "EndEX" (end exercise) all portions of the exercise are terminated, it's all over
black security guy cuts my zip ties, takes off the hood and sets me loose later find out that security retook the hangar with no problems my guys inside struggled with the Legos since it was so dark and hard to see instead of immediately going in, security tossed inert CS gas canisters inside none of us brought gas mask since it was something our insider failed to mention evaluator let us build legos for another 30 seconds then yelled “GAS, GAS, GAS” unit bros in the hangar were told to lay on the ground and pretend to be incapacitated security swarmed the place with gas mask and guns, kicked away weapons they got a similar treatment to what I received on the flightline and got hauled out of there we all regroup at the base's main visitor center for the AAR (after action review) overall security responded quite well, only some points were critiqued, nothing failing smoke cigarettes and crack jokes back and forth with the security dudes, finally get to see the human side of the guy who snagged me on the flightline tell him he’s one scary mofo, he smiles and we shake hands security dudes leave, head to base theater for full debrief WHITEBOX guys thank us for our participation, time to head home wait a sec, let’s see some fucking aliens WHITEBOX guy smirks and says he’ll give us the dollar tour another day drive back to Mercury knowing full well that we are not going to hear back from them, especially about a tour return radiation badges to the Mercury office told that if we never hear back from them that it’s a good sign told that if they do call us then our Tricare (military health coverage) will get put to good use whole experience was cool as fuck one of the evaluators hands out business cards for ///REDACTED/// and tells us to look them up when we separate from the military starting pay for the security force is pretty fucking dope and only certain military backgrounds are considered for it return to Indian Springs and hit up the casino for drinks with the original 5 WHITEBOX guys ask if any of the prior OPFOR units actually pulled it off and broke in told that a group of CCT guys from the 24th STS was the closest anyone’s ever gotten but even they still failed makes sense, I’ve heard that those dudes are legit operators tell war stories and get drunk actually receive a letter of appreciation from the Air Force Test Center Detachment 3 from Edwards Air Force Base, California about a month later it thanks me for my participation in an exercise but makes no mention of Groom Lake my participation in a vaguely worded “DOD exercise” actually gets mentioned as a bullet in my annual performance report mfw I attacked Area 51
tldr - me and my coworkers "broke" into Area 51 with automatic weapons so we could put together an X-wing starfighter out of Legos
Thanks for reading. I should mention that I have intentionally withheld a lot of details and even altered a few. I'm not trying to blow up anyone’s spot and compromise shit. Just wanted to share a true story about some cool shit I got to do in my youth. For example WHITEBOX is a completely fabricated name while the whole operation actually went under another random weird name. It still ranks as some of the most cloak and dagger shit I got to do in the military. I actually don’t really tell too many people because it is no one’s business and no one would believe me anyways. I finally figured that enough time has passed and like I said, I have specially tailored this story to avoid leaking any sensitive shit. Overall the base was actually kind of underwhelming. I didn’t really see any earth shattering secrets there. All of the alien and reptilian conspiracy theories were openly mocked and made fun of there. It’s really just a base that gets an extra layer of discreetness and physical security for more sensitive assets and projects to be kept there. The CIA, JSOC and other intel gangs from Washington even have offices out there because it’s just a quiet tucked away place to do business. I will say that their security is no joke and that they have some truly fascinating techniques to detect and deny intruders. Hope you enjoyed.
submitted by mindst0rm30 to conspiracy [link] [comments]

Konfidential KUWTK Producer Secrets: Season 19, Episode 5 - "Sister, Sister and a Babymoon"

Hello my fellow poor people! Welcome to this week's “Malikas Kards Konfidential," inside production details/family notes from KUWTK’s last episode, “Sister, Sister and a Babymoon”
Needing 2 weeks of multiple health screens after watching this Malika-filled episode, producers surprised us with a trip to Morongo where we could pretend that we really care about the Malikas just for a brief moment in time. They gambled, put their own health at risk, discussed the horrors of giving birth to a person that’s about to pop, and honestly, nothing more. I realize that for most people, this episode is something so far out of reach from the normal Kardashian realm, so in moments like these, I am humbly reminded why this show is coming to an end. #ThisIsTorture
Our A-plot is Khloe taking Malika on a babymoon, something that is apparently a very real thing, and our B-plot was Corey v. Kendall. Let’s dive in before we're all haunted by Robert Kardashian's hologram!
Cold Open/Scene 1: Kourtney and Kim discuss Kendall/Kylie fight
Scene 2: Kim and Khloe talk about the fight while Kourtney sits in the corner and says nothing
Scene 3: Kim, Khloe and Scott talk about the fight + Malika's babymoon
Scenes 4/5: Malika sits through labor horror stories during her baby moon lunch + en route to Malika's favorite spot in the world, Morongo
Scene 6: Kylie breaks away from STASSSIE BABBBYYY to fulfill her contractual obligations by participating in a scene w/Kris at her office
Scene 7: Khloe, Khadijah and the other girl day players celebrate Malika in their Morongo suites
Scene 8: A future boring plot is SAVED by Corey reading Kendall for the "asshole" that she really is
Scenes 9/10: Malika celebrates International Women's Day by telling the world she don't give a flying FUCK about her baby daddy's business + Khloe, Malika and their day players risk their health by playing in the casino amid a pandemic
Scene 11: This trip seems to never end as Khloe, Malika and their day players head to dinner
Scene 12: This episode still drags on as Malika gives her baby a real kick by drinking caffeine
Scene 13: Corey and Kris talk about the phone call w/Kendall
Scene 14: Khloe, masked up, is graced by a visit from Kris... who is shook by the new mask culture
Scene 15: Kendall shoots her Architectural Digest cover
submitted by LinusRanger13 to KUWTK [link] [comments]

9uVDg_jg_jA

the cosmopolitan six thousand five hundred dollar bank the bonus live play tonight last night you guys wanted some mighty cash i found you a mighty cash double up look at those numbers that we're working with same format last night we do 500 tickets however some of my tickets are a thousand bucks they're just easier that way so i'll have to do some uh thinking and uh math but i get kerry here to help me out and i got all my lovely and fans so ticket starts at a thousand dollars so we're not gonna go below 500 guys so this one should be pretty easy max volume bank the bonus live play 13.50 a spin [Music] mighty cash double up let's see this haywire five or more for the bonus [Music] mr classic tv says punky power thank you mr classic tv oh yeah mr classic tv i think you won one of those blenders or um mixers but i need to get your address so send me an email or message me on facebook so i know jimmy d won the other mixer but i'm pretty sure you are the other winner so i want to get that sent out to you yes haywire we got something big oh 45 bucks good ones big one oh i couldn't drop like the maxi because it doubles up [Music] wait there we go [Music] and carrie we trust so we're gonna have him hit the button all right gary [Music] wow that's huge let's keep getting these red ones yes this is not bad red [Music] that wasn't a good spin but if your first two are pretty solid so i forgive you [Music] yolanda rory love you bry mighty cash is the best i love you too yolanda hopefully it will come to new york here soon yeah this is a decent oh yolanda which one do i pick yolanda's picking guys left right middle if yolanda's in here we'll give her a first chance to pick one two or three your left middle right yolanda i'm gonna wait for her i am i'm in plenty of time [Music] i'm a no hurry this is a nice little bonus yolanda gets to pick [Music] leland assistant too all right here it is shoot that's fine all right let's do it anything filled up down there okay extra 13.50 [Music] yes too bad we couldn't fill that up this is not a bad little hit i'll do some ticket math later on because uh i had a thousand dollar ticket but a good start yesterday we started off great and then it went south and if smaller bets work we'll do smaller bets but i am getting some revenge on that 25 cash code it's a jackpot to start the night what do you know [Music] yolanda has no reason to be sorry how's the picture quality everybody we have one person keep saying bad picture but everybody else says [Music] [Music] nothing [Music] all right let me see if i can uh [Music] all right [Music] all right is that good now how does that look perfect all right couple backup spins come on please please please [Music] backup spins galore i saw it go by too all right two thousand dollars will be the ending point [Music] all right first game get a win nice start all right so this ticket guys oh cougar girls 9.99 super justice happy new year all right i reset it i don't know what else to do so i did reset the wi-fi i mean the picture i am at mercy of the casino and romeo evan welcome to the bod rubber ducky club all right guys since um the same ticket so five hundred dollars again i've got these thousand dollar tickets i have to use them twice so the floor is going to be 1500 all right all right 17 16 a spin [Music] that's huge 300 that's good [Music] [Applause] yep i i work with what i have so [Music] maybe it'll get better but i did reset it twice after that i can't do much i apologize but i'm working with what they have but thank you to 800 people watching one more [Music] open this pot 24. [Music] 40 bucks [Music] yes scott i just re-logged into wi-fi for the third time i did reset it and i reset it again so [Applause] [Music] all right before the bonus i'll see if i can fix the wi-fi whoops 73. if you're winning with that well i find it just keep it that way give me one second guys this is my best four games [Music] which one do you guys look all right which one should i pick i've never done this thank you raja what do you guys want [Music] miss mary brian thank you for the live play i really activity oh thank you miss mary [Music] coins [Music] all right coins all coins come on yes oh we're going to do something on the left [Music] chris had patches behind me for me hey one more time i logged out i forgot the network and i logged back in [Music] guys not much i can do guys so the i'm doing the best i can but tell me it's blurry and tell me it's unwatchable and you're gonna unsubscribe above and beyond because i don't control the wi-fi you're gonna unsubscribe from my channel uh i'm not trying to be negative here but don't say crap like that that's just not cool all right guys i'm doing the best i can to give you guys some bonus live play and kyle sell data does not work at all in vegas anyways we got a bonus 776 dollars all right there's some backup spans the floor we'll get 2800 2750 2800 we'll see how it goes and we'll do the top up if we hit it [Music] all right so 27.50 is gonna be the floor so the first thousand in we're gonna have at least 27.50 so that's a great start tonight the pot is a little over 6500 but that's what the tickets i had available was they're gonna make that work but thank you all for tuning in thank you for you know the watching the earlier live play and we got a super chat herbert d brian you're doing fine ignore the complaint all right one more spin and we're gonna cash out so far it's a good little start [Music] all right let's move what do you guys want to see next is my lucky players card [Music] so [Music] those are not multi-dino [Music] yep how you doing yeah i hope so i reset it again it's still really bad i i re-logged in crushing it you hit reconnect i hit reconnect yeah it's still brilliant now all right we're back live all right thank you all right guys garager just help me out it's great usually for a little bit and then it kind of sputters out all right guys how about some konami konami time [Music] [Music] it can go to a hotel you go to hotel next all right and play konami games radiant witch 15 to spin so the floor on this game is gonna be 500. because it's a thousand dollar ticket let's do it guys but thank you all for tuning in hey brian i got a super chat for you one dollar lucky super chat from jose all right usually the usually for a super chat has to be at least 1.99 or higher to say anything doesn't want it we'll try one this is going in the community pot there we go so now you're in action you have a point one tenth of a percentage all right taxi 10 000. yeah we need to go to the other one all right we're gonna try the hotel one all right we're gonna try one more wi-fi guys i apologize all right all right last try guys after this we're just gonna wing it but waffs 73 in bod we trust thank you wasps genomes just keep crushing it all right guys if i missed a super chat then i did do my best doing my best all right here we go it's an iphone 12 pro mac so it should the phone's not the issue here oh i think it was one away from that symbol nice you love silver lucky 25 super super chat flip phone it's a motorola gopro i have no idea come on three or more bonus symbols may trigger the money galaxy feature oh you're not like that okay [Music] we switched the wi-fi network so hopefully guys hopefully this helps it's holding up so we'll take it at this point jose ah i tried [Music] guys it has nothing to do with the camera on the phone it's the wifi [Music] chris pat you're doing great brian of data oh that's my new name brian of data 9150 so i heard you made a killing in the stock market today had a good day you guys haven't checked out raja makes money the mods have been actually posting the link so thank you mod for doing that come on kanami give me some heck yeah [Music] gosh you guys i might have to cancel live play early tonight if i have to keep modding for myself [Music] come on it's due [Music] uh now i get that radiant witch symbol when i don't need it yep once again [Music] well i would go play it and that's that's it that's the 500 mark so [Music] all right let's keep moving on guys [Music] now um somebody specifically told me i should go play high stakes [Music] you know what maybe he'll do some video poker since carrie's here tonight how would you guys want to see some ultimate at the video poker i think that could be fun 1250 spin max that volume out yay or nay on video poker oops stephen hall he requested this game tonight so he got it apple alert for guys tonight 5 30 ah so close 5 30 pacific time you know what i did really good on last night was uh one more that uh i hit those two nice jackpots on uh also environment really i haven't if we went at one more and open up the taco that is like another four i never have like an ultimate fire like played it again last night but the last couple ever since i started playing that another one ultra hot megalink i didn't go to those now they've done these whole shows okay i never liked it because i never got the bonus but now we've got all these great bonuses they're gonna take 5 30 guys the big jackpot will be live on the main facebook page with youtube live play to follow at six o'clock pacific time [Music] yes we got a bonus see what happens when i push the button all right big one here we go carrie go ahead and hit the button carrie terry first lucky raja high rollers i had to mix it up it didn't work for me yesterday all right raja your turn your turn nah all right jose hit the button [Music] okay there we go that's 125 for jose tracy says i feel bbb coming for b.o.d well we believe in b.o.d everybody hit the thumbs up jose you're on the roll ready another 125. you're fired i'm fired i'll come in and save the day all right come on all right you're in all right here we go there you go that's all you guys are worth 25. oh this is 50 cents it's 12 minutes all right carrie you're back in it come on 62.50 jose tagging you back in you're hired again come on that's this is a brd spin oh okay there it is all right same as the raja come on nature just drop it oh really i carry you're back in [Music] all right jose we'll worry about the price of the grand if we come to that all right it comes down to body [Applause] that's something 362. [Music] it is but yours is a lot tighter mine's maybe the spring's gone or something [Applause] [Music] all right backup spins we'll play it down to what 500. how does that sound that sounds great thank you one more sorry he's live right now [Music] ma'am it's 45 dollars i'm sorry that's my gunnery jose my agent told me that all right big congratulations to the quick father he's not going to be with us tonight and right when we got done playing about one o'clock last night went to the room get a good night's sleep at three o'clock he sent me a message he had to get an uber for a five-hour drive back to california he missed his baby being born that's why we picked this date early in the month because baby was due on the 18th so we're like okay two weeks plenty of time you know get home and yeah out of nowhere last night all right guys what do you think we should play next all right autumn moon let's do it ah guys i do not really charge 45 dollars a photo you guys can believe whatever you want this one's due i'm into this game for at least a thousand bucks i get this one two oh the better match yeah no no but this one yesterday all right here we go twenty dollars to spend fifty four hundred dollar major hundred and three thousand dollar grand this is slower than like that first [Music] so the floor is 500 on this game unless we decide to play a second round on it so thousand dollar ticket in the floor come on what whoa no oh i thought you had it oh wow how did you screw that up very easily oh i thought i had it thousands left what happened to that 20 orb what happened to that 20 dollar orb tracy if jose twerks upside down like naomi there will be mega booms wow you've been requesting the twerk upside down [Music] diane mccall says whatever rajo says about you after i fell for the malaria hoax [Laughter] so diane mccall says she doesn't believe anything you say about me after she fell for the malaria hoax when you told everybody i had malaria b.o.d uh brandon true b.o.d ah what what grand did you hit the other day when the raja was live it's probably the same as me having malaria whatever that's worth [Music] it's no minor finally [Music] the good news is i don't have malaria currently but the question is are you going to fall asleep 2 000. i knew this game was due ah yeah come on keeping it alive [Music] now i pumped well over a thousand bucks in this game last night [Music] plus in the group paul we didn't do too well either [Music] [Applause] thousand right [Music] oh here it comes 103 000 live let me at least see it i did not see it i got my glasses on and i don't see it again the drama it's left-handed does it work nope i need to mix it up is that what you do in the bedroom people got jokes today come on [Music] hopefully we keep playing well i can pay off my markers it'll be nice [Music] that's something is that tick-tock tick-tock well i only have one phone unlike some people wow you guys both have one phone wait we got so many girls and tracy d if you don't mind sending me a photos later on of all the jackpots thank you all right so the floor is gonna be three thousand bucks one more moon there's still good line hit john johnson boom boom boom in bod's room that's right [Music] yeah this machine was definitely due after i mean carrie watched me struggle on this game last night i mean struggle one more i knew this game had to do a comeback hi there how you doing today good how are you i'm doing well you can't do recording what did this gentleman tell you i'm spitting fake news again i'm gonna have to call security on you that wouldn't be the first time yeah they called him last time when he had those prostitutes you grabbed his hands on his feet caesar's palace was not a good day remember caesar's palace and that lady i was tracy says i'm waiting jose you got this bee all right cash it out so this yeah so yeah this was a new this was a fresh ticket jimmy beauty on ajita keep it up i got your hoodie in my room during his live play i'll get it for you all right cash cove 25 a spin so the floor is just under 2 500. purple and gold saw it's nice wind keep it up i'm going to purple gold and i got jimmy d there you go all right all right so the floor is like 2 400 and change what doesn't want my ticket i did this yesterday too gaming machine unable to redeem at this time that was weird and it took it cash go 25 to spend cash cove just under 2 400 sorry just under 2 500. come on make up make up for you so 24 in change [Music] 100 dollars get it oh but thank you to all the mods help out thank you to kerry all aboard or luxury line tiffany j beauty great live stream can you play some cats all right we'll do cats after this [Music] no thank you nope i'm doing well not drinking anything so i'm gonna hold off as long as we keep winning i will not have a sip of water the entire livestream i am very superstitious [Music] what did he get nice jose is on ajita as tracy d would say this ticket will be put in the bank after this machine is over that's a great observation [Music] [Music] doesn't want me to quit this game i guess no okay there you go all right couple more spins not gonna go below 2400 come on come on all right final spin on this game cash an hour all right all right so that i think it's done all right we're gonna put another thousand dollar ticket in so once again the floor is gonna be um 500 bucks i didn't have to didn't have time to break down the tickets cats here it is somebody wanted cats to send a super chat and i haven't done cats in a while so [Music] 15 to spin [Music] yes that's it i thought it looked it looked a lot better in my mind sometimes the lower bets work better that's a pay line on 15. oh fine don't have to convince me it looks like if i'm a game manufacturer i'm making 15 lines that's not one of mine [Music] yeah of all the games being different heights different angles it's not always the easiest sometimes to uh that's it fifteen all right 30 that's fine 30 bucks on cats ah 200 nice [Music] come on bank the bonus that's good huh 400. nice [Music] that's right johnny milwaukee loves all the games that have cats in it kitty glitter miss kitty [Music] bonus [Music] [Music] what do you think should i play 45 a spin on catch or keep it here at 30. 500 is the floor we're going for that bonus oh yeah 250. i'll tell you what we'll do actually choose the max you can only play 30 bucks so by default oh bonus nope no nope gina anyway can you play black widow uh maybe you'll do some black widow i'll tell you what since we're doing well in the game we'll i don't want to lose any money on this game so we'll set the floor in a thousand bucks so we guarantee we don't lose any money playing cats [Music] i hate to do well in the machine and go broke trying to hit the bonus so [Music] come on okay 200 just for that [Music] and if we break the two 2000 mark maybe he'll set a floor above that come on full screen say meow i likey [Music] so if the raja ever tells you something about me 95 of the time it's not true he said you were an awesome individual b.o.d yep see told you now he knows better than joke about my dogs so oh yeah that's like the one thing he knows so if he says something about my dogs that may be true but besides that i never had malaria [Music] what's not a pay line but this jagged thing is that's bs hey ben hello [Music] don't get called on me kitty cats [Music] all right um is black widow on here all right this game's getting cold i'm going to use this extra 186 dollars for black widow so the forum black widow's still going to be 500. i so whatever that's worth executive vod decision [Music] forty dollars to spend on black widow [Music] the floor is at 500 on the game he's taking some of that extra money [Music] all right a black widow floor is five hundred dollars oh there's yep i that's a lot of people say i look like the purple guy in black widow they're the pink guy does that look like b.o.d what do you guys think i think it is they modeled it after me maybe that's right the raja this is his favorite game because he gets to see me all the time [Music] wow cheryl clark blackwidow be nice to b.o.d thank you we don't think we had a single playback of anything on black widow yet [Music] not a single does black widow hate b.o.d looks like ben affleck oh there we go on the last spin it pays 160 says don't quit on me [Music] ah mark wahlberg all right final spin and we're putting this ticket in the bank for cats and black widow so cats and black widow is done now i did play some um dancing drums earlier today and i got killed 2 000 down on dancing drums so based on that it's dancing drums revenge [Music] time [Music] yeah i saw my afternoon live play we did play some dancing drums so what do i got left 500 500 500 000 so 6500 in tickets i have 2500 left let's just make it easy to put a 500 ticket here so once again guys i had to get some thousand dollar tickets i couldn't get the 500 so that's why we used some tickets twice 1760 a bet and we're going for three if we get it we're going for three the last three games we haven't done anything so we're due for another bonus here jimbo come on drums let's see a bonus i agree timbo so the mini's at 178 miners 626 that seems awfully high you son of a yeah majors at 9 000 yeah we're going for three because that's what i said all right here we go all right big money there we go that's it [Music] yes oh one more dragon that helped 120 yeah 360. [Music] all right 660 dollar bonus [Music] all right we're gonna play some more uh like 750 floor on this game we need some backup spins let's get another bonus [Music] you know screw it we'll do the mystery if we get it again that sounds fine with me mystery if we get another bonus i just hit five drums [Music] all right final spin unless we hit something um [Music] all right whoops says uh [Music] top dollar let's do it [Music] a lot of people like the double top dollar [Music] yeah 210 dollars to spend sorry 10 dollars a credit 20 [Music] we've been doing better on the lower d knobs right now so [Music] she says always double she's an expert so yeah 10's on there i'm putting a thousand dollar ticket in so the floor will be 500. [Music] so it's 20 dollars yes we did some higher spins earlier going backwards still good slide play [Music] carla howard says good luck tonight hashtag bonus time hope you're staying warm up there [Music] carla [Music] oh [Music] [Music] is my card working all right let's see this top dollar logo [Music] so close there we go [Music] almost 2 000 people watching thank you guys for tuning in tonight make the bonus live play from the cosmopolitan las vegas hit that subscribe button keep notifications on because sometimes i do surprise live play like this morning last spin [Music] and i did some like hundred dollar huffing puff this morning all right let's move on to some pinball [Music] two credit pinball we'll do 20 to spin on this too yes we'll do the video poker [Music] let's set pinball yeah uh these old school pinballs you can't see them anymore you don't find them much all the casinos that have them do not get rid of them looks like the new pinball they have it's a little different format 20 to spin so with a three credit pinball you get five shots with two credit pinball you get four [Music] that was 250 okay give this some more ammo to hit this pinball come on come on [Music] ah so close we have 1500 left after this the big jackpot will be live at 5 30 pacific time so [Music] and maybe i'll do some surprise late night live play tonight you never know that's why you have to subscribe and click those notifications on if i do like it yeah yeah it's something i was waiting for like yeah eight grand i'm like my like time just kind of stopped okay for me i'm like is it gonna happen [Music] it is what time what time is it carrie right now i think about five o'clock or so so it's 4 45 yes there we go uh i think i'm gonna keep the ten dollar genome it's working i hate to blow through everything on the twenty five dollar d numb we ain't broke i rather win a little bit of money on a smaller bet than lose more money on a larger bet [Music] yeah maybe some we'll see late no promises i did a surprise live play this afternoon [Music] and it's not a surprise if i tell you happy new year b.o.d and good luck well thank you sonny happy new year to you come on pinball get a couple decent line hips golden nugget that's a casino we're at the cosmopolitan is there a game called golden nugget oh yeah [Music] what was your biggest hit um nice on 15 bets yeah can't beat that [Music] i know where a wild wild nugget is but um some guy last night kept saying wild wild nugget the whole time and it really gave me bad juju and we lost so no wild wild nugget tonight i'm not a fan of that game anyways but we got a come on bonus 80. okay 250 it's a good start come on 80 80 no 500 bucks come on 80 80. [Music] [Applause] all right we're at 8 40. like 7 60 something like that get it five back upstairs legit whoops taught me so my final spin okay cash now [Music] 1500 left [Music] carrie and i gonna play some video poker for five thirty dollars to spin ultimate x video poker scary carry and body now beauty is gonna make the best choices oh thank you for that i'll do the best i can i got carrie here so we'll [Music] oh i didn't sorry i was um live when you texted me oh you're fine [Music] thank you thank you do you want a cosmopolitan no no no hold nothing or yeah all right oh so i was playing this earlier i got dealt four to the royal correct carry yeah i got dealt four to the royal i had a four-time multiplier up top or something and of course i did not hit it we'll be back to slots after this open ender all right seven queens [Music] maybe i should have held the aces michael alphonse in the house check out live stream casino shenanigans on facebook featuring michael halphon nothing all right the no holds barred anything goes facebook gambling drinking debauchery group sanders lodge shared the length thank you okay in order here we go oh come on give us something here come on [Music] all right here we go four to the flush let's hit this yeah look at the next all right come on four of a kind wherever oh come on oh come on top here okay guys all right come on could be eight thousand dollars it could be all right here we go a little dramatic pause come on twenty thousand dollars here it comes [Music] oh man yep yeah i got del four to the royal with the multiplier i had a couple good deals today [Music] here we go [Music] all right here we go come on four of a kind four of a kind king queen [Music] hey quads there we go oh cheers that's why i got somebody else here [Music] maybe if i do a late night it'd be all video poker live stream it's a possibility if anybody wants to do a video poker with me tonight maybe i'm going for it oh you just look at it [Music] okay so it's open ender too yeah so you need a two or seven eclipse [Music] there we go [Applause] 2500 [Music] all right [Music] nice all right so we're at 28 10. i'll probably play down 2 500 or so yeah um come on here it comes guys let's play for a miracle carry i'm good right yeah ah tyler smith the b.o.d for president carrie lee for vp i like it okay let's do it again come on four of a kind [Music] [Music] [Music] yes sir oh come on four aces come on [Music] [Music] okay that's right it's lacey from the slot ladies the one and only will she go live tonight i don't know if you guys want to send her money on only fans i think she may go live again tonight but hopefully is that how you send people money oh yeah so if you check out lacey's instagram and tracyd or whoever has it share it in the chat and on instagram they have your cash app in there so if somebody wants to send lacey 100 bucks or she gets up to 500 tonight i think she may go live again [Music] oh somebody sent you 100 you just need 400 more all right that sounds fair and whoever sends the most money can pick the game [Music] it'd probably be after the big jackpot tonight probably directly after before the group poll [Music] it actually was good she told me my left arm was sore because my right arm was tight [Music] yeah i had the hundred minute in the end well worth it eight times there we go anything i have a mask on my braces oh there we go can we get the flush can we get a flush ah yeah that's a good way to end it positive money and tracy d thank you mod tracy just shared lacey's instagram so just to confirm her cash app is linked in the buy over instagram right yeah all right so if she gets 500 tonight 400 more she will be going live [Music] am i down only 500 left yeah i guess i'm only at 500 left tonight wow i thought it had more oh yeah we had the thousand between those two machines right so what do we want to do for the last so let me think about schmidt i put 500 in there 500 here okay we all know what's going to happen last guys 25 spins huff and puff [Music] that's right guys huff and puff to end the night and wild wild nugget is being played i was going to end it tonight in a wild wild nugget but some gentleman is playing it so i can't do that yep 25 spins we're doing well we're gonna do 25 spins we did it yesterday for a thousand bucks we couldn't hit so maybe it's due that that logic worked on the uh what game did the logic were gone oh autumn moon we lost yesterday all right here we go 25 spins huff and puff let's do it um yeah maybe some late night live play i'll talk to some people and figure out a game plan there's no promises [Music] well i got some money to throw in the pot it could be video poker who knows two more yeah yeah there we go by the way we're gonna end it we got backup spins all right i'm excited yesterday was terrible today is much much better one more oops man i didn't mean to do that [Music] oh come on don't be like that it is going to be like that we got backup spin so there's one point we just want a coin [Music] ouch and the actual three games only played seven dollars and fifty cents it was bad [Music] 500 bucks will be the floor [Music] thank you that was not a good bonus nope nope nope [Music] come on the volume is maxed out that is not the issue what are you gonna do one more spin to end the night on bank the bonus live play i don't i would like to play it through but i don't know if that's fair because everybody has to agree on it so based on that um i'm okay thank you though so but guys thank you so much on behalf of b.o.d scary carrie and lacey we will see you soon remember check her out on instagram camera's on you just let you know oh hi taking my these are not i can't walk in them so i'm switching all right so check her out on instagram if she gets 500 today she's going live and you pick the game if you're the highest donor and also check her out on only fans so all right guys thanks to glot and i will see you guys later on maybe late night tonight bye
submitted by discoskyline to discoskyline [link] [comments]

TheBigOStock

TheBigOStock
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tldr: This stock dropped because of COVID, but it actually is a better buy than it was before COVID, and the play is to just say the stock is going to go back to where it was. With printer going BURRRR, and cheap plays, what is to lose? NYSE O: 11/20/20 70c

Part One: Breakdown of assets.

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Credit: Realty Income NYSE:O
When looking at the above graph you can see that Realty Income (“NYSE:O”) has diversified assets across different industries. While someone could study for years and years the different effects that COVID will have on different industries, I would argue that the biggest effect would probably lie within casual dining restaurants. When looking again at the above graph about 3 percent of their portfolio consists of casual dining services. Whereas quick service restaurants consist of 4.8 percent of the total portfolio. Now, I have no DD for this except for the fact that I went to drive-thru restaurants during the pandemic, and they had less staff and honestly the same amount of traffic. So with the diversification of assets, I am not arguing that one of them is going to go crazy to the moon like the bull I am, because real estate is a noncurrent asset and unless you are building, you are just going to cover your rent/lease not lease more than you have to. So, while some companies might default, the diversification should be able to take a little bit of a hit and be okay. The main takeaway should be that it is mainly commercially focused and not residentially focused at all, and some of their top twenty customers are stores that are popping off right now. It should be also noted this that is one of the largest REITs on the market.

Part Two: Purpose of Stock

The main purpose of this stock is a monthly dividend. It is legit their tagline “The Monthly Dividend Company” so the main value of their stock is going to come from the dividend yield. So the only reason the share price should drastically change is if the dividend yield suddenly changed. It hasn't
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Payment Date Vs Dividend Payment For NYSE:O
When looking at the dividend payment amounts over the history of the company it can be seen that it is increasing in value over time as the dividend is increasing. I am not going to include the 5-year chart because I can assume people can handle looking at it on their own. But the key takeaway from the dividend history is that there are eight dividends on history during COVID and they have not only not decreased but over time they have increased during COVID. Not by much but by about a penny a share.
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One Year Chart for NYSE:O
Now when looking at the one year chart for NYSE:O, it can be seen that some of the bears have taken over and assumed that all REITs are trash because of COVID. When this stock posted its highest dividend in history, the stock was tanking at the end of March and was in freefall. So the only thing that this stock is valued on is fine, not only is it fine, it is better than ever, and for some reason when it keeps reporting earnings higher and higher, analysts keep putting it lower and lower. So with that in mind, the dividend yield is way off. It is currently around 5 percent based on the current share price. When it should be around 4.62 percent. Looking at the page, and just being a bull, and assuming good reinvested retained earnings this stock could go to the moon(back to 80 dollars a share). The last close was around 59 dollars, so the options chains are practically free tenders.
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Below are the two charts to compare on the same scale:

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Just pay attention to the mid-2019 to current.
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The Scales are off because I am lazy in my data handling.

Part Three: The Play for TENDYS

So now that we have established value in the stock, seen that it is going down just because big firms are big bears we have some plays that we can do.
*Option 1: 11/20/20 70c
*Option 2: 11/20/20 65c
*Option 3: 01/15/21 72.5c /70
*Option 4: 03/19/21 75c/80c
The great thing about these options is that they all have low IV, The Greeks are all pretty normal, and this is assumed to be a boomer stock. Option one does seem to be kind of an earnings play, but it is better than those weeklies that have 300 IV
For your grandpas out there you can just buy into the stock cheaply and take a healthy monthly dividend and buy-in at a painfully obvious discount.

Part Four: Conclusion

The idea here is not that this stock is going to the moon, but that it is going to go back to where it was pre-COVID, given a track record of better performance over COVID. The plays are cheap, and the tendys are there. There is a lot assumed in this DD, but it is my first one. If you could prove everything, this wouldn’t be a casino. Now on the options plays, being wrong about timing is just as bad as being wrong. I truly believe that after four months of better dividends the stock should slowly recover. Also, with the recent random drop in the last trading week options became even cheaper. The November 70c is more of an earnings play than anything but for you casino players out there that is the move. Before the market hit the toilet this week this stock was on its way back to 70.
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This is my first DD so I could also just be retarded.
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CREDIT: Rstudio, a bunch of libraries I cannot remember, and Realty Income's website.
submitted by jflyfish to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Best/Worst villain of each Bond era?

So I've recently started watching the series again in honor of my late grandfather. We used to watch the series every summer but since moving out of my childhood home and his passing approx 4 years ago I haven't really had a desire to watch the series. Given the upcoming NTTD as well as the state of the world nowadays I decided I wanted to do something to uplift my spirits and I figured watching through the Bond films again would be just the thing!
Currently I'm up to Dalton but I wanted to propose a question for members of this sub. Who do you feel are the best and the worst main villains of each Bond? For ease I include Lazenby with Connery.
Connery/Lazenby: Best - Auric Goldfinger - This was really hard to choose as most of the iconic villains of the franchise were born during this era: Dr. No, Largo, Blofeld (Pleasance or Savalas), heck even the unseen Anthony Dawson Blofeld could be seen as iconic given the mysterious nature of the character up until that point. I think the reason I gravitate towards Goldfinger as the best is the simple matter that he is in total control for about 85% of the film. After Bond's captured he does almost next to nothing for the rest of the film apart from bedding Pussy and killing Oddjob. Goldfinger's confidence just oozes out in almost every scene he's in. He's also intelligent enough to have an escape plan built into what is almost a fool proof plan and pulls it off well. But it also helps that he's not an invincible villain in that Bond's already beaten him at his own cheating game twice in the early part of the film. You could argue none of the other villains in this era got as close to succeeding as he did apart from Pleasance Blofeld (especially since the timer on the bomb was supposed to be stopped at 3 seconds instead of 7).
Worst - Ernst Stavro Blofeld (Gray) - I think it was pretty obvious who was going to come in for worst here. Blofeld...the same man who had threatened to nuke Miami, start WWIII, and sterilize entire species of animals and crops is now fleeing from a building while dressed as a kindly old lady. Even if you subscribe to the theory that DAF takes place before OHMSS and after YOLT it STILL seems like it's a departure of character. Plus....making body doubles of yourself only to keep them around you in the headquarters of your latest plan? What was he thinking?!
Moore: Best - Francisco Scaramanga - This I will admit is a bit of a personal bias as Christopher Lee is my favorite actor of all time. Lee plays the role with such conviction and takes it so seriously in spite of how goofy the script can get at times. To me he essentially commands the entirety of TMWTGG and any time he's not on screen the film just starts to drag. The film makes it clear just how dangerous Scaramanga is but, at the same time, he's basically a dark foil to Bond, a charming and suave man who could be your best friend as well as beat you down if need be. I just really wish he was in a better overall film!
Worst - Kamal Khan - Kamal's biggest sin is that he's just boring to me. He's just smug and doesn't really have a whole lot going for him. At least General Orlov is fun to watch with how over the top he is in his scenes, Kamal's just kinda there. Dr. Kananga was also close to being chosen but I feel that at least he has the goofy persona of Mr. Big as well as the legit chilling scene where he yells at Solitaire. If I counted him John Hollis' Blofeld would actually take this spot but I wanted to start some conversation.
Dalton: Best - Franz Sanchez - Such a great depiction of a Pablo EscobaManuel Noriega drug dictator that even Escobar had to tell Robert Davi that he was impressed with him. Sanchez is another character that I feel you could have a drink or a laugh with, but if you double cross him you'd easily find yourself either dead or disfigured.
Worst - Brad Whitaker - Koskov and Whitaker both have this problem that Necros so heavily overshadows them in their own movie that neither one is THAT memorable of a villain but I feel I have to give Koskov that his transformation from kind of goofy and likable defector to just smug jerk is pretty effective the first time you watch TLD. Whitaker, to me, just seems like he's kinda tacked on to the movie to give Bond someone to fight after Necros since Koskov wasn't going to do any fighting. Joe Don Baker also isn't THAT over the top in the role (aside from a few select moments) to make him stand out like Orlov was.
Brosnan: Best - Elektra King - I almost chose Alec Trevelyan here but I decided to go with Elektra since, while both of their betrayals cut Bond pretty deep, I feel Elektra's cut worse since I seriously think Bond thought he found the next Tracy in her. Without Elektra TWINE also loses a lot of what made the movie so good as Renard on his own is just okay but I don't think people would be near as forgiving of the movie if Elektra was not part of it.
Worst - Gustav Graves - If you had asked me to make this choice many years ago I would have had Elliot Carver here because I used to have such a hatred of Carver that I thought he almost single handedly ruined TND. The more I saw the movie and as I got older I mellowed out over him considerably and, while I still don't like the character all that much, I can at least see what they were trying to do with him. Not so much the case with Graves....Graves suffers from Kamal Khan-itis in that he's such a bore and he doesn't even have the buffer of having another villain in his movie that can be entertaining to watch. Ironically, even though they're meant to be the same person I find Colonel Moon to be WAY more interesting of a character and villain than I do of Graves.
Craig: Best - Raoul Silva - Before Spectre came out, I would have put Mr. White here. That's not to way Spectre ruined his character overall, it just portrayed him in such a sympathetic light and we saw how far the character had fallen that there really was no way that I could put him at the best anymore. Why Silva is here is really simple....he succeeded. Yeah it was a bit of a roundabout way to get there and he ended up dying in the end, but he totally accomplished his goal of killing M. Javier Bardem's monologue about the rats is also a favorite scene of mine in the whole Bond canon.
Worst - Dominic Greene - To me Greene is the worst villain in the whole franchise up to this point. I know the Writer's Strike ruined a lot of QOS but even still we could have been given SOMETHING about this guy. Instead the film is juggling too many plot points and wrapping up baggage from Casino Royale to get us invested in the guy who is supposed to be the main villain. Mr. White and General Medrano are both interesting but neither of them are supposed to be the main villain of the picture. We don't even get the satisfaction of Bond killing Greene onscreen like we do for Kamal and Graves and instead get told that he was killed offscreen by some random Quantum assassin. Greene stabbing his own foot with an axe is probably the most memorable thing about him to me.
submitted by FelixRodriguez78 to JamesBond [link] [comments]

[Serious Question] How much is gaming contributing to your happiness?

I would like to preface this post by saying I am a lifelong gamer. I am not some "gaming prude" that thinks playing GTA makes you a serial killer. I have played games all my life and would continue doing so until the day I die. But probably not in the same manner.
Last night I was hopelessly browsing through Steam and GOG for new titles. I have finished DOS2 for the second time (best RPG of all time) and needed something to scratch the itch.
You know how some people spend more time browsing titles on netflix than actually watching anything? Yeah. I became the cliche. Everything was either too micromanagement, too bad in terms of UI, boring gameplay etc. Than I asked myself this:
"When have you ever been satisfied by a game?"
And then I started thinking. A lot. I really wanted to answer that question so I started to list all the video games I have ever played in my life. Everything from obscure dinosaurs like Technomage and Silver, to classics like Civilization and World of Warcraft, to recent titles like DOS and Witcher 3.
My list is currently 120+ titles long. I have also went on and added hours played. Some from Steam actual amount, and some from memory. I also included all the time I spent reading various gaming wiki's to become better at some games (EU 4 I am looking at you!).
I have to tell you, as much as I love games, and I think they are a true medium for art, that list wasn't such a pretty thing to look at.
Between all the Dota clones I have about 3500+ hours! And these were not enjoyable hours. For every cool match with cool teamamates that exchanged jokes with each other there were a 100 other matches of toxic pub scrubs shouting poison at each other (with me being among them).
I won't lie to you - these 12 hours a day of playing dota games from dawn to dusk were not done during a happy period in my life, which could be said of WoW as well. Even while I was on a winning streak I was not happy! Instead of enjoying my 25+ MMR, I just wanted to quickly start the other match. And don't mention losing streaks - every lost match just made me want to play another match to win back those MMR points. I have never taken to gambling. Not even filling a lottery ticket. But wasn't that a Skinner Box every casino owner would dream of?
I won't lie and tell you all games made me miserable. I still get misty eyed when I think of To The Moon. The Walking Dead season 1 was probably the best point and click games of all time that singe handedly revitalized a dying genre. And after finishing Planescape:Torment I was legit not knowing how to continue my life for 3 days straight. It was that good.
But all of these great gaming experiences were a week of dota in length. I may be to blame because of my poor choice in games. But whenever I feel a need to play, I don't go for these types of games. I may think "I really want to start playing Pillars of Eternity" but then I say "ah screw it fire up Civilization!".
I am not bashing players of Civilization or Dota. You are entitled to like what you like. I can't help but feel like a rat in a Skinner box when I want "just one more turn/match".
Anyways, this is getting too long. My final tally was that I probably burned 10,000 to 20,000 hours on games. You ever heard of the 10k hours rule? I could be a world class pianist in that time, or just a really good cook, chess player, step up dancer, beat boxer and hobbyist EDM producer all at the same time.
I am not blaming anyone but myself for this. Currently im in school studying fullstack web development after getting my life on track and off meds. Programming is one of the most interesting things I have ever done. I can do it for like 10 hours day. It's not as "primally gratifying" as pwning newbz, but I can love myself at the end of the day.
Playing so much could have been a sign of depression, loneliness and anxiety more than a fault in the medium of video games itself. If I would have put in 1 - 2 hours a day in really quality story based games, or weren't so obsessed about reading dozens of wiki articles about nailing a perfect colonizing superpower in Europa Universalis 4 on the hardest difficulty I would have enjoyed it all more. I guess games take advantage of my perfectionism.
I would like to close by saying that now I think why I was stuck in that "browsing hell" yesterday. Maybe there are "no good games to play" because it's not games that I need. Every game that I ever played was some form of an RPG, and I think its because I was always chasing this feeling of accomplishment in a medium that was ill suited to deliver it to me.
Maybe I can't find a good game because what I really need is to finish this fucking web app I want to build for all this year but never got around to for a myriad of bullshit reasons.
I have loved games, will always love games, and I will most definitely develop one or two in the future. But a really good game you know? Not a shitty skinner box. In Planescape Torment I was talking a character out of suicide. For someone that was depressed for half of his 20's, that's something for me. And no rare epic will be as good as developing something like that for someone out there who might be like what I once was.
It would be nice to hear your input on my experience, or your experience with games and how they contribute, or not contribute to your happiness.
I would like to thank all the crazy people that read up until this point, if you exist. I will play much less now. But I promise to love it more.
submitted by BigBootyBear to truegaming [link] [comments]

As promised: My comprehensive (and biased) list of fun or interesting things to do, eat, and see around Miami and Florida

General things anywhere (tourist friendly):

MIAMI:

South Beach/Miami Beaches/Key Biscayne:

-SoBe (not touristy):

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-North Beach:

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-Biscayne/Virginia Key:

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-Wynwood/Midtown/Downtown:

Food/Bars:
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North Miami:

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Gables area/Key Biscayne (I’m not too familiar):

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South Miami/Homestead:

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BROWARD:

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PALM BEACH/BOCA:

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THE KEYS:

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ORLANDO/CENTRAL FLORIDA:

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NORTH FLORIDA:

TAMPA/ELSEWHERE:

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SCUBA DIVING SPOTS :

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submitted by fartsmagoo to Miami [link] [comments]

The Junius Theory - & How Hays Could Crack The Case

(NB: for those who think ‘spoiler’ doesn’t go far enough - this post contains a theory about the role of an actor listed in the final 2 episodes on imdb - based only on his character name, previous roles & real-life physical appearance. In other words - ***IMDB Spoiler***)
Will Purcell is found dead, placed in the pose of his communion photo (taken by a Priest from St Michael’s Church of the Ozarks), and with straw dolls found leading to the scene (made by Patty Faber of the same church). Patty says that she sold these dolls to a black man with a filmy eye, these dolls were given to the children by two ghosts at Halloween, and the Priest says Julie was excited about seeing her Aunt (she has none).
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The children had been lying to their parents about a secret playspot where they played Dungeons & Dragons, & had been given a bunch of new-ass toys - some of which had a third party's fingerprints on. Several statements place a white woman, a black man with a filmy eye/scarring, and an ‘upscale’ brown Sedan near to the playspot, murder scene & devil’s den in the months leading to and night of the murder.
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Sam Whitehead says many black men sustained injuries whilst working on the chicken line. Lucy Purcell worked on the chicken line for Hoyt - who’s daughter (let's call her Heiress Hoyt) lost her child. This black man - let’s call him Junius (similar to the Latin 'juvenis', meaning 'young'/'children') - and let's say he looks exactly like this (actor Steven Williams, decent body of work, listed by imdb as cast as Junius for the final two episodes https://www.reddit.com/TrueDetective/comments/al6hkc/this_who_we_lookin_for_ppl/) could have sustained a facial & optical injury working on the chicken line, but his attitude/behaviour in his dealings with Hoyt in subsequent compensation conversations impressed the Hoyts, & maybe he ends up getting a much better job within the organisation, as an aide to Heiress Hoyt, say. Maybe he's romantically intertwined with the Heiress, I dunno. He buys himself a fancy brown Sedan once he's in his new role. Anyway, he's her right hand man, & following the loss of her child, Junius is directed to begin scouting children that the Heiress can Angelina Jolie (adopt/give a better life) to replace the one she lost.
Junius knows Lucy from the chicken line, her lifestyle & negative feelings towards her marriage and motherhood. He also suspects abuse within the home, given the way she talks (perhaps he even witnesses her beating her kids after work sometime). He works Lucy Purcell, & he is the conduit putting her & the Heiress in contact with eachother. He could have gotten photos for the Heiress of Julie & Will (communion photo) either from Lucy or from the Church that he bought the straw dolls, whilst scouting for new children (he bought lots of dolls 'for his nieces and nephews', says Patty Faber).
Lucy arranges meetings between the children & the Heiress with Junius supervising. Lucy tells the children not to tell their father about the meets. The Heiress falls in love with Julie. Sure, she could go down the adoption route for any child she liked. But this is the child that she wants. And the heady combo of being a millionaire spoilt brat who never hears the word 'No', & the mental health issues that come with losing a child & wanting *THIS* child to replace the one she lost is too great. Those around her have to make it work. She runs her plan past her father, Hoyt Sr, and he is livid. He pours cold water on it right away. Terrible idea. Warns her not to entertain it. But the Heiress doesn't care. She's got her heart set on Julie now. The Heiress directs Junius to arrange for Lucy to part with Julie for a fee (this cannot be done legally because Tom would not agree to it) and to set up Julie with a new identity. She waits for Hoyt Sr to be out of the country, on safari in Africa, before she snaps her plan into action.
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Lucy is drawn in by the money, being able offload the motherhood responsibilities she never really wanted, and is comforted by the knowledge that Julie will go on to lead a better life (“children shud laugh”). Julie wasn't planned, she never wanted more kids, & at least now Julie can go on & experience tons of shit that she never would have growing up at Shoepick Lane (Shoepick?/Choupique? Choupique is caviar, right? The valuable offspring of mudfish/swamp trout? Damn, I need to crack a window up in here..). It's for the best. She gets paid, and Julie gets better. And fuck Tom, he, in all likelihood, isn't Julie's baby Daddy anyway (the Purcell grandparents allude to as much at the funeral, saying Tom was welding offshore in Texas when Julie was conceived). That's how Lucy feels about it. Maybe she says as much to the Heiress. Maybe not. But when the Heiress learns this, she begins to tell Julie that her parents aren't her parents, that SHE in actual fact is her real parent, and that Julie will be going somewhere not only better, but her TRUE home. Julie is now onboard. She's an aristocrat, and going home! The Heiress' mental health continues to decline. In her trauma, her lost daughter and Julie are now beginning to merge into one in her mind. She's losing the ability to distinguish between the two.
​
The children did not know that Nov 7th, 1980 would be their last day together, that their mother has sold one of them, as they cycle off to the meet spot. Maybe Will wasn't even supposed to go this time, but he goes out of protective instinct for his sister. When they realise what’s happening, they reject it. Will defends his sister, and distracts the adults, telling his sister to scatter & hide - he’ll find her later using his scouting ability (Hays in 1980 "you can imagine that little boy looking out for his sister. He was trying to defend her. That's what happened to him"). She flees on her bike. Will breaks free and cycles off in the opposite direction, forcing Hoyt & Junius to chase one or the other. They ignore Will, and pursue Julie. She's the target (West in 1980 - "they never wanted the boy"). After some time, thinking the danger has passed, Will tries to find his sister, asking Freddie Burns at Devil’s Den if he’s seen her. But Freddie chases him off. He runs back into the woods and back into Junius & the Heiress, who have found Julie and are taking her away. He tries to stop them taking her, and gives them little choice if they want their plan to succeed. During the struggle he is killed. To placate Julie, they place him in the cave in his communion pose (this is the Heiress' crazy way of trying to suppress Julie's screams & also convince her that her new Mom is compassionate, everything'll be okay) before marking the spot with straw dolls from his bag and leaving with Julie. They drive off, away from Devil's Den, in Junius' fancy brown Sedan.
​
On the way out of Arkansas, Junius contacts his cop on the Hoyt payroll and tells him to get on-scene to make sure he's in a position to tamper with any canvassing of neighbours or potential witnesses in the area. He’ll get a great job out of this off the Hoyts in the private sector, he’ll make sure if that. Sure enough, all mentions of a brown Sedan driving around, away from Devil’s Den, a black man with a filmy eye/scarring, by several neighbours are not included in field reports. The farmer was also interviewed by a white man with a badge immediately after the abduction, but this was not submitted either. The Hoyt Cop does his job well, & Hoyt’s Ozark Children's Outreach Centre charity disrupts the investigation with the reward, flooding the task force with bogus tips (Hoyt Sr knows nothing of this in Africa - he's left his corporation in the trusty stewardship of the Heiress, who makes the most of his resources while he’s gone). Finally, Junius completes the picture by passing evidence to the Hoyt Cop to plant on the Wrongfully Convicted Man - closing the case in 1980. Shortly after, the Hoyt Cop leaves the force & begins his six-figure salary job.
​
When Lucy realises what's happened to Will, that something terrible and unplanned has happened, she loses it. Her initial reaction is to blame & hit Tom ("All you had to do was watch HIM"). Although Will's death was unplanned, Lucy knows she's out of options. She has no choice. She has to stay silent. Telling the truth would result in either her murder or her imprisonment for child trafficking. After all, she played a part in this too. Junius calls her to underscore this warning. Later, seeing Tom's anguish, Lucy sends a ham-fisted note to her own home to inform the task force & her husband that Julie has not been harmed. The FBI agent even says ”the envelope’s handwritten, this isn’t a brainiac”. Lucy stays silent, and descends into alcoholism & despair. Out of guilt, she later commits suicide in Vegas, where she spends the last of the money the Heiress gave her (Sharon Stone in Casino-style). Prior to her death, hearing of her addiction (or that she was throwing around a lot of loose cash), her cousin, Dan O'Brien, visits her under pretence of caring for her welfare. Lucy tells Dan what she did before offing herself. Or maybe she didn't off herself. Maybe Dan's just a greedy fuck who sees the money Lucy's carrying, how she's suicidal, and sees the win-win. He spikes her needle with a hot shot, takes the money, & goes to find Junius to extort the Heiress for more. He's just as stupid & greedy as Lucy was. Junius brutally silences him, dumping his body, broken in a hundred places, in a quarry in Missouri.
​
Julie never accepts her new family after witnessing Will's death, and as soon as she is able, she flees, seeing her only choice as living as a homeless kid on the street (in 2015, Hays foggily recollects “in 90 I found the video footage, we learned about Julie Purcell, that group of street kids”). Approaching the authorities is not an option for her, as they would simply return her to the family she believes beat & sold her (she doesn’t yet know her mother is dead, believes Tom isn't her birth Daddy; & the peephole wasn’t a peephole, the children would pass messages to one another when Lucy would beat them). The Heiress despatches Junius & his mercenaries to hunt Julie down in 1990. Junius knows they can’t convince Julie to return to her new home - they just have to silence her. Hays was right, the clock is ticking - they need to find her first. And they don't.
​
In Episode 2, a website Elisa Montgomery shows Hays in 2015 is titled ‘The Purcell Murders’ - plural. Sadly, I think the Heiress' people get to Julie first. Her murder in 1990 causes her father, Tom, to commit suicide, devastating West. Or maybe the task force does find Julie, and returns her to Tom. Maybe Roland is real happy with himself, & promises Tom 'everything's gonna be OK from now on, buddy'. But right before she has a chance to settle in, be rehabilitated, & talk to the police about what happened to her & Will, Junius finds her & kills her. Either way, the end result is Julie is dead, & Tom takes his own life - and Roland is crushed with anguish. The Heiress' mental health completely implodes. West & Hays are pressured to withhold any evidence that does not support the conviction of the Wrongfully Convicted Man, and Hays, insisting they pursue the 'black man with scarring & white woman' is forced out for his insubordination. West knows Hays is right, but goes about things differently. He's a more sophisticated political beast, and doesn't have quite as big a mouth. He knows they'd need police resources to solve this case. So he bites his tongue, plays along with the Attorney General's request, and watches as his buddy gets canned. The case is closed, and it would appear that up to 2015, the Heiress' conspiracy to abduct Julie, which resulted in the murders of both Will & Julie, has not yet been publicly exposed.
​
My theory is that Hays continues to pursue the case in 90. Off the force, he will need all the investigatory help that he can get from Roland & Amelia to go rogue as a true detective and solve the case - just like Rust needed Marty. West is a careerist, but privately devastated at what happened to Tom Purcell, a man he steered from suicidal depression back to functioning sobriety only to lose him because they were too slow in getting to Julie first (or failing to protect her adequately once they did). He is onboard all the way. He owes Tom for what happened to him & his kids. He, like Marty in S1, 'has a debt', and just like Marty, he will bring police resources into play on the DL to repay that debt.
​
So - what ways can they go to crack the case wide open? :
- Option 1: Find Junius. Get that list of all work-related injuries sustained at the Hoyt plant by African-Americans. Check their vehicles, fingerprint all of them by open or clandestine means, and correspond fingerprints to those found on the children’s toys (requiring West's police access). This should give them a hit on Junius, who will give them the Heiress, who will give them what happened to Julie & Will.
- Option 2: Find The Hoyt Cop. Rundown all the police who worked canvassing during the ’80 investigation. Locate all the neighbours, which ones feel their statements were either redacted or suppressed, and whose signature is on them? Where are those cops now, what did they do, who left the police during or after the investigation, and who has links to Hoyt? Who came into money during or just after 1980? Who made large purchases, home, car during or after 1980? The evidence that was planted on the Wrongfully Convicted Man - who found it? Who processed it? Whose signatures are on the scene? West can provide that information. Once you got a list, take that damn photo array to the farmer. Have him ID the cop who visited him. This should give them the hit on the Hoyt Cop, who will give them Junius & the Heiress.
- Option 3: ID The Sender of the Letter. Compare family handwriting samples with the envelope handwriting the letter was sent in. West would need to supply this. This would give them Lucy, but she is dead, and so can't be compelled to talk. But at least now they know that this wasn't an abduction. This was child trafficking. Which gives them Option 4.
- Option 4: Follow The Money. Investigate Lucy’s finances. Child trafficking is highly profitable. If there was a transaction, the money must be somewhere, & come from someplace. Although, it would be difficult for West to investigate this without attracting the attention & fury of his superiors.
​
The only route here that protects West while still using his police resources without his superiors noticing is for Hays & West to pursue the Hoyt Cop (probably now an ex-cop, in a better paid role - similar to Junius, thanks to the Heiress). I think they find him (this is the guy - https://www.reddit.com/TrueDetective/comments/alk2ml/theory_the_suited_manwhat_hays_left_in_the_woods/), and beat him heavily for information. The ex-cop gives them Junius - everything he did, killing Will, snatching Julie, interfering with the investigation, and having Julie killed... But he senses he won’t make it out of this interrogation.. He makes a move, & tries to grab Roland's gun. Hays draws quickly & guns him down. This wasn't part of the plan. They're murderers now. The Hoyt Cop joins the Vietcong in Hays' 2015 hallucination of all the men he has killed. But now they gotta make this look right. They bury the Hoyt Cop deep in the woods (he is who Hays' 2015 hallucination of Amelia is referring to when she taunts him about what he ‘left in the woods’) before burning their clothes (that's what he's burning in the BBQ in the 'coming soon in the weeks ahead' trailer). This changes everything. They know who they're after now. But they killed their way getting there. There's no going back.
​
They track down Junius, and Roland needs no invitation to deal with him. "You had the last one, Purple. This one's all mine..." He looks at Hays. "For Tom." Hays watches as Roland brutally beats & tortures Junius. Finally satisfied, Roland pulls out his gun and takes aim at Junius' head. But before he can execute him, a familiar hand pushes his arm down once more. "Don’t. Wait a minute. I want to know the whole story" says Hays. "Tell me why. What was all this for, a paedophile ring? A trafficking ring? Who's running the show? How many other girls are out there?" Junius says it was neither. It was all about Julie. He tells about the Heiress, her lost child, her trauma, how he tried to get her to go down the adoption route, but once she met Julie, it was all about her. And Lucy agreed to it. She got paid. It was win-win-win: a willing mother's pain soothed, an unwilling mother's burden lifted, & a better life for a little girl. Or at least, that was the plan. But Will wasn't supposed to be there. It wasn't supposed to go down like that. And once Julie fled the nest, having witnessed that, they could never let her talk. He never really had a choice. Hays is rocked. But Roland is unmoved. Still focused. "We done here, Purple?" Hays nods, and moves aside, stunned by this revelation. Roland puts a bullet in Junius' good eye. "Now they match, motherfucker." He goes to spit on Junius in his vengeful rage, but Hays pulls him off. “DNA.... DNA, man! C’mon! Get yourself together.”
​
This leaves only the Heiress. They track her down to the castle-type home drawn in Julie's pictures. But when they finally catch up to her, they look at each other, stunned. She's now almost completely vegetative in her mental collapse. Hays shakes his head. No, man. We can't do this. Let's just do this legit. Put all what we got so far on the table and send her ass to jail. Roland darkens. He can't believe what he's hearing. He shakes his head. "Im sorry partner, but u whistlin’ Dixie on this. Think. Think! Think on what she done. Will! Julie! Tom! A whole entire family. Wiped out like a turkey grease spot. Because of this person. This woman. Now, she got to pay. And even if we got all our evidence admitted in court, we'd surely go down with it....... Junius? The Hoyt Cop? We'd be in the jail cell right next to hers. Except she ain't going to jail, son. When Daddy Hoyt gets wind of this shit, he's gonna spend every last million he has getting his daughter off the hook. She's crazy, your honour. Diminished capacity. She never done nothing, your honour, she was just rambling crazy! They’ll put as much of it as they can on Junius. Best case scenario, she eats the manslaughter wrap, cushy psychiatric discharge to a mental facility. She'll live out her last days in pretty much the same way she doing now. Comfortable. Warm bed. TV. Regular nappy changes. Visits from family whenever she wants. Don't you see? Don’t you SEE? Whether she eats the conviction or not, her life won't change. It won't make a difference. She won't pay for what she done. And to let her skate, after doing what she done? No. We got no choice. We got to put her down for real. For good."
But Hays believes in a fair kill. He hunts boar because if you miss, they can kill you too. He'll only hunt deer with a bow - & never with bait or using a stand. He'll only pull the trigger when shot at. He killed the Hoyt cop because he drew him down first, and he killed in Vietnam because they were shooting at him. No. This ain’t him. They've gone all the way, done so much in this case together, but this, he can't do. The Heiress is defenceless. It’s not a fair kill. Hays puts a hand on Roland’s shoulder. “I'm sorry, partner." Hays walks away as Roland takes a deep breath, & puts his leather gloves on. He takes long, shaky, multiple swigs from his hip flask. And then he murders the Heiress.
​
The Heiress doesn't appear in Hays 2015 vision of all the people he killed, because he put it on Roland. That ends their friendship in '91. Hays can't look at him anymore - and Roland can't look at himself. Roland hits the bottle big time. He's glad he got Junius for Tom. He had to do that. But murdering a woman with your own hands? That's not him. But now, it is him. This was something he never thought would be in his life. And now he can’t shake it. There’s no one he can talk to about it. He'll never forgive Hays for putting all that weight on him. His drinking collapses his relationships. His girlfriend doesn't understand why he's lit all hours of the day, always angry, always tense, or won't talk about it. The nail in the coffin of their relationship comes when State Attorney General Kindt figures out that Roland's been pursuing a closed case.
Kindt walks into West’s office & closes the door. Roland looks weathered, still wearing his hangover, but lights up when he sees a real friend for a change. “Mornin’ Sir”... Until he sees the look on Kindt’s face. “Take a seat, West.” "You were given strict orders Lieutenant West. Your remit was to lead a task force supporting the conviction of the Wrongfully Convicted Man. The murder of Julie Purcell closed that case. Now, Hays wanted to go off all half-cocked and pursue 'a black man with scarring', was it? And start running down former cops from '80? He wanted to go off running his own detail unsupervised. So he got canned. And lookie here, in the news. A black man with scarring found shot up. And a former cop from '80 is reported missing by his family. Now, I'm not saying it's you, West, but there's no way Hays could have done this without access........ I sure liked you....... But you're done. Turn in your badge and gun by the end of the day." Kindt gets up to leave, before turning around. "But because I liked you, I'll be fair. Drop on your sword. If you resign today, and you keep your mouth shut about all of this? You can keep the pension. Your good name. Your freedom. Or we can go that other way. I'll make sure you end up in the same cell as half the men you put away. You ever hear what happens to cops in prison?...............Yeah.......... Good day to you...... Mr West.” West knows this is checkmate. He's toast. He got no moves here. He is constructively canned, and walks into his home to tell his girlfriend he just lost his job. They don't last long after that. West lives alone with his demons, bitter & haunted, into old age.
​
24 years pass.
​
By 2015, Hays has been robbed of his memory of these events by his dementia. Hays does not solve the case in 2015. He simply figures out that he already done solved it in 1990! Maybe, with his condition, this isn't the first time he's gone through this process. He's trapped in a locked room. Having the same dream. Again. And again. And again. Time is a flat circle for him now. 2015 Roland knows this. He sees his friend's condition. He just doesn't wanna go back into that head place. Maybe this is the first time Hays has approached him about this, maybe it's the 10th time. But Roland don't wanna know, don't wanna go back there. The bleakest time of his life. He smoked his own career to make that shit right. But the murders they done. Tom's suicide. Their failure to protect Julie, breaking his promises to Tom, all whilst he was steering the task force. And the murder of a woman (the Heiress) by his hand. All that pain, death & anguish. "Nah, man. I don't wanna think about that shit or eat no boar meat, man. Motherfucker. Just get me two fingers of Southern Comfort."
​
The purpose of the 2015 timeline is twofold: 1. to help Hays remember (maybe not for the first time, but for the final time) that he brought satisfactory closure to the case, and also to his life. Amelia is dead, & Roland won’t go beyond cryptic hints about what they done. But Hays’ visions of Amelia & interactions with Roland & Elisa help him finally piece together & remember what they did. He finally reads the closing chapter of his Wife’s book, which contains a warm & loving tribute to him, with hints that she knew exactly what he & West went through to bring justice to the children's killers. What it cost them. What it cost him. In their souls, their careers. Carried for life, like a weight. And that in the end, as a marriage, they did live a genuinely loving, loyal & happy life together. And now, satisfied in remembering that, Hays can take the handgun from his drawer and return peacefully to be with his wife ("I may be deciding I don't want to stay alive without your mother"), whilst also simultaneously tying up the one last loose end of the case....
The second purpose of the 2015 timeline is to blow the Hoyt corporation & the political careelegacy of State Attorney General Kindt into the ether, and overturn the conviction of the Wrongfully Convicted Man. This couldn't be done in the past, because in blowing the lid off this mess, Hays knew he would be exposing himself to a murder charge, & possible retribution from the Hoyt corporation. But in 2015, with the Hoyt family mostly deceased, and no death row awaiting him in the afterlife, Hays is comfortable blowing the lid off this godforsaken mess, giving Roland some sweet revenge on his old boss Kindt, & giving the Wrongfully Convicted Man's family the peace of mind they deserve. Because now that he has found peace of mind & closure, Hays realises that everybody deserves peace of mind & closure. And he wants to give it to them.
After Hays' funeral, his son, Henry, finds a note directing him to the dictaphone, which details from start to finish the real truth about the Heiress' child trafficking activity, Junius, the murders of Julie & Will, Lucy's complicity, the Hoyt cop, Kindt’s purposeful obstruction of justice.... and Henry gives it all to Elisa.
​
Elisa gets exactly what she wanted. True Criminal goes viral globally - Serial style - blowing the case wide open. Elisa obtains Sarah Koenig-style celebrity, but more importantly, this allows the Wrongfully Convicted Man's family to finally clear their father's name, with the reputation of the Hoyt corporation & the political career of State Attorney General Kindt blown to dust. Hays & West become folklore renegade heroes for their acts, just like Rust & Marty.
​
But Henry knows the details now shared could expose his father's old buddy Roland to a charge, despite his age. He owes that old man a visit, an explanation, maybe some modern legal advice on how to protect himself from the media & legal intrusion that's a-coming by pinning all the murders on his father, Wayne. He secretly loves that his father did that vigilante shit. He's happy for him to take the weight. Maybe Wayne already did put the weight on himself in the dictaphone message, maybe Henry taped over the bits that mentioned murder, but the media/law are still surely gonna come knocking for Roland at some point now, with questions. Cause this shit is worldwide. It's viral. Everybody’s gonna want a piece of Roland. They need to co-ordinate, he owes him that courtesy as a minimum.
​
The final shots of the season are of the family of the Wrongfully Convicted Man paying their private respects at the side-by-side graves of Wayne & Amelia Hays for salvaging their father's name (if the Wrongfully Convicted Man is Woodard, maybe it would be cool if they sung the Native American Warrior's Mourning Song with a solemn dignity, draping their father's Vietnam medals over Wayne's grave in respect https://youtu.be/uzf3bjyDNAY); and Henry Hays arriving at Roland West's home to give him the dictaphone, tell him what his Dad said, and co-ordinate.
As he arrives, Roland is hollering & hoo-eeeing with delight at his TV watching the news as the cuffs go on Gerald Kindt. They go outside & share a Soco dub on the porch in a knowing, satisfied silence. They look up, watching the big harvest moon. What it means to them. How before, it was just a reminder of the cold. Of all the pain. And now, how it floods everything with light. After some time, Roland glances at the dictaphone that Henry brought. Roland grins, looks toward the harvest moon, then, at peace with his past, finally, drawls "Y'know, sunnnn... The thing about yr Daddy.......... He always did have a big fuckin’ mouth". They laugh. Henry: "Yessir :) He sure did.. He sure did."
CREDITS.
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