Week 7 Recap: Week 7 was a mess. I didn't have time to commit to a full article and my single suffered because of it. Fortunately we hit our 1pm parlay. Side note, we were Seahawks winning away from a BBDLS! Start tailing, we will deliver a Big Boy soon! 🤓
Singles (6-8, -3.1u)
Parlays (1-3, +17.09u)
Teasers (none)
BBDLS (0-2, -2.2u)
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SUNDAY GAMES
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Indianapolis at Detroit: We start of the day with one of the more interesting match ups. Seems like an normal non conference match up, but both of these teams are looking to build some moment and give themselves a shot at a wild card spot. I know, we are only in week 8. But the Lions need every win they can get and the Colts schedule is about to get much harder.
The Colts do have the better record and the rest advantage in this one, coming off a bye. However, they have benefitted from a very easy schedule to open the 2020 season. Their four wins have come against teams with a combined 7-19-1 record. And their struggles have come on the road (1-2, losses to the Jaguars and Browns).
Detroit is looking to get above .500 and be relevant in their division (btw they are like +1200 right now to win the north and they have a real soft spot in the schedule ahead...) They are coming off a last second TD win vs Atlanta and the vibes are flowing.
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Minnesota at Green Bay: Battle for the NFC North. GB comes into this game off an easy win in Texas. Their offense again could not be stopped. It has looked monstrous this year, however looking closer it put up 40.7 ppg on 459.7 ypg over their first three games, but has averaged just 327.7 ypg and 25 ppg over their last three games and Aaron Jones is still out. On the other side, the GB secondary hasn't been very good. To make matters worse on the defensive side of the ball, 6 players (YES SIX) from the linebacking core are listed QUES.
On the other side, we have the crap storm of the Vikings. The offense has started the season slow, they are 1-5 and have been abysmal on defense this year. On a positive note they are coming off a bye and get Dalvin Cook back this week. He was almost irrelevant in the first match up as GB got out to such an early lead, MIN running the ball was not a play called.
Forecasts for Sunday are calling for high winds in Green Bay and my Algo has this as only GB -3/3.5. We are looking at MIN coming out faster with the added rest and game planning. If that game scrip plays out, it should give MIN the advantage to utilize Cook more than the first match up and allow MIN some opportunities to score and cover. With that game script the algo likes Cook props and Cousins to have a high rate of success on his play action drops.
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New England at Buffalo: Another divisional game, this one could have actual implications on the AFC East winner. With a win here, NE can erase the last few weeks of poor performances and positive covid tests and game reschedules and restricted practices. Again, we should have another poor weather game as Winter is Coming. If this wasn't such a weird year I would say easy win for NE. Mcdrmit hasn't beaten Bellichek yet as coach of the Bills and three of those losses have come with Allen as the starter. In the six career games against the Patriots the Bills have scored: 17, 16, 12, 10, 6, 3. That's 10.7 points per game (The three games that Allen started, the Bills scored 17, 12 and 10).
However, this isn't a normal year and this isn't the normal Pats. Their run defense has been shit, giving up 132 rushing yard per game and their offense......Well. Only time will tell if this recent offensive slump is a blip because of covid and Cam or if Cam really is just done and NE is going to have to rebuild. My algo has this flagged as a heavy under game, however the value on that may be missed as the total has dropped nearly a TD since open. Still in a cold, divisional game, predicted under, I still see value on the the team catching points.
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Tennessee at Cincinnati: WTF is this line movement?! This is one of the crazier spreads/totals for me. My algo see this as a PK/TEN-1 with a Total of 54.5. The markets opened up around 3.5/55.5. Fairly reasonable as TEN is a one loss team and CIN is a 1 win team. However as the week progressed the money is 90/80 on TEN and the spread has moved up to -7 in most places. with the total having RLM and dropping?! I know CIN has Mixon and some offensive linemen out but DAMN, up to 7!? Five of Tennessee’s six games this year have been decided by a possession or less, they are 2-5 ATS in the last seven games... ANNNNDD Cincinnati has covered in five of its last six games... Couple this with TEN coming off a hard loss to PIT AND they have a shitty secondary. I don't see how Burrow and the Bengals don't keep this game within one score. Personally I think this game is worth a little sprinkle on the moneyline!!
*Yes, I know the Titans have Henry and the Bengals have one of the worst run defenses. But TEN offense vs CIN defense isn't the only matchup in the game.\*
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Las Vegas at Cleveland: Two teams that I think will be fighting for an AFC wildcard spot behind the Steelers come the end of the year. LV is coming off a loss to Tampa Bay, but were in the game until a disaster of a 4th quarter. Cleveland is coming off a last second win over divisional rivals the Bengals but lost OBJ in the process. Chubb is still out but Hunt has been covering well in the RB department.
My algo has this as a PK so I can't help but look at the LV side. Both of these teams have horrible secondaries and I will be looking at this game for a SGP.
Sidenote, CLE last 2 seasons as a favorite they are 6-8-1and as a favorite of 4 of less they are 2-5-1 ATS.
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New York Jets at Kansas City: Seriously, just like last week's Jets game, not much to say. Record points spread. Why do I want to touch this? They covered vs the Bills last week, but KC? At home? And do I want to bet on a team favored by 3 TDs? Just skip this game except for KC in your survivor pools. (Except maybe look at Bell revenge game against the Jets?)
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LA Rams at Miami: Rams are coming off an impressive win against the Bears, but now travel East for a 1pm game on a short week. MIA is coming off back to back wins AND a BYE week. However, even with that momentum, the head coach thinks it's Tua Time for a change. So this week, MIA will have it's recent draft pick starting at QB over Fitzmagic. Does this mean the people at MIA know that NE is going to win and they have a shot tooo? OR does it mean they think BUF has this division wrapped up, so they might as well give next years QB some real game time? Only time will tell I guess.
Surprising to me, my algo actually has this game as a Pickem/ MIA -1 and it favors a low scoring affair. Another surprise is the majority of the money is on LA yet the spread hasn't budged. This is usually a clear sign for me to ride with the dog, however I don't know anything about TUA. My algo thinks Fitzmagic is in. So I am not sure how to proceed here.
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Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Here we are. One of the potential AFC Championship matchups. Undefeated PIT heading into 5-1 Baltimore for an AFC North showdown. Pittsburgh Came out strong vs the Titans last week, but in the second half flipped and almost gave the game away. The Ravens are coming off a bye and while their offense isn't putting up MVP type numbers like last year, they are still getting the job done.
To me this one is simple. PIT is the hot team right now, public perception is through the roof. They are now on their second back to back road game taking on Harbaugh off a bye and unfortunately for the Steelers he Ravens 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS after bye under him.
Now, you might say, " Create, what about that Pitt defense?! They are 6-0 for a reason!"
To which I would say, in his career, Lamar is 3-0 vs top 5 defenses, one being the PATs last year.
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LA Chargers at Denver: A divisional game between two teams at the bottom looking up. The next few years should be interesting for these teams. Id say the Chargers have a higher ceiling, but only time will tell. My algo has LA as -1.5 for this one so no heavy leans.
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New Orleans at Chicago: NO coming off a big comeback win in a divisional game. Chicago coming off a loss on MNF and now a short week. My algo actually has this as CHI PK/-1. Im guessing the line is so far different because of the MNF loss? Either way, a home team with a good defense, catching points...Sign me up
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I am leaving SNF and MNF off for now. It is 10am and I would like to post with enough time for you guys to utilize and enjoy.
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I have about 30u of Free Bets to use over the next 4 weeks. Im sure they will get sprinkled mostly in the parlay section.
Singles (44-53, -10.59u)

• DET +3 (2u to win 2u)
• MIN 1Q +0.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
• MIN Team Total over 21 (3.3u to win 3u)
• MIN first to 10 points (1u to win 1.4u)
• MIN +7 (1.25u to win 1u)
• Kirk Cousins to have a Passer Rating of 110+ (1u to win 1u)
• Dalvin Cook 75+ Rushing Yards & to Score a TD (2u to win 2.4u)
• Lamar Jackson & Cam Newton 50 or more Rushing Yards Each (1.5u to win 2.78u)
• CIN +7.5 (2.4u to win 2u)
• Joe Burrow 275+ Pass Yards & AJ Green 75+ Receiving Yards (2u to win 3.25u)
• Joe Burrow to have a Passer Rating of 115+ (1u to win 2u)
• CIN Team Total 21 Over (2.2u to win 2u)
• AJ Green 53.5 total receiving yards Over (1.5u to win 1.3u)
• A.J. Green 104 receiving yards Over (0.5u to win 1.95u)
• MIA 1Q +0.5 (2.65u to win 2u)
• BAL ml (11u to win 6u) \This is under a First Bet free roll promo. If it loses, I get the wager back\**
• PIT Team Total 20 Under (2.1u to win 2u)
• BAL to lead FH/FT (1.5u to win 1.5u)
• Mark Andrews & Jarvis Landry to Score a TD Each (2u to win 11.75u)
• Darren Waller Anytime TD (1u to win 1.25u)
• George Kittle Anytime TD (1u to win 1u)

Parlays (5-18, +2.5u)

• The stArt of War - Patriots(+4.5), Lions(+3.5) & Vikings(+6.5) @ +550 (0.5u to win 2.75u)
• KC ml, TB ml, CHI ml, BAL ml, CIN +8.5, MIN +8.5, LV +3.5 (FB to win 129.94u)
• TB ml, CIN +10.5, LV +4.5., MIN +10.5, BAL +4.5, CHI +8.5 (FB to win 42.76u)
• Prop play with Waller, Kittle, Robinson, Jefferson, and Keenan Allen (1u to win 36.41u)

Teasers (1-2, +16.35u)

• None this week, however good candidates are DET, LV, CHI, NE and the UNDER (before it dropped a TD) and the LAMIA Under.

BBDLS (0-36, -31.29u)

• I have 5 in for a total of 2.7u

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Thanks for reading! Good luck to all! :D

We continue with the divisional rundown of the 2020 NFL Draft with the intriguing AFC South. Catch up on the other installments of this 2020 NFL Draft review series with the NFC South, AFC East, NFC East, AFC North, and NFC North.
Every year after the draft, I write a way-too-long review of each team’s draft. The purpose of this draft review is to give predictions for the careers of each team’s drafted players. I’ve watched film of each player I’m commenting on. Draft grades are overly optimistic and unrealistic. Unlike the majority of post-draft coverage out there, I will pick busts. Keep in mind that 23.4% of all first-round picks bust.
Let me preface this by saying: predicting the career of an NFL draft pick is a ridiculous exercise. There is so much unknown that goes into whether a player succeeds or fails at the next level. I can make educated guesses based on team situation, supporting cast, and research about the prospect’s character and work ethic, but there’s a reason teams make so many mistakes every year. You simply don’t know for sure how a player will react to being a pro. Injuries are also a huge factor in the fate of a player and impossible to predict accurately. Nevertheless, this is a fun exercise and gives us a chance to review how each team approached the draft.

Overview

Before we start, here are some of my general thoughts on the 2020 NFL Draft.
Quickly on the broadcast - they did a great job given the circumstances. The production quality was great and they did more actual analysis than usual. My main gripe with draft coverage every year is that they don’t show incredible highlights (they somehow didn’t show the Aaron Dobson catch in 2013). This year, they showed more footage of actual football and I appreciated that. The only two negatives for me were the constant tragic stories and Booger McFarland.
Oh, and if any poor soul bet on Justin Jefferson Under 21.5 draft position, ESPN should apologize to you. They showed him on the phone celebrating right before cutting to Goodell announcing the 21st pick - Jalen Reagor to the Eagles. Jefferson was of course on the phone with the Vikings, who took him at 22. Brutal beat.
As for the draft, remember this tweet about mock drafts being “wronger” than ever? Funny, this was probably the chalkiest first-round ever in the internet age. Nothing was truly shocking to me, including the Packers trading up for Jordan Love (more on that here). I had Damon Arnette in the first round in my first mock draft this draft season. I wrote an article lauding Jordyn Brooks as an undervalued commodity. Noah Ibinoghene going in the first was surprising, I suppose. But there was no Clelin Ferrell at No. 4 or Tyson Alualu at No. 10. It speaks to how the media and internet scouts might be catching up to, or God forbid actually influencing the teams.
So here is another installment of my annual draft review. Each player will receive their career prediction in parentheses following their name. For example: Joe Burrow (5). Here's how the picks break down:
5 – All-Pro: Starter who has performed at an elite level at his position. 4 – Above-Average: Starter who has been among the best at his position. 3 – Solid: Starter or valuable back-up with significant positive production. 2 – Replacement Level: Below-average starter or back-up who made minor contributions. 1 – Bust: Player who didn’t amount to anything positive.
Next up, the AFC South.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars had one of the best drafts in the league. They came in needing to re-tool the defense and added two of my top-15 players. In the second they took a high-upside playmaker, and capped their day-two haul with one of my favorite run-stuffers in the entire draft.
C.J. Henderson (4) has shutdown corner talent. He has the innate ability to cover people in man, showing good technique in press, off, trail, and motor. His coverage instincts and breaks on the ball are on par with Jeff Okudah. Henderson’s weakness defending the run is partially due to a lack of ideal strength. If the Jaguars play enough man coverage, it won’t be exposed much. Henderson’s blazing speed was on display on an unreal hustle play to force a touchback (gif below). He has very pretty feet. I’m not Rex Ryan, I swear.
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With the 20th-overall pick, the Jaguars selected one of my favorite players in the entire draft in LSU’s K’Lavon Chaisson (5). Chaisson was the 9th-ranked player on my board and epitomizes the traits vs. performance misconception. In 2015 I endorsed Danielle Hunter as a big-time pass rusher despite tallying just 4.5 sacks at LSU. It’s coincidental that any critique of Chaisson begins with “lack of production.” On film, there are instances of being this-close due to technique deficiencies. He likely did not always great out amazingly with his position coach. But as far as evaluating translatable traits, and projecting him to the completely different NFL game, Chaisson is oozing with upside at just 20 years old.
Everyone agrees that Chaisson's physical traits are outstanding. He’s an exceptional athlete, somehow both smooth and twitchy with great balance. He’s a raw speed rusher who can bend, and has ideal ankle flexion for an edge player. Against older and more experienced tackles like Andrew Thomas and Alex Leatherwood, Chaisson didn’t always produce or perform well in an NCAA context. However, he had reps where he won and/or displayed ideal translatable traits in terms of pass-rushing technique, power, speed, handwork, and moves he can develop. My notes are overwhelmingly positive. He destroyed a guard on a stunt, stunted over two gaps to explode inside for a sack, showed big hits in space, beat Leatherwood twice off the ball, and showed power against the Oklahoma left tackle. I was right on Hunter. Chaisson has even more upside.
In the second round, the Jaguars selected one of the most enigmatic players in the draft in Colorado’s Laviska Shenault Jr (3). Shenault was flat-out dominant for the majority of his college career, standing out as the best player on the field in most games. His power is uncommon for a wide receiver. As a run-after-catch threat, he’s in the Cordarrelle Patterson mold. And while he’s undoubtedly a better natural receiver than Patterson, he’s still too raw to start at Z right away. His stop-start ability is terrific and he’s a threat to take it to the house on hitch routes. His coaching staff gave him a 4th-and-2 end-around.
As a vertical receiver, his film leaves a lot to be desired, with multiple bad offensive pass interference, lack of separation and ball tracking, and route-running issues. Simply put, he’s raw. There’s a lot of projection here, and if he puts it all together, he can be a star. His lack of timed speed (4.58 40) actually did show on tape. On the Cordarrelle Patterson-Anquan Boldin spectrum, I predict he’ll land closer to Boldin. The draft slot disparity between he and Henry Ruggs shows how much NFL teams value speed over college production. Perhaps they shouldn’t.
I wrote extensively about Davon Hamilton (4) here. He’ll develop into one of the best run-stuffers in the league and a top interior force. I also liked Ben Bartch (3) and even Josiah Scott (2) a bit, while the rest of the draft community thought the enormous Collin Johnson (2) was a steal. The Jaguars made 12 picks. If six of them are still on the roster in three years, this rookie class will spark a successful re-build.

Tennessee Titans

When the Titans drafted Marcus Mariota, the vast majority of people thought he'd become a franchise quarterback. I predicted he would max out as an Alex Smith-level player. The Mariota era is over in Tennessee, as Ryan Tannehill parlayed his late-season surge into a huge contract. The Titans came into this draft without any glaring holes. Their first two picks suggest they went with the best player available on their board.
Unfortunately, Isaiah Wilson (1) was nowhere near the best player on my board at No. 29. I had him ranked 67th-overall despite rumors he would be a first-round pick. Clearly something was off with the perception of Wilson, as the draft community was much lower on him than NFL teams. One reason for the disparity is how much the NFL values pure size in the trenches. At 6-6, 350, Wilson surely looks the part. I think NFL decision-makers still put a value on “first-guy-off-the-bus” type bodies, which Wilson definitely has.
The actual film shows arguably more pure strength than Mekhi Becton, but not nearly the same athleticism. He’s a raw right tackle who is good on double teams and shows awesome power when he gets his hands inside. The issue I can’t get over is his tendency to bend at the waist and miss initial hand placements. He wasn’t even in the top 100 players on PFF’s big board, which suggests he may not have graded out well. They’ll need to coach bad posture habits out of him and hope he keeps his weight in check.
I was also not a huge fan of Kristian Fulton (2). Fulton was productive in terms of pass break-ups and one of the top performers at DBU. But again, projecting to the NFL is not about college performance, it’s about translatable NFL traits. There’s a reason such a productive college player with ideal speed and measurables fell to 61. Fulton generally struggled to get his head around defending verticals along the boundary, showing a lack of ideal balance and some clumsiness. He made a couple of big plays against Virginia, but was “weirdly beat in the red zone.” I had Fulton ranked 48th overall, but if I could re-do my board after the draft, I’d put guys like Arnette and Robertson over him.
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While I didn’t have Darrynton Evans (3) in my top-100 due to positional value, I am always a fan of selecting running backs on day two. Evans’ speed (4.41), production, and ultimate draft slot all point to future fantasy success. If he can learn pass protection, he can replace Dion Lewis quite easily. His film against South Carolina wasn’t great, but that speed plays, and is a great complement to Derrick Henry.
Remember that last year’s first-rounder Jeffrey Simmons started his rookie year fresh off a serious injury. It is fair to expect him to grow as a player, perhaps developing into an All-Pro. It will be fascinating to see if Tannehill can repeat his 2019 magic. If he plays at a high level again, Tennessee has the offensive supporting cast to contend in the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts came into the draft with needs at wide receiver and defensive back. After trading for DeForest Buckner, they didn't have a first-round pick. The biggest Colts storyline going into the draft was the possibility of selecting a quarterback early. They chose not to, and I agree with that decision.
Michael Pittman Jr. (3) seemingly has it all. He plays fast (4.52) with great size (6-4, 223) and excellent hands. He dominated certain games, including Utah, which featured multiple pros in their defensive backfield. In terms of physical traits, there is no question he has what it takes to be an outstanding pro. However, a deeper look into his film has me questioning his transition a little. He's not particularly strong for his size and doesn't possess great balance. His shoulder pads flop when he runs - it sounds odd but he plays a bit high. It's understandable for someone his size, but I have to be fair to my notes.
He blocked a punt and has a lot of "college" highlights, mossing poor 5-10 corners and blowing by 2-star recruits. When I went back for a second look I kind of loved his fluidity. He could be an outstanding pro or just-a-guy. The sweet spot for wideouts is typically the second round so I'll bet on him.
So where should an incredibly talented and productive Big Ten running back be selected in the NFL Draft? A few years ago Saquon Barkley parlayed an ideal frame, 4.4 speed, and tremendous statistical production into being selected second overall. Jonathan Taylor (3) was routinely thought of as a late-first to earl-second-round pick throughout the draft process, with a similar size/speed/production mix. The main on-paper differences were receiving production and fumbling. Are those differences worth such a disparity in draft stock? The point here is to pre-emptively defend my evaluation of Jonathan Taylor. He was an elite college back, but I do not believe he profiles as a special back in the NFL. His film is more solid than amazing.
Taylor's positives on film are obvious. He's smooth with home run speed and tremendous vision. He understands blocking schemes and is difficult to get down to the ground. However, his film, specifically against Illinois, is more solid than spectacular. I do not know if his not-going-down skills translate to the pro game where everyone is bigger, faster, and stronger. He gets knocked back and doesn't drive the pile way too much. Perhaps he's picking his spots, which leads to the first of the three frequent arguments against him - tread on tires (probably overrated), too many drops, and fumbling issues. Going to Indianapolis, he will have the best offensive line in football blocking for him and less pass-game responsibility. I do not expect him to be an All-Pro back, but I will likely target him early and often in fantasy leagues due to situation.
Julian Blackmon (3) has injury question marks but shows a spirited playstyle and tackling ability that translates. He has all the football traits, but deep speed is a question mark. His short-area burst is great, but he had a poor game against USC, displaying some bad angles. He should be a solid specials contributor and third safety at absolute worst.
I had Jacob Eason (2) ranked in the top-30 on my first big board. I liked his film a lot. Against Oregon, he looked like a first-round pick. The best trait Eason shows on film is his ability to make quick decisions. He loves slants, will get to his check-downs, and was good against pressure in the games I saw. Obviously he has the arm, but I noted his deep ball placement as "meh." Washington had arguably the best offensive line in the country, but Eason didn't have great weapons, as I noted multiple drops by receivers. Another underrated trait is his ball-handling, as his footwork on play-action shot plays was excellent. I would have picked Eason to be a good player if I did not read concerning insight into his character in Bob McGinn's Athletic article with quotes from scouts. That's why he fell so far. I'll give a good coaching staff a chance to develop him, but playing quarterback is so hard, you can't have question marks surrounding your intangibles for anyone to feel confident in your transition.
The Colts will take a stab at contending this year with Philip Rivers at quarterback, a great offensive line, and excellent coaching staff. They decided to build on a strength, adding Jonathan Taylor to an already talented running back room. Analytics folks may not love it, but the 49ers just had a successful year with a run-heavy attack. With how much nickel and dime teams play, it might be smart to zig when everyone else zags.

Houston Texans

The Texans essentially used their first-round pick on stud left tackle Laremy Tunsil, then extended him. One of the main reasons first-round picks are so valuable is because of how cheap rookie contracts are. So while Tunsil is clearly worth a first-round pick in a vacuum, it’s not as much of a no-brainer considering the difference in salaries. They came into the draft needing help on defense.
With the 40th overall pick they selected TCU defensive lineman Ross Blacklock (3), the 59th-ranked player on my board. While watching Blacklock’s film, I noted he would fit in best as a true nose tackle. He played his gap well, shooting out of his low four-point stance. He showed strength at the point of attack and made me think of him as a potential impact run-stuffer. Then I looked at his measurables. At just 290 pounds, Blacklock simply does not have the size to be a premier run-stuffer at the pro level. Blacklock showed a good rip move for a sack against Purdue but showed almost no juice as a pass rusher against Texas.
My Reverse Planet Theory states that the relative worst offensive linemen in college football play inside. There are only so many quality offensive linemen in the world, and in the NCAA most play tackle. When lovable penetrating defensive tackles transition to the NFL, they are now matched up against amazing interior talents and converted tackles. No other position has a jump up in competition like interior defensive linemen. Blacklock is a potential victim of the Reverse Planet Theory, but his understanding of leverage is what will make him a decent pro.
With their next pick, the Texans took Jonathan Greenard (1) of Florida. Greenard moves like he has cement in his cleats, and has substandard change of direction ability. He has some competitiveness and physicality, but not enough juice as a pass rusher to be a true edge dude. His production was nice at the college level, but I’m not even sure if his traits will allow him to be a rotational asset or special teams contributor. He wasn’t in my top 100.
Bill O’Brien received a lot of deserved hate after dealing away DeAndre Hopkins. Personal issues probably played a role, but there is no excuse for only receiving essentially a second-round pick and veteran running back for one of the best receivers in football. The next few drafts are vital for Houston, as they won’t have much cap space after inevitably extending Deshaun Watson.
Thanks for reading. Stay tuned for the NFC West and AFC West in the coming days.
AFC South Article with Gifs: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-south/736898
NFC South: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-south/736460
AFC East: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-afc-east/736202
NFC East: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-east/735919
AFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-afc-north/735564?src=cat_feat_9954
NFC North: https://www.rotoballer.com/2020-nfl-draft-review-and-team-grades-nfc-north/734932

Part 3 of 3

Part 1 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-15-matchup-strategy-guide-part-1

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-15-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)

Jaguars ATS: 5-8-0 Raiders ATS: 6-7-0
Projected Team Totals: Jaguars 19.5 Raiders 26

Jaguars

Opp (OAK) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (OAK) Run DVOA: #27
Opp (OAK) Weighted DEF: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (OAK): LB Marquel Lee (Q) LB Kyle Wilber (Q) CB Daryl Worley (Q) S Erik Harris (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): WR DJ Chark (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.J. Chark (20%) Leonard Fournette (19%) Dede Westbrook (17%) Chris Conley (14%) Seth DeValve (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Leonard Fournette (77%, 18, 6) Ryquell Armstead (23%, 2, 2)

QB/WTE Breakdown

The Jags got blasted at home against the Chargers last week, and Gardner Minshew (2QB stream) did little to instill confidence that he is an upgrade over Nick Foles. While last week was a struggle, Minshew gets an extremely vulnerable Raiders secondary this time around. Oakland has the 31st ranked pass defense by DVOA, and has given up the 2nd most FPPG to QBs on the season. While it would be unwise to trust the rookie signal caller in a 1QB league, he makes for a possible streamer in 2QB or superflex leagues, and should be considered a mid-range QB2 with some upside in Sunday’s matchup. The loss of one of his top weapons does downgrade his outlook slightly, however..
DJ Chark has been ruled out for Week 15 with an ankle injury, leaving the Jags without their most explosive offensive playmaker. That should provide Dede Westbrook (upgrade) with an opportunity to see a high volume of targets against this leaky Raiders secondary. Oakland has allowed the 13th most FPPG to WRs, but their 31st ranked pass DVOA portrays a team that is quite vulnerable through the air. Chris Conley (upgrade) should also see a bump in usage, but he has been extremely boom or bust this season, and is reliant on big plays. Consider Westbrook a borderline WR2 under the circumstances, while Conley can be viewed as risk-reward WR3/4, just know his floor is extremely low. Keelan Cole will step into 3-WR sets with Chark on the sidelines, but he isn’t a realistic fantasy option at this point. None of the Jags TEs have been able to stand out after dealing with so many injuries, but Nick O’Leary did snag a TD last week. O’Leary is a hail mary TE2, although he does have a favorable matchup against a defense ceding the 4th most FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The running game didn’t have any more success than the passing game against the Chargers, as Leonard Fournette (auto-start) was held to 63 total scoreless yards. The Raiders are less vulnerable to the run than the pass, but have given up the 9th most FPPG to RBs, so Fournette remains a volume based RB1. He’s especially valuable in PPR leagues, as he is consistently among the RB target leaders each week. Ryquell Armstead (stash) is the clear handcuff to Fournette, so roster him if you want to have insurance through the playoffs.

Raiders

Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #31
Opp (JAX) Weighted DEF: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (OAK): WR Hunter Renfrow (OUT) OT Trent Brown (Q) RB Josh Jacobs (Q, expected to play) WR Marcell Ateman (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Tyrell Williams vs. A.J. Bouye (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Darren Waller (19%) Hunter Renfrow (18%) Tyrell Williams (14%) Jalen Richard (11%) Zay Jones (10%) DeAndre Washington (8%) Josh Jacobs (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: DeAndre Washington (63%, 20, 7) Jalen Richard (38%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
A nightmare second half of the season continued for the Raiders last week in a blowout loss to the Titans, but Derek Carr (2QB only) was able to finish with a serviceable final fantasy line. Carr has gone over 21 points just once this season, so his ceiling is not something to get excited about. The Jags have given up the 11th most FPPG to QBs, so Carr has a reasonable floor, but can’t be viewed as anything more than a mid-range QB2. Leave him on the wire in most leagues.
A battle with plantar fasciitis might help to explain Tyrell Williams’ (drop) extreme dropoff over the second half of the season, but it appears the wideout will continue playing through the pain this week against the Jags. He hasn’t been a worthwhile starting option in quite some time, and the Jags surrender the 13th fewest FPPG to WRs, so consider him a TD or bust WR4, and keep him on your benches outside extremely deep leagues. Darren Waller (volume upgrade) is the real WR1 on this team, and his high weekly target floor makes him an attractive TE option at a position that is so heavily TD-dependent. The Jags have given up the 11th fewest FPPG to TEs, but Waller is too involved to be anything less than a top-6 TE1. Get him fired up this week to ensure you get a stable floor from that spot on your roster. No other Raiders pass catcher has emerged as fantasy relevant, so Waller is likely the only player that should be near a starting lineup this week.
RB Breakdown
Stud rookie RB Josh Jacobs (upgrade if healthy) was unable to play through his shoulder injury last week, leading to a workhorse level role for DeAndre Washington (stash). Jacobs currently plans to play on Sunday, so owners should put Washington on benches, and continue to leave Jalen Richard on the waiver wire. The Jags are an exploitable matchup on the ground - 4th most FPPG to RBs - so if Jacobs is active he needs to be in all lineups as a solid RB2. Washington should remain rostered as a solid handcuff.
Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Jaguars 20

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Browns ATS: 5-7-1 Cardinals ATS: 7-5-1
Projected Team Totals: Browns 25.5 Cardinals 23

Browns

Opp (ARI) Pass DVOA: #29
Opp (ARI) Run DVOA: #13
Opp (ARI) Weighted DEF: #26
Injuries to Watch DEF (ARI): CB Kevin Peterson (Q) LB Joe Walker (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): C JC Tretter (Q) OT Chris Hubbard (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Odell Beckham vs. Patrick Peterson (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jarvis Landry (30%) Odell Beckham (23%) Kareem Hunt (17%) Antonio Callaway (12%) David Njoku (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nick Chubb (70%, 16, 1) Kareem Hunt (62%, 11, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Cleveland won the battle of Ohio last week, it wasn’t pretty, and it wasn’t without drama. Baker Mayfield (upgrade) was inconsistent yet again, throwing for only 192 scoreless yards, with two interceptions. He’s sandwiched two serviceable fantasy outings with three that weren’t over the last five, so a bounce back seems likely. Arizona has proven time and again they can’t guard anyone, ranking 29th in Pass DVOA and 26th in Weighted Defense - ceding 24.5 FPPG to QBs, and 25.4 to WRs. Mayfield becomes an appealing matchup based QB1 this week, consider him a top-10 option.
The Cleveland passing game has been a wasteland all season, with Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) being the only solid fantasy asset. Odell Beckham is having the worst season of his career, and is reportedly playing through a sports hernia. His expected shadow matchup with CB Patrick Peterson isn’t imposing, as Peterson has struggled against No. 1 WRs (Rotoworld). A viable fantasy day isn’t out of the question, yet OBJ is far from trustworthy at this point in the season, especially since we know now he’s been playing through injury. That being said, Arizona cedes explosive pass plays (20+yards) at a 12% clip, 3rd worst in the NFL (sharpfootballstats). Consider him a boom-or-bust WR2 in the great on-paper matchup. Landry on the other hand, has vacuumed up at least seven targets in every game over the last five weeks, clearing 10 targets in three out of five. He’s seeing monster usage, and there’s no reason to expect it to slow down. He’s a borderline WR1, and needs to be in all lineups. David Njoku returned last week, splitting time with fellow tight ends Stephen Carlson, and Ricky Seals-Jones. This is a smash spot for the position - ARI hemorrhages 13.1 FPPG to TEs, league worst - but with Njoku popping up on the injury report again with a knee issue, plus the timeshare at tight end, there really isn’t a viable fantasy play here.
RB Breakdown
Like many other backfields in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns are now utilizing a committee, to the dismay of Nick Chubb (upgrade standard) owners everywhere. Fortunately, both Chubb and Kareem Hunt (upgrade PPR) are seeing solid touch counts, and having both on the field at the same time has become a regular occurrence since Hunt became available. Arizona possesses a much better Run DVOA than Pass DVOA, but game-script and scoring opportunities should work in favor of the Cleveland backfield. Arizona plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the NFL, so there should be plenty of opportunities to go around. Consider Chubb an RB1, and Hunt a borderline RB2 play in PPR settings - ARI cedes 19.5 FPPG to the position.

Cardinals

Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #25
Opp (CLE) Weighted DEF: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): DE Olivier Vernon (OUT) CB Eric Murray (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ARI): WR Andy Isabella (Q) OL Justin Pugh (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Christian Kirk (24%) Larry Fitzgerald (19%) Kenyan Drake (16%) Pharoh Cooper (11%) KeeSean Johnson (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Kenyan Drake (65%, 14, 3) David Johnson (37%, 5, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Cardinals season has taken a downward plunge in recent weeks, and Kyler Murray and company have only managed to score 24 combined points in back-to-back matchups (Rotoworld). Murray has made some downright silly mistakes, and while some of it can be chalked up to being a rookie, some mistakes shouldn’t be seen at the NFL level. His O-line isn’t doing him any favors either, he’s the most-sacked QB of 2019 (teamrankings.com). At home against Cleveland is the easiest matchup he’s seen in recent weeks, but it’s no cakewalk - Cleveland has a sturdy secondary, ranking in the top-half for Pass DVOA - and cedes just 18.2 FPPG to QBs and 20.6 to WRs. Still, Murray has demonstrated a high-floor through multiple tough matchups, and warrants every week QB1 consideration. Just be aware that although he always has boom potential, this week projects more as a floor performance.
Although he’s done little since his Week 10 explosion, Christian Kirk’s (upgrade volume) 8.8 targets per game rank 13th among wideouts this season (Rotoworld). Again, the matchup doesn’t scream boom week, but Cleveland has been inconsistent at best this season, and Kirk’s volume should keep him in the WR3 ranks. Larry Fitzgerald, after turning back the clock in the beginning of the season, has bottomed out over the second half. He shouldn’t be considered anything more than a low-end WR4, so look elsewhere. The auxiliary passing options shouldn't be considered for Arizona.
RB Breakdown
Like the Cleveland backfield, the Arizona backfield is devolving into a two man RBBC. Unlike Cleveland, it’s not bearing fruit in the way of fantasy points for either running back. Kenyan Drake has ceded snaps to David Johnson since the bye week, and at this point neither can be fully trusted. Drake is the preferred option, and the matchup is good on paper, but due to DJ’s involvement, he’s no more than a back-end RB2. DJ is a big-balls dart throw; it can’t be recommended. CLE cedes 18.6 FPPG to RBs.
Score Prediction: Browns 24, Cardinals 21

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

Falcons ATS: 5-8-0 49ers ATS: 8-4-1
Projected Team Totals: Falcons 18.75 49ers 29.25

Falcons

Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #9
Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (OUT) DT DJ Jones (OUT) CB Richard Sherman (OUT) S Jaquiski Tartt (OUT) DT Jullian Taylor (OUT) CB K’Waun Williams (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): OG James Carpenter (OUT) OT Ty Sambrailo (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julio Jones (22%) Calvin Ridley (20%) Russell Gage (16%) Austin Hooper (16%) Devonta Freeman (11%) Christian Blake (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Devonta Freeman (67%, 21, 4) Brian Hill (19%, 9, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Atlanta’s second half resurgence continued against a rudderless Carolina team last week. Matt Ryan (downgrade) has returned to form of late, posting back-to-back solid fantasy performances. His ankle injury may have been the reason for the mid-season stumble, but either way, against a ferocious 49ers defense and without offensive weapon Calvin Ridley (OUT-IR), just isn’t the time to chase points. While the argument can be made that the San Francisco defense is banged up, they still possess most of the pass rushers that have carried them this season. Atlanta has struggled to keep Ryan upright, he’s been sacked the 5th most in the NFL (teamrankings). He’s no more than a back-end QB2 in a tough matchup - SF gives up just 15 FPPG to QBs and 17.9 to WRs.
Ridley’s injury vacated 20% of the target share to Atlanta’s pass catchers, and Russell Gage is the best bet to assume his snaps and some of his target share. Yet, he still projects as a distant third option to Julio Jones (upgrade volume) and Austin Hooper (upgrade volume). The remaining receivers split snaps evenly last week, and aren’t realistic options in the tough draw. Julio should be peppered with targets san Ridley, and should be treated as an every-week WR1 regardless of matchup. Same goes for Hooper, both should be active in most lineups.
RB Breakdown
Since returning from injury, Devonta Freeman (upgrade volume) has accumulated 20+ touches in two of three games. As long as he’s operating as the clear lead back and receiving the bulk of the touches, he’ll continue to be a floor-play RB2. The matchup is imposing - SF cedes just 12.2 FPPG to RBs - but Freeman’s volume should stabilize his floor, just don’t expect a big day.

49ers

Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #16
Opp (ATL) Weighted DEF: #23
Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): DE Allen Bailey (OUT) CB Isaiah Oliver (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (23%) Deebo Samuel (20%) Emmanuel Sanders (17%) Kendrick Bourne (12%) Ross Dwelley (12%) Tevin Coleman (8%) Raheem Mostert (5%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Raheem Mostert (60%, 12, 2) Matt Breida (18%, 7, 1) Tevin Coleman (16%, 3, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The 49ers won the game of the year last week, in an exciting shootout on the road against the New Orleans Saints, 48-46. Jimmy Garoppolo (upgrade) showed critics a side of him many thought he didn’t possess, by not just managing the game, but gun slinging his way to victory when facing a deficit. He may be more than an elite game manager, rolling up 349-yards passing, with four touchdowns and an interception. On tap is an exploitable secondary that has been dissected by opposing signal callers routinely - ATL cedes 22.1 FPPG to QBs and 24.3 to WRs - Jimmy G is a very attractive QB1 streaming option in the plus matchup.
The addition of Emmanuel Sanders (upgrade) and Deebo Samuel, with the emergence of Kendrick Bourne, has created an explosive receiving corps for the 49ers. The three have settled in as the fulltime wideouts, clearing up what used to be a mess of a rotation. Sanders and Samuel are both solid fantasy plays against an Atlanta team that boasts a true pass funnel; ranking much higher in Run DVOA than Pass DVOA. Adding to that, CB Desmond Trufant has been placed on IR, creating an even softer matchup. The concern is volume. Positive game-script early could erase the need for passing, so hopefully the injuries to San Francisco’s defense allow Atlanta to stay in the game. Consider Sanders a WR2, and Samuel an upside WR3. Kendrick Bourne is a no more than a DFS dart throw. George Kittle is an every week top-3 option at tight end. Fire him up - ATL cedes 7.5 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
Two camps exist when it comes to the 49ers backfield. There are those that think Raheem Mostert has completed a hostile takeover, and is now the lead back. And there are those that think a Kyle Shanahan offense takes the hot hand approach, and that Matt Breida or Tevin Coleman could be next in-line to have the big week. Kyle Shanahan has stated that Mostert has “earned” his role as the lead ball-carrier, but we’ve seen that talk before from coaches, just look at Ronald Jones. Either way, Mostert has earned every-week RB2 consideration, but be warned, this backfield can change in an instant. Breida and Coleman are much riskier propositions, and can’t be started as more than desperation dart throws. They’ll likely still be involved in some capacity, but it’s not worth betting on.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Falcons 17

LA Rams (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Rams ATS: 9-4-0 Cowboys ATS: 7-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Rams 25.25 Cowboys 23.75

Rams

Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #24
Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #19
Opp (DAL) Weighted DEF: #21
Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): LB Leighton Vander Esch (OUT) LB Sean Lee (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): TE Gerald Everett (OUT) OT Rob Havenstein (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Robert Woods (30%) Tyler Higbee (19%) Cooper Kupp (16%) Gerald Everett (15%) Josh Reynolds (10%) Todd Gurley (9%) Brandin Cooks (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Todd Gurley (80%, 27, 4) Malcolm Brown (20%, 5, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After his first blow-up week in a long time, Jared Goff (streamer) returned to his mediocre 2019 levels in Week 14’s win over Seattle, at least in terms of fantasy points. The positive is that the Rams offense suddenly looks at least partially back to its old ways, scoring 28 and 34 points the last two weeks, albeit against questionable defenses. This week, Goff will take aim at the Cowboys - 24th ranked pass DVOA but allowing the 13th fewest FPPG to QBs. Dallas got lit up by Mitchell Trubisky last week, and are on a downward trend overall, so this actually sets up as a favorable matchup for Goff. Consider him on the QB1/2 borderline, and ride him if you are thin at QB as he should be able to produce a point total that lands somewhere in between his last two performances.
What started as a year for the record books has turned into a disappointment in a hurry for Cooper Kupp (start). Despite the Rams being without their top TE Gerald Everett (out again this week) the past few weeks, Kupp hasn’t gone over 70-receiving yards since Week 8. He snagged a TD last week to salvage his day, and could be on the verge of a breakout day with the Rams offense starting to hum again. The Cowboys have given up the 8th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this isn’t an ideal matchup, but Kupp should still be viewed on the WR2/3 borderline and be in most lineups this week. The only consistent producer over the last month at WR for the Rams has been Robert Woods (auto-start). Woods has gone over 90-yards in 4 straight games he’s played in, and looks to be Goff’s #1 target at this point in the season. Consider him a borderline WR1 this week. Brandin Cooks (volume downgrade) just hasn’t seen much volume since returning from his multi-week concussion absence, and played about a third of the offensive snaps last week. He can break a big play at any time, but his role is too tough to trust as more than a WR3/4 at this point. If you have the depth, Cooks should likely be on your bench as only a part-time player in a difficult matchup. With Everett out again this week, Tyler Higbee (volume upgrade) will resume his role as the clear pass-catching TE for the Rams. He’s won a lot of matchups for owners the past two weeks, and should continue to thrive as long as Everett is sidelined. The Cowboys have given up the 10th most FPPG to TEs, so there’s no reason to view Higbee as less than an elite TE1 this week.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps part of the reason that the Rams have looked re-energized the last two weeks is the commitment to the run game with Todd Gurley (volume upgrade). The offensive line and entire team are getting healthier, and Gurley is getting the volume necessary for an RB1 valuation. The Cowboys have given up the 16th fewest FPPG to RBs and have the 19th ranked rush defense by DVOA, so the matchup is basically a wash. Consider Gurley on the RB1/2 borderline, and get him locked into your lineup for a game the Rams absolutely have to win to remain in the playoff race. Malcolm Brown makes for a worthwhile handcuff.

Cowboys

Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #3
Opp (LAR) Weighted DEF: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): None
Key WCB matchups: Amari Cooper vs. Jalen Ramsey (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Gallup (20%) Amari Cooper (19%) Randall Cobb (15%) Jason Witten (15%) Ezekiel Elliott (10%) Blake Jarwin (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Ezekiel Elliott (99%, 21, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
While the Cowboys have been a huge disappointment overall, they remain firmly in the playoff race due to the antiquated NFL seeding rules, and their QB Dak Prescott (auto-start) has shown he is deserving of a huge contract extension. The Rams have given up the 12th fewest FPPG to QBs, and have the 9th ranked pass DVOA, but Prescott will be needed for a big day if Dallas is to get a win at home. Their solid projected point total, and Dak’s consistent presence as a top-5 QB in fantasy, means that Prescott should be a fixture in fantasy lineups in the second week of fantasy playoffs. He’s a solid QB1.
Amari Cooper (slight downgrade) may not like the term “garbage time”, but it’s hard to argue that’s not the scenario in which he caught his TD pass and salvaged his day against the Bears. Regardless, Cooper was able to produce despite looking less than 100%, and isn’t on the injury report this week. However, he’s likely to face Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage this week, which is a concern considering just how good Ramsey has been since landing in LA. Cooper has been more effective against shadow coverage this year than in previous years, and his role in the offense combined with his individual talent make him tough to bench. View him as a high-end WR2 that is capable of breaking Ramsey’s coverage, but could also finish with a disappointing 2-30-0 type of day as well. Michael Gallup (upgrade) has been relatively productive over the last month, and he could benefit from Ramsey’s focus on Cooper. The Rams overall cede the 15th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this is a spot for Gallup to potentially come through for owners. Consider him a mid-range WR2 with upside this week in a game the Boys will likely need to throw heavily to win. Randall Cobb has benefitted from the high volume of passing in the Cowboys rough last five games, but will likely see a lot of highly-graded CB Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot (PFF). Consider Cobb a low-end WR3 whose ceiling isn’t extremely high, but whose floor makes for a useful asset in deeper leagues. Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin have rendered each other relatively unstartable this season, and both should be viewed as low-volume TE2s. Neither is worth starting this week against a Rams squad giving up the 7th fewest FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The Cowboys were without Tony Pollard last week, but that didn’t serve to change their game plan much as Ezekiel Elliott (auto-start) has been a workhorse all year long. Pollard is expected to return on Sunday, but Zeke will get his 20+ touches again this week regardless. The Rams are stout on the ground - 3rd best DVOA and 10th fewest FPPG to RBs- but Zeke is an easy RB1 due to his volume and talent. Get him locked into your lineup, and keep Pollard rostered as a feel-good insurance policy.
Score Prediction: Rams 21, Cowboys 17

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at LA Chargers

Vikings ATS: 7-6-0 Chargers ATS: 4-7-3
Projected Team Totals: Vikings 24 Chargers 21.5

Vikings

Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #23
Opp (LAC) Weighted DEF: #18
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): LB Uchenna Nwosu (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): RB Alexander Mattison (Q) WR Bisi Johnson (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Casey Hayward (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Stefon Diggs (20%) Dalvin Cook (15%) Kyle Rudolph (13%) Irv Smith (13%) Bisi Johnson (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Dalvin Cook (47%, 20, 2) Alexander Mattison (37%, 16, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week was a game that fantasy owners always fear; the home favorite Vikings so outmatched the injury riddled Lions that none of the offensive weapons were needed for a big day to capture the win. Kirk Cousins (low-end QB1) was solid as a game manager, but finished with only 242 yards and 1 TD. This week he’ll likely be in a more competitive game with the Chargers, who have given up the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs. While this should lead to higher volume for Kirk, the matchup concern is a legitimate reason to consider keeping him on the bench. Getting Adam Thielen back from injury should help to establish his floor, but his ceiling isn’t as high considering the Chargers are not often involved in shootouts. Owners can view Cousins as a low-end QB1, and throw him in lineups if they don’t have a safer and higher upside option.
Cousins will have stud receiver Adam Thielen (downgrade) back on the field this week, and that means owners will have a tough decision to make with their lineups. Stefon Diggs (start) is likely to see Casey Hayward in shadow coverage this week, which would leave Thielen with more positive matchups, but Diggs is easier to trust given his body of work throughout the year. The Chargers have given up the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs this year, giving both receivers a slight downgrade in outlook. Consider Thielen a WR3, and Diggs a WR2. Both have a solid case to be in starting lineups this week, but Diggs is the slightly preferred play. Kyle Rudolph (downgrade) gets a tough potential individual matchup with stud safety Derwin James, and needs to be pushed just outside the TE1 ranks this week. The Chargers have given up the 9th fewest FPPG to TEs, and Rudolph is quite TD-dependent, so consider your options before plugging him in. Irv Smith simply isn’t seeing the volume to be trusted at this point, so he should be viewed as a low-end TE2 in a tough matchup.
RB Breakdown
Fantasy superstar Dalvin Cook (auto-start, upgrade) was subject to the same issue as Cousins, as he saw an uncharacteristic 47% snap share, but still was able to save his line with a few nice runs and a short TD plunge. This week sets up much better for Cook, as the game should be competitive throughout, and the Chargers are more vulnerable to the run than the pass. They’ve given up the 13th most FPPG to RBs and have a bottom-third run DVOA, so get Cook fired up as an elite RB1 once again. Keep Alexander Mattison (stash) rostered as a top-3 handcuff, even if he ends up being ruled out. If Cook were to suffer a setback or pick up a minor injury, Mattison would be an elite RB1 for the fantasy finals assuming he’s healthy.

Chargers

Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #7
Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF: #9
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Jayron Kearse (OUT) CB Xavier Rhodes (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Keenan Allen (23%) Hunter Henry (20%) Austin Ekeler (17%) Mike Williams (13%) Melvin Gordon (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Austin Ekeler (49%, 12, 5) Melvin Gordon (46%, 17, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Chargers came a bit out of nowhere last week to drop 45 points in their win over the Jags. Philip Rivers (slight downgrade) eclipsed 25 points for the first time this season, and was dealing all game long. He’ll face a stiffer matchup from the Vikings - Minnesota cedes the 11th fewest FPPG to QBs and has the 11th ranked pass DVOA. Consider Rivers a mid-range QB2; his ceiling isn’t extremely high but his weapons should establish his floor as a solid asset in 2QB or superflex leagues.
Still not producing at levels owner are accustomed to, Keenan Allen (start) has at least returned solid value over his past 4 games with good yardage and 2 total TDs. Mike Williams (downgrade PPR) FINALLY scored his first TD of the year, after getting 10 last year, and continues to make impressive contested chunk catches week in and week out. The Vikings have given up the 8th most FPPG to WRs, and Xavier Rhodes is no longer a shutdown shadow corner, so both WRs are worth starting consideration. Consider Allen a WR2, with upside in PPR leagues, and view Williams as a WR3 with an upgrade in standard leagues. The Vikings pass rush is impressive, and the Chargers O-line has struggled to keep Rivers upright against top defensive lines, so having the time to throw downfield might make Allen more productive than Williams this week. Hunter Henry (start) found the end zone last week, and despite some low yardage totals the last month remains a solid TE1 this week. The Vikings have allowed the 14th most FPPG to TEs, so this isn’t a shy-away matchup by any means. Get Henry active unless you have a top-3 alternative, as he might benefit from additional short throws due to Rivers needing to get the ball out quick.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps the most important player to the Chargers this year has been the explosive and dynamic all around back, Austin Ekeler (auto-start). He put up a career-high 213 scrimmage yards in the win last week, which was buoyed by an impressive 84 yard catch and run TD. Melvin Gordon (PPR downgrade) got in on the action by rolling up 84 total yards and a TD, and should continue to handle a slight majority of the carries. Ekeler’s role is slightly more valuable, however, as his looks in the passing game often give him room to make plays in the open field, and give him a higher floor in PPR leagues. Consider Ekeler on the RB1/2 borderline, especially in PPR formats, and Gordon can be viewed as a solid RB2. Both should be in lineups this week, despite the Vikings giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs, but Ekeler is a bit safer as he doesn’t require rushing lanes up the middle or goal-line opportunities to be able to rack up the points.
Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Chargers 16

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

Colts ATS: 6-5-2 Saints ATS: 8-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Colts 18.75 Saints 27.25

Colts

Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Weighted DEF: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO) Friday Report: LB Kiko Alonso (DNP) S Vonn Bell (DNP) CB Patrick Robinson (DNP) DE Cameron Jordan (LP) LB AJ Klein (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (IND) Friday Report: WR TY Hilton (LP) OL Le’Raven Clark (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): T.Y. Hilton (24%) Zach Pascal (20%) Jack Doyle (15%) Parris Campbell (15%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Deon Cain (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nyheim Hines (56%, 8, 5) Marlon Mack (41%, 13, 0) Jordan Wilkins (14%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
This season has gone south fast for the Colts, dropping five of their last six games, and Jacoby Brissett (downgrade) has been much less effective in the second half of the season. He was able to take advantage of the Buccaneers ridiculously bad secondary last week in a close loss, but will face a stiffer challenge this week. The Saints give up the 10th most FPPG to QBs, but have the 10th best pass DVOA, and Brissett may be without his top WR again this week. Consider him a low-upside QB2, and don’t look his way unless desperate in a 2QB or superflex league.
TY Hilton (injury downgrade) is currently listed as a game time decision for MNF, making him a risky starting proposition due to the fact that most of the alternative options in your lineup will have already played by the time we get final clarity on his status. Unless there is a report stating definitively he will suit up, it’s best to avoid him this week. If you own Zach Pascal (start only if Hilton sits), you could also use him as a pivot option in case Hilton is ruled out before kickoff. If that’s the case, it would leave Pascal in position to soak up another high target total. He’s been extremely productive the past two weeks, and the Saints give up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs, so if he’s the #1 option this week he should be in your lineup. However, it’s hard to bank on this as Hilton likely won’t be declared active or inactive until just before kickoff, so it’s tough to bench more established studs for him during Sunday’s games. Consider Pascal a borderline WR2 if Hilton sits, but he’s no more than a boom-bust WR3/4 if Hilton plays. It’s likely best to avoid this situation entirely if you can, and either player could potentially see Marcus Lattimore in shadow coverage if the Saints decide to go that route as well. With Eric Ebron out for the year, Jack Doyle (upgrade) has shown flashes, but put up a 2-27 dud last week. Brissett likes throwing to his TEs, and Doyle is a great red-zone threat, so with the scarcity of quality options at the position Doyle is a mid-range TE1. The Saints are middle of the pack against TEs, so get him in your lineups this week unless you have a higher floor elite option.
RB Breakdown
Another tough draw is on deck for Marlon Mack (volume upgrade). He played 41% of snaps in his return from injury, receiving only 13 touches. Still, he looked healthy, and was clearly the lead back. The Colts will likely increase his workload moving forward, and he should see closer to 20 touches this week, game-script permitting. New Orleans has only ceded 14.2 FPPG to the position, but Mack’s projected volume keep him in the RB2 ranks. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are merely afterthoughts in this offense with the return of the Mack, and both can be safely dropped.

Saints

Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #14
Opp (IND) Run DVOA: #20
Opp (IND) Weighted DEF: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (IND) Friday Report: CB Kenny Moore (DNP) CB Pierre Desir (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO) Friday Report: OT Terron Armstead (LP) OL Will Clapp (LP) OG Andrus Peat (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (30%) Alvin Kamara (22%) Jared Cook (15%) Ted Ginn (10%) Tre’Quan Smith (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Alvin Kamara (76%, 17, 6) Latavius Murray (33%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Lamar Jackson broke Michael Vick’s single-season rushing record for a quarterback on Thursday Night Football this week, so it would be fitting for Primetime Drew Brees (upgrade) to break the all-time passing touchdown record on Monday Night Football in the same week. Brees is sitting at 537 career touchdown passes, just two shy of Peyton Manning. However, Tom Brady is at 536, so it’s possible that going into MNF, Brees will be chasing both Manning and Brady (NFL.com) Indianapolis has been fading of late, Jameis Winston just posted 456-yards and four touchdowns against a usually solid secondary. Monday feels like it’ll be a special moment for Brees, he’s a top-5 QB option, fire him up.
Michael Thomas (upgrade) is also chasing greatness, going after Marvin Harrison’s single-season reception record of 143. Thomas is just twenty-three catches shy with three weeks left to go (NFL.com). Indy’s zone defense should provide plenty of underneath windows for the stud wideout, he’s an every-week elite WR1. The other wideouts are riskier: neither Ted Ginn or Tre’Quan Smith can be relied upon, and should be treated as boom-or-bust dart throws. Jared Cook has emerged as the No. 3 passing option since Brees returned from injury, vacuuming up a 15% target share in the last six weeks. He’s expected to suit up Monday, after a concussion knocked him out of last week's barn burner. He’s an every week TE1 - IND cedes 7.3 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
It was extremely disappointing to watch the Saints roll up yards and points in the shootout last week, while Alvin Kamara (upgrade) busted on 17 touches. Latavius Murray was given fewer snaps and touches than Kamara, but was able to parlay his limited opportunity into a successful fantasy outing. Unfortunately, that’s just fantasy football sometimes; a plethora of variables exist and many cannot be predicted. Kamara owners that managed to survive the opening round of playoffs, despite his unfortunate bust week, need to renew their faith for this one. Indy cedes just 14.4 FPPG to RBs - but they are bottom-12 in Run DVOA. Additionally, we may be back to a reality in which the Saints score 30 a week in The Big Easy. I’m not betting against the positive game-script the home matchup should provide; Lat “Pulldown” Murray can be considered a viable, albeit slightly unpredictable, flex option as well.
Score Prediction: Saints 35, Colts 20

Part 2 of 3

Part 1 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-16-matchup-guide-strategy-guide-part-1

Part 3 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-16-matchup-guide-strategy-guide-part-3

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)

Jaguars ATS: 6-8-0 Falcons ATS: 6-8-0
Projected Point Totals: Jaguars 19.75 Falcons 26.25

Jaguars

Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #25
Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #13
Opp (ATL) Weighted DEF: #20
Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): Gardner Minshew (Q, likely to play) DJ Chark (Q) OL Brandon Linder (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Leonard Fournette (21%) DJ Chark (21%) Dede Westbrook (17%) Chris Conley (16%) Seth DeValve (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Leonard Fournette (96%, 20, 7)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Jags were able to pull out a close win over a Raiders squad limping to the finish, and Gardner Minshew (upgrade) put together a decent final line in the victory. This week, he’ll take on a Falcons squad allowing the 5th most FPPG to QBs on the season, but playing better defense over the last two months. Minshew’s floor has been relatively trustworthy in his starts, but his ceiling isn’t something to get overly excited about, considering Jacksonville hopes to rely on the run. He’s a high-end QB2 worthy of streamer consideration this week, but don’t expect a league-winning performance necessarily.
Signs point to DJ Chark (WR2/3 if active) suiting up this week, after being held out against the Raiders, which would be a nice gift to his owners and to the passing game overall. He’s likely to be listed as questionable, but assuming he’s full go, he’s worthy of consideration. The Falcons are league average in FPPG allowed to WRs, but rank bottom-third in pass DVOA. Chark has shown a strong connection with Minshew this year, and has incentive to produce through the end of the season as he’s chasing a 1000 yard campaign (44 yards away). Consider him on the WR2/3 borderline, but only if he is cleared in time for kickoff and there are no reports of a snap-count limitation. Assuming Chark plays, neither Dede Westbrook or Chris Conley would present as trustworthy options. Conley grabbed two TDs last week, but is extremely boom-or-bust, and Westbrook is a low-volume possession receiver. If Chark is ruled out, they both become dart-throw WR3/4s, but with him active they are off the radar entirely. Keep an eye on the injury reports. You can safely ignore the TE position for the Jags.
RB Breakdown
Week 15 wasn’t a great performance for Leonard Fournette (volume upgrade) and the run game, but it was an example of how high his floor is given the workload. Despite an inefficient day, he racked up almost 10 points (.5 PPR), due in large part to his five catches on seven targets. The Falcons pose a somewhat challenging matchup this week - they are above average in both DVOA and FPPG allowed to RBs. Still, the weekly high touch and target totals keep Fournette in the RB1 range, although his ceiling is not as high as most elite fantasy backs at this point in the season. Ultimately, if you own Fournette and you’re still alive in the playoffs, you should be starting him this week as a volume-based RB1 who looks due for a TD.

Falcons

Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #31
Opp (JAX) Weighted DEF: #30
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): DL Calais Campbell (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): WR Julio Jones (Q, likely to play) K Younghoe Koo (Q) RB Kenjon Barner (Q) TE Luke Stocker (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Julio Jones vs. AJ Bouye (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julio Jones (28%) Russell Gage (16%) Austin Hooper (16%) Devonta Freeman (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Devonta Freeman (79%, 14, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Falcons turned in a Week 15 performance that reminded fans around the NFL the promise this team was supposed to hold heading into the 2019 season. By beating the Niners, Matt Ryan (slight upgrade) and company may have saved Dan Quinn’s job, at least for the time being. The Jaguars will be a potentially exploitable home matchup for the Falcons’ offense, ceding the 11th most FPPG to QBs and ranking 21st by pass DVOA, so Ryan is back in the QB1 conversation. He has all of his weapons healthy, and has nothing to lose by trying to gunsling his way through the end of the year. Consider Ryan a mid-range QB1; he’s below the elite tier but has a solid floor that should ensure owners get at least a baseline of points in their most important matchup of the year.
The blowup week that owners were so desperately hoping for finally came through last week, as Julio Jones (upgrade) went off for 134 yards receiving and 2 TDs. His second came on a game-winning TD to seal a huge momentum-building win for the Falcons. That momentum unfortunately has nothing to do with actually making the NFL playoffs. Jones is set up well even with likely shadow coverage from AJ Bouye, as Bouye has been targeted often and performed only average in coverage grade (PFF). Consider Jones a strong WR1 for the championship this week. The downside of Jones’ control over the target share was that no other option was able to emerge with much fantasy production. Austin Hooper (volume downgrade) put up a dud, but he is still in TE1 territory as a strong red zone target that Matt Ryan trusts implicitly. The Jags are league average in FPPG to TEs, and Hooper hasn’t had a good week since returning from injury, so just weigh your options before plugging him in. The rest of the supporting cast should be left on benches (or the wire) with Calvin Ridley out for the year. Russell Gage (deep streamer) is the only realistic consideration, but he’s no more than a risky WR4. He would have a favorable outside matchup if Bouye is fully focused on Jones, but is virtually impossible to trust.
RB Breakdown
The Niners were able to successfully shut down an already anemic Falcons run game last week, but the outlook is significantly better this week against the Jaguars. They have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to RBs and have the 2nd worst run defense by DVOA metrics, so Devonta Freeman (slight upgrade) may finally have an opportunity to come through for patient owners that have survived his overall disappointing season. The biggest issue is whether owners can trust him in an offense that hasn’t shown an ability or a commitment to running the ball. Freeman is at least the clear lead back in this offense, playing 79% of snaps last week, so his touch potential is strong and he has a floor of at least 2-3 targets. Consider him a low-ceiling RB2 this week with a bit of matchup upside. If you are in need of a flex with a decent floor, Freeman should be in your lineup.
Score Prediction: Falcons 27, Jaguars 20

New Orleans Saints (-1) at Tennessee Titans

Saints ATS: 9-5-0 Titans ATS: 7-6-1
Projected Point Totals: Saints 26 Titans 25

Saints

Opp (TEN) Pass DVOA: #22
Opp (TEN) Run DVOA: #5
Opp (TEN) Weighted DEF: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (TEN): LB Daren Bates (Q) CB Adoree Jackson (Q) ILB Wesley Woodyard (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO): G Larry Warford (Q) G/T Andrus Peat (Q) T Ryan Ramczyk (Q) T Terron Armstead (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (32%) Alvin Kamara (22%) Jared Cook (14%) Ted Ginn (9%) Tre’Quan Smith (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Alvin Kamara (63%, 19, 5) Latavius Murray (33%, 11, 3) Dwayne Washington (9%, 3, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
In near perfect form, Drew Brees overtook Peyton Manning as the NFL’s all-time passing touchdown leader. Brees was magnificent in the Monday night performance, tearing apart the Colts zone defense with ease, throwing for 307 yards and four touchdowns, with only one incompletion. On tap is a Titans team who have been mediocre against the pass this season - surrendering 17.5 FPPG to QBs and 21.9 to WRs. Fire Brees up as a QB1, just be aware that the pace of this game may limit opportunities: New Orleans is ranked 31st in pace of play, while Tennessee is 20th (footballoutsiders).
Three things are certain in life, death, taxes and Michael Thomas (upgrade) catching passes. He’s on pace to break Marvin Harrison’s single-season reception record, needing just 10 catches to tie. I wouldn’t bet against him getting there this week, even with some expected coverage from Adoree Jackson (PFF’s No. 13 CB). He’s THE WR1. Beyond Thomas, it’s a crap shoot for production at wideout. Tre’Quan Smith or QB/RB/WR hybrid Taysom Hill are probably the best bets, but their production is far from reliable. Ted Ginn has been non-existent in the offense this year. Fade the peripheral pass catchers. Jared Cook (upgrade) had come on strong since Brees returned from injury, so his 4-54-0 receiving line last week should be considered a disappointing outing. The Titans have struggled against tight ends all year - ceding 8.2 FPPG to the position - so fire Cook up as a sure-fire option this week.
RB Breakdown
The disappointing campaign for Alvin Kamara (downgrade) continued last week. He produced only 66 scoreless yards on 14 carries, while adding 5 catches for 23 yards. A major hindrance to his value has been his lack of red zone touches this year; he received 34 touches inside the 10 yard-line during the 2018 season, scoring 11 touchdowns. However, this year, he’s only been given 11 touches, scoring once. (pro-football-reference). This can be partially chalked up to his injury and the games missed, but he also isn’t converting opportunities at the same rate. Owners should consider Kamara a boom-or-bust RB1 - TEN boasts a top-5 Run DVOA but cedes 18.7 FPPG to RBs - so it’s still an exploitable matchup. Latavius Murray is low-floor touchdown dependent flex.

Titans

Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #9
Opp (NO) Weighted DEF: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO): S Vonn Bell (D) CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson (Q) CB Patrick Robinson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (TEN): WR Adam Humphries (Q)
Key WCB matchups: A.J. Brown vs. Marshon Lattimore (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): A.J. Brown (27%) Jonnu Smith (14%) Corey Davis (14%) Anthony Firkser (12%) Adam Humphries (13%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Derrick Henry (56%) Dion Lewis (36%)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Titans fell to divisional rival Houston last week, losing 24-21. It was a game Tennessee likely should have won, yet they fell victim to a few unfortunate breaks. Ryan Tannehill has been a godsend for this offense, continuing his breakout against the Texans soft secondary. On deck is a much tougher matchup, New Orleans is top-10 in both Run and Pass DVOA, ranking 7th in Weighted Defense. However, they do cede 19 FPPG to QBs and 26.2 to WRs - so the matchup is exploitable. Plus, the Titans are playing for their season, needing a win to have a shot at the division when they play the Texans again in Week 17. Consider Tannehill a back-end QB1, but keep expectations tempered, this projects as a floor week.
A.J. Brown. Wow. After doubting Brown due to his low volume the last several weeks, it’s time for us to eat more crow; he’s cobbled together the lion’s share of Tennessee’s targets (27%) over the last six weeks. Plus, he’s optimizing his limited volume, ranking 2nd in yards per target as a rookie since 1992 (Rotoworld). This is still a run-first team, but Brown has clearly demonstrated that he’s the Titans second best playmaker, and he’s going to be a huge part of the game plan every week. On tap is likely his toughest test, facing stud Marshon Lattimore (PFF’s No. 27 CB), but you can’t bench him. He’s defied critics, and owners that rode him are likely squaring of in the fantasy finals. Consider him a feast-or-famine WR2. None of the other wideouts are realistic fantasy options. Jonnu Smith has shown explosiveness this year, but his low-volume keeps him out of the TE1 ranks. Still, with options being so thin, you could likely do worse. He’s a low-floor, high-ceiling play - the Saints cede 6.6 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
Stud running back Derrick Henry (slight downgrade) has been hobbled by a hamstring injury the last two weeks, and was a DNP on Thursday. His status is worth monitoring, but he doesn’t appear in danger of missing Sunday’s contest. He’s on record last week saying that his leg would “have to be halfway off” for him to stop playing. He didn’t practice all of last week but still played (Rotoworld), so consider him closer to probable. The matchup isn’t good - New Orleans cedes just 14 FPPG to enemy running backs - but with Henry dominating touches and snaps, he’s still a volume based RB1. Just keep expectations a bit lower than normal. Dion Lewis found the endzone last week, but he’s not a realistic fantasy option.
Score Prediction: Saints 27, Titans 20

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-3)

Giants ATS: 6-8-0 Redskins ATS: 6-8-0
Projected Point Totals: Giants 20 Redskins 23

Giants

Opp (WAS) Pass DVOA: #18
Opp (WAS) Run DVOA: #24
Opp (WAS) Weighted DEF: #18
Injuries to Watch DEF (WAS): S Landon Collins (Q) CB Fabian Moreau (Q) DT Jonathan Allen (Q) CB Quinton Dunbar (Q) S Montae Nicholson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NYG): OL Kevin Zeitler (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Sterling Shepard (25% Darius Slayton (24% Golden Tate (18% Saquon Barkley (14%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Saquon Barkley (79%, 28, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
It appears that rookie QB Daniel Jones (slight upgrade) should return to action in Week 16, relegating Eli Manning back to the bench. Manning got a nice ovation at the end of Week 15’s win, but this is Jones’ franchise now, and if cleared (practiced fully Wednesday) he will start the remaining two games. The Redskins have been relatively average against the pass this year - 18th best pass DVOA and 14th most FPPG to QBs - so this is a slightly positive matchup. Jones will be missing his playmaking TE, but otherwise should have his full arsenal of weapons. He makes for an intriguing streamer this week; his rushing upside gives him a decent floor and he tends to look better in the box score than in the actual game. Consider Jones a mid to high-end QB2 but don’t plug him into standard leagues unless you are desperate at the position.
A suddenly stacked group of pass-catchers has made the Giants’ receivers a tough group to properly evaluate. Darius Slayton went off in Week 14, but came down to earth last week with just a 2-31 line, albeit with a TD mixed in. Sterling Shepard (volume upgrade) bounced back after a few disappointing performances with a 9-111-0 line, while Golden Tate (slight upgrade) made just one catch, but took it 51 yards to the house. The Redskins aren’t an overly favorable matchup, allowing the 13th fewest FPPG to WRs, but Daniel Jones has shown the ability to support 3 targets in past games. With Evan Engram ruled out, those three WRs should be the basis of the passing game. Tate has likely the best individual matchup in the slot with CB Aaron Colvin (Rotoworld), but his lack of recent volume makes him just a boom-bust WR3. Shepard and Slayton are slightly more trustworthy, but are still no more than upside WR3s. All have upside, but all three also have a risky floor. Consider your options before inserting them into lineups.
RB Breakdown
Congratulations are in order if you made it to the fantasy finals despite a lackluster season from your top pick, Saquon Barkley (upgrade). If you traded for him right before the deadline in hopes of a late-season breakout, then last week provided a solid initial return. The real payoff could come in Week 16 when Saquon takes on a Redskins defense ceding the 7th most FPPG to RBs and ranked bottom-third by DVOA. Playing almost 80% of the snaps last week, he went off for almost 150 total yards and punched in two rushing TDs. More of the same should be in order this week in potentially positive game script, and with his health issues seemingly behind him, Barkley looks ready to make defenders foolish again. Consider him an elite RB1 this week, and get him fired up in your top RB slot.

Redskins

Opp (NYG) Pass DVOA: #30
Opp (NYG) Run DVOA: #8
Opp (NYG) Weighted DEF: #22
Injuries to Watch DEF (NYG): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (WAS): OT Donald Penn (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Terry McLaurin (22%) Steven Sims (19%) Kelvin Harmon (17%) Chris Thompson (16%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Adrian Peterson (60%, 19, 3) Chris Thompson (34%, 2, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Redskins blew a lead late against a disappointing Eagles squad, but Dwayne Haskins (slight upgrade 2QB) at least played his best football of the year in the loss. While he isn’t someone to target in a standard league, deep superflex owners might take notice of the fact the Giants are allowing the 8th most FPPG to QBs. Still, Haskins has an extremely low floor and likely cannot be trusted in any format in a championship lineup. He’s no more than a desperation QB2.
There is only one member of this passing offense to trust, and it’s Terry McLaurin (upgrade). Fortunately, his outlook has trended upwards with some minor improvement from Haskins, and due to the fact the matchup is favorable this week. The Giants allow the 6th most FPPG to opposing WRs and have the 30th ranked pass DVOA. Consider McLaurin an upside WR2 in the plus spot, and get him in your lineups. No other pass catcher should be considered here.
RB Breakdown
The Redskins unsurprisingly rushed their young stud RB Derrius Guice back into the lineup, leading to him re-injuring his knee in an already lost season. That left Adrian Peterson (slight volume upgrade) and Chris Thompson to spearhead the backfield in Week 15. However, it was Peterson who dominated touches last week (19-2), although that may have been in part due to positive game script for most of the matchup with the Eagles. This week projects similarly, as Washington is actually favored at home by 3 points. The Giants rank highly by rush DVOA (8th) and cede the 15th fewest FPPG to RBs, so this isn’t necessarily a favorable matchup on paper. However, his workload on the ground and position as home favorite make Peterson an intriguing flex option this week. Consider him on the RB2/3 borderline with a slight upgrade in standard leagues. Thompson is off the fantasy radar outside of extremely deep PPR leagues.
Score Prediction: Giants 21, Redskins 13

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at New York Jets

Steelers ATS: 9-5-0 Jets ATS: 5-9-0
Projected Point Totals: Steelers 17.75 Jets 20.75

Steelers

Opp (NYJ) Pass DVOA: #24
Opp (NYJ) Run DVOA: #2
Opp (NYJ) Weighted DEF: #16
Injuries to Watch DEF (NYJ): S Jamal Adams (Q) DL Henry Anderson (Q) CB Arthur Maulet (Q) DL Steve McLendon (Q) CB Brian Poole (Q) DL Quinnen Williams (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (PIT): WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (P) TE Nick Vannett (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): James Washington (20%) Diontae Johnson (19%) Vance McDonald (13%) Jaylen Samuels (11%) JuJu Smith-Schuster (11%) James Conner (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: James Conner (58%, 12, 5) Jaylen Samuels (29%, 3, 1) Kerrith Whyte (10%, 1, 0) Benny Snell (3%, 2, 0) Trey Edmunds (2%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Devlin “Duck” Hodges showed his true colors against a good defense on Sunday Night Football, failing to move the ball consistently and throwing 4 interceptions. It’s clear neither he, nor Mason Rudolph, are long term options for the franchise. The Steelers will stick with “Duck” for Sunday, but he’s not a fantasy option. The return of S Jamal Adams for the Jets hurts the outlook of the Steelers offense - he’s gunning to break the single-season NFL record for sacks by a defensive back (profootballtalk).
JuJu Smith-Schuster (upgrade) is on track to make his return, and draws an extremely favorable matchup - the Jets give up 24.9 FPPG to wideouts - so there is some appeal to sliding him in lineups right away. However, due to the anemic nature of this offense, and the question marks surrounding his usage, he’s no more than a WR3. His return would relegate James Washington and Diontae Johnson to WR4/5 dart throws. If JuJu is inactive, both can be considered as boom-or-bust WR3’s. Vance McDonald is also likely to play, but there isn’t much to get excited about, McDonald hasn’t surpassed 40 yards in game this year (Rotoworld). He’s a touchdown dependent TE2.
RB Breakdown
The Steelers used five running backs last week, however, James Conner (downgrade) immediately dominated snaps and touches in his return. The Jets possess a much better run defense than pass defense, but it remains to be seen if “Duck” Hodges is capable of exploiting a secondary. With a mediocre signal-caller at the controls, the Steelers will still rely on the run and short passes, keeping Conner in the volume-based RB2 conversation. The rest of the RBBC can be safely dropped to the wire.

Jets

Opp (PIT) Pass DVOA: #5
Opp (PIT) Run DVOA: #3
Opp (PIT) Weighted DEF: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (PIT): CB Joe Haden (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NYJ): OL Tom Compton (Q) WR Demaryius Thomas (Q) OT Kelvin Beachum (Q) RB Bilal Powell (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jamison Crowder (22%) Robby Anderson (18%) Demaryius Thomas (15%) Le’Veon Bell (11%) Ryan Griffin (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Le’Veon Bell (86%, 23, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Jets were predictably outclassed by the Baltimore Ravens last week, but would love nothing more than to ruin the playoff dreams of the Steelers by upsetting them at home this week. Sam Darnold (downgrade) was overall not very effective against the Ravens, but ended with a decent fantasy line courtesy of two passing TDs. The Steelers are almost as difficult a matchup as the Ravens, giving up the 5th most FPPG to QBs. They’ve been outstanding against the pass since solidifying their secondary earlier in the year, and currently rank 5th by DVOA on the season. Consider Darnold no more than a risky QB2 this week; he’s unlikely to approach his already limited ceiling against such a quality defense.
The Steelers defense will look to put its clamps on the Jets two top receivers, Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder, in this week’s offensively challenged matchup. They’ve allowed the 10th fewest FPPG to WRs this year, so both WRs will have their hands full. Crowder surprisingly went off against the Ravens last week, going 6-90-2 in the tough spot, while Anderson stayed relevant with a 4-66 line and added a 2 point conversion. Both players have the ability and connection with Darnold to overcome the difficult matchup, so they are worth a look if you are light on options this week. Still, consider Crowder a WR3 with a bump in PPR leagues, and Anderson a WR3 with a bump in standard leagues. The chances for a TD are decreased by the low projected point total. No other option in this pass-game need to be considered.
RB Breakdown
Things haven’t come easy for Le’Veon Bell (slight downgrade) and this Jets’ running game, but Bell remains one of the few heavy workhorse backs in the NFL. It’s no guarantee he’ll even be in a Jets uniform come 2020, but at least for this week, we know what his role is projected to be. The Steelers are stout against the run - 3rd ranked by DVOA and 4th fewest FPPG - so Bell will face a tough matchup on the ground for the second week in a row. His likely high workload is game-script dependent, however, and he might actually be more valuable if he catches more passes in catch-up mode, than if he simply runs up the middle behind an ineffective O-line. However, the Steelers are tight defensively, and this projects as an extremely low scoring game with both offenses running inefficiently. Consider Bell a volume-based RB2 with a matchup downgrade, and leave his backups Ty Montgomery and Bilal Powell safely on the wire in all formats.
Score Prediction: Steelers 16, Jets 13

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-3)

Bengals ATS: 5-9-0 Dolphins ATS: 7-7-0
Projected Point Totals: Bengals 21.25 Dolphins 24.25

Bengals

Opp (MIA) Pass DVOA: #32
Opp (MIA) Run DVOA: #29
Opp (MIA) Weighted DEF: #32
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIA): DT Zach Sieler (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CIN): WR A.J. Green (OUT) G John Miller (D) RB Joe Mixon (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Tyler Boyd (22%) Auden Tate (16%) Alex Erickson (15%) Tyler Eifert (10%) Joe Mixon (9%) John Ross (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Joe Mixon (67%, 28, 3) Giovani Bernard (33%, 7, 2) Trayveon Williams (2%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bengals have zero incentive to win this week against the Dolphins, a loss secures the No. 1 pick in the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft. Andy Dalton (slight upgrade) has done a masterful job of tanking the season away, and isn’t doing himself any favors on the trade market with his recent play. He’s thrown five interceptions against two touchdowns since returning to the starting lineup, and hasn’t completed better than 60% of his passes in game (bengalswire). He’s not a realistic fantasy option, even in the amazing matchup - The Fins cede 21.7 FPPG to QBs and 28.3 to WRs.
Tyler Boyd and Alex Erickson worked well ahead of John Ross last week, but coach Zac Taylor did say he wouldn’t expose Ross to a full workload in his return from the IR (Rotoworld). Boyd is a realistic WR2 this week against a defense that has been routinely dominated by slot receivers (Rotoworld). Erickson and Ross are no more than dart throws considering their usage. Ross has the upside, but he could easily be limited again. Don’t consider a tight end in this offense.
RB Breakdown
Seeing a resurgence in the last six weeks, Joe Mixon (upgrade) has popped up on the injury report late-week with a calf strain. It doesn’t appear that he’s likely to miss Sunday’s contest, which is fortunate considering the dream matchup - Miami hemorrhages 22.9 FPPG to RBs - get Mixon active as an RB1. If he does miss, Giovani Bernard becomes an interesting flex play. He hasn’t done much this year, but in past years when given starter’s volume, he’s filled in admirably.

Dolphins

Opp (CIN) Pass DVOA: #27
Opp (CIN) Run DVOA: #27
Opp (CIN) Weighted DEF: #28
Injuries to Watch DEF (CIN): CB Darius Phillips (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIA): WR Allen Hurns (Q) K Jason Sanders (Q)
Key WCB matchups: DeVante Parker vs. William Jackson (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): DeVante Parker (21%) Mike Gesicki (17%) Allen Hurns (13%) Albert Wilson (13%) Patrick Laird (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Patrick Laird (48%, 14, 5) Myles Gaskin (48%, 11, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Dolphins disaster of a season continued on the road against a bottom-feeding Giants squad. However, unlike early season, the Fins have produced viable fantasy contributors over the second half. Ryan “Fitzmagic” (upgrade) continued his gun-slinging ways last week, throwing for 279 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. He’s an interesting QB streamer in all formats, drawing a great matchup against an awful Bengals secondary - CIN surrenders 20 FPPG to QBs and 20 to WRs - consider Fitz a back-end QB1.
DeVante Parker’s (upgrade) breakout continued in his return from concussion, he caught 4 passes for 72 yards and two touchdowns. He’s earned every week WR1 treatment, and he’s a must play in the dream matchup. He’ll square off against William Jackson (PFF’s No. 84 CB). It’s an exploitable matchup, and Parker has demonstrated that he’s capable of taking on any CB in the league. Albert Wilson (upgrade) played a near full-time role last week (80% of snaps), well ahead of Allen Hurns (46% of snaps). Wilson has some appeal as a home run hitting dart throw - CIN gives up explosive pass plays (20+ yards) on 13% of plays, the second worst rate in the NFL. Hurns and the rest of the wideouts should be avoided. Mike Gesicki is seeing plenty of targets, but failing to parlay them into meaningful production in most games. Still, considering the matchup, he has TE1 streaming appeal.
RB Breakdown
It was Patrick Laird (upgrade) leading the Fins backfield again, with Myles Gaskin mixing in. Gaskin received his highest snap percentage last week since Kalen Ballage (IR) fell to injury, and it appears the backfield is devolving into a timeshare. Still, Laird seems to be in play for about 15 touches a week, making for a decent flex option. The matchup improves his outlook - CIN has been eviscerated by opposing backs, ceding 22.6 FPPG to the position. Gaskin still can’t be trusted.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 27, Bengals 24

Part 1 of 3

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-16-matchup-guide-strategy-guide-part-2

Part 3 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-16-matchup-guide-strategy-guide-part-3

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

Rams ATS: 9-5-0 49ers ATS: 8-5-1
Projected Point Totals: Rams 19.25 49ers 25.75

Rams

Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #12
Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #3
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (D) S Jaquiski Tartt (D) DT Jullian Taylor (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Robert Woods (27%) Tyler Higbee (21%) Cooper Kupp (15%) Gerald Everett (15%) Todd Gurley (10%) Brandin Cooks (10%) Josh Reynolds (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Todd Gurley (96%, 14, 7) Malcolm Brown (4%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After a pair of encouraging performances for the Rams offense, things went back to their 2019 normals with a rough performance in a road loss to the Cowboys. It appears that perhaps the two-game upswing was more about the opponent’s defense, or lack thereof, than any real improvements. Jared Goff (downgrade) salvaged an otherwise poor outing by racking up the yards in garbage time, and his late passing TD just barely put him above his week 14 point total. This week, he’ll go against one of the best defenses in the league. The Niners have the second ranked pass DVOA and have allowed the 8th fewest FPPG to QBs on the season. They were without some of their top defensive players last week, but look poised to get their starters back this week, so that is no longer a potential upgrade. Consider Goff a low-end QB2 for championship week; he’s not someone we would recommend in any format that starts 1 quarterback.
With LA’s offense in disarray most of the year, it’s been hard to get a consistent valuation on their pass catching options. Robert Woods (downgrade) leads the way with a 27% target share over the past 6 weeks, but he put up a dud 4-17 line last week after four straight big performances. Still, his 9 targets gave him the potential for much more, and are a sign he’ll continue to be the top WR in this offense. Cooper Kupp (downgrade) was mediocre once again, going only 6-41, but grabbed a TD for the third game in a row to salvage his output. Brandin Cooks (downgrade) saw an encouraging eight targets, but it led to just a 4-46 line, and he appears to be third or fourth in line for targets at this point. The Niners are elite against the pass, ranking 2nd by DVOA and giving up the 5th fewest FPPG to WRs, meaning we need to downgrade all three options. Consider Woods a volume-based WR2, Kupp a solid but suddenly low-ceiling WR3, and Cooks a risky WR3/4. If the Niners have all their defensive starters back in the secondary it would be a further downgrade to their outlooks. Owners should get Woods, and possibly Kupp as well, in their lineups, while keeping Cooks on the bench. Tyler Higbee has taken the league and the fantasy world by storm the past three weeks, going over 100 receiving yards in every game. The matchup isn’t easy - San Francisco yields the 3rd fewest FPPG to TEs - but Higbee is too hot to bench at this point. Continue riding him as a TE1 for the fantasy finals.
Update: Even with Gerald Everett returning, Higbee is still in the TE1 mix, but his ceiling should be lowered slightly. Everett isn’t on the fantasy radar in standard leagues, but his presence does add risk to Higbee’s outlook.
RB Breakdown
Although it wasn’t a pretty performance in terms of yardage, Todd Gurley (downgrade) was able to give owners their money's worth by punching in a pair of TDs, one on the ground and one through the air. The Rams offensive line has struggled throughout most of the year, and that combined with Gurley seemingly losing some of his explosiveness has been more than enough to minimize his ability to rack up high rushing totals. He hasn’t been as involved in the passing game this year either. On tap this week is a matchup with the 12th best rush defense by DVOA, and a group that allows the fewest FPPG to RBs on the year. It’s hard to recommend benching Gurley considering his TD potential and his recent uptick in snap share (96% last week), but the matchup is concerning. Consider Gurley more of a mid-range RB2 this week; he’ll need to snag at least one TD to account for a likely mediocre yardage output. There’s no need to roster Malcolm Brown as a handcuff unless your league goes into Week 17.

49ers

Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #6
Opp (LAR) Weighted DEF: #10
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): CB Troy Hill (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): G Mike Person (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Emmanuel Sanders vs. Jalen Ramsey (ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (32%) Deebo Samuel (19%) Emmanuel Sanders (14%) Kendrick Bourne (12%) Tevin Coleman (7%) Raheem Mostert (6%) Matt Breida (4%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Raheem Mostert (53%, 15, 2) Tevin Coleman (30%, 4, 1) Matt Breida (19%, 6, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Niners take a two-game losing streak into their divisional matchup against the Rams, and Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off a disappointing performance against the Falcons last week. He’s ridden some massive ups and downs this season, but despite it all ranks in the top-15 for fantasy QBs in most formats. The matchup this week will be somewhat challenging - the Rams have given up the 12th fewest FPPG to QBs - so this doesn’t look like a “boom” week on paper. Jimmy G could be pulled into a shootout if the Rams offense kicks into gear, but this looks like a game the Niners win with strong defense and a dominant run game (as they have most of the year). Garoppolo is a risky streamer in fantasy championships, and should be considered more of a mid-range QB2 this week.
Unfortunately for owners relying on him in their semi-final matchups last week, Deebo Samuel came crashing down to earth with only one catch on three targets. It was a disappointing end to a five game streak of 12+ points scored (.5 PPR), and showed the risk of starting any SF wideout in a must win fantasy matchup. Emmanuel Sanders (downgrade) fared even worse, turning his one catch into just nine scoreless yards. Making things even worse, Sanders appears most likely to see Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage this week, which means owners should strongly consider fading him across the board. That coverage would potentially open things up for Samuel, but it’s impossible to know exactly how that could shake out. The Rams overall have given up the 15th fewest FPPG to WRs, but the main reason they shut down the Cowboys receivers was that they were getting gashed so heavily on the ground the passing game wasn’t even needed. The Niners have a similarly strong ground game, so don’t be surprised to see them look to exploit that rather than try to win in an air-raid shootout. Samuel is a risky but upside WR3, while Sanders (assuming he gets Ramsey in coverage) is a WR3/4 that should likely be avoided in championship lineups. George Kittle is the real #1 option in this offense, and the only option that should be guaranteed a spot in lineups. He’s an elite TE1, and is both game-script and matchup-proof at this point. Keep him plugged in.
RB Breakdown
Another week, another solid performance from Raheem Mostert. He wasn’t as productive as the previous two weeks, but he out-touched Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman a combined 15-10. This backfield is extremely hard to predict on a weekly basis, but it does appear as though Mostert is the 1A while Breida and Coleman operate as dual 1B options. The Rams don’t pose an overly intimidating matchup - 6th ranked run DVOA while allowing the 15th most FPPG to RBs. Given the uncertainty, it’s best to approach Mostert as an upside RB2, albeit one with a riskier touch floor than we’d like on championship week, with Breida and Coleman slotting in as TD-dependent RB3/4s. Only Mostert is worth real lineup consideration this week outside of extremely deep leagues.
Score Prediction: 49ers 24, Rams 13

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5)

Bills ATS: 9-4-1 Patriots ATS: 8-6-0
Projected Point Totals: Bills 16 Patriots 22.5

Bills

Opp (NE) Pass DVOA: #1
Opp (NE) Run DVOA: #7
Opp (NE) Weighted DEF: #1
Injuries to Watch DEF (NE): CB Jonathan Jones (D) LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (Q) LB Jamie Collins (Q) CB Jason McCourty (Q) DL Danny Shelton (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BUF): OL Ty Nsekhe (Q)
Key WCB matchups: John Brown vs. Stephon Gillmore (ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): John Brown (27%) Cole Beasley (21%) Devin Singletary (13%) Isaiah McKenzie (13%) Dawson Knox (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Devin Singletary (71%, 23, 3) Frank Gore (29%, 10, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Bills continue to win with a dominant defense rather than a gun-slinging offense, but Josh Allen (downgrade) ranks as a QB1 on the season due in large part to his rushing ability. The Patriots are one of the toughest matchups for any fantasy position - they cede the fewest FPPG to QBs on the year - so this likely isn’t the week to call Allen’s number. If Buffalo is to pull the upset, it will likely be in a low-scoring defensive battle rather than a shootout, which the low projected point total reflects. Consider Allen a mid-range QB2; his rushing gives him somewhat of a floor, but he has little chance of hitting his ceiling against this extremely elite defense.
The Bills offense, due to its lack of high scoring games, has only a few productive options. John Brown (downgrade) is currently in the high-end WR2 range on the season, and was solid last week even in a tough matchup. Cole Beasley (not recommended) has been more of a deep-league asset, but his occasional TDs have put him on the map as a reasonable WR4 streamer in the right matchups. Unfortunately for both these players, this week’s game will feature an opposing defense near the best in the league at limiting WRs. The Pats have the best pass defense by DVOA, and allow the fewest FPPG to the position. Brown is slated to face stud CB Stephon Gillmore in coverage as well, which is a significant individual downgrade. Brown is somewhat tough to bench based on his productivity, but owners with alternative options should highly consider looking elsewhere. Although Beasley won’t have to deal with Gillmore, he still is not a recommended start against NE. Consider Brown a boom-bust WR3 with a low floor this week, and Beasley a risky TD-dependent WR4. Dawson Knox is not on the fantasy radar at this point.
RB Breakdown
While not yet an elite fantasy asset, Devin Singletary (downgrade) is beginning to emerge as one of the more impressive young RBs in the league. He’s gone over 75 yards rushing in 5 of his last 7 games played, and pops out on tape as a guy that can make defenders miss while showing elite burst in short spaces. He had an unfortunate fumble in last week’s win against the Steelers, but considering that was his first of the year and the Bills seem committed to feeding him, expect another heavy workload again this week. The matchup, unfortunately, is not a favorable one. The Patriots have the 7th ranked rush DVOA and have given up the second fewest FPPG to RBs. Singletary doesn’t catch a lot of passes, and has to compete with Frank Gore for short yardage and goal-line opportunities, so he doesn’t have enough going his way to counteract the tough matchup. He is capable of breaking a few big plays at any time, but it’s best to consider Singletary a lower-end RB2 this week based on the matchup. Leave Gore on the wire in every possible format.

Patriots

Opp (BUF) Pass DVOA: #3
Opp (BUF) Run DVOA: #19
Opp (BUF) Weighted DEF: #4
Injuries to Watch DEF (BUF): DT Corey Liuget (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NE): WR Julian Edelman (Q)
Key WCB matchups: No clear shadow matchups projected (ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julian Edelman (25%) James White (16%) Jakobi Meyers (12%) Mohamed Sanu (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Sony Michel (42%, 20, 4) James White (38%, 6, 4) Rex Burkhead (31%, 8, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
It might be time to officially panic about the state of this Patriots offense, despite a predictable drubbing of the Bengals last week. Tom Brady (downgrade) is lacking the weapons necessary to elevate his game, and the offensive line hasn’t been as dominant at giving him time to throw as in previous years. The Bills are a tough matchup through the air - they allow the 2nd fewest FPPG to QBs - so Brady should likely be ignored in championship lineups unless owners are digging deep in 2QB leagues. Consider him a mid to low-end QB2 whose floor is lower than others in this range due to his lack of rushing output. Leave him on your bench or on waivers altogether.
The Patriots passing game is hard to read heading into Week 16, as Julian Edelman (downgrade) has been limited at practice, after looking unproductive last week perhaps due to injury. There are a plethora of receiving options behind Edelman, but none have any real standalone value as long as Edelman is able to gut it out this weekend. N’Keal Harry caught a TD last week, but hasn’t gone over 20 receiving yards in his five active games. He would get a boost, as would Mohamed Sanu, if Edelman were to sit, but neither have very appealing outlooks. The matchup with Buffalo is difficult as well - they cede the fourth fewest FPPG to WRs. Keep close tabs on Edelman’s status, and only consider benching if you have solid alternatives or if he has a reported setback. He’s somewhat of a risky WR2 heading into the week. Sanu and Harry aren’t more than hail-mary WR4s, and even if Edelman were out would be just boom-bust WR3 streamers. We do like Harry’s red zone abilities, however. Consider avoiding this situation entirely, and monitor Edelman’s status if you own him. There is no fantasy relevant TE to monitor for the Pats at this time (miss you Gronk).
RB Breakdown
It has been a disappointing year for those invested in Sony Michel, as the second-year back hasn’t been a consistent fantasy producer through most of the season. Michel is both game-script and TD-dependent, suffering from inefficiency and a lack of touches in a multitude of games. This week will be an interesting test; the Bills have a below-average rush DVOA but give up the 12th fewest FPPG to RBs. Additionally, it’s hard to predict the game flow for this game as the two teams appear well matched and the last game between them was a 16-10 slugfest with NE getting the win. James White continues to be heavily involved in the passing game, and has racked up at least 9 points in all but two healthy games (.5 PPR). Rex Burkhead even got in on the action last week, although that may have been due more to the blowout nature of the game. For championship week, owners should view Michel as a risk-reward RB2/3 with an upgrade in standard leagues. Consider White a high-floor RB2 in PPR leagues, and more of a solid flex in standard, while leaving Burkhead safely on the wire.
Score Prediction: Patriots 17, Bills 13

Houston Texans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Texans ATS: 7-7-0 Buccaneers ATS: 5-8-1
Projected Point Totals: Texans 26 Buccaneers 27

Texans

Opp (TB) Pass DVOA: #15
Opp (TB) Run DVOA: #1
Opp (TB) Weighted DEF: #8
Injuries to Watch DEF (TB): DL Beau Allen (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): TE Darren Fells (Q) WR Will Fuller (Q) WR DeAndre Hopkins (extremely likely to play) RB Carlos Hyde (Q, likely to play)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): DeAndre Hopkins (30%) Will Fuller (24%) Keke Coutee (14%) Duke Johnson (12%) Kenny Stills (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Carlos Hyde (67%, 26, 0) Duke Johnson (33%, 4, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Texans got a needed bounce-back win against the Titans last week after losing to Denver the previous week, and put themselves in great position for the playoffs in doing so. Deshaun Watson (upgrade) was solid, but not dominant, and proved his floor is still higher than most at the position. The Bucs are an excellent matchup for him to carry his fantasy owners this week - they have given up the 7th most FPPG to QBs. Continue to ride Watson as an elite QB1 this week; we expect he’ll be on a lot of championship rosters when the dust settles on monday night.
Despite some difficult matchups the past few weeks, DeAndre Hopkins (upgrade) has come through for owners over the past month, and should be a fixture in lineups yet again this week. He missed practice for an illness on wednesday, but is in very little danger of missing the game. Tampa Bay is one of the more vulnerable teams for WRs to play, so continue to treat Hopkins as an elite WR1. The bigger question is what to do, if anything, with the Texans auxiliary options. Will Fuller (upgrade) got back into action last week, and was able to log a limited practice session on Wednesday. It appears he should be given the green light to play about the same number of snaps (59 of 63 total) as last week, meaning he becomes an intriguing option. The Bucs have given up the most FPPG to WRs, and Fuller is capable of the kind of game that could carry owners to the championship. Monitor injury reports closely, but if Fuller is cleared he should likely be in lineups as an upside WR3. Kenny Stills (streamer) was actually more productive in the games Fuller played than the games he missed over the past two months of the season, but even so he makes for an unreliable option this week. The matchup gives him some upside, but the target share will be hard to trust. Consider him a boom-bust WR3/4. Keke Coutee is off the fantasy radar, and Darren Fells and Jordin Akins are dart throw TE2s that you are just hoping catch a TD. If Fells were to sit (currently questionable), it would make Akins a slightly more attractive option, but he still would not be on the standard league radar. Hopefully you have a more trustworthy option.
RB Breakdown
In the massive Week 15 showdown, Carlos Hyde (downgrade) came through in a big way for the Texans. He racked up 104 rushing yards and a TD, although he didn’t record a catch, per usual. Duke Johnson (downgrade) handled much of the pass-down work, but recorded a season-low 23 total yards, and got only four touches. The Bucs have arguably the league's best run defense, ranking first in DVOA and allowing the 3rd fewest FPPG to RBs. That makes it extremely risky to trust Hyde, even coming off a big week, and should all but eliminate Johnson from consideration in any lineup outside of an extremely deep PPR league. Consider Hyde a TD-dependent RB2/3, with a downgrade in PPR, and view Duke as a hail-mary RB4 in PPR leagues. Owners will hope a shootout leads to a few goal-line opportunities for Hyde to cash in on. Hyde missed practice on Wednesday, but it was “non-injury related” so owners merely need to keep an eye on the situation.

Buccaneers

Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #15
Opp (HOU) Weighted DEF: #27
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): S Jahleel Addae (Q) OLB Jacob Martin (Q) ILB Benardrick McKinney (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (TB): WR Mike Evans (OUT-IR) WR Chris Godwin (D) TE Tanner Hudson (Q) C Ryan Jensen (Q) T Donovan Smith (Q) QB Jameis Winston (P)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Chris Godwin (19%) Mike Evans (17%) Cameron Brate (13%) O.J. Howard (12%) Breshad Perriman (10%) Ronald Jones (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Ronald Jones (45%, 12, 3) Peyton Barber (28%, 12, 2) Dare Ogunbowale (28%, 2, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Buccaneers roller coaster season continued, peaking again last week in a blowout road win against the slumping Detroit Lions. Jameis Winston (upgrade) lit the world on fire, throwing for 458-yards and four touchdowns. In rare form, Winston played a very clean game, only throwing one pass to the other team; in typical Winston fashion, it occured within the first three minutes of play on the opening drive. It’s a tradition at this point. On tap is another slumping defense, HOU has been burned through the air of late, ranking near the bottom in Pass DVOA and Weighted DVOA - ceding 21.8 FPPG to QBs and 23.2 to RBs - plug Winston into lineups as a feast-or-famine QB1. Like he demonstrated last week, he has the potential to be a league winner.
Congratulations are in order if you managed to snag and play Breshard Perriman (upgrade volume). Chances are you made the finals, especially if Winston was stacked as well. Chris Godwin (likely out) has yet to practice this week, and it’s looking extremely unlikely that he’ll suit up (UPDATE-Godwin is OUT). With fellow wideout Scotty Miller also placed on IR, the only realistic fantasy options are Perriman and Justin Watson. Perriman should slide immediately into lineups as a volume-based WR2, while Watson is a much riskier endeavour, consider him a boom-or-bust WR4. It remains to be seen if it’ll be a wideout that picks up the targets vacated by Godwin, or perhaps a running back or tight end. Bruce Arians mentioned this week that the running backs will be utilized more in the passing game due to the injuries at receiver. O.J. Howard (upgrade volume) saw 8 targets last week, parlaying them into a 4-46-0 receiving line. He’s been disappointing all season, but may be ready to make some noise. Consider him on the TE1/2 borderline - HOU surrenders 8.5 FPPG to the position. Cameron Brate is no more than a desperation TE2.
RB Breakdown
The Buccaneers rolled up 495 total yards last week, yet only 49 were produced on the ground. Ronald Jones (upgrade IF volume) continues to be the lead back of a three-headed RBBC. He’s the preferred play, and is hopefully used more in the passing game sans Godwin/Evans, but don’t count on it. He’s hard to trust as anything more than a low-floor flex play for fantasy championships. However, the matchup is appealing - HOU has hemorrhaged rushing yards to opponents, giving up 132.7 per game over the last three, also ceding 20.3 FPPG to RBs. Peyton Barber and Dare Ogunbowale shouldn’t see lineups, the volume hasn’t been there consistently.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Buccaneers 24

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-6.5)

Lions ATS: 5-9-0 Broncos ATS: 8-6-0
Projected Point Totals: Lions 15.5 Broncos 22

Lions

Opp (DEN) Pass DVOA: #14
Opp (DEN) Run DVOA: #17
Opp (DEN) Weighted DEF: #12
Injuries to Watch DEF (DEN): DE Adam Gotsis (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DET): WR Marvin Jones Jr. (OUT-IR) RB Bo Scarbrough (Q) RT Rick Wagner (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Kenny Golladay vs. Chris Harris Jr. (ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Danny Amendola (20%) Marvin Jones (19%) Kenny Golladay (17%) T.J. Hockenson (15%) J.D. McKissic (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Ty Johnson (45%, 6, 5) Wes Hills (36%, 12, 2) J.D. McKissic (19%, 3, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Lions head to Week 16 in full meltdown. Owner Martha Ford announced Tuesday that both coach Matt Partricia and general manager Bob Quinn will retain their jobs for the 2020 season, giving them three years to build the program together (ESPN). It’s a curious move, considering that Patricia is 9-20-1 in his tenure. Plus, the Lions haven’t looked competitive in the second half of either season. In fairness, the injury bug hit quite hard this year, but it’s safe to assume that both coach and GM are on the hot seat. David Blough doesn’t appear to be anything special, and can be avoided in all but the deepest of formats - DEN cedes just 15.7 FPPG to QBs and 21 to WRs.
It was Danny Amendola (PPR), not Kenny Golladay, drawing the Lion’s share of the targets in a smash spot against the Bucs. Amendola looks to be the clear beneficiary of the Marvin Jones Jr. (out-IR) injury. The 3 game sample size of Blough to Golladay has produced 4-158-1, 6-58-1, and 3-44-0 receiving lines. It’s not too far off from the variable production we’ve seen from Golladay all year, and he’s due a breakout week. However, against an upward trending Denver defense, while shadowed by stud CB Chris Harris Jr. probably isn’t the place to expect it. Strangely enough, Kenny G’s best game with Blough came in the toughest matchup they’ve faced (vs. CHI), so maybe they find the connection again this week. Chris Harris (PFF’s No. 42 CB) has been lit up in back-to-back weeks by DeAndre Hopkins and Tyreek Hill, so the matchup is exploitable. Consider Golladay a back-end WR2. Golladay’s expected shadow date may open a few more looks for Amendola, he’s a WR3 in PPR formats. It’s a much tougher draw this week for the entire passing game, so keep expectations tempered. The auxiliary passing options can be faded.
RB Breakdown
The Detroit backfield is one of the bigger headaches in fantasy football. It was Wes Hills, fresh off the practice squad without an NFL carry, leading the Lion’s backfield last week in the absence of Bo Scarbrough, who’s questionable for Week 16. The possible return of Kerryon Johnson further muddies the waters, and considering The Broncos allow just 3.9 yards per carry to RBs (sportingnews), the entire backfield should likely be faded. Especially Ty Johnson and J.D. McKissic. If Scarbrough is active, and Johnson is not, Scarbrough can be considered a volume based back-end RB2 - DEN cedes 15.6 FPPG to RBs - if it’s the reverse, consider Kerryon a name value only, he’ll likely to be limited in some capacity in his first game back. If both are inactive, fade the situation.

Broncos

Opp (DET) Pass DVOA: #29
Opp (DET) Run DVOA: #14
Opp (DET) Weighted DEF: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (DET): LB Devon Kennard (Q) DT A’Shawn Robinson (Q) LB Christian Jones (Q) DE Damon Harrison (P)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DEN): RT Ja’Wuan James (OUT) RG Ron Leary (Q) LG Dalton Risner (Q) TE Noah Fant (P)
Key WCB matchups: Courtland Sutton vs. Darius Slay (ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Courtland Sutton (24%) Noah Fant (16%) Tim Patrick (14%) DaeSean Hamilton (11%) Phillip Lindsay (8%) Royce Freeman (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Royce Freeman (54%, 9, 4) Phillip Lindsay (39%, 7, 2) Devontae Booker (8%, 2, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
For fantasy managers starting Denver players, Sunday’s game against Kansas City was an unmitigated disaster. Leading the offense to only a field goal, Drew Lock (upgrade) threw for 208 yards and no scores, with an interception. It was the rookie’s first poor outing, and he’ll look to bounce back against an extremely vulnerable Lion’s secondary - DET hemoragges 21.4 FPPG to QBs and 26.6 to WRs - Lock can be considered in 2QB formats, and the entire passing game gets an upgrade.
Courtland Sutton (upgrade) cobbled together a 4-79-0 receiving line in the blowout road loss, and now looks to do battle with Darius Slay (PFF’s No. 80 CB). Slay has been exploited along with the rest of the defense of late, and Sutton has shown the ability to win his shadow matchups. Consider him a fringe WR1 in the smash spot. Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton’s low target share in an inconsistent passing game, render both WR4 dart throws, even in the great matchup. Noah Fant has flashed game-breaking ability, but has also demonstrated an extremely low-floor. This puts him just outside the TE1 ranks this week, but he possesses perhaps the greatest ceiling outside of the elite TE1 tier. The matchup is average, DET cedes 7.7 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
The Denver run game along with the rest of the offense sputtered last week. It was disappointing, especially considering the matchup against the Chiefs exploitable run defense. Royce Freeman lead the backfield in touches and snaps, but neither he nor Phillip Lindsay were able to do much with their limited touches. While Detroit’s Run DVOA is better than their Pass DVOA, game-script should work in the Broncos favor. Lindsay remains the preferred play, look for him to bounce back as an RB2 - DET cedes 22.8 FPPG to RBs - Freeman is riskier, consider him a touchdown dependent flex.
Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Lions 16

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)

Raiders ATS: 6-8-0 Chargers ATS: 4-8-2
Projected Point Totals: Raiders 20.25 Chargers 26.75

Raiders

Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #19
Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #23
Opp (LAC) Weighted DEF: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): LB Uchenna Nwosu (P)
Injuries to Watch OFF (OAK): RB Josh Jacobs (OUT) T Trent Brown (Q) G Richie Incognito (Q) WR Hunter Renfrow (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None, Hayward didn’t shadow Williams in Week 10 (ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Darren Waller (22%) Hunter Renfrow (17%) Tyrell Williams (13%) Jalen Richard (10%) DeAndre Washington (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Josh Jacobs (57%, 26, 3) Jalen Richard (29%, 3, 3) DeAndre Washington (15%, 8, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Trash rained down from the stands onto the field after a stunning late game collapse by the Raiders. The Jaguars walked away with a victory, while Jon Gruden and his team were left with an apology from the NFL for a blown call late in the game. Derek Carr had given himself up well before the sideline, and should have been ruled in-bounds, keeping the clock moving - yet the officials ruled him out, giving the Jaguars an additional 40 seconds for their game-winning drive. It was a bitter end to Oakland’s bumpy 25 tenure in the Bay. On tap is an AFC West rival fresh off a disappointing outing of their own. Carr is fringe 2QB format worthy, and shouldn’t be considered in most settings. The Chargers cede just 14.1 FPPG to QB’s, and just 16.5 to WRs.
Outside of Darren Waller, options in the passing game for Oakland’s offense have been largely non-existent. Hunter Renfrow appears ready to make his return, but the matchup renders him a low-floor PPR play. Tyrell Williams has largely bottomed-out over the last five games, clearing 50 yards receiving just once. He’s a floor option WR3 against a defense that surrenders just 197.4 passing yards per game, good for 4th best in the league. Waller is an every week TE1, get him active.
RB Breakdown
It’s been announced that Josh Jacobs (OUT) will sit for Week 16 in hopes of playing Week 17. That thrusts DeAndre Washington (upgrade volume) immediately into the RB2 conversation. The matchup is average, the Chargers give up the 17th most yards rushing per game at 110 - also ceding 20 FPPG to RBs - Washington needs to be in most lineups, and is a good bet to find paydirt. Jalen Richard should mix in as well, but he’s no more than a desperation flex play. Neutral game-script seems likely, meaning it’s unlikely that Washington is phased out in favor of the pass-catching Richard.

Chargers

Opp (OAK) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (OAK) Run DVOA: #26
Opp (OAK) Weighted DEF: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (OAK): LB Marquel Lee (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): T Russell Okung (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Keenan Allen (25%) Austin Ekeler (17%) Mike Williams (16%) Hunter Henry (14%) Melvin Gordon (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 15: Austin Ekeler (48%, 12, 7) Melvin Gordon (40%, 12, 7) Justin Jackson (21%, 7, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The disappointing season continued for the Chargers, who are essentially playing all of their home games on the road. The Vikings thoroughly embarrassed veteran signal caller Phillip Rivers (upgrade), turning him over 4 times. The Chargers as a team gave the ball away an eye-popping 7 times. On tap is an extremely vulnerable Oakland team, coming off a heart-breaking defeat. Rivers is extremely untrustworthy for 1QB formats, but the exploitable matchup keeps him in the discussion for 2QB leagues - OAK hemorrhages 22.1 FPPG to QBs and 25.3 to WRs.
Both Keenan Allen (upgrade) and Mike Williams (upgrade) put together solid fantasy outings in their dismantling at home. Williams pushed his touchdown streak to two games, while Allen was a yard short of breaking the century mark, something he’s done just twice this season. It’s a smash spot for the Chargers passing game, yet in Week 10 when these two teams met, it wasn’t taken advantage of. Look for that to change this week. Williams has thrived on the deep ball the last six weeks, possessing an ADoT of 23.1 yards. That’s good for the No. 1 spot for wideouts with over 10 catches in that span. Considering that OAK surrenders explosive pass plays (20+ yards) on a league worst 14% of plays (sharpfootballstats), the matchup should be considered a home run for Williams. Hunter Henry (upgrade) found his floor last week against the Vikings, busting with a 2-29-0 receiving line. Look for him to bounce back as well - OAK gives up 9.6 FPPG to TEs, second worst in the NFL.
RB Breakdown
Both Melvin Gordon (upgrade standard) and Austin Ekeler (upgrade PPR) found their floor against the Vikings. Gordon had perhaps his worst day as a pro, fumbling twice, and only producing 7-28-0 on the ground, and 5-36-0 receiving. Last time these two teams faced off, Gordon produced an RB1 day. Game-script should keep both backs involved, and Gordon is a good bet to find pay dirt. Consider both RB2’s in their preferred formats.
Score Prediction: Chargers 27, Raiders 17